What are you backing Today? Part 2

Desert Orchid said:
In tonight's Champions' League qualifier at Parkhead, I find myself unable to resist a bit of 3/1 Midtjylland.

There's no way Celtic should be odds-on tonight (imo). I do fancy them to wrest back the Scottish title over the course of a season but this game is probably too much too soon for a struggling home side who looked lightweight against a physical Preston side at the weekend. Midtjylland will be every bit as physical and I'm not convinced Celtic are in a position to cope just yet.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong and anything better than a defeat will be a bit of a result.
Click to expand...

1-1

Celtic were actually good enough on the night to have won but a moment of monumental madness got Bitton sent off and handed the visitors the initiative. Once it went to 10-v-10 Celtic got the upper hand and were value for three or four goals but poor finishing did for them. Then the keeper decided he didn't a hard shot to hurt his hands and ha pulled them out of a routine save, and not for the first time.

We'll struggle with him in goal.

Still, plenty of positives to take from the game and I'd have settled for a draw at 7.30 this evening.
 
Miss jabeam 650n 3/1 has looked as if its bearing a win.
Gordon Bennet 450n 4/1 missed the break last time but ran on well.
 
Worcester 1.45
Fingerontheswitch has dropped to a tempting mark and rates good each way value at 12/1 in this lower grade


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
International Hcap, Ascot, Saturday - I've gone in a shade heavy on Motakhayyel at 11/2. He picks up just a 3lb penalty for the Bunbury Cup but probably had at least that in reserve and, despite that, will be 6lbs well in. I think his new mark is pretty lenient and on my figures he is a G1 horse at the trip. If my figures are anywhere near correct, half those odds might be generous.

However, Matthew Flinders will be officially 10lbs well in following his excellent second to Safe Voyage at Chester. Again, I think if the form can be taken at face value the rise might turn out to be lenient. I've saved on him at 15/2 and can see him being punted into 5/2 but I fancy Motakhayyel to give him the weight.

It's almost a waste of time studying the rest of the race...
 
If Motakhayyel is a Group 1 horse over 7f what happened against Glorious Journey in the Criterion? He was beaten fair and square that day by a Group 2 horse at best. This is way more competitive than the Bunbury and I can't have him.

Matthew Flinders on the other hand has an excellent chance and I have him in an ew double with Latest Generation (2.25)

I've also backed Star of Orion who went into the tracker after his last win.
 
Euronymous said:
If Motakhayyel is a Group 1 horse over 7f what happened against Glorious Journey in the Criterion? He was beaten fair and square that day by a Group 2 horse at best. This is way more competitive than the Bunbury and I can't have him.
Click to expand...

I agree you need to look at that race but sometimes when the form pans out I look back and reach different conclusions. Shadwell love the big handicaps every bit as much as any other outfit. When Mota turned up in the Bunbury Cup looking for a repeat off just 109 with Dettori up he became irresistible. I took the view his season was geared around kicking off in the Bunbury Cup. I didn't expect him to win as easily as he did but I've been back and forward through the form and it stacks up incredibly well. Either that or everything bar the winner ran below form. Take the winner out and people would be raving about what a good race it was.

But that's what the game is all about: opinions.

I'm more given to trust handicap form in handicaps than non-handicap form, especially if the time doesn't back up the bare form. To be fair, I haven't checked the time of the Chester race but it strikes me as stacking up very strongly too (like you, I thought Safe Voyage was a good thing on the day) hence my keenness to include MF among my bets even though Chester is more likely than Newmarket to throw up a false result.
 
The Chester form stacks up. Oh This is Us back in third has been very consistent this year and has multiple Chester wins himself.
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
The Chester form stacks up. Oh This is Us back in third has been very consistent this year and has multiple Chester wins himself.
Click to expand...

And the form further back makes a lot of sense. If Mota hadn't been in the field I'd have been all over MF like a rash but my figure for him is just so high.
 
Euronymous said:
If Motakhayyel is a Group 1 horse over 7f what happened against Glorious Journey in the Criterion? He was beaten fair and square that day by a Group 2 horse at best. This is way more competitive than the Bunbury and I can't have him.
Click to expand...
Neither, it seems, can Jim Crowley, who travels to York, despite Shadwell's 3 enrants in this.
 
Desert Orchid said:
International Hcap, Ascot, Saturday - I've gone in a shade heavy on Motakhayyel at 11/2. He picks up just a 3lb penalty for the Bunbury Cup but probably had at least that in reserve and, despite that, will be 6lbs well in. I think his new mark is pretty lenient and on my figures he is a G1 horse at the trip. If my figures are anywhere near correct, half those odds might be generous.

However, Matthew Flinders will be officially 10lbs well in following his excellent second to Safe Voyage at Chester. Again, I think if the form can be taken at face value the rise might turn out to be lenient. I've saved on him at 15/2 and can see him being punted into 5/2 but I fancy Motakhayyel to give him the weight.

It's almost a waste of time studying the rest of the race...
Click to expand...

I have to agree about Motakhayyel but I cant force myself to back a 5/1 so I've gone for a bit of value.
I've done Raising Sand and Ropey guest 25s and also like cliffs of capri.
 
Outsider said:
I have to agree about Motakhayyel but I cant force myself to back a 5/1 so I've gone for a bit of value.
I've done Raising Sand and Ropey guest 25s and also like cliffs of capri.
Click to expand...

Funny old world isn’t it - I find it difficult to force myself to back anything over 10/1 :D
 
Last edited:
barjon said:
Funny old world isn’t it - I find it difficult to force myself to back anything over 10/1 :D
Click to expand...

Yes. I reckon it's all down to subjective perspective. Despite the field size, I reckon 11/2 Mota (and 15/2 MF) is really good value whereas normally, like Outsider, I'd be shying away from 5/1 shots in big-field handicaps.

As mentioned, Latest Generation at 4/1 also strikes me as a betting material.
 
reet hard said:
Neither, it seems, can Jim Crowley, who travels to York, despite Shadwell's 3 enrants in this.
Click to expand...
JC travels to ride in the gp2 - clearly, with an eye on the Juddmonte.
ATR has the pace forecast as weak for the International and promising to favour those drawn low, soI'll take Daniyah of the Shadwell trio, finished 2nd over C/D latest, entitled to improve on only its 4th race of the year, and has a very capable pace judge in the plate.
 
All over South Africa to beat the Lions today. Took 11/10 and Evens again this morning. Dont think it will be too close.
 
Desert Orchid said:
International Hcap, Ascot, Saturday - I've gone in a shade heavy on Motakhayyel at 11/2. He picks up just a 3lb penalty for the Bunbury Cup but probably had at least that in reserve and, despite that, will be 6lbs well in. I think his new mark is pretty lenient and on my figures he is a G1 horse at the trip. If my figures are anywhere near correct, half those odds might be generous.

However, Matthew Flinders will be officially 10lbs well in following his excellent second to Safe Voyage at Chester. Again, I think if the form can be taken at face value the rise might turn out to be lenient. I've saved on him at 15/2 and can see him being punted into 5/2 but I fancy Motakhayyel to give him the weight.

It's almost a waste of time studying the rest of the race...
Click to expand...

OOuuuucccchhhhhhh...

That hurt.

I'm suspicious when something else under the same ownership is strongly backed to beat another. Maybe Mota needs more time between races.

But very well done all Danyah backers. Nice win.
 
reet hard said:
JC travels to ride in the gp2 - clearly, with an eye on the Juddmonte.
ATR has the pace forecast as weak for the International and promising to favour those drawn low, soI'll take Daniyah of the Shadwell trio, finished 2nd over C/D latest, entitled to improve on only its 4th race of the year, and has a very capable pace judge in the plate.
Click to expand...

Well done Reet.
 
Well done. Luckily Powers restrict me meaning they only let me have £3 on Star of Orion last Monday when they were going 33/1. Could have been a very expensive short head that.
 
Highly Sprung 3.00P has 6 wins and 5 places from 16 runs at this track, loves fast ground and well drawn.
7/1 B365
 
Back
Top