What are you backing Today? Part 2
- Thread starter dvds2000
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I'm sticking these in the Saturday Super Heinz. The Marble jinx needs to be broken!
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Saturday, Sandown 1.50 - Equality 13/2, 4 places - I think this is an absolute steal of a price but it's based on my own numbers (obviously). Last time time at Windsor it won a decent 5f hcap by no fewer than 5½ lengths, no mean feat at the best of times. The runner up had been a half-length second the time before, and subsequently a 3-length fourth, off a pound lower, the third had three runs previously been a "quickened clear, comfortably” winner off 3lbs lower, the fourth had been a 3-length winner the time before off 7lbs lower and a 2¾ length third subsequently. Equality absolutely destroyed them in a good time. The handicapper has, I think, been very lenient in raising it only 6lbs. 5½ lengths at five furlongs is about 20lbs. He won’t be caught on the rail out of four and 13/2 is a huge price with four places a fantastic safety net for a big each-way bet.
N/R
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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B365 have read your piece - now 9/2 from 8/1 earlier.
Probably due as much to the NR as anything else.
PlaceBacker
Senior Jockey
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- 2,813
8.25 Haydock-Sherood
Each Way @ 7-1
Got a hotpot to beat but is progressing in the right direction
Each Way @ 7-1
Got a hotpot to beat but is progressing in the right direction
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Sums up the year. I'm punting really well this season, beating the odds, backing the best horse in the race, just not getting any luck.
barjon
Rookie
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- 3,738
You too modest
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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- 24,859
My thoughts for tomorrow (I might be too busy to post this then) and nearly all my bets are on. Some of this is already posted on other threads. I suppose the weather might fvck up all these plans and hopes but hey...
As I said earlier in the week, put the cream of the Sandown and Haydock cards together and you have a proper day's racing.
San 1.50 - I thought when I started this race I might be struggling to come up with a selection but Equality might be a good thing. Its chance looks only average on ORs and RPRs but its win last time reads exceptionally well. Last time at Windsor it won a decent 5f hcap by no fewer than 5½ lengths, no mean feat at the best of times. The runner up had been a half-length second the time before, and subsequently a 3-length fourth, off a pound lower, the third had three runs previously been a ‘quickened clear, comfortably” winner off 3lbs lower, the fourth had been a 3-length winner the time before off 7lbs lower and a 2¾ length third subsequently. Equality absolutely destroyed them in a good time. The handicapper has, I think, been very lenient in raising it only 6lbs. 5½ lengths at five furlongs is about 20lbs. He won’t be caught on the rail out of four and 13/2 is absolutely a huge price and four places is a fantastic safety net for a big each-way bet. I could have fancied Get Ahead for a saver but the wide draw here could compromise his chance a bit. Equilateral (drawn 10) has already been taken out and I wouldn’t be surprised if Get Ahead followed suit.
San 2.25 - There has to be a fair chance some of these will have half an eye on the Golden Mile but this is a big enough pot to be going for, There was a lot of money for Perotto going into the Hunt Cup but he disappointed and backers would need to have a a lot of faith in the hood making a big impact. I couldn’t back him at single-figure odds for this. Intellogent and Orbaan are the ones with the best claims and the former might have scope to defy a penalty for this at Goodwood. I like Shoemark but he isn’t a go-to jockey for the trainer so it will be a small win bet (14s taken) in case a jog down the park is on the agenda. Orbaan (22/1, 5 places taken) has to be a punt at the big price too although his draw isn’t ideal. I’ll save on Major Partnership (16/1, 4 places taken).
San 3.40 (BO = best odds at the time of compiling, earlier this afternoon)
[TABLE="width: 444"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]BO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Emily Upjohn [/TD]
[TD]120 [/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]11/8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Paddington [/TD]
[TD]123 [/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]p t +t?[/TD]
[TD]11/10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dubai Honour [/TD]
[TD]122 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]11/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] West Wind Blows [/TD]
[TD]111 [/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
There has to be an element of disappointment at there being only four runners for one of our top races of the entire year but the match between the ‘big two’ is fascinating. For Emily Upjohn to take a decent G1 Coronation Cup first time up was no mean feat and there’s no reason to believe she won’t improve for it. She’s probably capable of hitting 130 on the scale (127 raw). Paddington impressed over the mile of the St James’s Palace and is certainly bred for further. On dosage figures, 12f should be well within his scope, let alone this intermediary distance. There has to be a good chance he’ll improve for stepping up to this trip and just 5lbs’ improvement would take him up to 130, which would put nothing between him and the filly. It’s a race to watch, savour and hope that we see both draw well clear of the field. There’s no need to bet in races like this.
San 4.15 - I’ve taken 33/1, 4 places, BOG, Aikhal. He went up to 111 for winning a 10f G3 at the Curragh for Aiden O'Brien last summer and drops to 102 here after a jog round at the back over 12f at Ascot the other week on his debut for the Osbornes. He wears blinkers for the first time. The John Smith might be the target and a penalty would be a problem there but 33/1 strikes me as too long for one of his [historical] ability. I suspect a run into third or fourth might be the plan rather than the win but you never know... Moktasaab, Aramaic and Paradias are the others who appeal most in what looks a tight, competitive race. All three will probably need a penalty to get into the John Smith so I’ll spread some dosh across them too.
Hay 2.05 - With royal Ascot just by, now is the time for me to start showing more interest in the 3yo handicaps and this is a pretty valuable one which I imagine many of these will have been targeting, the trainers in red having a good record in races of this type at the track, with this race in bold from few attempts. (I think it’s only been going for a few years.) I’ve also added an extra column to denote those with proven form at the trip (two ticks) and those likely on breeding to be suited to it or even improve for it (one tick). Midnight Lion strikes me as a strong percentage shout. I’ve taken 14/1, 4 places, BOG. Chillhi and Galactic Jack are worth savers.
Hay 2.40 - This looks between the top two. They dutch at around 10/11, which I imagine a big-hitting pro being interested in. There maybe shouldn’t be quite as much between them in odds so a small bet on Aristia with the BOG is my play but I’m not exactly expecting to win.
Hay 3.15 - There’s a fair spread of success among trainers in this race. Many will be targeting it but it’s such a tough race it usually just goes to the best handicapped one barring ill luck in running. Haggas appears to have a strong hand with Gaassee and La Yakel but Egan is the owner’s most successful jockey this season so I’ve backed Maksud. Howth strikes me as having been brought along nicely, the trainer is no mug and Morris looks a serious booking so I’ve also backed it (ew, 5 places) and old Euchen Glen (ditto, BOG), but a win for any of the +p types would be no surprise. It’s a very hot race, it always is.
Hay 4.25 - This race has only been going for three years as far as I can see but 3yos have won twice. That said both were rated higher than 100 and one was a 6/4 favourite. The two 3yos in this race are the front two in the betting but I think they are opposable so that opens up value – in theory – elsewhere. I have this between Safe Voyage, Kingdom Come, Abduction and Mount Athos. They combine at around 5/2 which strikes me as very good value so that’s what I’ve done, with Abduction taken each-way.
Be lucky, everyone!
As I said earlier in the week, put the cream of the Sandown and Haydock cards together and you have a proper day's racing.
San 1.50 - I thought when I started this race I might be struggling to come up with a selection but Equality might be a good thing. Its chance looks only average on ORs and RPRs but its win last time reads exceptionally well. Last time at Windsor it won a decent 5f hcap by no fewer than 5½ lengths, no mean feat at the best of times. The runner up had been a half-length second the time before, and subsequently a 3-length fourth, off a pound lower, the third had three runs previously been a ‘quickened clear, comfortably” winner off 3lbs lower, the fourth had been a 3-length winner the time before off 7lbs lower and a 2¾ length third subsequently. Equality absolutely destroyed them in a good time. The handicapper has, I think, been very lenient in raising it only 6lbs. 5½ lengths at five furlongs is about 20lbs. He won’t be caught on the rail out of four and 13/2 is absolutely a huge price and four places is a fantastic safety net for a big each-way bet. I could have fancied Get Ahead for a saver but the wide draw here could compromise his chance a bit. Equilateral (drawn 10) has already been taken out and I wouldn’t be surprised if Get Ahead followed suit.
San 2.25 - There has to be a fair chance some of these will have half an eye on the Golden Mile but this is a big enough pot to be going for, There was a lot of money for Perotto going into the Hunt Cup but he disappointed and backers would need to have a a lot of faith in the hood making a big impact. I couldn’t back him at single-figure odds for this. Intellogent and Orbaan are the ones with the best claims and the former might have scope to defy a penalty for this at Goodwood. I like Shoemark but he isn’t a go-to jockey for the trainer so it will be a small win bet (14s taken) in case a jog down the park is on the agenda. Orbaan (22/1, 5 places taken) has to be a punt at the big price too although his draw isn’t ideal. I’ll save on Major Partnership (16/1, 4 places taken).
San 3.40 (BO = best odds at the time of compiling, earlier this afternoon)
[TABLE="width: 444"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]BO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Emily Upjohn [/TD]
[TD]120 [/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]11/8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Paddington [/TD]
[TD]123 [/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]p t +t?[/TD]
[TD]11/10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dubai Honour [/TD]
[TD]122 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]11/1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] West Wind Blows [/TD]
[TD]111 [/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]25/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
There has to be an element of disappointment at there being only four runners for one of our top races of the entire year but the match between the ‘big two’ is fascinating. For Emily Upjohn to take a decent G1 Coronation Cup first time up was no mean feat and there’s no reason to believe she won’t improve for it. She’s probably capable of hitting 130 on the scale (127 raw). Paddington impressed over the mile of the St James’s Palace and is certainly bred for further. On dosage figures, 12f should be well within his scope, let alone this intermediary distance. There has to be a good chance he’ll improve for stepping up to this trip and just 5lbs’ improvement would take him up to 130, which would put nothing between him and the filly. It’s a race to watch, savour and hope that we see both draw well clear of the field. There’s no need to bet in races like this.
San 4.15 - I’ve taken 33/1, 4 places, BOG, Aikhal. He went up to 111 for winning a 10f G3 at the Curragh for Aiden O'Brien last summer and drops to 102 here after a jog round at the back over 12f at Ascot the other week on his debut for the Osbornes. He wears blinkers for the first time. The John Smith might be the target and a penalty would be a problem there but 33/1 strikes me as too long for one of his [historical] ability. I suspect a run into third or fourth might be the plan rather than the win but you never know... Moktasaab, Aramaic and Paradias are the others who appeal most in what looks a tight, competitive race. All three will probably need a penalty to get into the John Smith so I’ll spread some dosh across them too.
Hay 2.05 - With royal Ascot just by, now is the time for me to start showing more interest in the 3yo handicaps and this is a pretty valuable one which I imagine many of these will have been targeting, the trainers in red having a good record in races of this type at the track, with this race in bold from few attempts. (I think it’s only been going for a few years.) I’ve also added an extra column to denote those with proven form at the trip (two ticks) and those likely on breeding to be suited to it or even improve for it (one tick). Midnight Lion strikes me as a strong percentage shout. I’ve taken 14/1, 4 places, BOG. Chillhi and Galactic Jack are worth savers.
Hay 2.40 - This looks between the top two. They dutch at around 10/11, which I imagine a big-hitting pro being interested in. There maybe shouldn’t be quite as much between them in odds so a small bet on Aristia with the BOG is my play but I’m not exactly expecting to win.
Hay 3.15 - There’s a fair spread of success among trainers in this race. Many will be targeting it but it’s such a tough race it usually just goes to the best handicapped one barring ill luck in running. Haggas appears to have a strong hand with Gaassee and La Yakel but Egan is the owner’s most successful jockey this season so I’ve backed Maksud. Howth strikes me as having been brought along nicely, the trainer is no mug and Morris looks a serious booking so I’ve also backed it (ew, 5 places) and old Euchen Glen (ditto, BOG), but a win for any of the +p types would be no surprise. It’s a very hot race, it always is.
Hay 4.25 - This race has only been going for three years as far as I can see but 3yos have won twice. That said both were rated higher than 100 and one was a 6/4 favourite. The two 3yos in this race are the front two in the betting but I think they are opposable so that opens up value – in theory – elsewhere. I have this between Safe Voyage, Kingdom Come, Abduction and Mount Athos. They combine at around 5/2 which strikes me as very good value so that’s what I’ve done, with Abduction taken each-way.
Be lucky, everyone!
Last edited:
PlaceBacker
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2003
- Messages
- 2,813
3rd
Bet365 either know something nobody else does or are incredibly out of line with their price about Graphite in the 3:15 Haydock.
Best price 6/1 3rd fav with nearly all other books (Hills 12/1) yet they have him at 25/1 but somehow available at 32.0 on the exchange
Best price 6/1 3rd fav with nearly all other books (Hills 12/1) yet they have him at 25/1 but somehow available at 32.0 on the exchange
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I thought Paddington too enough time to get on top in the Irish 2000 guineas but they said he is progressing and 7lbs is a lot to be getting.
However Emily 7/4 Upjohn has a devastating turn of foot and in a field this size that can be very important.
She loves the course and if William Buick times it right and give Paddintong no chance of fighting back she can win this hands down.
However Emily 7/4 Upjohn has a devastating turn of foot and in a field this size that can be very important.
She loves the course and if William Buick times it right and give Paddintong no chance of fighting back she can win this hands down.
Last edited:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,859
Bet365 either know something nobody else does or are incredibly out of line with their price about Graphite in the 3:15 Haydock.
Best price 6/1 3rd fav with nearly all other books (Hills 12/1) yet they have him at 25/1 but somehow available at 32.0 on the exchange
Someone of influence has probably put it up and the market has gone daft.
After seeing your post I checked the race on oddschecker. The two big moves are him and Dark Jedi. Both were overpriced to begin with at 50s and 40s respectively and are in the top seven in my ratings table (DJ jt-3rd, G jt-6th but DJ 1pt off the top and G 2pts). They're both handicapped to go very close but it's hard to see either winning against improvers. They fall into the category of the type I tend to put up in the longshot thread but I let them go here.
Here's my ratings table:
[TABLE="width: 502"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
119+
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gaassee
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Howth
[/TD]
[TD]89
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]A
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Maksud
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]7/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dark Jedi
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]e
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Toshizou
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]? +?
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] La Yakel
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]+p s
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]4/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Graphite
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]AP
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Alright Sunshine
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]22/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sheer Rocks
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Onesmoothoperator
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Teumessias Fox
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Euchen Glen
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]+
120++
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Nolton Cross
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Scampi
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sir Rumi
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cumulonimbus
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]+p sl
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]7/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Wootton'Sun
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD]22/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Certain Lad
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,859
I took 11/2 Aristia yesterday assuming that she might go out to 6s or 13/2 but fvck me gently she's out to 10/1. To say I'm not expecting it to win is heading fast into desperation territory. She must have turned up with a leg missing or Dylan Kitts booked...
PlaceBacker
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2003
- Messages
- 2,813
6.52 Carlisle-Borough
Each Way @ 16-1 [BetUk]
Could be a live outsider
Each Way @ 16-1 [BetUk]
Could be a live outsider
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,859
Beef or Salmon
Rookie
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2013
- Messages
- 1,021
Great great shout DO, thank you!
barjon
Rookie
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2020
- Messages
- 3,738
Well done, sir (I did regret it!)
simmo
Senior Jockey
Excellent stuff DO!
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Never saw uour posr Des but that's beside the point excellent call