What are you backing Today? Part 2

My point re Irish handicaps stand. 1/2 there for the Brits and Safe Voyage has got nowhere near the winning post over here this season.
 
I can't recall what your original point was, Euro, but I'm not sure that race offered evidence.

IAG was on a curve and SV had dropped a long way. It was only a question of time before it started to stage some kind of a revival in form.

Irish handicaps, especially the Premier ones, tend to be worth more, have more runners and are therefore statistically more difficult to win so the form is entitled to be viewed very positively. (Either that or Irish trainers campaign them far too honestly...)

I think the British go over only when they think they have one to go to war with.

I hope you stuck by your theory and backed either/both of them.
 
Euronymous said:
My point re Irish handicaps stand. 1/2 there for the Brits and Safe Voyage has got nowhere near the winning post over here this season.
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He was only beaten about 2L by I'm a gambler and Rhoscolyn last time and was better off at the weights today.
He was rated 112/114 last july.my big bet today and probably beaten by the draw.
 
I've been all over Vadeni like a rash.

It does seem odd like I'm the only one backing it, so it could drift, but I took 2.76-2.81 on the machine
and am hapy at that.
 
barjon said:
It’s what a top race should look like, isn’t it. Talk about strength in depth. Every time I settle on one I find good reasons not to, so I’m just going with Mishriff, too, since I’ve always liked him. Just a fun bet, though.
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more fun watching paint dry imo:lol: I have a feeling this could end up very tactical and a small bet on Broome to hold on to 3rd from Mishriff who IMO has gone at 5/1 could be a fun bet.

But I am 100% in the Vadeni camp now the ground has plenty cut in it
 
That I'm A Gambler I backed earlier this season when he won at Beverley.

He's now won 3 of his last 4 races at big prices including at Glorious Goodwood.

Connections must be delighted.

Wish I'd kept backing him!
 
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reet hard said:
I've had a decent punt on Thunder Kiss (3.10) as I reckon she improved lto, and today's trip will suit better.
If the ground is bad,JG might pull Mishriff and wait for Ascot. Top race, regardless.
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Oh the pain Reet.i feel for you.hard luck mate.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I think Onesto should be in the front three in the market and 10/1 is still big. However, I'm playing safe with a hefty each-way on Mishriff (3 places) at 4/1 BOG.

I'm not sure Mishriff has had hard races [plural, I mean] or that he needs better ground. He was being trained all season for the International (in my opinion) and did have a hard race there but I'm happy to write off his previous runs as building blocks. He does need to be over that York run and there's also the chance he'll be slow to break but he won on heavy as a 2yo and 3yo (highest RPR of that season), so I'm not worried about the ground. Might he even improve for returning to softer ground?

It's a good race, though, and I'll even be happy with a win for Luxembourg as I'm on him for the Arc.
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Mishriff maybe not over York after all so a bit of a sore one but the blow softened by the knowledge that I've got 20/1 Luxembourg for the Arc.
 
Unlucky Euro couldn't agree more about this flat season, thought for a minute you were home and dry

I hear you though one minute I'm up the next I right back to where I started.

Every penny I won the other day plus a bit gone just like that:(
 
That's the Vadeni bubble well and truly burst.
Mishriff, for mine, was never put in the race seriously, with just one smack turning in. Be interesting to see where he turns up next.
 
Stop making excuss for the horses Reet..what does that mean "never put in the race seriously" the horse like the rest was off for his life.

The winner has run to about a 122 Vadeni 120 and Mishriff about a 119 which goes to show Baaeed's 135 is a joke.
 
The fav ran well, the jockey is just poor in that he loves making a late challenge from the rear. Pasquier was in a similar position early doors but figured out he needed to be closer heading into the straight. That's the tax you pay when you back a Soumi horse.
 
I feel the pain of those finishing second, I've had the last 3!!

Not as bad as York this season when I had seconds at 66/2, 33/1, 25/1, 22/1 and 20/1!!

I've gone for tenebrism and concert hall in the next for the benefit of those looking for a forecast.
 
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Tanlic said:
the horse like the rest was off for his life.

The winner has run to about a 122 Vadeni 120 and Mishriff about a 119 which goes to show Baaeed's 135 is a joke.
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And you're off your rocker if you can't see Baaeed's much better than you rate him.:lol:
 
Some interesting races on ITV tomorrow.

Kinross is a nice horse on his day but maybe a tad short now? I have taken a chance on New Energy who looks a smash up job in the betting market and has some form from earlier this season which would give him a good chance. I doubt his Irish trainer and connections would bring him over here for this if they didn't think he could mix it up with these.

Later on the card I have taken Atrium who could quickly develop into an English Cambridgeshire horse by my reckoning. I think he has form with some very good handicappers. In the same race I see Master Richard and Point Lynas renew their rivalry after the last day at York where they had a tussle in what was effectively a two horse race for about a mile. I hope Atrium can show his class though and I can't back them all so just hope Master Richard doesn't win after I did him at York.

Inchicore is a worthy fav in the next race. A lightly raced filly and the cut in the ground will benefit her. A good staying on fourth the last day in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock and I believe there's more to come. At 2/1 or bigger with Hollie Doyle on I wouldn't put anyone off. She actually has an entry in the Irish Ceserwitch in a couple of weeks. Lets see what she does tomorrow.

I have had a pure guessers bet on French Claim for trainer Paddy Tworney in the classic. He is sending some very useful horses over here and sooner or later you feel he will hit the target. Haskoy is well backed on the early markets and fascinating to see how she goes under Frankie Dettori but I prefer French Claim at the price I took earlier.
 
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My summaries (written on Friday):

2.10 - This is a well up to scratch renewal with several holding adjusted ratings that would entitle them to win an average renewal. I’m just going to take the top two [in my ratings table, Nomadic Empire and Significantly] and Count D’orsay plus Atalanta’s Boy against the field and hope for the best. At 20/1, 33/1, 12/1 and 80/1 respectively they’re not too cramped.

3.20 - This is all very tight so maybe at 7/1 Sacred could be a bit of value. She’s top rated on adjusted ORs, RPRs and my own figures and with three places on offer is a bit of a no-brainer each-way.

3.55 I’ve taken Emily Dickinson each-way at 20/1. I'm not sure this is a strong renewal. Was Hoo Ya Mal flattered in the Derby? His level last time was nowhere near as good even if he did win easily. I presume Godolphin are happy that their sole rep New London will stay and his dosage figures back that up; indeed he looks likely to improve for the extra distance and, for me, is the most likely winner but he’s even money. I'm sure I read an item on the sections of ED's Goodwood race which suggested that Urban Artist wasn't actually going over-fast in front so ED is maybe entitled to a significant mark-up and we know she stays. Her dam won the Champion Stakes in heavy ground so I'm not worried about the going. A notional 7lbs mark-up for Goodwood - I presume Timeform will have quantified it - would give her a similar chance to the top three in the market. I might look again in the morning to see what the odds to four places are with a view to going in again.

4.30 - This race isn’t on council TV so I’m just going to go along with Lincoln winner Johan (14/1 5 places, BOG) and trust that he’s trying, with Power Of Beauty (40/1, 5 places) as each-way back-up. Given where he sits in my table that looks far too long.

Edit - just discovered Sacred doesn't run. I'll take that as money saved.
 
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Nomadic Empire in the Portland. Went into the tracker over 5 1/2 at York so trip is ideal. I was a little disappointed when I dutched him with Korker last week but he stayed on ok after getting outpaced and he appeals with 6/7 places.

I didn't really want to get involved in the Flying Five as it looked so competitive but the rain at the Curragh reduces the field somewhat and Dragon Symbol is interesting given his good heavy ground form - his two runs in the Nunthorpe are similar quality wise which suggests he hasn't lost lost his form from last year, it's maybe taken his trainer that long to get him at his peak.

Hamish was 10s for the Irish Leger Friday night and is 5s now. He's very solid each way in a race with a good shape to it for that type bet. The fav naturally will be hard to beat.
 
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Trueshan 4/9 turned over. Never surprised me to be honest.

I was dead against him getting that 124 rating for beating a 97 rated trees.

Till the day I kick the bucket I wil maintain that it's much much easier giving weight to much inferior horses than taking on those in the same bracket/class as yourself.

He now been beaten by 3 horses all rated 113 to 119. As I said at the time more Media BS yet again
 
Tanlic said:
Trueshan 4/9 turned over. Never surprised me to be honest.

I was dead against him getting that 124 rating for beating a 97 rated trees.

Till the day I kick the bucket I wil maintain that it's much much easier giving weight to much inferior horses than taking on those in the same bracket/class as yourself.

He now been beaten by 3 horses all rated 113 to 119. As I said at the time more Media BS yet again
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Trainer said "he wouldn't let himself down on that ground" which is entirely believable, looking at some of the race times.
More credible than dissing his class,imo.
 
Marb said:
Some interesting races on ITV tomorrow.

Kinross is a nice horse on his day but maybe a tad short now? I have taken a chance on New Energy who looks a smash up job in the betting market and has some form from earlier this season which would give him a good chance. I doubt his Irish trainer and connections would bring him over here for this if they didn't think he could mix it up with these.

Later on the card I have taken Atrium who could quickly develop into an English Cambridgeshire horse by my reckoning. I think he has form with some very good handicappers. In the same race I see Master Richard and Point Lynas renew their rivalry after the last day at York where they had a tussle in what was effectively a two horse race for about a mile. I hope Atrium can show his class though and I can't back them all so just hope Master Richard doesn't win after I did him at York.

Inchicore is a worthy fav in the next race. A lightly raced filly and the cut in the ground will benefit her. A good staying on fourth the last day in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock and I believe there's more to come. At 2/1 or bigger with Hollie Doyle on I wouldn't put anyone off. She actually has an entry in the Irish Ceserwitch in a couple of weeks. Lets see what she does tomorrow.

I have had a pure guessers bet on French Claim for trainer Paddy Tworney in the classic. He is sending some very useful horses over here and sooner or later you feel he will hit the target. Haskoy is well backed on the early markets and fascinating to see how she goes under Frankie Dettori but I prefer French Claim at the price I took earlier.
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Nice one
 
I'm a wee bit annoyed with myself for not backing Chipstead. I'd picked it out before studying the race because I'd mentioned it earlier in the season because it was a brother to Oxted and likely to develop into better than a modest handicapper, and Oxted had won this before going on to become a top sprinter the following season. But once I'd done my figures and even though I had a '+p' next to it, I checked the betting and saw it was a single-figure price and thought "fvck that for a game of sojers". Ended up winning like a potential good 'un and supremely shrewdly plotted up by the trainer.
 
reet hard said:
Trainer said "he wouldn't let himself down on that ground" which is entirely believable, looking at some of the race times.
More credible than dissing his class,imo.
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Keith Dalgliesh took his out because the ground was too soft an di the trainer of Island Brave and he's saying what? It wasn't soft enough.

Horse ran a good race and was just pipped and if they ran it again he might win but he is not a 124 horse in anyone's book is what I am saying
 
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