What are you backing Today? Part 2

Saint Segal enjoyed a handy 7lb pull for his 6l beating in the handicap won by BOOTHILL over C&D on his reappearance and he looked as though he might well reverse form when he came down at the last, when holding a 1l lead and seemingly going just as well.RP
 
barjon said:
Saint Segal enjoyed a handy 7lb pull for his 6l beating in the handicap won by BOOTHILL over C&D on his reappearance and he looked as though he might well reverse form when he came down at the last, when holding a 1l lead and seemingly going just as well.RP
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'might' and 'seemingly' being the operative words, anyone saying either result as a definitive is most certainly being disingenuous.
 
Exeter(GS showers) Market odds from 9.40am.
12.20 Salver (1/1)
12.55 Getaway Theatre (5/4) S Edmunds 17% past 14 days
2.05 Tarahumaara(11/4)
2.38 Aasian Spice (3/1) Ito Ditto (3/1), Fourofakind (6/1) Harry Derham 31%
3.10 Enjoy Your Life (9/4) V Williams 38%, Atlantic Brave 95/2), Run To Milan (6/1)
3.45 Danton (5/4) H Fry 36%< Portentosos (6/1) Chis Honour, Call Me Arthur (11/1) T Lacey (36%)
 
Enjoy your Life is in the tracker from the last day where his jockey went too soon and although I'm concerned about the step up in trip he's worth a bet. I'm not interested in singles at sub 3/1 so I have him in a double with Monbeg Genius next week.
 
barjon said:
Saint Segal enjoyed a handy 7lb pull for his 6l beating in the handicap won by BOOTHILL over C&D on his reappearance and he looked as though he might well reverse form when he came down at the last, when holding a 1l lead and seemingly going just as well.RP
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Not trying to suggest I was right and you were wrong, Bj. Just offering an alternative interpretation.

I think the RP is being generous to SS with that one-length lead at the last. I'd say about half a length. Someone who knows the dynamics of jumping can correct me but I think if they took off in sync the one that was slightly behind has made the longer jump and likely to have gained momentum.

It's all moot now. When I'm rating the race I'll be calling it a dead-heat and we'll see what happens going forward but I do reckon it was a hot race.
 
Agree, it doesn't matter now. Frero D'ames is interesting in that he's at his best from the front and I'm not claiming he wasn't off yesterday as there was plenty of pace in the race. If Skelton runs him left handed again and the profile of the race suggests he faces little opposition for the lead I'd take a chance positive tactics will be employed and there's a decent race in him, no doubt in my mind. Look at Haydock yesterday, that yard seem to perform at their best from the front.

The Tizzard horse ran well but it was a tough ask just a week after his Cheltenham victory. I think his solid form gives a boost to In Excelsis Deo going forward.

EDIT - The left handed bit re Frero doesn't matter. I was getting him mixed up with Haddex Des Obeaux. They met last year at Kempton and HdO jumped left handed.
 
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I was tempted to ignore all form for the race and just back Frere D'Armes because it ran instead of Real Stone - and see what he did at Haydock! - so I'd assume it was trying. Perhaps the apprentice didn't get the best out of it but it might just be another pointer to how hot the form actually might be.

(Same with that 3m hcap hurdle at Haydock. That is fizzing hot form.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not trying to suggest I was right and you were wrong, Bj. Just offering an alternative interpretation.

I think the RP is being generous to SS with that one-length lead at the last. I'd say about half a length. Someone who knows the dynamics of jumping can correct me but I think if they took off in sync the one that was slightly behind has made the longer jump and likely to have gained momentum.

It's all moot now. When I'm rating the race I'll be calling it a dead-heat and we'll see what happens going forward but I do reckon it was a hot race.
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No, I know you weren’t, desert. i just find the different views interesting and why they are seen like that. Even now I see it as SS coming to win his race having worked his way through from the back, but I fully accept there may be a bias in that view because that’s what I bet on happening. I think it goes to show that it is quite difficult to view these things dispassionately :D. Agree it was a hot race.
 
I've just watched the whole race again.

I'll concede the lead was closer to a length at the last than I'd thought but I also think SS was working harder from three out until that point than Boothall so the run-in would have been interesting.

I'd also like to know how much more ground Boothill covered through the race than SS, which stuck to the rail all the way. That said, I think that's how they race so if/when they meet again the chances are SS will be on the rail and Bh wil be wide.

The sectionals are up at the ATR results section. They show the field slowing down, which I think is to be expected, but there appears to have been a big increase in the pace some way from the finish and Boothill was finishing the least slow.

Boothill also was striding longer with a slower frequency than the others so I wonder if they'll step him up in trip at some point.
 
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Euronymous said:
Enjoy your Life is in the tracker from the last day where his jockey went too soon and although I'm concerned about the step up in trip he's worth a bet. I'm not interested in singles at sub 3/1 so I have him in a double with Monbeg Genius next week.
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Nice beginning, Euro :)
 
I backed saint segal yesterday and due to the discussion about it I took another look and I dont know what the outcome would of been.
Had a good run for my money though.
A couple of years ago I put Boothill as my dark horse in a comp.
 
Kempton (G some GS showers) Market odds from 09.10am
12.50 Dancing In Brazil (4/1)
2.25 Kateira (8/11), Coquelot (10/3) A Honeyball 22% past 14 days
3.05 Our Jet (10/3) D Skelton
3.35 Tapley (5/1) Miss Suzy Smith 25%
 
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Kelso (GS snow showers) Market odds from 9.05am
1.35 Secret Secret (5/2), Eden Mill (9/2)
2.10 Haveyougotmymoney (3/1) Paul Robson 50% past 14 days, Had To be Hugo (5/1)
2.45 Call Me Harry (9/4)
3.20 Camp Belan (7/2), Bretney (9/2), Conguredalofeurope (9/2)
 
Musselburgh (GS some S) Market odds from 9.10am
11.55 Ottizzini (10/11), Quaresome (16/5), The Kalooki Kid (5/1) N Richards 44% past 14 days.
1.00 Neigh Botha 910/3) Greenall/Gueriero 27%
2.10 Ip Up (10/11)J O'Keefe 17%, Scots Poet (5/1) Ewan Williams 21%
2.45 Half Shot (7/2)
3.20 Ricketty Gate (4/1) N Richards 44%, Shantou Moon (6/1)
 
Newbury (GS some G chs cse) Market odds fro0m 9am.
12.40 Djelo (99/4) V Williams 24% past 14 days
1.15 Wodhooh (8/13) G Elliott 20%, Saisissante (9/1
1.50 Marble Sands (7/2), Nickle back (9/2) S Humphrey 30%
3.00 Dashel Drasher (10/3) J Scott 18%
3.35 Hoe Joly Smoke (7/2) Ed Keeper (4/1) S Thomas 25%
 
I'll be mildly surprised if Musselburgh races today......currently -3 with a frost about 5 miles from the track. Sun is out though, so they may get away with it.

Edit: Abandoned.
 
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Newbury 1.50 Nickle Back 9/2 Bet365
This fella could hardly have won more easily than his two chase attempts so far and the two remote runners up have both put in decent performances since, with the Nichols horse that was beaten out of sight at Warwick now favourite for the following race


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What a fabulous finish between Paisley and Dashel....two absolute superstars! :<3:

Dashels owners are local Point to Point Secretary Bridget Tully and Point to Point judge, Richard Lock. You couldn’t get two nicer more down to earth owners and what a horse to own!
 
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Nicky Henderson saved the bookies millions just now. Marie's Rock drifted like a barge and looked well short of a gallop.

Never affected me but there must be thousands of punters out there with accies going sick as parrots
 
jinnyj said:
What a fabulous finish between Paisley and Dashel....two absolute superstars! :<3:

Dashels owners are local Point to Point Secretary Bridget Tully and Point to Point judge, Richard Lock. You couldn’t get two nicer more down to earth owners and what a horse to own!
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Absolutely fabulous ,Paisley was getting there. To say Tom Bellamy was disappointed is understatement of the month! The 'team' were delighted, he was gutted.
 
Newbury (GS some g) Market odds from 11.10.
11.55 Manimole (6/5) N Twiston-Davies 29% (all win % shown past 14 days), Mighty Moth (3/1)
12.30 Rich House (7/4) Jonjo O'Neill 23%, Way Out (4/1)
1.05 Jingko Blue (13/8) N Henderson 28%, Emailandy (11/2) P Nicholls 31%.
1.40 Irish Hill (5/1) P Nicholls 31%, Uncle Bert (11/2 ) N Twiston-Davies 29%
2.15 Brentford Hope (3/1), Bad (5/1) B Pauling 15%
2.50 Monbeg Genius (13/2) Jonjo O'Neill 23%, Mahler Mission (17/2)
3.25 Master Chewy (4/6 ) N Twiston-Davies 29%, Elixir De Nutz (5/1), Bollingerandkrug ((15/2) LRussell 17%
 
Good start BN I took 15/8 manimole early doors couldn't believe how short it ended up. Nickys almost had her and she was 88 on the machine.

I was just watching Barry gerhaty who said Corebetts Cross was abit special and was his nap today. So I though I would have a few quid on.......damn things aread run and won duh! ;0(
Took 85/40 with Bet Victor about Inch House (nap) they **** a brick and cut him to 5/4 :lol: fingers and toes crossed
 
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