What are you backing Today? Part 2

barjon said:
Malc 2:25 Newmarket tomorrow, 4/1 atm. Ran a good second in the Norfolk at Ascot (albeit seemingly unfancied at 66/1) behind the out of the blue 150/1 winner, but in front of Elite Status and the AO’B runner His Majesty. There’s always something likely to jump out of the woodwork in these 2yo races, but it’s going to have to be pretty good to match that performance.
Click to expand...

I have very big figures for that Ascot race and the post-race comment was about the horse being better if it steps up in trip so you could maybe argue that 10/3-7/2 is 'way too big and on my own figures maybe even a candidate for the odds-on thread.
 
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Adelaide River 7.52L
Has much the strongest form in the race (imo), well drawn, and RM leaves Newmarket to take the ride.
6/1 B365
 
If anyone backed Northern Express at York there you have Mulrennan to thanks for an exquisite ride. Prominent enough in fifth turning for home he let everything else make their move and take a lead on him before putting the horse's head in front approaching the line.

I had no financial interest in the race 'cos it wasn't valuable enough so was able to watch relaxed.
 
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I've had some flutters on three tomorrow.

Ascot 1.45 Badri - I feel he can run well and I am putting a line through the last run. He's better than that. A competative race though. If he's there with a chance in the final half furlong I suppose I'll settle for that.

4.45 Saratoga Gold - I picked up on him through collateral form lines. He then unseated at York where I think he would have won. He then hacked up at Kempton recently. A major chance...even with the Marb jinx at play.

York 3.10 -Haunted Dream - This is a another seriously competative race, where the margins between winning, losing and everything in between might only be a few lengths. Anyway...I like this one's profile...ran in a red hot handicap at Royal Ascot where he stopped quickly at the business end...but probably needed that run.

He ran a creditable second place last week when staying on out the back to get second. I would presume they wouldn't have done much with him at home, just keeping him ticking over since then. A good each way chance I hope. I see DO has Sea The Casper at fancy prices as per the long shot thread, so good luck with that horse, DO.

Best of luck to all tomorrow.
 
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My thoughts on today's races [of interest to me], with ratings for the two big handicaps, written between Thursday afternoon/evening and Friday morning:

NWM 4.00 BET365 BUNBURY CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP)
[TABLE="width: 558"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
123+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD] Awaal
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD] Shining Blue
[/TD]
[TD]109
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD] Bless Him
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]17/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD] Biggles
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] First Folio
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]p AT
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] Spangled Mac
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD] Probe
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] Ropey Guest
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD] Gorak
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD] Streets Of Gold
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD] The Gatekeeper
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] Montassib
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]15/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD] Lethal Levi
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD] Rainbow Fire
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD] Popmaster
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]133 t
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]18/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] Star Of Orion
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]+
128
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD] Lir Speciale
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p AP
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] Cruyff Turn
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD] Accidental Agent
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]127d
131
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD] Snazzy Jazzy
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]123
[127oe]
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is always a brilliant race and I’m very fortunate to have a very good record in it. There’s no obviously outstanding record in the race as far as trainers and/or jockeys go, which suggests it tends to be just a well-handicapped horse that wins, and sometimes there’s scant evidence that the horse is well-handicapped beforehand. That might make it sound like guesswork. According to the form book stats – I’m no great believer in stats, it has to be said – Saeed bin Suroor has a phenomenal record in this type of race at this track and we know Godolphin actively target the mega-handicaps so Shining Blue is a bet. The middle of the track might have been advantaged on Thursday, which could change by Saturday, but right now it would seem Shining Blue also has a nice draw bang in the centre. As always, I’m focusing on the handful that look likely to at least hit the target figure for the race so Awaal, Biggles, First Folio and The Gatekeeper immediately spring to mind. Then I want to consider the ‘sleepers’ who are well in on historical figures but for one reason or another haven’t yet shown their true ability, if they still retain it. That would bring in Popmaster, Star Of Orion, Accidental Agent and Snazzy Jazzy. That might account for nearly half the field but it dismisses, for me, some of the popular fancies. I want to see Friday’s racing before making any further decisions.

Nwm 4.35 - Art Power is inconsistent but very smart on a going day. His two best career performances on the numbers are his two wins at the Curragh, in this year’s G2 Greenlands and the 2021 G3 Renaissance, winning both by big margins. He’s only ever run once at this track and that was in this race two years ago when he was beaten less than two lengths by Starman, but he raced with an outsider down the far side and may have been disadvantaged by that. He was clear over there and still put up his third top career run on RPRs. He may also have overdone the early pace as he was well ahead of the field at halfway and still in front inside the final furlong. He’s worth a bet at long odds. Kinross might prefer softer ground. Shaquille is a worthy favourite following his impressive win in the Commonwealth Cup, on which form he really should have the beating of Little Big Bear given that he also overcame a very slow start that day. Those would be my two against the field with preference for the three-year-old.

ASC 1.45 HERITAGE HANDICAP (Class 2)
[TABLE="width: 585"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
124
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD] Mountain Peak
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] Rohaan
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]126
[/TD]
[TD]t
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD] Equilateral
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]11/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] Call Me Ginger
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD] King's Lynn
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]e
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD] Dream Composer
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD] Bond Chairman
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD] Existent
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD] Raasel
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]128?
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]11/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] Vintage Clarets
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]AT
{120o}
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD] Get It
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD] Zarzyni
[/TD]
[TD]94
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]+
(130?)
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD] Hierarchy
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]o e
129 AP
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]Whenthedealinsdone
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD](126e)
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] Spoof
[/TD]
[TD]88
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] Badri
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD] Harry Brown
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] Arecibo
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD] The Big Board
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I hope the draw doesn’t spoil this. The stalls are on the near rail (high), which is where Mountain Peak won from last year although most of the action unfolded up the centre (Bond Chairman runner-up from 8) so they may well all run centre-to-near as they did last year, but if other results on Friday suggest faster ground on the far side they may head over that way, which might actually suit Mountain Peak. I think he’s a cracking bet at 20/1 off 8lbs lower than then. I’m interested in anything that can hit 125 or more on the scale so Mountain Peak, Equilateral, Call Me Ginger, Raasel, Zarzyni, Hierarchy and Whenthedealinsdone are all worth considering. I’m tempted to include Vintage Clarets because I’ve been so impressed with Connor Planas’s two rides on Quinault lately. He’s looked extraordinarily confident and cool and shown terrific judgment of pace on those two occasions, especially on Thursday when he never really looked like losing the race despite not asking the horse for absolutely everything in a very tight run to the line. I’ll have a closer look later and decide which to back but I’ll definitely be on the longshots at the best prices and place terms.

Asc 2.20 - see the other thread

Asc 4.05 - This seems to be a new race but it’s a pot worth winning. Only one bookie is pricing up the race at the moment so the Best Odds column is only a rough guide and I won’t be backing anything until most have their prices up. Depending on how much rain hits the track, perceptions and market moves could well fluctuate. Rain probably won’t help Lucander but will La Yakel which was pulled out of a recent big engagement because of fast ground. If he’s to have any chance of taking up his Ebor entry he’ll need to go up the ratings a fair bit from his current 92. 5lbs would get him into the top 30, not counting the Irish entries, and that probably wouldn’t be enough. 7lbs would get him into the top 25 but I’d expect at least three of the 20-odd Irish entries, including Vauban, no less, to run. It may be they’ll target something like the Old Rowley or some other £100+k race but he’d probably still need to go up 5lbs anyway so if the rain comes he’s the selection. Oneforthegutter has not quite fired in two starts this season but has maybe been brought along with a view to getting his mark down. If so it’s working; he’s gone from 90 to 84 – he’s 1lb wrong here – in two starts. He was rated 102 when he ran in the Royal Lodge and might just be one of those good juveniles that miss out a bit in their second season before returning at four. I can see 20+/1 coming online at some point so I’ll hold off for now. I backed Al Nafir when he bombed at Ascot, along with several from the yard. I’m not convinced the yard is bouncing yet and the horse doesn’t have any other entries. That said, he did run keenly up with an over-fast pace and was looked after when passed so that run is worth forgiving. If La Yakel is about 7lbs better than his mark, though, it would be a huge gulf to bridge. Those would be my three against the field but with no shortage of respect for the 3yo Struth.

York 2.35 - Silky Wilkie is probably the one to beat but the draw might compromise his chance, likewise Queen Me who drops in class from the Commonwealth Cup but takes on elders. I’ve taken 33/1 Rum Cocktail who absolutely ran away with her race last time by 6½ lengths. It was a very modest race compared to this one but 6½ lengths equates to more than 22lbs and the form of the second, third and fourth stacks up well. She also did it from a prominent position off a strong pace. The others were slowing rather than she quickening [as the visual comment in the form book says] but it still amounts to a huge performance for the class of race. This isn't another Equality of last week, though. She has a tougher task here but she shouldn't be 33/1, but she's a 4yo female and might just be one of those who suddenly take off on a steep upward curve. On my figures she'd only need to improve another 6lbs to have a winning chance. I’ve also backed her in a big-price trixie with Mountain Peak at Ascot (20/1) and Popmaster (18/1) at Newmarket for the same trainer. Silky Wilkie is also a bet.

YRK 3.10 JOHN SMITH'S CUP HANDICAP (HERITAGE HANDICAP)
[TABLE="width: 605"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
124+
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD] Sonny Liston
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]+? p +t?
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]15/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD] Long Tradition
[/TD]
[TD]91
[/TD]
[TD]126
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]15/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD] Astro King
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD] Cadillac
[/TD]
[TD]110
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] Sea The Casper
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD] Spirit Dancer
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]125?
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD] Marie's Diamond
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] Haunted Dream
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] Nobel
[/TD]
[TD]93
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] Majestic
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] Marhaba The Champ
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]? p +2?
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD] White Wolf
[/TD]
[TD]101
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD] Dawn Of Liberation
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]e
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD] Scampi
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]p t?
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD] Pride Of America
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD] Millebosc
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]+? AP
129? Fr
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]11/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD] Howth
[/TD]
[TD]89
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]AP
[126?]
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD] Faylaq
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]t?
[138]
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD] Certain Lad
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]+
125?
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 23
[/TD]
[TD] The City's Phantom
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]123e
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] Postmark
[/TD]
[TD]89
[/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD] Makinmedoit
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]118
[/TD]
[TD]28/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD] Cockalorum
[/TD]
[TD]86
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This, along with the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket today, is one of my favourite races of the entire year, mainly because they have been very kind to me down the years (so I must try getting the double up!) and I’m really looking forward to this. I’m really looking for something that will hit at least 125 on the scale. I have Sea The Casper (20/1) and Long Tradition (20/1) ante-post so can feel a bit smug given their current odds. I do hope one of them will win but really have to cover them with Sonny Liston following his fantastic run in the Hunt Cup. Millebosc is worth a mention too but he’s been shortening since Paul Kealy put him up midweek. If his French rating can translate directly across he could be very well handicapped too and Haggas is just the man to get him here in peak form. I plan to double Sonny Liston with his stablemate and Ascot conqueror Jimi Hendrix, out again at Ascot, as they both have strong winning chances on the figures. Faylaq is also worth a small bet. A win for any of the +p types or those with good historical form would be no surprise but I’ll stick with those mentioned above.

York 3.45 - I wanted to look at this race because of its value. Hamish looks a very sound favourite but I’m not prepared to back him at odds-on.

Chester 4.27 - Brad The Brief disappointed when my money was on last time but a modest reappearance performance can always be forgiven and he should be good enough to take care of this field. The softer ground might help but he isn’t proven over this trip although it should be no problem on breeding. I can’t really see anything else with which I’d want to oppose him but I’ll wait until the morning as I think he might drift.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I’ve taken 33/1 Rum Cocktail who absolutely ran away with her race last time by 6½ lengths. ...
I’ve also backed her in a big-price trixie with Mountain Peak at Ascot (20/1) and Popmaster (18/1) at Newmarket for the same trainer.
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Mountain Peak has been taken out and Popmaster won yesterday so I've cashed out this trixie. Plenty of money for Popmaster to double up in the Bunbury Cup but why carry a penalty you didn't have to. On his best figures he might be able to do so but why risk it? With MP coming out, I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to withdraw Popmaster too.
 
Like Winter Crown at Chester. Backed her last night at 4s and she's since flip-flopped with the Fanshawe horse that was fav. Other bet outside of Newmarket is Harry Brown at Ascot. He's 4lbs out of the handicap but he ran much much better than the finishing position suggests in Holyroodhouse handicap at the Royal meeting.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have Sea The Casper (20/1) and Long Tradition (20/1) ante-post so can feel a bit smug given their current odds.
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Brain fart on my part. I only have 12/1 Long Tradition. The 20s must have been pishful thinking on my part. It was probably 20/1 when I first checked it but reckoned at that point it didn't have a snotter's chance of making the cut.

Apologies.
 
They're not kicking up anything at Ascot, are they? Looks like the kid on the winner rode his elders to sleep with a waiting in front(ish) ride. Nothing got into it from the back. It will be interesting to see what the time is.

Disappointed not to get a run from CMG but is often held up so might not have panned out anyway.
 
Marb said:
I've had some flutters on three tomorrow.

Ascot 1.45 Badri - I feel he can run well and I am putting a line through the last run. He's better than that. A competative race though. If he's there with a chance in the final half furlong I suppose I'll settle for that.

4.45 Saratoga Gold - I picked up on him through collateral form lines. He then unseated at York where I think he would have won. He then hacked up at Kempton recently. A major chance...even with the Marb jinx at play.

York 3.10 -Haunted Dream - This is a another seriously competative race, where the margins between winning, losing and everything in between might only be a few lengths. Anyway...I like this one's profile...ran in a red hot handicap at Royal Ascot where he stopped quickly at the business end...but probably needed that run.

He ran a creditable second place last week when staying on out the back to get second. I would presume they wouldn't have done much with him at home, just keeping him ticking over since then. A good each way chance I hope. I see DO has Sea The Casper at fancy prices as per the long shot thread, so good luck with that horse, DO.

Best of luck to all tomorrow.
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A really good run from Badri. I might keep an eye on him for the Stewards Cup.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 4.05 - Rain probably won’t help Lucander (4th) but will La Yakel (2nd) which was pulled out of a recent big engagement because of fast ground. If he’s to have any chance of taking up his Ebor entry he’ll need to go up the ratings a fair bit from his current 92. 5lbs would get him into the top 30, not counting the Irish entries, and that probably wouldn’t be enough. 7lbs would get him into the top 25 but I’d expect at least three of the 20-odd Irish entries, including Vauban, no less, to run. It may be they’ll target something like the Old Rowley or some other £100+k race but he’d probably still need to go up 5lbs anyway so if the rain comes he’s the selection. Oneforthegutter (W 16/1) has not quite fired in two starts this season but has maybe been brought along with a view to getting his mark down. If so it’s working; he’s gone from 90 to 84 – he’s 1lb wrong here – in two starts. He was rated 102 when he ran in the Royal Lodge and might just be one of those good juveniles that miss out a bit in their second season before returning at four. I can see 20+/1 coming online at some point so I’ll hold off for now. I backed Al Nafir (unpl) when he bombed at Ascot, along with several from the yard. I’m not convinced the yard is bouncing yet and the horse doesn’t have any other entries. That said, he did run keenly up with an over-fast pace and was looked after when passed so that run is worth forgiving. If La Yakel is about 7lbs better than his mark, though, it would be a huge gulf to bridge. Those would be my three against the field but with no shortage of respect for the 3yo Struth (3rd).
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The 10/3 about La Yakel on Thursday was long gone by yesterday so I let it go and just had an ew on Oneforthegutter for the sake of an interest. Nice to get a winner on the board but still down on the day. Another good one for the ratings.
 
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Eternal Silence 6.20K 4/1 Bf
Her Moyglare form from last season puts her streets ahead of these and, though she didn't beat much lto, she did it easily and showed enough to convince she'll be ready for this.
Everything looks in place for her to lord it over these, and the current 4/1 looks extremely generous, imo
 
reet hard said:
Zozimus 3.25H
9/2 B365 strong bet
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Only a small worry about the ground, no rain through the day ought to see it OK. And GS may well be ok anyway. Aside from that, could carry these.

Think they will want to be getting Z in (valuable) stiff mile or 9f class 2s, my interpretation is there's logically no point in running today unless ready to win (but it wouldn't be the first time for a misinterpretation of this type from these quarters!). Has been steadyish at between 7-2 and 9-2 since early last night.
 
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