What are you backing Today? Part 2

A couple of quite tentative interests for Cheltenham tomorrow.

1.10 Hurricane Harvey was due to run earlier in the week but was scratched late in the day. This is perhaps a sign they reckon he is showing some of his old sparkle and would rather go for the bigger pot, or maybe not, and maybe it is ground related, (or a bit of both even?), but at 20s or thereabouts he is certainly backable each way based on his form from a couple of seasons ago.

1.45 Captain Tom Cat is another who has some good previous form and his backers can only hope he is ready to run his best race tomorrow.

Good luck.
 
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Marb said:
1.45 Captain Tom Cat is another who has some good previous form and his backers can only hope he is ready to run his best race tomorrow.

Good luck.
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Has his chance on back form for sure. I did Amarillo Sky earlier in the week as his form was progressive last season and he ran well enough in the Grand Annual.

Grey Diamond is the wrong favourite so it's certainly a race to tuck into.
 
What a day:surrender:.
2 bets today, both e.w. Both 1 out of the places owing to 1 withdrawn.
Tough game.sometimes.
 
Flame said:
Betting Maylah each way in the 8.30 at Chelmsford tonight. Posted some good figures at this track including off 55 in a Classified where he ran to 64. 4 places most firms and now 11/2, but was lucky enough to get a little bit better. Horse has solid course form and I would ignore average runs at other courses. Today's race have the fav Cool Vixen running off 65 in a 0-60, but looking at the race it won, I doubt it will be raised above 65 on Tuesday, so I don't think it's good placing to run here under the penalty. Lot of pace in this which will suit the Appleby horse and with marks of 65,64 and 62 for me over course and distance, this looks a great opening off 57 with a useful 3lb claimer on. Can't see this out the four and an each way bet to nothing and he looks ready to win back around his favoured track.
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Good call Chris, state of the form of the one that beat you, ffs. Unreal this game sometimes. Well often times.
 
Marb said:
1.45 Captain Tom Cat is another who has some good previous form and his backers can only hope he is ready to run his best race tomorrow.

Good luck.
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I'm very keen on this one and reckon 12/1 is huge but I'm playing safe and going each-way.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Form of Newlands yard was enough to put me off Captain Tom Cat
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Stable only had 13 runners in last 11 days. 31% placed. Median price of them was 9/1, so an expected place rate of 32%, so not really running below par. When a stable is not really running well, that place % would be a lot lower. Thats not saying Captain will win, but I doubt the stable is in the dark
 
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Not getting the love for Captain Tom Cat tbh. Hasankey is one who interests me at 12/1. Looks to be fairly closely matched with the face on Grand Annual running and has the benefit of a recent run.

Edit: 14/1 with Coral/Lads

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In the Cheltenham opener, the market seems to have dismissed the chances of the two horses running for unfashionable trainers from the north i.e. Gold De Bois (Iain Jardine) and Malystic (Peter Niven).

Both yards and both horses are in good form, and whilst there's always the danger that their previous races have been less competitive than this, the available prices compensate to a degree. I've dutched the pair at 14's and 10's respectively.
 
viking said:
Not getting the love for Captain Tom Cat tbh.
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My own reason(s), plus he's top with me on the run mentioned:

At this meeting last year – his final run of last season – he was trying to give the 2/5f Third Time Lucki 2lbs and was closing him down when falling at the last. TTL was rated 150 that day and went on to run Edwardstone to about four lengths and was odds-on fav for the Haldon last week. I have to assume CTC did himself an injury when he fell so his two runs this season – both over half a mile further – have maybe been all about match practice ahead of this serious target. The first-time blinkers suggest they mean business.
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I'm another not quite getting the Capt Tom Cat love - and he's a horse I've had a fair bit of time for in the past.

His last win over 2m was off a mark of 121 (scrambled home), and he's off 19lbs higher today. To me, he just isn't a two-miler, and reaching for the blinkers smacks a little of desperation. All that said, he at least has the ground in his favour.
 
Grasshopper said:
In the Cheltenham opener, the market seems to have dismissed the chances of the two horses running for unfashionable trainers from the north i.e. Gold De Bois (Iain Jardine) and Malystic (Peter Niven).

Both yards and both horses are in good form, and whilst there's always the danger that their previous races have been less competitive than this, the available prices compensate to a degree. I've dutched the pair at 14's and 10's respectively.
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I must admit I always dismiss horses like this who hold gaff track form. There does seem to be a bias against Northern trained horses though - last week at Aintree Only Money was challenging Gunsight Ridge for favouritism in the 2 mile handicap chase despite form limited to lesser tracks (Plumpton and Worcester). Southern gaff seems to be held in higher regard for some reason.
 
Yes, I've noticed for some time that RPRs tend to be very stingy towards races at the minor tracks, especially the northern ones. The official handicapper is much more open minded about them. Where RPRs might peg a winner to a previous rating, the handicapper almost invariably puts them up, perhaps not as much as at the bigger tracks and that's maybe how it should be. You'd imagine the bigger the track the more competitive the race and worthy the form but there will always be the reverse somewhere along the line.
 
Just noticed that Aidan Coleman hasn't locked-down all of the McManus rides at Cheltenham this weekend - though he does ride for him.

Has the 'UK' arrangement finished, and JP is now going with stable-jockeys where they're available e.g. Harry Skelton rides for him today, and James Bowen rides for him tomorrow?
 
Grasshopper said:
Just noticed that Aidan Coleman hasn't locked-down all of the McManus rides at Cheltenham this weekend - though he does ride for him.

Has the 'UK' arrangement finished, and JP is now going with stable-jockeys where they're available e.g. Harry Skelton rides for him today, and James Bowen rides for him tomorrow?
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Not sure Nick, Coleman is jocked up on one of JP's for Hendo in the Supreme Trial.
 
My heart sank when I saw CTC anchored at the back from the off. Maybe they were experimenting the first time blinkers but the horse was never jumping with any fluency and was already beat by halfway before his mistake.

Well done anyone who backed Amarillo Sky. Second-season improving novices dominating the finish.
 
I can't do any worse on Saturday than I did today, although my longshot Milanford ran well and may have traded single figures in the run? He may be interesting over a shorter trip next time.

One horse I want to mention tomorrow is Lucky Man at Lingfield. I thought he conducted himself this flat season with great credit. He ran in that handicap at York behind Harry Three, then backed it up when just behind Gale Force Maya at York again. He kept running well and then ran fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup which was a seriously good run. All while still a colt and ungelded which I think is all the more admirable.

He is up against some proper good horses here but his form figures on the all weather read 24132311 so I reckon he rates an each way bet for this race. He might need 1 or 2 of the class horses to underperform but after a long hard turf season that might just happen.

I'm interested by Zoffenien running in the three mile handicap hurdle at Chelteham. I have to back him as I couldn't stand seeing him win when I wasn't on, but there's no real great logic to be attached, as this really is a stab in the dark stepping him up in trip like this.

It does appear this way, but I do recall he has been too keen before over shorter hurdle trips and his style of running might be suited by a step up in trip. His last flat effort when staying on well wasn't such a bad prep as it may at first seem.
 
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Nothing at Cheltenham today. I'm interested in Nassalam going left handed given the way he jumped last time at Ascot but would be more keen in him at a flat track.

Only bets today are Coeur Sublime at Naas because the price diff' between him and Gentleman Dee Mee is too great (big weight concession plus I never trust impressive Aintree winners). Also tracker horse Fortunes Melody at Uttoxeter.
 
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It's a pretty quiet day but I'm really looking forward to the big race. It should be hugely influential for the rest of the season.

As per, these thoughts and prices were written on Thursday with the prices prevalent at that time.

1.45 - This is all about which of these improves most for taking to fences and it’s potentially a high-class renewal. It looks to me to be between my top two. Monmiral (9/4) is favourite more on account of the trainer’s reputation and record in the race than anything the horse has done and I’m keen to oppose him. Tommy’s Oscar (3/1) should be favourite. His OR is higher than all bar two of the RPRs accorded to the winner in the past 10 years and there’s no reason why he can’t be better over fences than hurdles. He disappointed in the Champion Hurdle itself and Glory And Fortune finished in front of him. Whether the latter’s form can be taken literally is open to question but he was fast improving going into the race and at 12/1 (weak) he’s worth risking for a saver.

2.20 - This renewal looks well up to scratch, certainly in terms of competitiveness. It isn’t hard to imagine some of these ending up with ORs around the 160 mark before too long. The jockey and the horse’s age put me off Simply The Betts but his top six performances are on this course at this trip although mainly on the new course. I took Midnight River at 12/1 earlier in the week but the trainer has been hinting that it might not run, which might explain why the price hasn’t contracted. He only ewnt up 8lbs for hacking up by 25 lengths recently. I also like the profile of Umbrigado (16/1) and the Pipes have serious history in this race. Il Ridoto (17/2) is entitled to improve and Editeur Du Gite (16/1) and Nassalam (20/1) will be a lot happier making the running around here than at Ascot last time but I worry about the former at this trip. Ga Law (13/2) looked on a steep curve as a novice but missed last season before putting up a very promising reappearance run in the Old Roan. The admirable Coole Cody looks a good marker for the race. He could run to his best previous form, which would be good enough to win an ordinary Class 2 Saturday handicap, but still finish just out of the places. I’m reluctant to take anything at single figure odds given the competitiveness of the race so will back up Midnight River with Umbrigado and Nassalam and hope for the best.

2.55 - First time up might be the time to catch Lisnagar Oscar (16/1) but I’ll wait until the race prelims to decide on whether to back him. On The Blind Side (9/1) might be classy enough to defy top weight. Sidi Ismael (7/1) is the profile horse and probably worth a bet too. Padleyourowncanoe (7/1) is ridiculously well in on old form, rated 12lbs higher as recently as February. First time up might be the time to catch him. I’ll have another look at the race on Saturday morning.

Good luck, everyone.


By the way, just what the fvck has happened to the Greatwood this year?? I've seen better races at Musselburgh.
 
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