What are you backing Today? Part 2

The Brittain stable should be at just around its peak winter form. Already had a 100-1 2nd in a novice this afternoon finishing in front of a Bethell runner and a Balding Cracksman.

Eldeyaar might be just hitting his peak as a 5YO, 22-1 (and a bit bigger on the Exchange) in the 7.30 Southwell seems worth a go.
 
Huge couple of days coming up. I fancy loads on both sides of the Irish Sea.

I've followed Marb in on General Officer in the 1.40 At Musselbrough. Monmiral is not a horse I like and I was looking for a way to oppose him. Not gone full bore here as he's not a tracker but I do have one later on in the card 2.50, Parisencore, in the handicap hurdle. I don't do those type of races and naturally I was hoping he'd stay over fences but he's handy for an ew double.

The two mile handicap chase at Sandown I tackled ante-post as I felt the ground would be against some of those in behind Saint Segal and In Excelsis Deo in the market and sure enough the race has cut up. I took 4s on the former and have topped up at 9/4. IED I put in an ew double with another tracker alert, Path D'aroux, in the 4.10 at Leop. That horse went into my notebook when he finished really well behind Hunter's Yarn last month in a Beginners at Fairyhouse. I don't tend to study Irish handicap chases so his fall before that at Xmas passed me by. Speaking of which Solness is a killer horse for me. I put him on alert when he followed home Saldier in a Beginners at Thurles this time last year after which The Baby Joseph kept running him in modest races where he was odds-on then over the summer/autumn he overfaced him against decent types so I took him off my list and sure enough he pops in at 7/1 in his first go in a handicap early in Dec. Lesson learned. I'll be mad if he wins but 147 is a tough looking mark.

Grozni went into the tracker when he was a good second behind a Pumpkin shorty at Donny in mid Dec. That was over three miles and he ran ok after that stepped down to 2 1/2 at Muss where luckily he was fairly short so I didn't have much on and the return to three miles at Sandown 3.45 tomorrow will suit. This race doesn't look as competitive as you'd think on first glance. It's choc full of boats who ideally need further (Dom of Mary, Certainly Red and Bangers/Cash fall into that category). A couple of layers were lazy pricing this up on decs and left Grozni on his ante-post price (16s). That's been smashed in and I've decided to cover on the fav who looks the only danger to me. Blackjack Magic ran well enough in a much better race than this last time at Ascot and I've put him in an ew double with Thunder Rock who runs Sunday at Musselbrough. That track will suit much much better than Cheltenham did previously and I expect him to bounce back.

Lastly I very rarely bet in bumpers but I thought Redeption Day was worth a go in the last tomorrow. He was second to a Giggi on his first run back for a while but he travelled like the best horse in the race on that occasion and I'm hoping that effort put him right. Not a full bet given my unfamiliarity with the old bumping scene so I've put him in a double (as well as a small single) with an old friend from the flat tracker list last year, Roaring Legend,who runs in the Triumph trial that opens the Muss' card on Sunday. I thought RL ran really well on his first go over hurdles at Kempton a fortnight or so ago. The Pumpkin that beat him that day looks a very nice type and the fat man is not dicking about with him, putting him away maybe for chasing? next year.
 
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I really don't fancy Hermes Allen at all in the Scilly Isles today, and think this is a great opportunity to oppose an odds-on shot. I think he's both a stayer and a mudlark, and figure his price is more a reflection of him being the only horse to finish in the same parish as Il Est Francais over Christmas, than any superiority her might have over this opposition.

He has to be vulnerable over 2m4f on Good ground, and my preference is to stick with the two horses who have decent form on the ground and at the trip; namely Le Patron and Djelo. I can't really split the pair, so I'll back Djelo (unlucky faller LTO) at the bigger price of the two - 6/1- Betfair - and cover with a reverse forecast.
 
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Trrrific racing today - what pleasure it is to see so many from the top drawer out today in the DRF. My main interest there is Jetara who has shortened overnight so I’ve added some. Hope the ground is not too soft for her. On the home front I’m sticking with Monmiral 1:40 Musselburgh who faces a much easier task than last time and maybe in more hope than expectation I’m looking to get some money back on Saint Segal 2:00 Sandown. I’m a bit intrigued that Nicholls has sent just one runner to Wetherby which is Tarras Wood 2:07. Maybe it suits the owning syndicate or maybe……
 
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I've followed Euro with Grozni and Parisencore on my yankee.

I also see the logic in Grasshopper's post. Make a lot of sense to me. Gary Moore quoted as saying Le Patron may have other targets apart from the festival. Be interested if today changes that view.

I know a correspondent at the Sporting Life has put up Sequestered in the 3.00 at Leopardstown. Good market support for him, so I've taken the chance. He's in the yankee.

Good luck all today. Sure does look a good days racing.
 
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Lots of racing that's likely to be highly informative but not an awful lot of serious betting material.

Obviously I'm funning around with the longshots and I'd say there's really only one today I feel very strongly about (so it's probably a classic Skelton non-jigger).

Sandown 3.10 - My luck turned in this race in the last two years, finding Green Book both times so I’m hopeful the run can continue. As ever, I’m looking at second-season unexposed novices. Some of these novices have already improved a fair bit into this season so I’m less confident about how much more they can find. West Balboa doesn’t come into this category but she was backed into favouritism to win the G1 Long Walk Hurdle last time. She was never in that race – the jockey reported she ran free – but the first three got RPRs of 159, 159 and 154 for it and all three are now on ORs of 157. West Balboa was getting the 7lb allowance so could be a 150 horse or better if she was expected to beat them so 143 here could be very lenient. She holds two G1 entries at the festival (Mares’ and Stayers’) so is clearly highly regarded even if she is an outsider. I’ll probably try a nibble at both those G1s (NRNB) just in case she goes and wins this but I’ll also be backing her here.
 
Have taken the plunge on Dancing City in the Nathaniel Lacy. His three defeats read as follows:

Beaten 1/2L by useful Three Card Brag (recvd 7lbs) in a 2m bumper on Heavy.
Beaten 6L by classy Ballyburn off levels in a 2m Bumper on G/Y. The third was beaten 7 3/4L and has won both starts since.
Beaten off a break of 205 days in his second-to-last run, in a 2m4f novice hurdle on Heavy.

In his last run, he won going away over 2m4f on S/H at Navan - though the competition was reasonably modest.

Clearly, he will need to improve to get in amongst the finish, but he looks crying out for this step-up to 2m6f, and I can definitely see him out-running his current odds of 16/1......though I wish I'd taken the 20/1 available yesterday.
 
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Well, it was a big mistake at the 3rd last and she did well to keep in the saddle but, bearing in mind how quickly the horse recovered (to jump upsides at the next fence), I thought Bryony was extremely easy on Monmiral there.
 
That was one of the worst races I've seen all year. If I'd not been on General Officer (and by the way how bad is Brian Hughes, so reactive.) Marble Sands had no chance on form. Worries of a bad day incoming.
 
Euronymous said:
That was one of the worst races I've seen all year. If I'd not been on General Officer (and by the way how bad is Brian Hughes, so reactive.) Marble Sands had no chance on form. Worries of a bad day incoming.
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Marble Sands had every chance on form, and clearly just doesnt stay futher than 2m4f. All his best form is over 16-20f.
 
Euronymous said:
The two mile handicap chase at Sandown I tackled ante-post as I felt the ground would be against some of those in behind Saint Segal and In Excelsis Deo in the market and sure enough the race has cut up. I took 4s on the former and have topped up at 9/4. IED I put in an ew double with another tracker alert, Path D'aroux, in the 4.10 at Leop.
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It doesn't seem to matter how much I crush the market I can't seem to get a result. Grozni is fascinating now - backed at 16/1 yesterday and into what 9/2, 5/1. I mean, I can't really see it winning now. Positive vibes, my short term luck is so bad there will be a turnaround at some point. I have no problem with waiting for the flat as stakes will be higher.
 
Grasshopper said:
Have taken the plunge on Dancing City in the Nathaniel Lacy. His three defeats read as follows:

Beaten 1/2L by useful Three Card Brag (recvd 7lbs) in a 2m bumper on Heavy.
Beaten 6L by classy Ballyburn off levels in a 2m Bumper on G/Y. The third was beaten 7 3/4L and has won both starts since.
Beaten off a break of 205 days in his second-to-last run, in a 2m4f novice hurdle on Heavy.

In his last run, he won going away over 2m4f on S/H at Navan - though the competition was reasonably modest.

Clearly, he will need to improve to get in amongst the finish, but he looks crying out for this step-up to 2m6f, and I can definitely see him out-running his current odds of 16/1......though I wish I'd taken the 20/1 available yesterday.
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Nice one, you rotter ;).
 
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