What are you backing Today? Part 2

5.30 Wolves. I'm not seeing how Bear Force can finish out of the 3 here. The run at Newbury suggests this is a far better horse than a 73. He was the same price as a 90 horse in that. Doing a 70/30 place win bet. 13.0 win, 2.76 place.
 
EC21 said:
5.30 Wolves. I'm not seeing how Bear Force can finish out of the 3 here. The run at Newbury suggests this is a far better horse than a 73. He was the same price as a 90 horse in that. Doing a 70/30 place win bet. 13.0 win, 2.76 place.
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GL, EC. I'm a sucker for anything with Whipper in the line.
 
I'd say he was pretty well looked after there.

JPortman before the race "Bear Force has been given plenty of weight but hopefully he can still be competitive."
 
EC21 said:
If anyone knows a game mentally harder than this, list away....snooker?:D:D:D
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We certainly need resilience....the 'problem' is that no matter how hard the sh!t run is...we know there's always, always, always another winner just around the corner.

The real struggle (for me) comes when either the bank is a little tight or you just plain miss it or worse, talk yourself out of it. Can take any number of losers, but those hurt (for a few minutes/hours LOL).
 
This is why I stick to the more valuable, usually on council TV, races. More chance of them trying and of the form working out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
This is why I stick to the more valuable, usually on council TV, races. More chance of them trying and of the form working out.
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No, don't agree, many non triers in big races, you have said so yourself, trainers using G1's as warm ups etc. I got you this time I have DO:D:D:D:D:D Get out of that :D:D
 
EC21 said:
No, don't agree, many non triers in big races, you have said so yourself, trainers using G1's as warm ups etc. I got you this time I have DO:D:D:D:D:D Get out of that :D:D
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Yes, you do get non-triers in big races - the brother and I concluded as much about Galvin the other day - including in G1s but in general the more valuable the race the more likely more of the runners will be trying. Obviously there will be some races midweek in which they're all trying because connections' intentions coincide in one race.

But as a generalisation I stand by my assertion that you get more triers and more reliable form in the better weekend races.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, you do get non-triers in big races - the brother and I concluded as much about Galvin the other day - including in G1s but in general the more valuable the race the more likely more of the runners will be trying. Obviously there will be some races midweek in which they're all trying because connections' intentions coincide in one race.

But as a generalisation I stand by my assertion that you get more triers and more reliable form in the better weekend races.
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I agree, I was being a torment:D It all depends on the level of the horse doesn't it?. Many Group 2 horses are given G1 trials same as many class 4 horses are given class 3 trials or warm ups.
 
It happens in the top races,also -;like Mishriff in the Arc, Tuesday in the L'Opera, or Energumene in the Clarence House.
Loads more,too.
 
Bangor 2.00 Grumpy Charley well supported early doors which I can understand given his soft and heavy ground form. His chase mark looks high enough at this stage but he is still lightly raced and it's possible he can justify this mark of 138 tomorrow.

I have also had a saver for the Coral Gold Cup at 25s with Hills just in case.
 
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Aussie Banker 6.30 Kemp. This horse went into my tracker when he won a Haydock handicap back in April from a couple of rivals who went onto have good seasons (Exminster in second winning a good York handicap from Golden Voice on his next start)

He wasn't seen out after a poor effort at Nottingham (drawn wide and pulled to the inside after the stalls opened, he might not have been off) until he turned up at Wolves last month where it looked like he was just there for a blow out given the riding tactics. Happy to take a chance at 6/1.
 
Marb said:
Bangor 2.00 Grumpy Charley well supported early doors which I can understand given his soft and heavy ground form. His chase mark looks high enough at this stage but he is still lightly raced and it's possible he can justify this mark of 138 tomorrow.

I have also had a saver for the Coral Gold Cup at 25s with Hills just in case.
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Horrible
Went out like a lightbulb.

From the highs of Rebel Romance in Keeneland to the lows of a 3 mile chase at Bangor on a Wednesday.

Gutted but we move on.
 
Bet365 are going 3 places in the 7-runner 3.25 Newc. Just missed the 16s on Cracking Find, now 14-1, but could lead these a merry dance for a long way on this ground. I'd say should be around 6 or 7-1.

CF won't get too many better opportunities to win another race (as an 11YO) than this one.

PS some smallish signs in the last week that the Sue Smith stable may be coming into a bit of form.
 
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Betting Maylah each way in the 8.30 at Chelmsford tonight. Posted some good figures at this track including off 55 in a Classified where he ran to 64. 4 places most firms and now 11/2, but was lucky enough to get a little bit better. Horse has solid course form and I would ignore average runs at other courses. Today's race have the fav Cool Vixen running off 65 in a 0-60, but looking at the race it won, I doubt it will be raised above 65 on Tuesday, so I don't think it's good placing to run here under the penalty. Lot of pace in this which will suit the Appleby horse and with marks of 65,64 and 62 for me over course and distance, this looks a great opening off 57 with a useful 3lb claimer on. Can't see this out the four and an each way bet to nothing and he looks ready to win back around his favoured track.
 
Market Rasen 3.15
The 3m trip may find out the top two in the market and Little River Bay could be the one to take advantage
She was well behind Precious Eleanor at Cheltenham in April but gets a handy weight pull and lost a shoe that day

5/1 bet365


That went well [emoji17]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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5.30 Chelmsford.

Looks a poorish race but I spotted an angle into it I think. The odds on favourite is Mirabello Bay. The sire is 0/40 at Chelmsford, the median starting price of those forty is 12/1. 12/1 shots place 25% of the time overall. Using placings is handy when you have no wins to look at in a stat. Belardo's offspring at Chelmsford place just 17% of the time. That suggests they underperform against their odds expectancy. That suggests that even though MB is odds on, it could well be a weak odds onner. I quite like those;).

So, lay the favourite? or try and find a couple to take it on with. The first thing I noticed is that Richard Spencer has had 2 x 2yo winners recently, one was 15.0. His runner PRETTY YOUNG THING is currently 55.0 on Betfair, so have had a fiver on. I daren't not back it now I have spotted his form. One that is being nibbled at is Hannon's PINK LILY, 5.8 on Betfair, so have had a tenner on. I will probably just kick myself at 5.35 for not just laying the favourite if something else wins.:D
 
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