What are you backing Today? Part 2

FiftyP said:
Well begod. The ferverence of your post has me doubting my own selections. If the blood is running for both these it's back to ew bets for me.
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Your excluded from my wrath I actually find your posts interesting and you certainly don't overpost with crazy tips..My old bookie once said if you want to make money run a book on the flat and back ew over the jumps.

Sometime I wish I had listened
 
I go along with grassy, tan. You ruin your own contributions by being so scathing and insulting to others. One of the joys about TalkingHorses when I came across it is how people can disagree, often quite strongly, but without rancour. Don’t spoil it, please.
 
The forum needs the short priced fav backers and people backing longer priced horses.

Its not just one or the other.
 
Tanlic said:
Your excluded from my wrath I actually find your posts interesting and you certainly don't overpost with crazy tips..My old bookie once said if you want to make money run a book on the flat and back ew over the jumps.

Sometime I wish I had listened
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There's definitely a place for DO's Longshots thread. It's a racing forum, and it would quickly die a death if all anyone ever did was put up sub-5/2 shots.

Clearly some of his selections are haymakers based on a hunch, but I don't see anything illegitimate about that approach. I have the occasional lunge myself, but they're hardly my core bets, and I suspect the same applies with DO.

That thread has landed its share pf punches over time, and I think the criticism is a bit unfair, to be honest.
 
Cheers, GH. I don't think I've ever suggested the Longshot thread was for serious punters.

I suspect the majority of people on here love the sport and bet modestly within their means. I would be mortified if anyone put a heavy bet on anything I put up on that thread although obviously I feel more strongly about some of the selections than others.

I don't even consider myself a 'tipster' either. I actually don't particularly like when people offer thanks or congratulations after a winner with words along the lines of 'great tipping'. It's not tipping. I'm merely letting people know what I have backed and 99% of the time why. I don't want the responsibility of being a 'tipster'.

Anyone with the remotest grasp of probability will know that a thread based on 20+/1 shots will produce many very long losing runs. A long losing run of longshots doesn't bother me in the least.

That's not the point of the thread. The point is to find 20+/1 shots that should be much shorter than the odds on offer. I think the thread has been very successful in that regard for several of its regular contributors.
 
Thats a very good response but I wouldn't say boo if I thought there was some logic in a selection but I am still trying to get my head round him and Marb gloating over the chances
of Global Citizen as a horse to follow in running because he only went up 2lbs to 136....
That's the same mark as he was off 2 races before when tailed of and beaten 64 lengths by Tritonic :blink:.

I must be missing something but I wish them the best of luck.

Dessie has put one up fir Friday I think he a real shout in Bells Of Peterboro 100/30 even if the so called gamble he predicted hasn't yet taken place.

I'll decide tomorrow whether to follow him in or not.
 
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Tanlic said:
Thats a very good response but I wouldn't say boo if I thought there was some logic in a selection but I am still trying to get my head round him and Marb gloating over the chances
of Global Citizen as a horse to follow in running because he only went up 2lbs to 136....
That's the same mark as he was off 2 races before when tailed of and beaten 64 lengths by Tritonic :blink:.

I must be missing something but I wish them the best of luck.

Dessie has put one up fir Friday I think he a real shout in Bells Of Peterboro 100/30 even if the so called gamble he predicted hasn't yet taken place.

I'll decide tomorrow whether to follow him in or not.
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Global Citizen was rated as high as 159 about three years ago, Tan.

His form basically deteriorated after that but after another recent wind operation his last run when second behind Tommy's Oscar off 134 was a much better run.

Just on the raw maths he was 5L behind Tommy's Oscar (156) carrying level weights, so Global Citizens current mark of 136 would seem to make him well handicapped especially if he maintains that form or improves upon it.

He might not show us this is in a race like the Betfair or even the County, but a race like the Imperial Cup at Sandown the week before the festival might be up his street.

Time will tell.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Huntingdon Friday 3.10 (Pertemps Qualifier) - Bells Of Peterboro 100/30 - I think this is a one-horse race. I’ve taken the price and will keep taking any price down to 2/1. I’m not into short-shots at the best of times, especially in handicaps, but I was deeply impressed with this one’s recent win. It will almost certainly need to go up the ratings to be sure of making the cut for the final so I reckon it will be trying, which is the main thing. Last year 126 made the cut but that was very much the exception due to the fewer Irish and social runners. I reckon this year it will be back up to the mid-130s so the selection will probably need to go up at least 7lbs. To do that he needs to win impressively. I just feel a bit frustrated that it doesn't figure in the ante-post market for the final as I'd want to have it onside ahead of this run.
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Prices up in most places now. I managed to get 7/2 as well but it's generally 9/4 so at least I have it onside for this race.
 
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Marb said:
Global Citizen was rated as high as 159 about three years ago, Tan.

His form basically deteriorated after that but after another recent wind operation his last run when second behind Tommy's Oscar off 134 was a much better run.

Just on the raw maths he was 5L behind Tommy's Oscar (156) carrying level weights, so Global Citizens current mark of 136 would seem to make him well handicapped especially if he maintains that form or improves upon it.

He might not show us this is in a race like the Betfair or even the County, but a race like the Imperial Cup at Sandown the week before the festival might be up his street.

Time will tell.
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You could argue he has run to his mark but it was very much a case of something had to finish 2nd to me and Dmac had half a ton up his sleeve according to him.
And so he should have had at the weights.
 
On the bright side Marb....Bet365 are still offering 11/4 Bells Of Peterboro and he was never any better than that with deductions off Betfair for about 60 quid.

I can see why you'd want to back him watching his win last time and the runner up ran better than the places suggested in her next race.

My only worry is the ground he looked very much at home in very soft ground last time and this is a much better race on quicker ground....But I am in for a few quid already and will go in again if he drifts again on the machine.

I was watching Mercurey when some horse threw it's jockey and bolted and that's the last thing I remember until I woke up..Had a dreadful day today after getting up very early driving 20km in the freezing cold for my 2nd jab only to be told they have run out of Phizer......come back on Friday they told me...Then I go to pick up my TB meds and my Doc tells me the Vaccination people are telling everyone to come back on Friday but there won't be any Phizer as Thailand have exhausted all they have and it will be two weeks before new supplies are available........Only good thing is the Asian bookies will lay about anything unlike their UK counterparts but even they were not interested in laying me 4/5....so I ended up with Zero on that one as well..c*nt of a day:)
 
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Live to fight another day, Fist. :)

I have completed my Skybet Chase form study for Saturday. There's a few horses at the top of the weights who seem to be 2M4F horses.

The fav trained by your man Nicky Henderson is a decent horse but I will be taking him on. Can this years Hennessy winner trained by Venetia Williams, Cloudy Glen, bounce back after its pulled up effort the last day?

The horse I came round to is Hurricane Harvey. He is still quite a lightly raced chaser. He was good as a novice chaser including when he won at Doncaster over 3 miles.

This season his best form came in the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton which I usually think is a decent enough race.

He has a significant pull at the weights with that days winner Rocco. Hurricane Harvey was giving Rocco 5lb in weight for the 8L beating he was given.

This Saturday Hurricane Harvey will be receiving 5lb in weight off Rocco, so by my calculations that is a 10lb pull at the weights.

It seems to me Fergal O Brien has a horse with potential to win a good handicap chase like this in the shape of Hurricane Harvey.

I just hope he can cope with being ridden midfield or tracking leaders as that is where he needs to be, as opposed to out the back and not travelling. He gets my vote each way anyway.
 
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Bells has drifter slightly on the machine but only 100 quid was matched and now he's back at 3/1 pre deductions.

Plenty time to get on so no panic.

I actually have no right for my unbeaten run to still be intact with Klassical getting stuffed yesterday.

I was just going to have a few quid on Bells of Peterboro but I am now haveing the 3***bet money I should have lost yesterday on him today plus the same gain on a safety net

I have studied the videos of the first 3 in the betting and have given them points out of 10
the first one I looked at was Gazette Bourgeoise who imressed me quite a bit.
Harry Bannister had him up with the leaders all the way and from 3 out all the others bar one were feeling the pinch.
The horse just gept galloping and even when the second tried to peg him back t was never going to happen.

I give him 7.5 out of 10

Bells of Peterboro was ridden just off the pace but not right up there like GB and while the opposition was far from great
and Kateson did absolutely nothing to frank the form he bear her so easily and by that far in the style of a really good horse
the fail to frank the form seems meaningless. When he changed gear it was smooth as silk and I don't think he knew he had a race
This lookks much tougher but he might just win again
Don't know what TV has in mind for him as I think he looks a mile better on soft/heavy Cheltenham could be off the radar

I give him 8/10 more if the rains come.

Tip Top Cat was completing a hatrick in what on paper seemed to be a better race but I have my doubts if in reality it was.
Nothing was travelling in that race from at least a mile from home. He was held up which is also a big minus here with
2 very strong up there horses to try and pass if ridden the same way again I think he's up against it.
6.5/10 for me.

3*** win bet Bells of Peterboro 11/4 plus Gazette Bourgeoise 2 places 3*** bet 6/4 so if either wins I come out on top.

If Tip Top Cat wins don't worry I will blame DO:lol:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Prices up in most places now. I managed to get 7/2 as well but it's generally 9/4 so at least I have it onside for this race.
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BOP is now generally 3/1 and 7/2 in places. That's dented my confidence, I have to say. I'd hate to think they're banking on his current mark making the cut or just concentrating on qualifying today and maybe picking up a penalty closer to the race if he looks like needing one.

Oh well. Alea iacta est, as Julius once said.
 
There doesn't seem to be a great deal of confidence behind him this morning, but I think Before Midnight has to be forgiven his effort in the Desert Orchid, where he really had no chance at the weights against the also-rans, let alone Shishkin.

I think he's possibly a little better going left-handed, and a mark of 148 is still workable for a horse who might still have a bit of progression left in him. B365's 9/2 looks on the big side against Funamuble Sivola, who I think is a soft favourite.
 
The eye is drawn to the booking of Brian Hughes for Oliver Sherwood in the 2.25 at Doncaster but I am taking a chance and having a small wager on Dan Skelton's newcomer to hurdling Ridgeway
 
I think if I fell into a bucket of **** the way my luck is going I would come out clean.

Bells of Perorboro obviously had me and others fooled when winning last time like a real good un and ran stone last but after looking he might be unplace Gazette Bourgeoise ran on like a tiger and held on to second
giving me a nice little profit which is better than a poke in the eey with a sharp stick
 
Very disappointing from BOP, looking in trouble with a circuit to go. That was a pale shadow of the performance that blew his rivals away last time. Maybe that race took more out of it than it looked at the time.

Also very disappointing from Vienna Court in the mares' chase, illustrating the perils of backing in mares-only races. She was only giving 2lbs to a horse rated 10lbs inferior.
 
I am taking the profit and having it on Iceo who I already backed at 3.1 and 3.05 on the machine.

Pied Piper is a warm order but I thought the race he won in Ireland had 99% more non triers than triers in it and in the end would have been second if the second had jumped alittle bit better

PN Loves his Saturday winner and I reckon Iceo at around 2/1 looks nailed on to put a smile on his face
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, GH. I don't think I've ever suggested the Longshot thread was for serious punters.

I suspect the majority of people on here love the sport and bet modestly within their means. I would be mortified if anyone put a heavy bet on anything I put up on that thread although obviously I feel more strongly about some of the selections than others.

I don't even consider myself a 'tipster' either. I actually don't particularly like when people offer thanks or congratulations after a winner with words along the lines of 'great tipping'. It's not tipping. I'm merely letting people know what I have backed and 99% of the time why. I don't want the responsibility of being a 'tipster'.

Anyone with the remotest grasp of probability will know that a thread based on 20+/1 shots will produce many very long losing runs. A long losing run of longshots doesn't bother me in the least.

That's not the point of the thread. The point is to find 20+/1 shots that should be much shorter than the odds on offer. I think the thread has been very successful in that regard for several of its regular contributors.
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I doint think you need to jusify yourself on here DO, especially not to that particular poster, who for some reason no one seems willing to call him out for the **** that he is.

I put him on ignore which helps but of course others keep quoting his posts :D
 
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