What are you backing Today? Part 2

I'm afraid this says more about me than it does about DF but whenever I hear "passing the Sticky Toffee Pudding Shop" I want to say - the shop's not there, it's down the lane.
 
2017diary said:
I'm afraid this says more about me than it does about DF but whenever I hear "passing the Sticky Toffee Pudding Shop" I want to say - the shop's not there, it's down the lane.
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Absolutely spot on mate. :)
And i used to shout at the telly when i used to have the sound on when he was there but they were words i would not want to repeat on here.
The "old Grammar" is just the top bend to most of us.
"Sevenacres" is just the bottom bend.
"Passing the Sticky Toffee Pudding shop" and/or the Priory is just going over the crossing to most of us.

He's getting to me ! ;):LOL:
 
2017diary said:
I'm afraid this says more about me than it does about DF but whenever I hear "passing the Sticky Toffee Pudding Shop" I want to say - the shop's not there, it's down the lane.
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There are a few cracking handicaps there tomorrow and some old favourites and a few who have dropped a fair way down in the weights who will no doubt be winning (or going very close) soon.
If i can sneak a big price on one or two of them and trade them i will. Otherwise, it looks a tricky card.

For anyone interested, Hills have already gone up on the 2.55 race there.
 
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I am a member of JPW racing.
He is a bit hit or miss at present but it's up to you if you follow or you just watch.
3:10 Curragh
WHITE BIRCH 9/4 generally - 1 POINT WIN
Auguste Rodin is the one they all have to beat and if he is on song, it will be difficult. However he is not a given and was very poor at Meydan last time out, his first start as a 4 year old. If he puts in another stinker then WHITE BIRCH is the one who will surely pick up the pieces and he comes into the race in great form. He has won his last two races at this course in April and the start of May and looked better than ever last time out, when winning a group 2. This 1m 2f trip is where he is at his best where I feel Auguste Rodin probably wanted 1m 4f to be at his best.
WHITE BIRCH will run his race and I would rather go with the horse he has the form in the bag and can be trusted, although a peak Auguste Rodin will obviously be difficult to beat. WIN.

3:45 Curragh
OPERA SINGER 3/1 generally - 1 POINT WIN
We were on Fallen Angel in the English 2000 guineas and she was very disappointing. I can see her improving for a run under her belt but it is difficult to say she has improved from a 2 year old to a 3 year old on the evidence we saw last time out. For that reason I am going to side with the Aiden O'Brien trained OPERA SINGER. This is the horse that Ryan Moore has chosen to ride from 4 O'Brien horses and although she is having her first start of the season, he has chosen OPERA SINGER over a couple of others who come into the race match fit and runs under their belt. OPERA SINGER is clearly working well in training for him to be on board. OPERA SINGER won her two last starts last season, including a group 1 win at Longchamp in October. SHe didn't just win either, she won by 5 lengths and the time before she won a group 3 by 6 lengths. I think she is the one to beat with the only negative being, this is her first start of the season. WIN.

Good Luck
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Quixall Crossett said:
A small profit made but then again any profit is better than no profit at all.
But i'm in one of my (many) cantankerous moods this morning and i have to repeat a rant i had on the previous forum i was on
I havent had the sound on either racing channel for about six years now mainly because i was so sick of listening to nonsense, virtue signalling and those "presenters" who think that the show is all about them and the racing is just a side show.
But i also have the sound off when certain commentators are on and sadly, David Fitzgerald seems to have somehow made the Cartmel gig his own. He can be nauseating at the best of times but at Cartmel he just "excels" himself. We get told every time they pas the Sticky Toffee Pudding shop, every time they pass the Old Priory. the Old Grammar, the Woodside straight, rounding Sevenacres. Every bleedin time !!!
I switched the commentary on at the start of the first race just to check it was him and as soon as i heard his voice, the sound went off again. But a mate got in touch later and confirmed that he mentioned them all on every lap in every race. Its as if he had never been to the track until a few years ago to do the gig and he now wants to pass his "vast knowledge" of the track onto everyone else.

Nauseating !!
Rant over.

Have a good day all. :)
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Jaimie on sky sports is so irritating. Even when he is wrong he has to be right about everything.
 
To get back on track with the thread title, i have jotted down eight horses that i will be keeping a very close eye on in the betting later today and in their respective races tomorrow. Maybe if some are greatly overpriced i might indulge.
I havent got the time or patience to list all eight but i will go thru the three at the top of the list. These could also go on the longshot thread but they are here now.

2.55 Cartmel - The bottom horse Alqamar is 3lbs outside of the handicap but Charlotte takes 3lb off and lets face it, she is a very good jockey who is stealing a 3lb claim.
Alqamar was decent class on the flat for Charlie Appleby and was rated 93 at best. The horse won four in a row for Jimmy Moffat in 2021 but probably would have made it five but for U/R at Wetherby when cantering. He has run some good races in defeat since but has failed to win and has dropped from a high of 132 two years ago to its current 107. It ran a cracker on its reappearence run last season (off 118) behind Pyramid Place who won at Aintree a couple of weeks ago and first time up might be the time to catch him.

4.05 Cartmel - Ciel De Neige - This ex Willie Mullins horse was rated 152 at best and was still rated 145 when he made his first start for Ben Haslam in December. As is usual, the Haslam way of working is to first of all get that mark down and take it from there. The horse is now down to 125 and it is only a matter of time. His last two runs may not look good on paper but i would recommend anyone to watch them. They have shown promise and he is definitely no back number. We know he is going to win more races. As usual, the name of the game is to work out when !

5.45 Cartmel - Native Fighter - At Cartmel last season, Michael Chapman trained his first winner for about 500 years. That horse was Smart Connection and it foiled what would have been a lovely touch on Native Fighter which we backed at 16/1 the night before and it went off at 13/2. It was only in the last couple of strides that we got collared and i will admit it was painful. But hey ho, we got the place money so nothing lost. This is another horse down to its lowest ever mark and it is made even better by the 10lb claim of Leah Noreci. She did us a massive turn here last year when winning on Cuzco Du Mathan and she looked very tidy and i would have no hesitation of ever backing something if she was on it.

Those are just three of a list i have compiled to watch closely tomorrow. If the fraudsters put them in too big there will be opportunities to trade them. At this moment in time i have no intention of backing any of them but the day is still young and there are 24hrs to go yet.

Views anyone ?
 
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From JPW


Monday 27th May

Some profit on the board yesterday with White Birch and maybe I should have taken a chance on Fallen Angel as we had to settle for 3rd with Opera Singer. It is just one of those as I took on Auguste Rodin because he flopped the first time up and it paid off. I took on Fallen Angel because of the same reasons but you win some you lose some. Profitable day, we move on with tomorrow and just one selection from Redcar.


4:35 Redcar
MAGHLAAK 7/2 generally - 1 POINT WIN
MAGHLAAK returned from 344 days off the track to win at Goodwood at the start of the month and this was following being gelded. He has gone up the handicap 3lb to a mark of 89 but I still think he has much more improvement to come. I would be surprised if he didn't turn out to be better than this mark as he is very lightly raced for a 5 year old. He is also related to some very good horses and I can see him making it two on the bounce. The ground will be no worry I think he should be clear favourite in this weak looking Class 2. WIN.

Good Luc
 
Ian_Davies said:
Hollington 33/1 (disappearing slowly) 5.45 Cartmel - it's a Good-ground Point "thang."
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Good luck with that one mate.

I think this is the sort of thing you like. A bit of reminiscing on plots of old.
I was looking at the decs for Cartmel on Wednesday and my old mate Dreal Deal has been declared. Who can forget the day they went for it at Navan. And with it being declared at Cartmel, i got thinking to the Gay Future plot as well.
Things like those always bring a smile to my face.
 
It was 40/1 earlier but, err, I had all of it, err, sorry about that.

I like my obscure stabs in the dark - most people don't have the patience for betting these types, but I figure if I bet 39 horses at 40/1 win only (I don't bet each way) and one of them wins, I'm keeping my head above water and the wolf from the door.

Two winners out of 39 at 40s and the fridge is full of Serrano ham, Manchego cheese and tiramisu.
 
Ian_Davies said:
It was 40/1 earlier but, err, I had all of it, err, sorry about that.

I like my obscure stabs in the dark - most people don't have the patience for betting these types, but I figure if I bet 39 horses at 40/1 win only (I don't bet each way) and one of them wins, I'm keeping my head above water and the wolf from the door.

Two winners out of 39 at 40s and the fridge is full of Serrano ham, Manchego cheese and tiramisu.
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Couldnt agree more mate. It is each to their own as we always say but if anybody catches me going anywhere near a favourite they have my permission to cut my bollocks off.
As i have said before on here and as everyone knew on the previous forum, i very,very rarely touch anything under 8/1 and the bigger the odds, the better for me.
I'm not one for stabs in the dark but i know what you mean. And nearly every bet of mine is each way. There has to be good reasoning behind the selection whether it be for punting or for playing around with the price and locking in some profit like those three today.

For anyone who has ever thought about getting involved with the bigger price ones but didnt think it would pay or couldnt handle the possible big (ish) gaps between winners, i will tell you a simple fact.
We all know punters, good and bad. But those of us who have spent our whole working lives in the industry will obviously know more punters than the average man in the street. From the betting shop days when we would come across all types of punters to working in the trading room and seeing EVERY bet that comes thru and dealing with the "warm" punters. And some of those were better than others. But for me, one stood out. I always used to say on the old forum that there have only been two punters that i have ever come across who i would follow if i didnt do things my own way. And one of them is THE best i have ever come across. I have never come across anyone who could touch him. Unfortunately, i dont have any contact with him these days but i have no doubt he is still coining it in although with the small fields and more to the point, the struggle we have to get on, it wont be anywhere near as much as he used to win.
But the point i am trying to make here is, he only bets each way. And they had to be double figure prices for him to get involved. 16/1 and upwards were the norm and his strike rate was uncanny.
i would think that 99.99% of people on here will not have heard of him. You will never find him on a podcast or writing a column in a paper or starting a tipping line. He just keeps a low profile, keeps himself to himself, and wins !!!! Unlike most of the ones who do the above.

Food for thought maybe for anyone who might want to get a bit more adventurous with their betting :)

Have a good day all.
 
I love hcaps.and something has to be a big price and often they shouldn't be.
I know it wasn't a hcap but a good eg was Mutbaahy on Saturday.sp 9/1 but betfair went 20s the night before which was very overpriced.
 
I think we might walk past each other without seeing each other, QC, since I rarely bet anything above 8/1 :D. I’ve had a couple of long priced ones lately, but they are pretty rare beasts.
 
barjon said:
I think we might walk past each other without seeing each other, QC, since I rarely bet anything above 8/1 :D. I’ve had a couple of long priced ones lately, but they are pretty rare beasts.
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I love that line although the way my eyesight is going, i dont see that much these days. My missus reckons i only see what i want to see. :)

Big priced horses in low grade handicaps. Manna from heaven.
 
Alqamar ninth but was not far off the leaders until after the second from home. The name of the game was to see if it was worth persevering with and it certainly is from my point of view. The extended trip was a concern and the drop back to 2m 6f or thereabouts will do it the world of good.

Entered in the 7.20 at Cartmel on Wednesday over 2m 6f with Leah Noreci on top taking 10lb off.
 
Quixall Crossett said:
Alqamar ninth but was not far off the leaders until after the second from home. The name of the game was to see if it was worth persevering with and it certainly is from my point of view. The extended trip was a concern and the drop back to 2m 6f or thereabouts will do it the world of good.

Entered in the 7.20 at Cartmel on Wednesday over 2m 6f with Leah Noreci on top taking 10lb off.
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Would definitely be of interest dropped in trip👍
The 10lbs claimer could make all the difference.
Defo one to keep an eye on.
 
Friday

Epsom - 5.40 Spanish Star is a grand old 9 year old, who has earned his keep over the years, winning 8 races from 65 starts. A respectable strike rate that is. He was seventh in the Stewards Cup last season, beaten four lengths or thereabouts, off a five pound higher mark. He's been too keen the last two races, but still not beaten far, so hopefully that freshness has been knocked out of him. Top jockey Tom Marquand booked to ride. He's the bet for me in this race on Friday. I'm hopeful I can get a potentially rewarding price.
 
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