What are you backing Today? Part 2

reet hard said:
Clochette 5.45E
13/2 Hills
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Tough luck, reet, I'm backing her too (as a saver):

... The saver will be Clochette. I’m wary about backing 3yos against their elders at this time of year but she’s rated on her form stepped up to a mile last time in a Listed race and she’s likely to be better for dropping back in trip on this track in this weaker company.
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Well done backers of Emily Upjohn. That was a brilliant performance for a seasonal debut in an all-age G1. I thought it was brilliant by Dettori too.

She'll be hard to beat from now on.
 
In this race coming up, Dual Identity is my biggest bet of the day but I have to own up to being concerned about any sign of positives in the market. Maybe my saver, Masakela (11/1 taken on Wednesday) will rescue me.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In this race coming up, Dual Identity is my biggest bet of the day but I have to own up to being concerned about any sign of positives in the market. Maybe my saver, Masakela (11/1 taken on Wednesday) will rescue me.
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Chance Lord Protector could go well, but might need more of a straight track
 
I should really have got my money back with Dual Identity. Missed the kick and stopped in his run in the straight. It looked to me like the jockey gave up a wee bit too readily so maybe today wasn't really a big target after all. I had him each-way to four places and can't help thinking he'd have been fourth at worst with better luck.

Masekela a big disappointment. I wonder what they're lining it up for.

Well done anyone who backed Cadillac. Pretty much pissed up.
 
Forca Timao 3.55 Epsom 16-1 generally

By the time of this race, Forca will the 2nd runner to go from that Newbury race a couple of weeks ago (Old Smoke runs in the 3.40 Muss)

The Epsom race looks pretty hot in its own right, but 16s seems fair.
 
chaumi said:
Forca Timao 3.55 Epsom 16-1 generally

By the time of this race, Forca will the 2nd runner to go from that Newbury race a couple of weeks ago (Old Smoke runs in the 3.40 Muss)

The Epsom race looks pretty hot in its own right, but 16s seems fair.
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I got both through as tracker alerts and am backing the double.
 
Proper betting material at Epsom today.

These are my thoughts, along with my ratings for the Dash, just to see how they get on.

12.50 - I’ve taken 8/1 (ew, 2pl) Escobar. I suspect he’s probably eyeing up a mega-handicap down the line but he’s joint second-top on ORs here and a narrow win might see the handicapper leave him alone. The Godolphin is the obvious alternative but he’s very tight.

1.30 Will the real Auguste Rodin stand up? I’m pretty much expecting he will as I thought his Guineas run was more promising than at first sight when I reviewed it earlier today. There’s no doubt he was looked after once it was clear he wasn’t going forward three furlongs out and that kindness might well be repaid in spades. However, I’ll only be having enough on him to cover my other bets in the race, which are small ones on longshots. I got 130/1 (boosted) King Of Steel earlier in the week because I know Varian is not one to be tilting at windmills. The colt was only 12/1 for the Futurity and still holds an entry in the Irish Derby so is clearly still well thought of. The other one I’ve backed is Dear My Friend at 117/1 (boosted, BOG and 4 places). I’m reading a bit between the lines here but Muscutt – fine jockey though he is – is not one of Johnston’s main go-to riders but Atzeni is and I fancy Dear My Friend to finish ahead of his 16/1 stablemate. But how good a renewal this is remains to be seen, which is why I can’t help thinking – see what I’m doing here? – Auguste Rodin might just blow them away.

2.10 According to the gallops reports from Newmarket that I’ve been following, Patapova has been impressing so I’m going to back her to improve past the worthy favourite and hope for the best.

3.20 (BO - Best Odds at time of compilation, Thursday afternoon)
[TABLE="width: 721"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]MON
121
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Zarzyni
[/TD]
[TD]D&N Barron
[/TD]
[TD]C Beasley
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mountain Peak
[/TD]
[TD]Ed Walker
[/TD]
[TD]T Marquand
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Riddiford
[/TD]
[TD]John Quinn
[/TD]
[TD]Marco Ghiani
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]e s
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Silky Wilkie
[/TD]
[TD]K R Burke
[/TD]
[TD]Clifford Lee
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Alligator Alley
[/TD]
[TD]David O'Meara
[/TD]
[TD]Jason Watson
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]AT
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] One Night Stand
[/TD]
[TD]Scott Dixon
[/TD]
[TD]P J McDonald
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]A
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Look Out Louis
[/TD]
[TD]Julie Camacho
[/TD]
[TD]Barry McHugh
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mokaatil
[/TD]
[TD]Ian Williams
[/TD]
[TD]SD Bowen 7
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sampers Seven
[/TD]
[TD]Michael Appleby
[/TD]
[TD]G Cheyne
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ancient Times
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Eustace
[/TD]
[TD]Kaiya Fraser 7
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Angle Land
[/TD]
[TD]Robert Cowell
[/TD]
[TD]Hayley Turner
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lihou
[/TD]
[TD]David Evans
[/TD]
[TD]Hollie Doyle
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Vintage Clarets
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Fahey
[/TD]
[TD]Oisin Murphy
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Navello
[/TD]
[TD]George Boughey
[/TD]
[TD]Andrea Atzeni
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Live In The Moment
[/TD]
[TD]Alice Haynes
[/TD]
[TD]Kieran O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Papa Don't Preach
[/TD]
[TD]Kevin Frost
[/TD]
[TD]William Pyle 7
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]AT
115oed
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Recon Mission
[/TD]
[TD]Tony Carroll
[/TD]
[TD]M Phillips 3
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Clarendon House
[/TD]
[TD]Robert Cowell
[/TD]
[TD]Daniel Muscutt
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]? +?
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Thin Blue Line
[/TD]
[TD]Keith Dalgleish
[/TD]
[TD]Cam Hardie
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Came From The Dark
[/TD]
[TD]Ed Walker
[/TD]
[TD]Saffie Osborne
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I have a terrible record in this race but I love it – the fastest five furlongs in the world. It’s an absolutely mental race and I’m not convinced it goes to the form horse yet it doesn’t really make sense to go against the form horses! The prices point to its being okay to go mob-handed in this renewal. I’ll spread a couple of points across the top rated and a few others and hope for a profit. Tom Marquand for Mountain Peak looks a strong shout and he’ll be the main bet.

4.30 - If Lucander is trying he wins. End of. And that makes him worth risking at huge odds. He may be targeting something bigger at Ascot a couple of weeks hence but he’ll be up against Godolphin bandits and the like and this is a pot worth chasing. Sea King and Sheer Rocks are next best since they are likely to improve for their reappearance runs which were already an improvement on previous form. Caius Chorister arguably falls into the same category but the bookies are all over him.

5.05 - I reckon Mr Wagyu is the bet of the entire weekend and I’ve gone in heavily at the price (with BOG). I’m not too worried about Venturous who looks in decline and it looks to me like Mr Wagyu has been prepping for this, which he won last year off 2lbs lower before showing further improvement. I’ve also done the double with Lucander.
 
Backed Clarendon House and Military Order at Epsom, reasons in the ante and Derby threads. Only one tracker out today, Lion of War at Musselbrough. This horse ran well at the track in April behind Finn's Charm and Gincident (won since) but the mile that day seemed inadequate and I was happy to back him stepped up to 10f at the Guineas meeting. Unfortunately he was all at sea in the dip before staying on once he met the rising ground. With the form of that race being franked since I'm giving him another chance at the price.
 
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passenger for fun.
Jiwin 2:50 Doncaster, 9/2 atm - liked the look of this on debut run at Yarmouth.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
12.50 - I’ve taken 8/1 (ew, 2pl) Escobar. I suspect he’s probably eyeing up a mega-handicap down the line but he’s joint second-top on ORs here and a narrow win might see the handicapper leave him alone. The Godolphin is the obvious alternative but he’s very tight.
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Market said it all. Looked to be trying but probably not 100% ready yet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
1.30 Will the real Auguste Rodin stand up? I’m pretty much expecting he will as I thought his Guineas run was more promising than at first sight when I reviewed it earlier today. There’s no doubt he was looked after once it was clear he wasn’t going forward three furlongs out and that kindness might well be repaid in spades. However, I’ll only be having enough on him to cover my other bets in the race, which are small ones on longshots. I got 130/1 (boosted) King Of Steel earlier in the week because I know Varian is not one to be tilting at windmills. The colt was only 12/1 for the Futurity and still holds an entry in the Irish Derby so is clearly still well thought of. The other one I’ve backed is Dear My Friend at 117/1 (boosted, BOG and 4 places). I’m reading a bit between the lines here but Muscutt – fine jockey though he is – is not one of Johnston’s main go-to riders but Atzeni is and I fancy Dear My Friend to finish ahead of his 16/1 stablemate. But how good a renewal this is remains to be seen, which is why I can’t help thinking – see what I’m doing here? – Auguste Rodin might just blow them away.
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Tidy profit on the race so any doubts about the ride Moore gave him - listening to O'Brien it sound like confidence on Moore's part but that immediate post-race puff of the cheeks looked more like relief than joy - are easily forgiven.
 
Silkie Wilkie (carrying a win saver) was pretty unlucky there, having to wait for a run and then stumbling slightly. Beaten a nose and was a good neck clear two strides after the line. TV is saying he got two hits on the nose.
 
Very unlucky Dessie. I didn't even notice him, was shouting Clarendon House home, gutted the Boughey horse nutted him, and then found out I was third.
 
Desert Orchid said:
4.30 - If Lucander is trying he wins. End of. And that makes him worth risking at huge odds. He may be targeting something bigger at Ascot a couple of weeks hence but he’ll be up against Godolphin bandits and the like and this is a pot worth chasing. Sea King and Sheer Rocks are next best since they are likely to improve for their reappearance runs which were already an improvement on previous form. Caius Chorister arguably falls into the same category but the bookies are all over him.
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I'm not convinced it was trying, like the Johnston horse in the earlier race anchored out the back off a slow pace, and did very well to be involved at the finish. This was a decent-sized bet so the place return at 33/1 was okay. Sea King didn't run and Sheer Rocks (8/1 this morning) showed the value of having savers in races like this so more profit on the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sat, Epsom 5.05 - Mr Wagyu 11/2 - nap of the weekend for me. One for the 'should be odds-on' thread, even?
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He was trying and that's all I'll ever ask but he probably did too much through the first half from his wide draw. He won't go up for this so all the big handicaps remain an option.

And the place double with Lucander (33/1) paid 15/1 so that covered the big bet on Mr W with plenty to spare.
 
Marb said:
I fancied Ernie's Valentine the last day but he was bitterly disappointing. It was his first run this season though so I suppose I shouldn't abandon him just yet.

That said, I respect Lyndon B at this track and Nizaaka could run well back in a handicap. But I'll stick with Ernie's as the selection. He's a decent price aswell. His form with Harry Three from last season isn't bad at all and Ernie's may have a big race or two to run this season.
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Ernie's Valentine declared to run at a course he has won at before in Leicester on Tuesday in the class four at 3.30.

He must have an excellent chance after his third in that class three at Goodwood the last day. Tom Marquand booked for Tuesday aswell.
 
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It'll be interesting to see where they go with Lucander on the run up to August. This run didn't rule out him going well over another 2f, if that's what this was all about.

Disappointing that Sea King got pulled again. That's the second time, I think. The Plate would look a tough(er) call now.

And Encourageable finally gets a go today in the 3.45 Nott. Started at around 8 yesterday, was out to generally 10s this morning, back in blue since then. I'm guessing they have to win this to have a chance of running at Ascot, and maybe that's why he didn't go to York or Chester last weekend. Maybe JH sees this as the better chance. The Lincoln can be safely ignored, but there are two or three others probably eyeing up this one for the future and they'll all be going for the win most likely. Difficult to know what to think here, but the current 9s with a couple might be worth a small interest.

If he wins handsomely, the 33-1 for the Hunt Cup shrinks most likely.
 
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