Might be the clues in the awayday?
What are you backing Today? Part 2
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Beef or Salmon
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I might be clutching at straws but I think that Dolos maybe the value - I cant help but be drawn back to his win at Sandown last February, which came at a time when Nicholls couldnt buy a win and was the reason I marked him up at the time, it may have just been an anomolay but with the prices and the lack of a standout opponent I'll take my chances.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I put War Lord up as the most likely PP winner and couldn't understand the price 20/1.....I do now as he looks absolutely thrown in here.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Tidy performance from Greaneteen.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I trust so few jumps trainers and was willing to just back the form after the episode with Phoenix Way last year.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That's fair but I don't know, I choose not to listen to certain trainers, they'll tie you in knots. War Lord was poor, not sure about the trainer, couldn't even beat Dolos.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Disappointing from both TTL and WL.
With them not running their race it went the way of the figures.
Anyone who happened to 'know' TTL & WL weren't going to run their race could have cleaned up on Greaneteen at a ridiculous price [assuming that knowledge].
With them not running their race it went the way of the figures.
Anyone who happened to 'know' TTL & WL weren't going to run their race could have cleaned up on Greaneteen at a ridiculous price [assuming that knowledge].
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I was told yesterday that both would run below form, so I weighed in heavy on Greaneteen:lol: If only it were that easy Mo
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
You were told that TTL would hit one? That is bollocks.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
PN's sole bet today - according to the RP.
Wincanton 3.00
There looks to be good market support for Milkwood, who was third in a County Hurdle and second in a Galway Hurdle. He was very lightly raced last season so his comeback second was perfectly satisfactory. I feel there is still improvement to come from Milkwood and he can find the necessary few pounds to be competative with the top two in the market.
There looks to be good market support for Milkwood, who was third in a County Hurdle and second in a Galway Hurdle. He was very lightly raced last season so his comeback second was perfectly satisfactory. I feel there is still improvement to come from Milkwood and he can find the necessary few pounds to be competative with the top two in the market.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Last bets of the flat season tomorrow at Donny and both are trained by Haggas who has saved me this year. I'm in the red slightly, it's been a bad six months, but without his charges it would have been a car crash.
Sweet Believer ran ok sandwiching Bayside Boy and Escobar in what at the time looked a ho hum kind of race at Sandown in Sept' on seasonal debut but those two have massively franked the form since and she ran really well in the Balmoral subsequently. This is much calmer waters despite it being a big field and 7/2 is fine.
Back at Goodwood in June I found a nice little race that was won by a Balding trained horse called Bizarre Law. He won from Nathanael Greene and Madame Ambassador and I mistakenly tracked the winner rather than the other two. They have both won races at nice prices since and Bizarre Law has done frig all, that kind of season like I said. NG is 8/1 for the November Handicap and I've taken that. He stays 14f and goes on soft so looks solid ew in a race paying plenty of places.
On the jumps I've done a Brewinupastorm/Knappers Hill double (might be a bad bet, didn't consider trip for the latter) and Lifetime Ambition in the Sefton. He was a graded class novice chaser last season, goes well fresh and 151 is a nice mark for this. Obviously he has to take to the track/fences and for that reason I'm not arsing about each way but he was 9/1 at 365 a bit ago and similar on the machine.
Sweet Believer ran ok sandwiching Bayside Boy and Escobar in what at the time looked a ho hum kind of race at Sandown in Sept' on seasonal debut but those two have massively franked the form since and she ran really well in the Balmoral subsequently. This is much calmer waters despite it being a big field and 7/2 is fine.
Back at Goodwood in June I found a nice little race that was won by a Balding trained horse called Bizarre Law. He won from Nathanael Greene and Madame Ambassador and I mistakenly tracked the winner rather than the other two. They have both won races at nice prices since and Bizarre Law has done frig all, that kind of season like I said. NG is 8/1 for the November Handicap and I've taken that. He stays 14f and goes on soft so looks solid ew in a race paying plenty of places.
On the jumps I've done a Brewinupastorm/Knappers Hill double (might be a bad bet, didn't consider trip for the latter) and Lifetime Ambition in the Sefton. He was a graded class novice chaser last season, goes well fresh and 151 is a nice mark for this. Obviously he has to take to the track/fences and for that reason I'm not arsing about each way but he was 9/1 at 365 a bit ago and similar on the machine.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Thoughts for some of today's TV races. As ever, references to ratings are my own unless otherwise stated and bear in mind these thoughts were written yesterday or the day before (in today's case yesterday):
Don 3.13 - I gave up on the idea of doing this race but will back Metier, Deja and Faylaq against the field. Metier (10/1) is a 140-odd (OR) hurdler so cold be lobbed in here off 89 and will love the ground. Deja (40/1) went up to 112 for winning the Old Newton Cup in 2020 but has disappointed since. The trainer is well up to having him ready to win first time up. I’ve been backing Faylaq (33/1) now and again this season in the belief he has a race of this nature in him off this kind of mark. He was rated 21lbs higher than this two seasons ago.
Ain 1.01 - Flight Deck (6/1) holds an entry in the £150k race at Haydock in a fortnight’s time so a top-four finish here might be the plan to keep options open. Most of these are returning to hurdling after being chasing and probably prepping for a chasing campaign so it might be a very uncompetitive race. With Lisnagar Oscar out, it’s probably between the two improving novices Milan Bridge (3/1) and Johnson’s Blue (13/2). The former probably won’t be lacking fitness but the latter is hard fit. Milan Bridge will probably also have to win to make sure he gets into the big Haydock race. I’ll probably end up looking silly but I’m going to go with the longer price of Johnson’s Blue.
Ain 2.11 - I’ve set the ones out of the weights in red to put the race into some kind of perspective. A lot of these are just there for the owners’ day out and can be ignored so it’s nowhere near as competitive as the numbers might imply and if the bookies offer a few extra places there will be value to be had. Sam Thomas is a trainer I hold in high regard and he set his stall out last week when taking the big race at Ascot with Deutsch up. I’m going to back Al Dancer (13/2) here. The saver will go on Gesskille (12/1) who had better form than this in France and, unusually for one so young, has been brought through the Hunters route. He could be a Teeton Mill type.
Ain 2.45 - Brewin’upastorm (11/10) should be odds-on and is therefore the bet.
Win 1.15 - McFabulous (Evs) just has to take to the fences with a clear round to have this race at his mercy. He should be even shorter than Brewin’upastorm so I’m Punting the double as well.
Win 1.50 - I’ll be very disappointed if Frodon can’t win this off 158. I’m holding off until the morning to see if the price lengthens again after shortening from 5s to 10/3 through the evening.
Win 3.00 - Knight Salute (17/2) is the outsider of the group, presumably because he has it to do on ORs but I think he’s 10lbs better than his mark and that his recent run behind Pied Piper will put him right for this. I’m happy to take him in a win bet and hope I’m right.
Good luck everyone.
Don 3.13 - I gave up on the idea of doing this race but will back Metier, Deja and Faylaq against the field. Metier (10/1) is a 140-odd (OR) hurdler so cold be lobbed in here off 89 and will love the ground. Deja (40/1) went up to 112 for winning the Old Newton Cup in 2020 but has disappointed since. The trainer is well up to having him ready to win first time up. I’ve been backing Faylaq (33/1) now and again this season in the belief he has a race of this nature in him off this kind of mark. He was rated 21lbs higher than this two seasons ago.
Ain 1.01 - Flight Deck (6/1) holds an entry in the £150k race at Haydock in a fortnight’s time so a top-four finish here might be the plan to keep options open. Most of these are returning to hurdling after being chasing and probably prepping for a chasing campaign so it might be a very uncompetitive race. With Lisnagar Oscar out, it’s probably between the two improving novices Milan Bridge (3/1) and Johnson’s Blue (13/2). The former probably won’t be lacking fitness but the latter is hard fit. Milan Bridge will probably also have to win to make sure he gets into the big Haydock race. I’ll probably end up looking silly but I’m going to go with the longer price of Johnson’s Blue.
Ain 2.11 - I’ve set the ones out of the weights in red to put the race into some kind of perspective. A lot of these are just there for the owners’ day out and can be ignored so it’s nowhere near as competitive as the numbers might imply and if the bookies offer a few extra places there will be value to be had. Sam Thomas is a trainer I hold in high regard and he set his stall out last week when taking the big race at Ascot with Deutsch up. I’m going to back Al Dancer (13/2) here. The saver will go on Gesskille (12/1) who had better form than this in France and, unusually for one so young, has been brought through the Hunters route. He could be a Teeton Mill type.
Ain 2.45 - Brewin’upastorm (11/10) should be odds-on and is therefore the bet.
Win 1.15 - McFabulous (Evs) just has to take to the fences with a clear round to have this race at his mercy. He should be even shorter than Brewin’upastorm so I’m Punting the double as well.
Win 1.50 - I’ll be very disappointed if Frodon can’t win this off 158. I’m holding off until the morning to see if the price lengthens again after shortening from 5s to 10/3 through the evening.
Win 3.00 - Knight Salute (17/2) is the outsider of the group, presumably because he has it to do on ORs but I think he’s 10lbs better than his mark and that his recent run behind Pied Piper will put him right for this. I’m happy to take him in a win bet and hope I’m right.
Good luck everyone.
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Lots of good racing today but I like the Elite Hurdle as a punting challenge, looks fascinating. I've come down on Knappers Hill in it. On Good ground his record is 6/6. Looks very progressive. Beat Boombawn easily giving that one a lot of weight. Boombawn has since beaten 132 rated Teddy Blue. I don't think Sceau Royal can give 6 lb to Knappers Hill and beat him.
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I was jesting Euro, probably wrongly.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
My bad, my radar was off.
This is the November Handicap not the Ces. I cannot have any jumps horse over 12f, it's a different ballgame.
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No prob Euro, I didn't think about people having a serious interest in the race, not funny really. Hope you are ok, long time no speak.