What are you backing Today? Part 2

Marb said:
Later on the card I have taken Atrium who could quickly develop into an English Cambridgeshire horse by my reckoning. I think he has form with some very good handicappers. In the same race I see Master Richard and Point Lynas renew their rivalry after the last day at York where they had a tussle in what was effectively a two horse race for about a mile. I hope Atrium can show his class though and I can't back them all so just hope Master Richard doesn't win after I did him at York
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Having just watched it I do like the turn of foot he showed especially on soft ground. He could improve for the extra trip at Newmarket aswell.
 
I've dutched Pocket the Profit and First Folio at Yarmouth Thursday. The former has been absent since the Derby meeting and ideally needs a stiff 6 but 11/2 is ok. The latter has a claimer on and this is a step down in class - Bet 365 were going 7/2 earlier and that was just too big.
 
Just a couple of sickness insurance bets today (no form studied) at Ayr in the Kilkerran Cup (3.30):

Cockalorum 16/1, 5 places (no BOG) and 4 places (BOG) - more than likely just not as good as he was but they've booked Curtis for him today so I'm expecting some kind of improvement on his recent runs.

Faylaq, 11/1 (win only, enough to recoup season's losses on him) - slightly unlucky last time not to have been closer and previous reasons for liking him still apply.

It would be quite a competitive wee race with more triers than usual for a midweek.
 
Ochil House 7:30 Chelmsford. This one is 3/1 atm down from 10/1 overnight so missed the boat. Still taken it, though. OH ran up in distance, but also up 2 in class to Class 2 for first handicap run at Haydock and was found out. Now down to Class 5 today and Buick up.
 
Like this one,BJ - slowly away last 2 outings, first time blinds today. Poor draw but has the pilot to sort it.
Just got 9/2 with Sportsbook,too.
 
Some interesting races at Newbury on Saturday.

A nice sprint with Manaccan, Tis Marvellous, Mitbaahy and a couple in Diligent Harry and Chil Chil stepping down in trip. Tis M is second fav but he gets beat in this usually (not enough of a test for him.)

Siskany back in the Legacy Cup. Should win.

A 10f handicap that has low key triggered me already. I've backed Hamaki with a claimer on and the front three in the market are all Godolphin (including Warren Point who's Goodwood win has not worked out well.
 
The Silver Cup I find interesting.

I am sweet on Asad Jumeriah who I think if his trainer can get him in peak condition, (looked lethargic the last day) can run a big race, and Outsider pointed out to me he is six pounds better off with Devils Angel for their run against each other when finishing first and second two starts ago.

I'm looking to have what is for me a good bet on Asad each way. Something to bring me a four figure return were he to win.

Snash could go close and Devils Angel, Edward Cornelius or Zargun could out run their odds too. I'd have that lot for my shortist.

Edit - Good Earth another for my shortlist.
 
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Saturday

Newbury

2.15 Bar Mitbaahy and Manaccan who look progressive types, Look Out Louis is the most interesting horse in the race for in form trainer Julie Camacho. He has been a revelation this season and kept on improving when winning good handicaps over five furlongs.

Now is the time to step up in class to group 3 company and with only 6lbs on offical ratings between Look Out Louis and the other two I mentioned, I reckon Look Out Louis can go very close tomorrow.

Over at Ayr in the Silver Cup I will stick with Asad Jumeriah even though I have a shortlist of six horses. I just think he has a big handicap in him.

In the Ayr Gold Cup I think it looks very open. I'm going to take a chance on Gis A Sub. He ran a respectable 9th of 22 horses the last day which was his first run since being gelded. With some natural improvement I hope he can run into a place.

An each way patent on these three for me, see how I do, wish me luck!

Good luck all tomorrow hope someone has a good win.
 
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I've gone in pretty heftily on Mitbaahy at 7/1 to 4 places. I think he is the most likely winner and the price is far too long.

The each-way double with Khanjar is also on.
 
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Like Mitbaahy as well - i actually backed him for the Flying Five last week at 33s ap and was gutted when he was pulled. This is far easier although I do fear Chil Chil and Diligent Harry stepping down in trip. I've backed him in a single and an ew trix with Siskany and Hamaki. The former looks to only have Dubai Future to beat and the latter is still well handicapped with a claimer on and I think 12f stretched his stamina at Ascot the last day.
 
I will take Hamaki on with Majestic.

This one's been slowly progressing running consistently well all along and hopefully he'll be fine over this new trip of 10F tomorrow. I think Rob Hornby is a good jockey booking and Majestic could go close here probably from right up with the pace. Hoping for a good run for my money. Fingers crossed.

Good luck all forumites with their bets tomorrow. Let's just hope someone wins something!
 
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The rest of my [rushed] synopses for the races I looked at:

Ayr 1.55 - While I’m fully aware – and wary of – Euchen Glen’s best form, I think Phantom Flight (13/8) is the right favourite so no bet.

Nwb 1.40 - I’ll probably leave this race alone. The top three on ratings are all Godolphins but Siskany hasn’t run for nearly seven months, Kemari doesn’t exactly have the profile of a winning machine and Dubai Future’s Wolferton win, for which he went up to 117 from 112 might not be strong form. And I can’t fancy anything to beat them. The Godolphins combine at 4/6 at current best odds so I might think about that as it seems more than fair.

Nwb 2.15 - I only looked at the ones I think can be involved. Chil Chil had been just off her best this season. Tis Marvellous has the best overall form but isn’t the most consistent. Mitbaahy was slowly away last time and reportedly never travelled. His previous run was a career best so he’s probably the percentage call at around 4/1. The other two might be best in handicaps.

Nwb 3.25 - This is always a good race. I have to back Palavecino (40/1, drifting so might be 50s or 66s in the morning). He won first time up this calendar year off 101 but has done next to nothing since. His second run, though, was in the Coronation Cup, his next in the Wolferton and then he didn’t run too badly at Goodwood before disappointing at Sandown. I think he’s better than this mark; he was rated 109 last summer. It’s otherwise extremely competitive and considering the likes of Godolphin, Haggas and a few other operations have good records in it, it suggests it’s a coveted race. I’m going to take Ottoman Fleet (7/1) as the main bet with a smaller one on Majestic (14/1), who I think could improve a fair bit for the step up from a mile.

Nwm 3.51 - The difficulty with this race is knowing what is going for it and what is prepping for the big one. Last year a rating in the low 80s made the cut so it’s not as if anything is going to need a penalty to get in, bar maybe the bottom weight. Themaxwecan finally returned to form last time but is still very well in on his older form so might be able to afford to pick up a penalty (4lbs) en route to the Ces itself. If I have a bet it will probably be him [taken].
 
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