What are you backing Today? Part 2

Yes PDO impressive there. I figured I was only opposing him on value grounds so the 9/4 super boost took that away. I rarely bet much more than £10 on a race other than the festival so that was OK


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
barjon said:
Givega 2:25 Warwick has been pitched into this competitive Grade 2 after two impressive wins at lowly Class 4. Obviously it’s asking a lot to make the jump, but he’s highly thought of and there’s been strong market support. He’s now 7/2 from 7/1 early price last evening. In my tracker and I would have just watched, but that support has tempted me.
Click to expand...

“Paid for being too keen early” according to ITV, but I think he just didn’t make the grade. Interesting horse , though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, he won a £50k - hardly shithouse money - handicap by 14 lengths on good ground off 154. What mark would you give him for that?
Click to expand...

Kept him at that mark. It was an uncompetitive handicap like the one Numitor (3rd that day) won that saw him raised from 131 to 142. Those sort of mark adjustments off of the back of 5 runner races are ridiculous.
 
Marb said:
Some Saturdays I just know I won't back a winner. That feeling when you know how tricky the races you've played in are...you see them drifting on oddschecker, and simply think your money was too easily lost to the old enemy.

Tomorrow I still can't believe Camprond is the price he is. Loads of good form in the book, including that fourth in the 2021 Greatwood. If he places I'd settle for that.

Also like the look of Clondaw Castle in the Conti Chase. He arrives here fresh from a break, and has danced many a good dance in some competative races. I've backed him as apart from the jolly I reckon he could be the one to run a huge race, and can certainly pinch second place.

Over at Warwick, well not putting Grumpy Charley in my lucky 31 two weeks ago cost me 2K, so that was a real body blow which I am still treating myself for. I have done Grand Mogul and Charley in a couple different L15's. I am still awaiting DO's write up on Grand Mogul on the long shot thread!?

Then there's Pump action, and Ronald Pump is about the only thing that I am confident about. He was always predominently a handicap hurdler, and I expect him to revel in it against this field tomorrow. Whether he can win tomorrow and go to the Pertemps at the Festival with a live chance is another matter. I want to see him destroy this lot tomorrow.

Good luck all tomorrow if you are foolish enough to have a bet!
Click to expand...

Camprond brought down through no fault of his own early on by Mark Of Gold. A shame that.
 
Euronymous said:
Kept him at that mark. It was an uncompetitive handicap like the one Numitor (3rd that day) won that saw him raised from 131 to 142. Those sort of mark adjustments off of the back of 5 runner races are ridiculous.
Click to expand...

That argument doesn't hold water, Euro.

Next time out Numitor, having won that £8k handicap, was a close second in a £50k race off that higher mark. That suggests the higher mark is in the right ball park. £50k handicaps, even with few runners, are rarely uncompetitive.

The Widdow Maker, beaten 14 lengths by PTD came out and was beaten less than three lengths having had his mark lowered by 3lbs.

That all points to a 6lbs rise for PTD being fair.
 
Last edited:
What does hold water is you can get these small runner fields with badly handicapped horses and one of them will win and be raised. The handicapper doesn't seem to look at the context of a given race, he just looks at his chart and raises them accordingly. There is no way in Hell that Paint the Dream is a 160 beast, No chance.
 
The ground must be pretty soft at Kempton for that Lanzarote field to have fallen apart so early and only four finishing. Maybe they went a bit fast in the ground but it was a rousing finish with Maxbet's longshot just held.

The winner was one of the first I dismissed because Skelton was at Warwick. I don't mind Andrews and she did win the County a few years back but she gave the mare a brilliant ride.

Whizz Kid gave me a great run for my money too.
 
Journey with Me is third fav in the Novice Chase at Punchy and I can't have that. The fav's form was let down by The Goffer yesterday and this is radically different ground and Impervious whilst high class carries a boffo penalty and has to give weight to geldings.
 
The ground at Punchestown is going to be very testing today, and I think the head of the market in the G3 novice chase might just get found-out.

I reckon conditions will play into the hands of Minella Crooner, who really hasn’t done a great deal wrong in his career, and I think rates a good bet against the front three at 6/1 (currently around 8.0 on the exchange).
 
There is a horse running tomorrow I made a note of last time it ran just because it shortened from 80/1 to 14s before drifting back out to 80/1.
7/8,10/12,11/11 and last time slow away 8/10
All over 7f and tomorrow steps up to nearly 1m 2f.first hcap.

9/2 into 11/4 daughter of golden horn.

I personally wont be backing it. Only 7 run.
 
Guess you're referring to Mamara Star?
Past form rubbish, and clearly fancied from a very capable yard.
Might well win, but not my idea of an 11/4 fav, at all.
 
Last edited:
Tinker Toy 7.30K Was reckoned not quick enough for 6f lto, but he had a bad trip, on the outside all the way and against better horses than today's fav beat last week.
Reckon he has the speed for this.
4/1 general.
 
Back
Top