What are you backing Today? Part 2

ep1987 said:
Raintown's run at Newbury was off a very slow early pace over 10F and the entire 14 runner field were only separated by 6.25L at the finish. I'm wondering whether it may turn out to be a trappy race to follow.
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We've had 4 runners from the race with none seemingly performing to any close level. Forca Timao ran OK last week but looked to run himself out from the front.

So, there's another potential theory here (which may be complete b0ll0ks) before we write the race off...and that's that is was a strong race, and the competitive nature took more out of the majority of the runners than might be expected. Time will tell more...but if the theory does hold some weight...there can still be some chances to see a few come home at nice prices through the coming months once they've properly recovered.
 
I'd suggest that a fast ground 10f around around Epsom wasn't enough of a test for FT, which probably explains why he was ridden in that manner.
Imo, it's a question of waiting for the right circumstances,rather than following them blindly (not suggesting you did,btw).
 
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It's a very quiet day for me (the lull between Epsom and Ascot).

Haydoch 1.15 - Equilateral and Raasel dutched as per the 'odds-on' thread.

Haydock 2.25 - Onesmoothoperator 10/1 ew 4 places

Haydock 3.00 - Sea Silk Road 17/2 ew 3 places
 
Brilliant card at Haydock today.
1.50 Equilateral Nap
2.25 Get Shirty NB
3.00 Sea Silk Road
3.35 Jumby
 
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I like Haydock's card today. I find myself being able to resist cliff horse Korker, I hope he runs average and drops a few pounds - I think the Portland is his race.

I'm in a good possie in the John of Gaunt which was priced horribily ante-post with El Cabello at 6s and I've put The Astrologist in a Desert Crown double. I don't think any single race made me as mad as Jumby winning the Hungerford last year. **** that horse.

Only other bet is Chartwell House in the 7f handicap. His form has been solid all season and the last run behind Havana Blue was decent. 365 opened at 10s yesterday afternoon but that price has long gone.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
It's a very quiet day for me (the lull between Epsom and Ascot).

Haydoch 1.15 - Equilateral and Raasel dutched as per the 'odds-on' thread.

Haydock 2.25 - Onesmoothoperator 10/1 ew 4 places

Haydock 3.00 - Sea Silk Road 17/2 ew 3 places
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I've never had much time for the Haydock CoC and am glad he's retiring. At the last Haydock meeting there was some discussion about whether there might have been a golden highway up the near rail but today's sprint winners have come up the other side. I have to wonder if he's altered the ground on the near side and over-compensated.

I'm not suggesting Equilateral would have beaten [the very much improving] Regional but he never really seemed on terms.

Onesmoothoperator got a tactical ride of dwarf proportions, held up too far back off a modest pace before staying on late. The place return is scant consolation.

Sea Silk Road would just about have covered my outlay for the day but for the R4. She came from the back too and I was genuinely worried that she was getting a similarly poor ride - I can't always tell these things because I nearly always forget to check the on-screen odometer - but the leaders were overtaken so I assume Marquand got his fractions right.

We move on.
 
Imo Equilateral was beaten by a freak break (in a course record time) by the winner who hit the lids at the perfect time;something he'll find very hard to repeat, and almost certain to be overbet next time out.
Few will be sorry to see the CoC leave, but the only bias I saw today was a pace bias.
 
Regional certainly broke well but was happy to take a lead thereafter and was still going away from those around him in the final half-furlong despite taking a keen hold in the early stages.

He is a candidate for the bounce if he comes out too soon but I do think he is just improving a great deal. He peaked at 103 last summer but started this season on 100, went up to 105 for his York win and will probably go up to 112 for today. I imagine that will put him beyond handicaps so they'll need to be careful where they take him as he's maybe not up to G1s yet.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Regional certainly broke well but was happy to take a lead thereafter and was still going away from those around him in the final half-furlong despite taking a keen hold in the early stages.

He is a candidate for the bounce if he comes out too soon but I do think he is just improving a great deal. He peaked at 103 last summer but started this season on 100, went up to 105 for his York win and will probably go up to 112 for today. I imagine that will put him beyond handicaps so they'll need to be careful where they take him as he's maybe not up to G1s yet.
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Nah; the maths don't tell the whole story.
The winner shot from the stalls and conferred a large pace advantage to the far side of the track - to such a degree that the fav (which ran a blinder,imo) was the only one to make 1st 10 from this side of the track.
Imo,Regional's a million to repeat that break, and will need a sharp track and fast ground to capitalise.
Time will tell.
 
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reet hard said:
Nah; the maths don't tell the whole story.
The winner shot from the stalls and conferred a large pace advantage to the far side of the track - to such a degree that the fav (which ran a blinder,imo) was the only one to make 1st 10 from this side of the track.
Imo,Regional's a million to repeat that break, and will need a sharp track and fast ground to capitalise.
Time will tell.
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I look forward to seeing the sectionals.

Also, how do you regard the run of the fourth, which tracked Equilateral on the nearside and appears to have massively outrun its OR of 93?
 
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