What are you backing Today? Part 2

My ex has been banging on about Desert Hero and strongly fancied him for the Derby but when I looked yesterday, he wasn’t quoted. Guess he should be a shoe-in for a handicap though?
 
Wasn't he keen on Desert Crown back in the day?

It's another very quiet day for me in terms of races in which to bet and this is what I'm thinking so far (copied/edited where necessary and pasted from my Friday evening missive):

Nwb 2.25 - The market looks to have this one sussed other than perhaps Yibir maybe should be odds-on. I’ll be happy to get involved at 6/4 to reasonable money.

Nwb 3.35 - This is arguably a substandard renewal with no runner rated higher than 121. However, I was very taken by Mutasaabeq the other week and if there is a proper G1 horse in the field it is probably him. My slight worry is that this might be a bit soon after Newmarket and he could bounce but a biggish each-way bet looks reasonably safe, that caveat apart.

Nwb 4.10 - Jane Chapple-Hyam is one of the shrewdest operators out there and I reckon something as well handicapped as Intellogent will probably be targeting the Hunt Cup. I’m happy to gamble that that’s the case and ignore him here. Dawn Of Liberation’s rating is tenuous, based on a small-field win in a conditions race that might not be too reliable but at the price is worth chancing each-way. Beringer has obviously had issues that have restricted him to just a handful of career runs and again I imagine they’ll want to exploit a good mark in a more valuable race in due course. Outbreak took his form to a completely new level last time and is another candidate for the bounce but a follow-up win here would be no surprise. Wanees was one of the favourites early in the week of a Lincoln that is working out ridiculously well but he ended up very weak and disappointed. He’s almost certainly up to having a say here. It’s a very tight race all in all but I’m going to take a chance on Outbreak with a saver on Dawn Of Liberation and some sickness insurance on Intellogent.

Nwm 3.50 - I don’t see too much point in over-thinking this. Star Of Orion is so far clear he’s a must bet – each-way for safety – along with an each-way double with Mutasaabeq.

As an aside, I was intrigued to see on TV this morning that My Prospero is something like five pounds clear of the field. I'm not sure where that line of form comes from and it would seem that Timeform are dissing Mutasaabeq's impressive show last time. I suppose we'll see either today or in due course.
 
Hoping for a bit of recovery after a terrible week at York, easily my worst punting track. Stakes were low because of this but it still hurt.

At Newbury I did back My Prospero after decs came out at 6s and I've added Modern Games in a dutch. I'm not really getting the fuss with Laurel, her form does not justify favouritism imo and Mutasaabeq is a small field allowed to dominate Group 2 horse. He's also way too short. It's over further in the Champion Stakes but My Prospero owns the best single piece of form in this race and is fourth fav - that can only be incorrect.

Other main bet is Acotango at Newbury at 7/2. price taken last night. He went into my tracker after his Haydock second behind a horse that's won well since. Solid chance.

There are other minor fancies today - the likes of Havana Blue and Chartwell House in the 3.15 at Newmarket (both face tough tasks honestly) and Atrium and Wanees at Newbury. I have put them in some ew multis.
 
I've done Acotango aswell, and one of DO's, Outbreak. They're my strongest fancies today. I still think Atrium could be a nice horse but I reckon he might come right later in the season.

Good luck all today.
 
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Shaquille 1.50Nb
Strange the odds-on Gp2 winning colt drops down a few classes here,and the Doyler renewing acquaintance with mine and a gp1 entry looks worth a poke at the current 4/1.
 
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Vandelpark 3.55R
12/1 B365
Likes track & ground, good jock up.Ran well lto to finish 3rd on unsuitable ground(1st & 2nd have won since).
Bred to improve for trip. Should place,at least.
 
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reet hard said:
Vandelpark 3.55R
12/1 B365
Likes track & ground, good jock up.Ran well lto to finish 3rd on unsuitable ground(1st & 2nd have won since).
Bred to improve for trip. Should place,at least.
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Sunk by a steady pace.
The best laid plans of mice and men,eh.:whistle:
 
reet hard said:
Blackrod 6.35W
9/1 Hills
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I haven't looked at the race, reet, but this strikes me as the kind of horse discussed on the other thread and enters the realms of 'is tonight the night?'

I backed it the other week (presumably its most recent race but haven't checked) because I think it has a big race in it this season so I would wonder if they would want to ruin a potentially winning chance in a big Saturday/festival handicap by winning a much lesser [presumably since it's a midweek evening] race here?

Hope it wins for you.

Edit - I see it is 6lbs lower than when 11/2 and not beaten far in the Wokingham last summer. It's also changed trainer twice in the last year or so. Maybe it needs to get back up a few pounds to get into a race like the Wokingham but there would be plenty of other good pots to go for off its mark with no danger of missing the cut.
 
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Truth is;his capable trainer banged him up in class on his 2nd run for him, which looks a sure way to bring him on, and his backform is strong enough to pick these up and carry them.
Poor draw, but if he means business, his capable pilot will have him up their early.Bit of a punt, but worth it at 9/1
 
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reet hard said:
Truth is;his capable trainer banged him up in class on his 2nd run for him, which looks a sure way to bring him on, and his backform is strong enough to pick these up and carry them.
Poor draw, but if he means business, his capable pilot will have him up their early.Bit of a punt, but worth it at 9/1
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Yes, I do see all that and totally agree about his backform. That's why I would have him on my radar for a better race than this. I also agree that if this is a serious target for him then the price is massive.
 
Just watched the replay of Blackrod's race.

If I'd backed it I'd have been happy that it was trying through the first three furlongs but its short-lived effort looked more down to the horse either not being fit enough to go with them or not wanting to and the jockey gave up pretty quickly.

One of those instances that I wouldn't put down to not being off (unless it just wasn't fit) and more like maybe the horse is in decline.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just watched the replay of Blackrod's race.

If I'd backed it I'd have been happy that it was trying through the first three furlongs but its short-lived effort looked more down to the horse either not being fit enough to go with them or not wanting to and the jockey gave up pretty quickly.

One of those instances that I wouldn't put down to not being off (unless it just wasn't fit) and more like maybe the horse is in decline.
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Nah,knew it was a chancy bet, but ran like an unfit horse imo, may perform better for a bigger purse,in time.
 
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SOLDIERS MINUTE 700A 7/2
Ran 2nd in the ayr silver cup 2021 and hadnt run on turf until last saturday when he ran unplaced but wasnt beaten far and had to switch a couple of times.
Rated around 100 on the a/w.
 
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