What are you backing Today? Part 2

chaumi said:
It'll be interesting to see where they go with Lucander on the run up to August. This run didn't rule out him going well over another 2f, if that's what this was all about.
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I must admit I thought his run flattened out in the last half furlong but he was given an awful lot to do so maybe it wasn't that surprising. Not definitely handicapped to win a big 'un on my figures, though. It was the weakness of the opposition yesterday that had me keen on him. I can't see the handicapper dropping for yesterday either.

The only way he wins an Ebor is if he improves for going up in trip, which I don't see either.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He was trying and that's all I'll ever ask but he probably did too much through the first half from his wide draw. He won't go up for this so all the big handicaps remain an option.

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I have to disagree with you D.i didnt think it tried to win.it imo just did enough not to go up or come down.
I watched his two runs at the curragh where he certainly tried but I dont think Jason give him a hard time in the last 110 yards.
I've backed him for the wokingham but ascot might be too stiff but certainly the stewards cup would be the race for me.
It's just my opinion but yesterday was only 38 grand.the wokingham is 94,stewards cup 128 and the 2 at the curragh are 60 and 90 and the ayr gold cup 77.
 
I agree the jockey was easy on him late but I thought that was because he knew he was safe where he was and wasn't going to win.
 
I think I accidentally pressed 'draft' option for my blog and can see a sort of nut symbol by the edit icon. I presume this tells me that it's still in draft mode but I don't know how to remove that and make the post show up for eeveryone else.

Any ideas?
 
Cheers.

Still never knew how to turn my 'draft' into the rea thing. Had to copy and paste my original and then 'create new thread' again.
 
Marb said:
Ernie's Valentine declared to run at a course he has won at before in Leicester on Tuesday in the class four at 3.30.

He must have an excellent chance after his third in that class three at Goodwood the last day. Tom Marquand booked for Tuesday aswell.
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Ernie's beaten into second place by the 28/1 outsider of the field...I couldn't make it up. Anyhow, he is showing a bit of consistency, and another race on another day surely awaits.

I've not checked the odds yet but I quite like the look of Single in Nottinghams 4.35 tomorrow. This is a horse who ran fifth against HMS President at Newmarket first time out this season which was a cracking effort. Another horse I think might have a live chance in the Pitman's Derby in a few weeks called Adjuvant was second, so my theory is it's very good form. I will be putting a line through Single's last run, as I think this mare could still be well handicapped to win a lower class affair which she encounters here.
 
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Newbury 5.55 - Raintown 16/1 - tracker alert, ran well in the London Gold Cup race we discussed at the time, and was slightly unlucky that day not to have finished closer. This is a fair drop in class and Luke Morris takes over from the claimer. Probably more than twice his true odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 5.55 - Raintown 16/1 - tracker alert, ran well in the London Gold Cup race we discussed at the time, and was slightly unlucky that day not to have finished closer. This is a fair drop in class and Luke Morris takes over from the claimer. Probably more than twice his true odds.
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In to 9/1 tops. Probably just the market correcting itself but nice to be ahead of it.
 
Yeah, Raintown is in my tracker as well but I kind of wanted him stepped up to 12f before I backed him. It's a tricky day because I have another alert horse, Installation at Nottingham, who I wanted over 7f and he's liable to get outpaced over 6 again like he did at Hamilton. The solution is just to stick them in an each way double and hope for the best. My main bet today is Ertebat at Kempton. He's been noted in the horses to follow thread but confidence is being tempered by a massive drift this morning.
 
I was going to post earlier that if it was a gamble on Raintown then you could guarantee that there would be 2 non runners and a rule 4
And I was right. Only 2 places now and 25p rule 4.
 
reet hard said:
Poor pace, relative to most of today's card.
I'd bet him again,given a stffer test.
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Raintown's run at Newbury was off a very slow early pace over 10F and the entire 14 runner field were only separated by 6.25L at the finish. I'm wondering whether it may turn out to be a trappy race to follow.
 
Euronymous said:
My main bet today is Ertebat at Kempton. He's been noted in the horses to follow thread but confidence is being tempered by a massive drift this morning.
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What do we think happened here? Horse not fit and this was just a spin out before the real target next time out?

I'm assuming you were tempted (as was I) by the strong but slightly under the radar collateral form (two degrees of separation from Shaquille) and/or decent previous sectionals. But even with a good run it was likely we weren't on the winner as New Endeavour did it very easily. Which is an important thing to remember for tracker horses in terms of staking plans (or whether to maintain a watching brief); not to forget to properly assess the opposition.
 
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