Colin Phillips
At the Start
Oy!, Grass, behave your rucking self!
UK election
- Thread starter littlelad
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Grasshopper
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Col, you would obviously sail through any test, and get to keep your vote. 
Colin Phillips
At the Start
.....now what do I with it?
Grasshopper
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Speaking only for myself, I'm hoping for a surprise Hung Parliament.
I would laugh for a week if May somehow managed to lose this election i.e. fail to get a majority. It would serve her right too, for the duplicitous and cynical way she called it in the first place. It would also have the added benefit of helping water-down the suicidal hard-Brexit, that the cleverer-than-thou Tories/Hard-Right, would impose upon us.
Grasshopper's Quick-Capsule Election Debate Review
Whilst last night's debate often descended into the usual rammy of speaking-over-your-opponent nonsense, and scored-highly in the spin/bull-sh*it/platitude/faux-sincerity department, there were nevertheless some fair performances.
Corbyn, I thought, did surprisingly well, and to be fair to Rudd, she did about as well as you could, given May was cowering behind a curtain somewhere, wetting herself throughout.
Farron was just about OK, though I'm not sure about his down-the-pub-having-a-natter-over-a-bitter approach. Effectively sitting opposite him as he spoke into camera, the exchange felt a bit like a Derek & Clive routine with all the joy and swearing removed.
The Yesser dough-ball did OK....though I naturally set the bar low with him, and Paul Nuttall at least had the decency to make it crystal-clear to everyone, that he is a complete arsehole.
More impressive was Caroline Lucas. Lucid and thoughtful answers, and I'm a big fan of their approach on renewables. It's just a shame that they're instinctively anti-racing, and so collegiate and inclusive, that the yoghurt-knitting, Yoplais-fiddlers get as much say, as some of the more pragmatic members. Nice fields and clean water, but fu*ck-all to eat but beans, and that's no kind of existence.
Most impressive of all, though, was the bird from Plaid Cymru, for managing to get the word 'Wales' into every single sentence. She is hard-core. Wales.
I would laugh for a week if May somehow managed to lose this election i.e. fail to get a majority. It would serve her right too, for the duplicitous and cynical way she called it in the first place. It would also have the added benefit of helping water-down the suicidal hard-Brexit, that the cleverer-than-thou Tories/Hard-Right, would impose upon us.
Grasshopper's Quick-Capsule Election Debate Review
Whilst last night's debate often descended into the usual rammy of speaking-over-your-opponent nonsense, and scored-highly in the spin/bull-sh*it/platitude/faux-sincerity department, there were nevertheless some fair performances.
Corbyn, I thought, did surprisingly well, and to be fair to Rudd, she did about as well as you could, given May was cowering behind a curtain somewhere, wetting herself throughout.
Farron was just about OK, though I'm not sure about his down-the-pub-having-a-natter-over-a-bitter approach. Effectively sitting opposite him as he spoke into camera, the exchange felt a bit like a Derek & Clive routine with all the joy and swearing removed.
The Yesser dough-ball did OK....though I naturally set the bar low with him, and Paul Nuttall at least had the decency to make it crystal-clear to everyone, that he is a complete arsehole.
More impressive was Caroline Lucas. Lucid and thoughtful answers, and I'm a big fan of their approach on renewables. It's just a shame that they're instinctively anti-racing, and so collegiate and inclusive, that the yoghurt-knitting, Yoplais-fiddlers get as much say, as some of the more pragmatic members. Nice fields and clean water, but fu*ck-all to eat but beans, and that's no kind of existence.
Most impressive of all, though, was the bird from Plaid Cymru, for managing to get the word 'Wales' into every single sentence. She is hard-core. Wales.
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BennyB
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Not really in favour of sending kids to war either tbh.
I, too, am getting quite excited at the thought of a coalition. It will mean that the rich people who instigated brexit to get richer will find that the money 'saved' from being in the EU will, instead of going to them [as was the plan] actually go to the people they promised it to. I know my little fantasy will probably only last for another week but, in the meantime there's a spring in my step and a smile on my face that has been absent for the past year.....brexit was, imo a protest vote against austerity and this election seems to be going the same way. The Conservatives, for once chose the wrong slogan; I can't quite believe the vitriol aimed at them at the moment but, have to say I'm thoroughly enjoying it.....
I think tactically they were highly questionable too. I mean, did they really think that exposing Theresa May to the public for 6 weeks was going to make us warm to her. IIRC 3 weeks is the minimum you can call, why didn't they do that?
It will probably depend on whether or not the people sense that a coalition restores 'Remain'. There is simply no way that the SNP, and Liberals will take the UK out of the EU. They'll bring the coalition down before they do that. Corbyn simply has his hands tied if he wants to form a government. For his part he's noticeably been refusing to unequivocally commit to full Brexit and seems to be trying to build himself some wriggle room. The EU for their part have a long history of cobbling together compromises, and with President Trump seemingly breathing heavily on them, probably wouldn't mind the UK back in the fold
It's a contrast with Ed Miliband actually who was undermined due in no small part to the influence that coalition partners would have on him. Corbyn actually looks more attractive to voters for the same reason. People are nervous about letting Corbyn have free rein, but if he's dependent on a coalition there's a limit as to how much damage he could do
It will probably depend on whether or not the people sense that a coalition restores 'Remain'. There is simply no way that the SNP, and Liberals will take the UK out of the EU. They'll bring the coalition down before they do that. Corbyn simply has his hands tied if he wants to form a government. For his part he's noticeably been refusing to unequivocally commit to full Brexit and seems to be trying to build himself some wriggle room. The EU for their part have a long history of cobbling together compromises, and with President Trump seemingly breathing heavily on them, probably wouldn't mind the UK back in the fold
It's a contrast with Ed Miliband actually who was undermined due in no small part to the influence that coalition partners would have on him. Corbyn actually looks more attractive to voters for the same reason. People are nervous about letting Corbyn have free rein, but if he's dependent on a coalition there's a limit as to how much damage he could do
Grasshopper
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Corbyn seemed pretty unequivocal about retaining membership of the Open Market, during the debate last night, Warbler.
I'm resigned to the fact that Brexit - despite it being by far the worst option available to us - is an inevitability. It's now about containment, and staying in the Open Market would at least help stave-off the economic Armageddon we'd face, if we were to place ourselves outside of it.
I'm almost at the point of absolving all other parties of their remaining sins, if they are prepared to stand behind a policy that will ensure that we retain access. If that takes a coalition to achieve - even one in which Corbyn is the Prime Minister - I'd get on with it. No matter how badly Corbyn fu*cks-up the economy by accident, it will be a hill of beans compared to the economic carnage that will be unleashed, when the Tories take their leap-of-faith.
I'm resigned to the fact that Brexit - despite it being by far the worst option available to us - is an inevitability. It's now about containment, and staying in the Open Market would at least help stave-off the economic Armageddon we'd face, if we were to place ourselves outside of it.
I'm almost at the point of absolving all other parties of their remaining sins, if they are prepared to stand behind a policy that will ensure that we retain access. If that takes a coalition to achieve - even one in which Corbyn is the Prime Minister - I'd get on with it. No matter how badly Corbyn fu*cks-up the economy by accident, it will be a hill of beans compared to the economic carnage that will be unleashed, when the Tories take their leap-of-faith.
That's what I mean. Theresa May's position is one of "no deal is better than a bad deal" which Amber Rudd repeated last night. Corbyn would probably accept a Norwegian deal and make this a two step divorce, since you can leave the EEA at 12 months notice at a time of your choosing, and with the Norwegian terms already agreed it becomes difficult for the EU to start introducing all these arbitary terms and conditions. However, so long as his government depends on the Libs and the SNP he won't be able to leave at all, or at the very least, he'll have to put a final referendum to the people (which he could always sabotage by negotiating a palpably disadvantageous one)
A coalition of chaos/ progressive alliance/ rainbow nation (call it what you will) probably kills off Brexit I reckon .... or perhaps Ken Clarke ends up holding the balance of power! We'll see if there's any smart pro-remain conservatives who are prepared to vote for a coalition as a one off measure in the knowledge that if Corbyn tries to go through with Brexit his government will fall anyway, and if he doesn't then we'll stay inside the union
The chances are the treaty is going to have to amended at some point in the near future again (as it always has been periodically), as its palpably clear that the European Council is increasingly out of touch with the people of Europe and they're running a risk. Keep an eye on Italy!
Grasshopper
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A final referendum is exactly what we need, imo.
If May's personal election performance is any measure, then we are going to get royally fu*cked-over in negotiations. It's bad enough that we ahave no cards, and will more-or-less be dictated to. It's even worse when the person negotiating on our behalf, has been shown to be a complete and utter bottler, whenever the heat is on. It's too important for her alone to decide what's in our best-interest, and we should be allowed to take our view on the deal that's being offered.
I imagine it could get unpleasant were a second-referendum to overturn the result of the first. I'd imagine Leavers would feel cheated, and there could be quite a lot of civil unrest off the back of it. There's basically no good outcome - it's all downside.
If May's personal election performance is any measure, then we are going to get royally fu*cked-over in negotiations. It's bad enough that we ahave no cards, and will more-or-less be dictated to. It's even worse when the person negotiating on our behalf, has been shown to be a complete and utter bottler, whenever the heat is on. It's too important for her alone to decide what's in our best-interest, and we should be allowed to take our view on the deal that's being offered.
I imagine it could get unpleasant were a second-referendum to overturn the result of the first. I'd imagine Leavers would feel cheated, and there could be quite a lot of civil unrest off the back of it. There's basically no good outcome - it's all downside.
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On a kind of indirect but semi-related matter, Leeds University have been maintaining an historical ranking of best Prime Ministers (similar to the thing American universities do with their Pressie's). David Cameron was ranked the third worst last time I checked their update. All of this stems to back to him, and specifically when he stupidly told James Landale that he wouldn't seek a third term (at a childrens football match of all bloody places)
They're badly-advised to keep using that slogan.
I don't think the British public are taking kindly to negotiations of this magnitude, being likened by our political masters, to some sort of card game, where if we can't win, we should just walk out the E.U casino.
Boris Johnson wrote two essays before the referendum, one on stay, one on leave. He went with the essay that said, "the wind is blowing this way."
David Cameron spent years criticizing Blair and Brown for being in the E.U's pocket, but then became PM, got pally with Angela Merkel, so actually argued to stay in, even though he was calling a referendum on whether to leave. Theresa May wanted in, but now leads out.
I know its a complicated issue but they've made themselves look like a bunch of self-serving, political poker loving, twats.
We're probably better letting Paul Nuttell take over negotiations, or just not see any of this through at all.
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And Gordon Browns decision not to call the election when he had Cameron on the ropes, imho.
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gigilo
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1.23 tory majority unbelievable price thought this would be 1.05,shy tories telling lies in polls whats new? exactly the same as last election majority will surely be between 50-80 and could even be beyond that it would be the biggest political turnaround ever were they not to get a majority.Lets see the polls after this weekend I can see an easy 8% lead by Tuesday..
BennyB
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I very much hope you're right Gig.
Grasshopper
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I'm not convinced the last election has any bearing on the matter. That was pre-Brexit, and it's a different dynamic now.
I'd be careful about placing too much faith in the polls being skewed by 'shy Tories'. They could quite easily be offset by the large swathes of Pensioners - who are normally banker votes - who now view the them with a degree of suspicion, following the Dementia Tax debacle. That might not stop a Tory majority, but it might put a dent in one, and I'd be quite happy to be a layer at 1.05.
Overall, May's performance in this election has been incredibly-poor, and that may also count for something.
It's well-known that she works with a tight-knit team of advisers on policy, and this Manifesto - indeed this election - is very-much in-her-name, so she needs to be accountable for it. But where is the substance?
In terms of the headline policies, as well as the Dementia Tax falling-apart on Day One, we have had precisely zero detail on how the Tories will handle Brexit - the single biggest issue we are going to face in the next Parliament. We're simply asked to have faith.
That's faith in a Prime Minister who apparently amends policy at the first sign of dissent, who shamefully ducked-out of the only televised Leaders debate of an election that she called, and who has looked awkward and evasive in just about every interview she has conducted since the race kicked-off. And that's without mentioning the constant repetition of the 'Strong & Stable' platitude, which - presumably - she expects us to unquestioningly assimilate as wisdom; like unblinking fu*cking robots.
Unlike many Jocks, I don't have hatred of the Tories hard-wired into my DNA (because that would also make me an unblinking robot), and I view them in much the same way as I do the other parties; some good policies, some bad, some nasty, some stupid, dreadful suits, terrible haircuts etc. On this basis, I was prepared to give May a chance when she was elected Tory Leader. I'm still glad she won it, as the alternatives were too ghastly to contemplate, but ever since she became Prime Minister, I've seen someone getting more-and-more out of their depth, with each day that passes.
As a Prime Minister and a Leader, I reckon she is not only an abject disappointment, but a fraud too. In my view, she is almost certainly incapable of getting us anything remotely close to an acceptable Brexit deal, and if I do have any faith in her, it's that she will quite happily walk away from Brexit with no deal, and blame it all on the EU when the country starts to go down the toilet.
A handbrake needs put on that kind of ambition, and I hope enough people wake-up before the election, to realise where this is all heading, if she gets her majority.
This might have rambled a bit away from the main point.
I'd be careful about placing too much faith in the polls being skewed by 'shy Tories'. They could quite easily be offset by the large swathes of Pensioners - who are normally banker votes - who now view the them with a degree of suspicion, following the Dementia Tax debacle. That might not stop a Tory majority, but it might put a dent in one, and I'd be quite happy to be a layer at 1.05.
Overall, May's performance in this election has been incredibly-poor, and that may also count for something.
It's well-known that she works with a tight-knit team of advisers on policy, and this Manifesto - indeed this election - is very-much in-her-name, so she needs to be accountable for it. But where is the substance?
In terms of the headline policies, as well as the Dementia Tax falling-apart on Day One, we have had precisely zero detail on how the Tories will handle Brexit - the single biggest issue we are going to face in the next Parliament. We're simply asked to have faith.
That's faith in a Prime Minister who apparently amends policy at the first sign of dissent, who shamefully ducked-out of the only televised Leaders debate of an election that she called, and who has looked awkward and evasive in just about every interview she has conducted since the race kicked-off. And that's without mentioning the constant repetition of the 'Strong & Stable' platitude, which - presumably - she expects us to unquestioningly assimilate as wisdom; like unblinking fu*cking robots.
Unlike many Jocks, I don't have hatred of the Tories hard-wired into my DNA (because that would also make me an unblinking robot), and I view them in much the same way as I do the other parties; some good policies, some bad, some nasty, some stupid, dreadful suits, terrible haircuts etc. On this basis, I was prepared to give May a chance when she was elected Tory Leader. I'm still glad she won it, as the alternatives were too ghastly to contemplate, but ever since she became Prime Minister, I've seen someone getting more-and-more out of their depth, with each day that passes.
As a Prime Minister and a Leader, I reckon she is not only an abject disappointment, but a fraud too. In my view, she is almost certainly incapable of getting us anything remotely close to an acceptable Brexit deal, and if I do have any faith in her, it's that she will quite happily walk away from Brexit with no deal, and blame it all on the EU when the country starts to go down the toilet.
A handbrake needs put on that kind of ambition, and I hope enough people wake-up before the election, to realise where this is all heading, if she gets her majority.
This might have rambled a bit away from the main point.
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gigilo
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I agree with everything you've said I said earlier on the thread she has looked a disaster waiting to happen and she certainly won't be around much longer after the election,just every single poll i've ever seen since watching politics in recent times has followed the exact same pattern and if you go by those it's not even close.What I can't understand is why the polls should be closer after the poor results in local elections which labour have always done well in yet their worst results in decades yet a couple of months on they are now apparently gaining makes absolutely no sense to me.Another thing I wouldn't rely on is the young vote,another thing that could be distorting the polls,they won't even get out of bed probably won't even remember the right day just like the referendum..
Grasshopper
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Maybe so, gigolo.........though worth bearing in mind that it wasn't so long ago that Polls were wildly-out as well. If I recall correctly, Remain briefly traded at around 1.06 late-evening on the day of the EU referendum (we all know how that turned-out), and Trump was a laughing-stock price at three-figures, to be next President. My point is that you can only trust the Polls so far; regardless of whether they're upholding your position, or working against it.
Momentum, or lack thereof, is surely also a factor - insofar as the countdown to the Polling Date is concerned. All of a sudden, Corbyn doesn't look like the terrorist-supporting, Commie demon, we thought we knew before the campaign began. Generally, he has come across as quite straightforward, lucid and honest, which has done a lot to neutralise the image that the Hard-Right want to project onto him. OK, he might be towards the shabby-end of the spectrum when it comes to ideal PM material, but that Hard-Right image just looks like a ridiculous caricature now. Corbyn is no longer 'scary'.
Conversely, Teresa May has somehow managed to step on every rake in the garden, making a mockery of her claims to strength and stability. There's only so many pratfalls you can have, before people start to think it's funny-peculiar, rather than funny-ha-ha. To be honest, I'm not convinced that current Polling methodologies necessarily reflect the increased cynicism of voters, nor does it reflect the ease with which many voters are now prepared to cross the political-divide, if they hear something they don't like from their 'usual' party.
It's also unwise, imo, to entirely write-off the young as too idle or indolent to come out and vote. Again, it's a post-Brexit world, and it's the young more than anyone, who are going to be the most impacted by our impending exit. They are going to have to live with that decision for a lot longer than the majority of those who made it for them, and now the perils are starting to crystallise, I sense a change in motivation in young people. Clearly, there are going to be those who simply can't be arsed, but I suspect that voting numbers amongst 18-24yos, will be significantly higher than expectations.
Again, though, none of that might be enough to prevent a Tory majority.
Momentum, or lack thereof, is surely also a factor - insofar as the countdown to the Polling Date is concerned. All of a sudden, Corbyn doesn't look like the terrorist-supporting, Commie demon, we thought we knew before the campaign began. Generally, he has come across as quite straightforward, lucid and honest, which has done a lot to neutralise the image that the Hard-Right want to project onto him. OK, he might be towards the shabby-end of the spectrum when it comes to ideal PM material, but that Hard-Right image just looks like a ridiculous caricature now. Corbyn is no longer 'scary'.
Conversely, Teresa May has somehow managed to step on every rake in the garden, making a mockery of her claims to strength and stability. There's only so many pratfalls you can have, before people start to think it's funny-peculiar, rather than funny-ha-ha. To be honest, I'm not convinced that current Polling methodologies necessarily reflect the increased cynicism of voters, nor does it reflect the ease with which many voters are now prepared to cross the political-divide, if they hear something they don't like from their 'usual' party.
It's also unwise, imo, to entirely write-off the young as too idle or indolent to come out and vote. Again, it's a post-Brexit world, and it's the young more than anyone, who are going to be the most impacted by our impending exit. They are going to have to live with that decision for a lot longer than the majority of those who made it for them, and now the perils are starting to crystallise, I sense a change in motivation in young people. Clearly, there are going to be those who simply can't be arsed, but I suspect that voting numbers amongst 18-24yos, will be significantly higher than expectations.
Again, though, none of that might be enough to prevent a Tory majority.
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gigilo
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The question time tonight was corbyn's great opportunity,was very biased with torys asking may questions to which we knew the answers then corbyn gets given questions by same people very very strange whatever ground they were making has been completely reversed I xpect the gap to appear after that,can actually get 1/8 on torys getting most seats which just seems incredible after what I've just watched!!
Since when did the greatest problem facing this country at this moment in time be whether or not we have a PM who will instigate WW3 [and the end of life as we know it?]. As with the referendum, people are being encouraged to worry about things that they probably didn't think much about before. Why worry about nurses wages/schools having no text books/teaching assistants etc when what we should be worrying about is nuclear war. I must point out that I haven't seen QT but have just heard comments on newsnight saying that Theresa May won hands down. No BBC bias there then [not]....
gigilo
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She didn't win she was awful corbyn was even worse,in saying that I don't know what's going on with the questions asked and how they were decided but was blatently slanted against corbyn very very strange,no one looking in though who is an undecided etc will vote for someone who doesn't say they are willing to press the button it just made him look ridiculous.It couldn't have been any worse Friday peak viewing and then on newsnight,he could have made a massive impact tonight with may being her awful self yet he blew it,although like I said the questioning was very strange..
BennyB
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May shortened ever so slightly from 1.25 to 1.22 to be PM after the election.
Grasshopper
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Spot on, moehat.
The public are being conned into thinking that the Nuclear Button issue is relevant, when it's nothing of the sort. Rounding on Corbyn on this topic, is like berating someone who lives in the middle of the desert, for not having iceberg insurance, and calling it justification to burn his house down. It's given far more prominence than it merits, insofar as this Election goes, and in terms of our priorities, it simply isn't one. That said, it's the biggest stick they have to beat Corbyn with, so it's no huge surprise that the subject-matter gets far more air-time than its relevance warrants.
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BennyB
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To be fair the nuclear button issue is more of a symbolic one than anything. Would our leader be prepared to stand up for us if we came under attack?
If anyone tried to attack the UK Jeremy Corbyn would invite them into number 10 for tea and biscuits and a meaningful discussion.
If anyone tried to attack the UK Jeremy Corbyn would invite them into number 10 for tea and biscuits and a meaningful discussion.
clappers61
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I think Jeremy Corbyn has completely missed the point of MAD. Having nuclear weapons has absolutely nothing to do with killing anyone, or should be an enemy of the pacifist. Its simply a mind play between nations that has now stopped us having a world war every 20 years. The whole point of the mind play is that anyone knows that if they attack us with such weapons they will be mutually destructed. The idea of one side saying they would never use such weapons, automatically breaks the MAD mind play. For someone to admit to the whole world that they won't maintain that mind game threat, means that person will never lead this country.
I always think that in regards to whether these weapons cost too much, could be measured by a simple question to a Japan of 1945. If Japan was asked how much they would have paid to have held the MAD mind play in 1945, I'm pretty sure they would not care about the cost to prevent two nuclear bombs being dropped on their cities. To those who think having nuclear weapons is not important, I'll ask, do you think ourselves and the USA would have nuclear bombed Japan in 1945 if they had thought that 10 minutes later, London and New York would have been liquidised.
I watched the reaction by one young lady last night after Corbyn had completely blown the election over this issue, she clearly did not understand why we have nuclear weapons, many people don't it appears. Having nuclear weapons has nothing to with wanting to kill anyone, its the best peace keeper, with a proven track record of success, over a very long period of time.
I always think that in regards to whether these weapons cost too much, could be measured by a simple question to a Japan of 1945. If Japan was asked how much they would have paid to have held the MAD mind play in 1945, I'm pretty sure they would not care about the cost to prevent two nuclear bombs being dropped on their cities. To those who think having nuclear weapons is not important, I'll ask, do you think ourselves and the USA would have nuclear bombed Japan in 1945 if they had thought that 10 minutes later, London and New York would have been liquidised.
I watched the reaction by one young lady last night after Corbyn had completely blown the election over this issue, she clearly did not understand why we have nuclear weapons, many people don't it appears. Having nuclear weapons has nothing to with wanting to kill anyone, its the best peace keeper, with a proven track record of success, over a very long period of time.
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