What are you backing Today? Part 2

EC21 said:
Lots of good racing today but I like the Elite Hurdle as a punting challenge, looks fascinating. I've come down on Knappers Hill in it. On Good ground his record is 6/6. Looks very progressive. Beat Boombawn easily giving that one a lot of weight. Boombawn has since beaten 132 rated Teddy Blue. I don't think Sceau Royal can give 6 lb to Knappers Hill and beat him.
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Aye, he is certainly the improver, but can make something of a case for all four ( 4!!! What a disgrace for a £40,000 race.) chanced a bit anyway. GL
 
Euronymous said:
This is the November Handicap not the Ces. I cannot have any jumps horse over 12f, it's a different ballgame.
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I saw earlier in the week you were against Metier, Euro, and immediately couldn't figure out why.

My understanding is that when horses jump a hurdle they actually get a breather, which is why, traditionally, 10-12f Flat horses do well at two miles over hurdles. Logic - mine at any rate - dictates that a middle-distance Flat horse who then becomes an established 2m hurdler should have no problem dropping back in trip on the Flat.

On top of that, not many of this field will appreciate the deep ground as much as Metier. He would be favourite in my book based on the levels he's shown over hurdles.

But I emphasise that I didn't trawl this field for my ratings so I'm working on the assumption that Metier is a 100+ horse getting in off 89.
 
barjon said:
Aye, he is certainly the improver, but can make something of a case for all four ( 4!!! What a disgrace for a £40,000 race.) chanced a bit anyway. GL
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I know, it is a right puzzle, like you say though just 4 runners for a proper prize. If memory serves, this race is usually a small field. Just checked back to 1997 and the average field size for this race is 6
 
Desert Orchid said:
I saw earlier in the week you were against Metier, Euro, and immediately couldn't figure out why.

My understanding is that when horses jump a hurdle they actually get a breather, which is why, traditionally, 10-12f Flat horses do well at two miles over hurdles. Logic - mine at any rate - dictates that a middle-distance Flat horse who then becomes an established 2m hurdler should have no problem dropping back in trip on the Flat.

On top of that, not many of this field will appreciate the deep ground as much as Metier. He would be favourite in my book based on the levels he's shown over hurdles.

But I emphasise that I didn't trawl this field for my ratings so I'm working on the assumption that Metier is a 100+ horse getting in off 89.
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Interesting one this re flat v jumps distances. I usually work on the premise that a 5f horse can win at 2 miles over the sticks, not always obviously. When you get a 12f horse on the flat, I tend to oppose them at 2 miles over jumps, I think they need further. Obviously there will be examples of that not being true.
 
I think Frodon is a tempting lay in the Badger, may be GATG.

I've also backed Art Power at Donny now he's drifted to 3/1. This is his level.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I saw earlier in the week you were against Metier, Euro, and immediately couldn't figure out why.

My understanding is that when horses jump a hurdle they actually get a breather, which is why, traditionally, 10-12f Flat horses do well at two miles over hurdles. Logic - mine at any rate - dictates that a middle-distance Flat horse who then becomes an established 2m hurdler should have no problem dropping back in trip on the Flat.

On top of that, not many of this field will appreciate the deep ground as much as Metier. He would be favourite in my book based on the levels he's shown over hurdles.

But I emphasise that I didn't trawl this field for my ratings so I'm working on the assumption that Metier is a 100+ horse getting in off 89.
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Couldn't agree more. We'll see.
 
Euronymous said:
I think Frodon is a tempting lay in the Badger, may be GATG.

I've also backed Art Power at Donny now he's drifted to 3/1. This is his level.
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On that I agree about Frodon....I'm going to place lay (3)

I've always like Sceau Royal but at the ripe old age of 10 coming on 11 I would have thought fences would be a better bet for him

I make PN's Knapper's Hill the best bet on the card today
 
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EC21 said:
Interesting one this re flat v jumps distances. I usually work on the premise that a 5f horse can win at 2 miles over the sticks, not always obviously. When you get a 12f horse on the flat, I tend to oppose them at 2 miles over jumps, I think they need further. Obviously there will be examples of that not being true.
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I think that was the case back in the pre-Pipe days when hurdles races were largely jog-and-sprint, only it was something we didn't realise until Pipe got them hard fit, they went off fast, took a breather down the back and then ran away from them again up the straight.

Not they're almost all being trained that way and you never see sprinters over hurdles any more.

At least that's my perception...
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think that was the case back in the pre-Pipe days when hurdles races were largely jog-and-sprint, only it was something we didn't realise until Pipe got them hard fit, they went off fast, took a breather down the back and then ran away from them again up the straight.

Not they're almost all being trained that way and you never see sprinters over hurdles any more.

At least that's my perception...
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Maybe not pure sprinters DO, but 7f/8f flat horses do well over jumps at 2 miles. More stamina on the flat than that generally points to staying above 2m over the jumps. Just generalising here obviously. That is also just a perception on my behalf too. I find the comparison with distances from flat to NH an interesting area.
 
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Great call Frodon supporters, what a tough tough horse. I say supporters, I might just say well done DO. You kept the faith, I know I didn't. Bloody awesome animal. I just missed hearing about Enrillo on radio, is he ok?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Win 1.50 - I’ll be very disappointed if Frodon can’t win this off 158. I’m holding off until the morning to see if the price lengthens again after shortening from 5s to 10/3 through the evening.
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I love that horse :D

I wondered if Bryony had blown it, asking for too much at that awkward fence before the straight and then encouraging Lord Accord to get closer two out. I'd have popped the former and asked for the latter.

And anyone who got 5/1 yesterday must be smiling like the proverbial.

Lord Accord is worth keeping an eye on. They might have to run it down the park a few times now but he has a decent prize in him.
 
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Proved me wrong I honestly thought age would have caught up with him. Especially him being a front runner and all.

Nothing looked like they were going to get a blow in at anytime..well done to anyone who kept the faith.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ain 2.11 - I’ve set the ones out of the weights in red to put the race into some kind of perspective. A lot of these are just there for the owners’ day out and can be ignored so it’s nowhere near as competitive as the numbers might imply and if the bookies offer a few extra places there will be value to be had. Sam Thomas is a trainer I hold in high regard and he set his stall out last week when taking the big race at Ascot with Deutsch up. I’m going to back Al Dancer (13/2) here. The saver will go on Gesskille (12/1) who had better form than this in France and, unusually for one so young, has been brought through the Hunters route. He could be a Teeton Mill type.
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Sometimes this game is dead easy :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ain 2.11 - I’ve set the ones out of the weights in red to put the race into some kind of perspective. A lot of these are just there for the owners’ day out and can be ignored so it’s nowhere near as competitive as the numbers might imply and if the bookies offer a few extra places there will be value to be had. Sam Thomas is a trainer I hold in high regard and he set his stall out last week when taking the big race at Ascot with Deutsch up. I’m going to back Al Dancer (13/2) here. The saver will go on Gesskille (12/1) who had better form than this in France and, unusually for one so young, has been brought through the Hunters route. He could be a Teeton Mill type.
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Top picking DO, hope the F/C was included in your bets
 
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Ain 1.01 .

Ain 2.11 - I’ve set the ones out of the weights in red to put the race into some kind of perspective. A lot of these are just there for the owners’ day out and can be ignored so it’s nowhere near as competitive as the numbers might imply and if the bookies offer a few extra places there will be value to be had. Sam Thomas is a trainer I hold in high regard and he set his stall out last week when taking the big race at Ascot with Deutsch up. I’m going to back Al Dancer (13/2) here. The saver will go on Gesskille (12/1) who had better form than this in France and, unusually for one so young, has been brought through the Hunters route. He could be a Teeton Mill

Win 1.50 - I’ll be very disappointed if Frodon can’t win this off 158. I’m holding off until the morning to see if the price lengthens again after shortening from 5s to 10/3 through the evening.




Good luck everyone.[/QUOTE]


Nice one D. Very good.

I had my £5 free bet on gesskille at 12s (win)
 
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