UK election

Instead of Ed? No, but I think he'd have held the Tories to no overall control, and potentially stayed on as leader. Such an arrangement would have cast a huge question mark over Brexit as it would have broken any coalition that the Tories would have been relying on if David Miliband had denied them the 12 seats they needed to get a majority.

Now in fairness the Liberals had always supported a referendum, so would have had to go along with that bit. There's no way they could have remained in government with a pro-leave Tory partner though, so we'd still be having this election. I honestly think May is beatable, I don't think she's very good at all, but if Labour were given a blank sheet of paper and asked to design a team more incapable of doing so, then they wouldn't be far short of what they've got

Having said that, there are aspects of the manifesto I really quite like (and a few areas and personnel who scare me to death).

It's highly likely that David Miliband wouldn't be on a left wing agenda though, Ed was always more likely to embrace that, (it is of course mildly amusing that Theresa May has now adopted his idea of an energy bill cap which they chastised him for at the last election). If David Miliband were leader today, I'd think there's a fair chance he could beat May, not least of all because she'd be carrying the carnage of the way that her government broke up. I think it unlikely that she'd get a working majority, and I suspect we'd be looking at a Lib/ Lab pact with the SNP's role up in the air
 
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May`s social care policy now descending into absolute chaos...."strong and stable" my arse. Dread to think what an absolute shambles the Brexit negotiations will turn out to be. But at least foxhunting will return!
 
She will probably still win the election but her "strong and stable" nonsense has been exposed for the nonsense it is. She`s become a figure of ridicule overnight. "Weak and wobbly" as Michael Crick described her.
 
This would be an even bigger own goal than her predecessor managed with his Brexit own goal. Wouldn't you just laugh for the rest of the year if she completely misread the situation and managed to lose control of Westminster. Could it be that Corbyn has been pulling the wool over everyones eyes all this time while biding his time? We can but hope she does indeed implode in 3 weeks time.
 
archie said:
Mrs May bangs on about how this election is all about Brexit. Does that mean that 'ordinary, hard-working families' (and how condescending is that oft-used phrase, by the way) who are remainers should vote LibDem?
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Brexit will happen in March of 2019, regardless of whom in power. It's just a question of how?
Although I voted to leave, and think May will win the coming election, I can't vote for her because of the so-called Dementia Tax. Which means either Labour or Lib-Dems.
 
I was, as a remainer, going to vote LibDem to thank them for representing me for the past 11 months. However, I was very impressed with Corbyns speech today and will now, as usual, vote Labour. My daughter, who is a teacher, says that her job is becoming impossible due to the constant cuts and, as a family [even my son, who usually isn't interested in politics] we are all voting Labour. Anything is better than May, Johnson, Gove, Hunt and Rees Mogg. How can anyone honestly believe that Rees Mogg represents anyone other than himself and his posh friends?
 
Will be amazed if labour get much more than 34%,perhaps if we hadn't been stuck in this brexit nightmare would've been totally different ball game think labours vote will generally hold up but in those tight seats they will lose them all again.Think they will look a really good bet after this election,hopefully at some huge prices,although a long time to wait..
 
Edit. I took the links down now, as might need permission to share.
 
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gigilo said:
Will be amazed if labour get much more than 34%,perhaps if we hadn't been stuck in this brexit nightmare would've been totally different ball game think labours vote will generally hold up but in those tight seats they will lose them all again.Think they will look a really good bet after this election,hopefully at some huge prices,although a long time to wait..
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This Brexit nightmare is the very reason we're having an early election. If it wasn't held or remain won, we still have Cameron until 2020 as it's a fixed term.
 
Neal1962 said:
This Brexit nightmare is the very reason we're having an early election. If it wasn't held or remain won, we still have Cameron until 2020 as it's a fixed term.
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Perhaps I should've worded it differently,even taking the brexit scenario away I think may is so useless the result would've been different without corbyn leading,she looks a total disaster and I wouldn't even be surprised within the next two years if she resigned(health issues of course)!!:whistle:
 
I think you can argue about moral or pyrrhic victories and what might constitute a win in name only for the Tories. What if May is held to below 25? That's the sort of territory where the 'men in grey suits' will be stirring, as she'll be judged to have lost the debate and won only because the largely right wing media succeeded in establishing a very strong base camp for her

What I think has been particularly interesting to observe is the reaction to the respective manifestos. Labour's has energised and excited, largely because its falling on two generations who have no memory of the 1970's and 1980's. They're seeing something which is describing the issues that they identify with and pressures that are impacting their lifes. It's also offering them solutions which look plausible. For too long the Tories have neglected some ticking time bombs here, notably affordable housing. Labour's manifesto has connected much more than Theresa May's moral crusade against pornography and other non-issues like fox hunting.


The big problem for Labour however is the personnel on watch. I was left wondering how a charismatic young socialist would get on against her. In fact, I'll take that thought further and ask how even Ed Miliband running off the same platform would get on against her now?


Theresa May has never been an instinctive politician, she's not a communicator, and she doesn't energise. She's socially awkward, and isn't at home as a campaigner. She's not so much the last horcrux of Margaret Thatcher as she is the grey lady to John Major's grey man, with the puritanical views of Oliver Cromwell thrown into the witches brew for good measure. With the possible exception of Diane Abbott, Jeremy Corbyn would be very high on anyone's pick your ideal opponent list. If she can't slaughter him then I suspect she's politically on borrowed time. She needs to win by at least 50
 
They were talking 200 not so long ago,will be nearer 80..
 
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Rogue poll suggesting torys only 3% ahead,looking at the Ashcroft predictions where he goes into the minutest detail of every constituency he has almost 200 majority could be some great betting opprtunitys on the torys if these obvious fake polls keep circulating..
 
gigilo said:
Rogue poll suggesting torys only 3% ahead,looking at the Ashcroft predictions where he goes into the minutest detail of every constituency he has almost 200 majority could be some great betting opprtunitys on the torys if these obvious fake polls keep circulating..
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Corbyn now 7/2 for PM. Surely too short, though May had made a proper balls up of the campaign.

IG's seats market suggesting Tories win around 367 seats, a majority of 84.
 
According to an explanation on Newsnight last night the big differences in poll results are largely down to the assumptions made about how many poll respondents will actually turn up on election day and vote. It seems the 'rogue' YouGov poll is assuming a much higher turnout by 18-24 year olds than other polling organisations.
 
I read that in an article by the excellent Matt Singh. Basically the polls showing a narrow lead calculate turnout based on the respondent's stated likelihood of voting. The polls with the bigger leads use historical turnout figures for each demographic.

Assuming Corbyn has mobilised the youth vote to a greater degree than previous Labour leaders the real result is likely to be somewhere in between.

Would be somewhat ironic if the youngsters buggered up the referendum by not voting, then buggered up the election by voting.
 
We know that about 500,000 young people registered who hadn't previously done so (or something like that) which is a step in itself. We also know that when polling has been caught out in the past its usually been as a result of an unforeseen paradigm dynamic. The stage is set exactly. Quite where these young voters are however, is going to be critical. I can't see them having any sway in rural seats. I'd guess we might see them surfacing in big city suburbs (living with parents) and university towns
 
500k registered but how many people turned 18 since the last election (in other words there is always a new cohort of voters).

Personally I wish they'd change it back to 21. You shouldn't be able to vote until you've paid some tax and have some understanding of how the world works.
 
You'd be quite happy to send a 20 yeard old to fight a war and die for you though, but don't want to let them vote?

Put them in charge of gun, but heaven forbid they're trusted with a pencil
 
In addition to Benny's idea, I think the right to vote should stop at 65.......or at least there should be some sort of 'Curmudgeonly Old Cu*nt' assessment you have to go through, before you're allowed.

Anyone beyond pensionable age who confesses to regularly reading the Express or Mail in anything other than an ironic way, should immediately be removed from the Electoral Register..........as should those holding an office-bearing position at any municipal golf club.
 
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