Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I gotta a horse.....Panic Attack....
What are you backing Today? Part 2
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
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Could Margaret's Legacy 12/1 be a little bit over-priced in the Adonis today?
When he was arriving at the weight for Ajas in the Grand National, the handicapper said he just used the official French rating for it.
There are two ways (at least) of interpreting this. He trusts the official French handicappers (so why not the Irish, you have to ask) or he thinks the French over-rate their horses and by going with their rating he isn't going to stand accused of making an embarrassing gaffe by letting one in lightly over here.
Today's race isn't a handicap so it's no big deal either way but Margaret's Legacy's French OR puts her within a pound of 11/10 favourite Tritonic on adjusted ratings. It also puts him within 9lbs of Solo's mark at the same time last season.
And the innate xenophobic arrogance of native punters [in any country in the world] will almost always lead to a horse being over-priced anyway.
When he was arriving at the weight for Ajas in the Grand National, the handicapper said he just used the official French rating for it.
There are two ways (at least) of interpreting this. He trusts the official French handicappers (so why not the Irish, you have to ask) or he thinks the French over-rate their horses and by going with their rating he isn't going to stand accused of making an embarrassing gaffe by letting one in lightly over here.
Today's race isn't a handicap so it's no big deal either way but Margaret's Legacy's French OR puts her within a pound of 11/10 favourite Tritonic on adjusted ratings. It also puts him within 9lbs of Solo's mark at the same time last season.
And the innate xenophobic arrogance of native punters [in any country in the world] will almost always lead to a horse being over-priced anyway.
I'm strongly considering it, DO. My mums name is Margaret. I like a horse with Margaret in its title.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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As good a reason as any, Marb, I say.
I was thinking of putting a pound on it for my wife and daughter as we have very fond memories of my wife's Auntie Margaret who left a rich legacy of malapropisms, mispronunciations an awful table manners that we still laugh at today.
I was thinking of putting a pound on it for my wife and daughter as we have very fond memories of my wife's Auntie Margaret who left a rich legacy of malapropisms, mispronunciations an awful table manners that we still laugh at today.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The Nicholls horse that's fav in the Pendil was surely flattered lto against Shishkin so I'm backing GA Law to beat him. 15/8 fair in a likely two horse race.
Agree with that and backed it last night. I remember someone on here putting it up as a potential top class horse so with it looking like they're sticking to 2m4f I've had an ew bet on it in marsh novices at 33s.
Needs to do business today though
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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- Nov 14, 2006
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- 16,050
Backed it this morning. Firstly, they surely wouldn’t make the trip unless they thought the horse had a live chance, and secondly, because I want to instinctively oppose anything run by Alan King.
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I mentioned Admirals Secret the other day.
I believe it was Barjon who alluded to the fact forum member Viking mentioned the horse as one to follow?
Anyways, my question is, with most of the horses form being over 2M4F, should we take it as a given that the strongest possibility is he will run in the Paddy Power plate?
He is a hold up horse though, and does finish strongly.
So I just wonder if they're are serious about the Ultima entry?
Has Viking or anyone else got any view on it?
I'm close to submitting an anti post bet consisting of a few horses for the handicaps.
What race would you back Admirals Secret for?
If the trainer says anything can someone post it down on here please.
I believe it was Barjon who alluded to the fact forum member Viking mentioned the horse as one to follow?
Anyways, my question is, with most of the horses form being over 2M4F, should we take it as a given that the strongest possibility is he will run in the Paddy Power plate?
He is a hold up horse though, and does finish strongly.
So I just wonder if they're are serious about the Ultima entry?
Has Viking or anyone else got any view on it?
I'm close to submitting an anti post bet consisting of a few horses for the handicaps.
What race would you back Admirals Secret for?
If the trainer says anything can someone post it down on here please.
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I just checked the trainers website.
He suggests he is looking like a 3 mile chaser and will most likely run in the Ultima.
Sorted then..
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Good luck Marb but I doubt I’ll be backing him. The Ultima will be a very different test to the Class 3 handicaps he’s been running well in. I can see him getting too far back and the finishing speed he’s shown over 2.5m may not be enough against better animals over 3m
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Fair enough, Viking. Each to their own.
He finished a staying on length and a half behind the 158 rated chaser Aso the last day.
The winner Two For Gold and indeed Aso could yet frank the form this Saturday in a listed chase.
Off a mark of 142 I think Admirals Secret is very interesting each way. He'll carry a lovely light weight. 25/1 is a fair price too.
He finished a staying on length and a half behind the 158 rated chaser Aso the last day.
The winner Two For Gold and indeed Aso could yet frank the form this Saturday in a listed chase.
Off a mark of 142 I think Admirals Secret is very interesting each way. He'll carry a lovely light weight. 25/1 is a fair price too.
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Lingfield's 7f was always going to be too sharp for Gulliver 2.15S, particularly given its stack and sprint format. However he is 1-1 on this surface, having won a strongly run 6f contest (nightmare trip from outside stall) going away from the classy field in the closing stages.) Today's extra furlong should be well within his compass.
8/1 B365
8/1 B365
Last! Slow away & didn't like the kickback.
Newbury
2.30 Dino Velvet E/ W (NAP), should love the good ground and now back on a mark near his last winning rating, in the high 120s, he should be bang on the premises tomorrow.
Doncaster
4.05 Some Chaos NB is a horse I respect a lot. He's paid his way over fences the past few seasons, but now reverts to hurdles, in this handicap hurdle, from a 20lb lower hurdle mark than his chase mark.
I know he's been off the track for a few months, so hoping that was just a winter break. I reckon he will win this off bottom weight tomorrow. He's handicapped to win.
Good luck all.
2.30 Dino Velvet E/ W (NAP), should love the good ground and now back on a mark near his last winning rating, in the high 120s, he should be bang on the premises tomorrow.
Doncaster
4.05 Some Chaos NB is a horse I respect a lot. He's paid his way over fences the past few seasons, but now reverts to hurdles, in this handicap hurdle, from a 20lb lower hurdle mark than his chase mark.
I know he's been off the track for a few months, so hoping that was just a winter break. I reckon he will win this off bottom weight tomorrow. He's handicapped to win.
Good luck all.
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W6/1
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Odds on he may well be but Charlie Applebay looks to be taking a real liberty at Newcastle with Wesstern Synphony......only way he doesn't beat this lot is if Ryan Moore falls off him
1.67 way to big looks more like a 1.3 shot
1.67 way to big looks more like a 1.3 shot