What are you backing Today? Part 2

3.15 Exeter
Don Herbager will be better suited by conditions today than on his reappearance and looks like decent value off 115 at 10/1


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Maybe it's just me but I don't get this gamble on Cianciana in the first race at Sedgefield today.

She finished 2nd last time out to along odds on shot but she looked downright ordinary and clumsy to me.


Hidalgo De L'Isle on the otherhand looked like he was crying out for alonger trip which he has today

Had no hesitation in taking the 15/8 Hidalgo De L'Isle on bfe
 
Marb said:
Punch 12.47 - I recall Notice To Close won three races on the bounce this time of year in 2020 and was rated as high as 131 eighteen months ago. He subsequently stuggled often against higher class horses. Anyway his trainer took him point to pointing recently and he won one of those. He then ran an eyecatching race when fourth last time out staying on nicely. He runs off 119 here so maybe he is well handicapped and this looks his level tomorrow.
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Notice To Close goes for the 3.10 at Punchestown on Sunday and can follow up his recent course and distance success by going close again in this. Only raised 5lb for his last win... a mark of 124 is still decent for him.
 
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Some Saturdays I just know I won't back a winner. That feeling when you know how tricky the races you've played in are...you see them drifting on oddschecker, and simply think your money was too easily lost to the old enemy.

Tomorrow I still can't believe Camprond is the price he is. Loads of good form in the book, including that fourth in the 2021 Greatwood. If he places I'd settle for that.

Also like the look of Clondaw Castle in the Conti Chase. He arrives here fresh from a break, and has danced many a good dance in some competative races. I've backed him as apart from the jolly I reckon he could be the one to run a huge race, and can certainly pinch second place.

Over at Warwick, well not putting Grumpy Charley in my lucky 31 two weeks ago cost me 2K, so that was a real body blow which I am still treating myself for. I have done Grand Mogul and Charley in a couple different L15's. I am still awaiting DO's write up on Grand Mogul on the long shot thread!?

Then there's Pump action, and Ronald Pump is about the only thing that I am confident about. He was always predominently a handicap hurdler, and I expect him to revel in it against this field tomorrow. Whether he can win tomorrow and go to the Pertemps at the Festival with a live chance is another matter. I want to see him destroy this lot tomorrow.

Good luck all tomorrow if you are foolish enough to have a bet!
 
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Marb said:
Over at Warwick, well not putting Grumpy Charley in my lucky 31 two weeks ago cost me 2K, so that was a real body blow which I am still treating myself for. I have done Grand Mogul and Charley in a couple different L15's. I am still awaiting DO's write up on Grand Mogul on the long shot thread!?
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You don't need my write-up - not that one exists anyway - because my reasons for liking it [at long odds] will be the same as yours :)

All I've written is (to accompany a high rating on older form):

...looked like going places for Hendo but has obviously had training problems.
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Givega 2:25 Warwick has been pitched into this competitive Grade 2 after two impressive wins at lowly Class 4. Obviously it’s asking a lot to make the jump, but he’s highly thought of and there’s been strong market support. He’s now 7/2 from 7/1 early price last evening. In my tracker and I would have just watched, but that support has tempted me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You don't need my write-up - not that one exists anyway - because my reasons for liking it [at long odds] will be the same as yours :)

All I've written is (to accompany a high rating on older form):
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I'd agree. The Chepstow race was a nice run. Grandy was down on his nose at the second, but jumped well after. Finished with running and fresh-looking. That (and anything else in history) won't tell us he'll relish this distance on heavy for certain. But the indications for it are enough that the odds look attractive enough.

fwiw If anyone fancied Fortescue for the Welsh National, then there are no pressing reasons not to ignore the last run and take the odds here. I don't think Daly knows what happened there, maybe just an off day. It certainly wasn't planned.

Plenty of dangers.

Edit just noticed Fortescue is out.

Edit edit Just noticed GM is 50-1 with B3. That's a bet beyond doubt!
 
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Can't say I'm a massive fan of fancying a few this time of year but when you have a bulging tracker this happens

Galop de Chasse at Warwick. Last chance for this fella - I was on at Exeter in a good race against the likes of ShakemupHarry and Tile Tapper and last time he was beaten by a horse who'd dropped to a mark of 119 after battling Brave Seasca from a perch in the 130s last season. Today he's up against Haddex des Obeaux who won nicely at Doncaster on decent ground but he's headstrong and a semi tearaway - he might not get home. Third Time Lucki is dropping to a nice mark but again, ground. I was less than complementary about Venetia in the GC thread, lets home she makes it up to me today.

Tile Tapper Kempton. This is one of those where you see the inflated short term ante-post prices and take a chance yours will show up despite a double entry. He was 8/1 when prices opened. Enrilo was fav for this on Tuesday, typical bookies horse. Tile Tapper proved he stayed 3m behind Remastered (who is basically a graded class chaser) last time and loves heavy ground. I do worry about the combo of this type of surface and 3 miles as his win on Chepstow deep was over much shorter. Just hoping for the best after crushing the price on Frero Ballbag last Saturday didn't work.

Jack in the Box Fairyhouse. This one runs in the Magnier colours and shaped much better than the bare result when third behind Innovated (re-opposes 9lb better off) at Down Royal at Xmas. The selection ended up poorly placed when a rival veered sharply left down the back straight forcing him towards the back of the racing pack and he ended up covering much more ground than ideal when the field had to bypass the second last. He stayed on well though and this step up in trip will suit. The fav beat a couple of high profile horses at Punchy and is respected, I just think 9/2 about JitB is worth a go.
 
barjon said:
Givega 2:25 Warwick has been pitched into this competitive Grade 2 after two impressive wins at lowly Class 4. Obviously it’s asking a lot to make the jump, but he’s highly thought of and there’s been strong market support. He’s now 7/2 from 7/1 early price last evening. In my tracker and I would have just watched, but that support has tempted me.
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Followed you in on this one. Kicking myself for not backing him at 7/1 last night when I got distracted but took the 4/1 just before Bet365 shortened him to 7/2. Still some 4s with Betfair but they closed my account

Fortescue being a NR has probably saved me some money

I’m drawn to Saint Calvados in the S Conti but the stone penalty of David Maxwell (over fences he’s a bit better over hurdles) puts me off. Pic d’Orhy is way too short though so want to take him on. Paint the Dream also a bit short at 11/4 and I can’t fancy Angels Breath after more than 3 years off. So maybe Cooke Cody is worth a go at a big price


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I'm close to struggling to see why Cornerstone Lad isn't more like 5/2 than 11/2 in the 1.22 Wetherby. This race is a season target. The worry is whether it's deep enough. A watching eye needed on the early races.

And there's a much better chance than 9 or 10/1 that Nights in Venice will be within a length of the leaders jumping the last in the 1.57.
 
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viking said:
I’m drawn to Saint Calvados in the S Conti but the stone penalty of David Maxwell (over fences he’s a bit better over hurdles) puts me off. Pic d’Orhy is way too short though so want to take him on. Paint the Dream also a bit short at 11/4 and I can’t fancy Angels Breath after more than 3 years off. So maybe Cooke Cody is worth a go at a big price
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Pic D'ohry has been saved for this, as has Outlaw Peter in the Lanzarote.
It's Saturday,and they're PN's, what could possibly go wrong?:
 
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viking said:
I’m drawn to Saint Calvados in the S Conti but the stone penalty of David Maxwell (over fences he’s a bit better over hurdles) puts me off. Pic d’Orhy is way too short though so want to take him on. Paint the Dream also a bit short at 11/4 and I can’t fancy Angels Breath after more than 3 years off. So maybe Cooke Cody is worth a go at a big price
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My take (odds correct at the time of writing on Thursday):

Unsurprisingly, Nicholls has the best record in this race and it isn’t hard to imagine his being determined to win it. I’ve been a fan of Pic D’Orhy (6/4) since before it landed the Betfair Hurdle for us almost three years ago but can’t back it at the price. I was hoping Paint The Dream (5/2) would be overpriced because it’s been running in handicaps, is now nine years old and doesn’t exactly boast a prolific winning profile but, being realistic, it’s top-rated on ORs and RPRs and gets weight from the favourite. A good run from Saint Calvados wouldn’t surprise me. I thought he got the classic non-trier’s ride last time, going off far too fast and weakening late. That run suggested the ability is still there but I wonder if he’s targeting the big Newbury handicap next month. The rider has definitely improved but is still a negative for me. Angels Breath is interesting. He was rated 151 as a novice for Hendo and had a huge reputation so would have been entitled to make up into a 161+ second-season chaser with – possibly – further improvement last season. I really rate Sam Thomas as a trainer and would reckon if anyone can produce a horse to win after three years off he’s the one. I’ve taken a small sentimental win bet at 12/1 (BOG).

 
9/4 super boost with Bet365 about Pic d’Orhy atm. £10 max I think


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Much more impressive than I'd anticipated. PTD is no mug and paid the price for trying to stay with him. Clondaw was ridden for the scraps and has got second. He was rated 154 but PDO has given him 6lbs and a right doing.
 
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