What are you backing Today? Part 2

Cheddleton's only try beyond 2m was at 2m2f at Kelso (stiff finish) and his finishing effort wasn't convincing. It's actually a very competitive race [on my ratings] with pretty much the entire field handicapped to be fanciable in an average Saturday Class 2 TV handicap.

[TABLE="width: 530"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
164
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cheddleton
[/TD]
[TD]11-11
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]t
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lieutenant Rocco
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]140
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Riders Onthe Storm
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]{174}
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Amoola Gold
[/TD]
[TD]11-12
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dinny Lacey
[/TD]
[TD]10-13
[/TD]
[TD]137
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]p v
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jacamar
[/TD]
[TD]10-8
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Falco Blitz
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]+p nov
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Wishing And Hoping
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Our Power
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]p nov
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Celebre D'Allen
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[TD]+p Hd
[/TD]
[TD]-
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The King Of May
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[TD](163p)
v
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Reading trainer comments on ATR, for the Kingmaker, it seems that Edwardstone is out to take the freshness off, while the Skelton horse is really up for it.Not often you get such insights, so I've taken them at their word and done the f/c at 4.03 with B365.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cheddleton's only try beyond 2m was at 2m2f at Kelso (stiff finish) and his finishing effort wasn't convincing.
Click to expand...

That was a novice hurdle on heavy ground though. Stamina limitations over hurdles can be overcome over fences, think Champ in the RSA compared to his Ballydoyle effort the year before.
 
Hopefully can get past the first couple of races and create some interest

Bravemansgame
Pats Fancy
x
What's upwith you
Brimming Water
Sussex Ranger
x
Royal Pagaille
x
Funbule Sivola
Sky Pirate
x
JPR One
Boothill
Broomfield Burg
x
Great Heart Jac
Make my Day

72 x 20p Accumalators
 
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I've decided to go with 15/2 Sky Pirate in the Game Spirit. On my figures there is nothing between him and Sceau Royal but the latter is only 5/2 and on TV this morning some were arguing that 5/2 was value. I don't see SR winning the race and, in truth, I don't see SP winning either but there are question marks about Nicholls's form and Funambule Sivola is up in grade again. 15/2 SP is far too big.
 
Euronymous said:
That was a novice hurdle on heavy ground though. Stamina limitations over hurdles can be overcome over fences, think Champ in the RSA compared to his Ballydoyle effort the year before.
Click to expand...
Agree; been saying for years that more stamina is needed over hurdles because there are fewer, and smaller, obstacles to break up the pace.
 
Euronymous said:
That was a novice hurdle on heavy ground though. Stamina limitations over hurdles can be overcome over fences, think Champ in the RSA compared to his Ballydoyle effort the year before.
Click to expand...

I think today is about seeing IF Cheddleton can take the step up in trip rather than improving for it. If it wins, I can claim a top-rated winner :lol:
 
I am with Euro on Cheddleton. Very good chance.

I also agree on Sky Pirate. Seems like value.

The market support for Grumpy Charley in the first is interesting. He looked a big improver last season over hurdles before a poor run at the festival in the supreme novices.

Now jumping fences perhaps he can serve it up to Bravemansgame getting the massive weight concession.

Good luck all today.
 
Too many fiddly mistakes by Sky Pirate eventually took their toll but I'm not convinced he was trying anyway. The jockey's 'effort' from two out was very unconvincing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
WAR 3.15 ...
...
I prefer to look at the other novices, Falco Blitz, Our Power (NR) and Celebre D’Allen, with preference for the last-named as he is totally unexposed over fences and could have the winning of this if he makes the notional 10lbs’ improvement for the switch. This is his first run over fences in this country but was rated 139 in his younger days in France, running in Listed races. I just wonder if the ground will be soft enough for him. At slightly longer odds, Falco Blitz might be the percentage value.
Click to expand...

Typical narrow it down to two and let the odds put me off the winner. I know why it happened. I don't look at prices until after I've done my figures and I was expecting CDA to be around 10/1 and seeing it as favourite at 9/2 when I did check the betting pissed me off. Fortunately I kept stakes to a minimum on FB. That 9/2 now looks like value.

Where's that boak emoticon...
 
Marb said:
I am with Euro on Cheddleton. Very good chance.

I also agree on Sky Pirate. Seems like value.

The market support for Grumpy Charley in the first is interesting. He looked a big improver last season over hurdles before a poor run at the festival in the supreme novices.

Now jumping fences perhaps he can serve it up to Bravemansgame getting the massive weight concession.

Good luck all today.
Click to expand...

Cheddleton turning out to be a good yardstick.

Beaten the same sort of distance today as he was against Eclair D'ainay at Wetherby.
 
This is a' what are you backing' thread rather than a recommendation thread.My submission definitely fits into the first category.
In January 2020 i backed Harrington's Silver Sheen in the Pertemps qualifier at Warwick. I was aware that the yard was quietly confident that the horse had a good chance in the Final at the Festival if qualifying in what was the last qualifier. Prior to the race my betting focus was substantially on the final not the qualifier as placing would be sufficient. i was on for a fair sum spread widely in the market at very long prices.. SS ran a tidy race and looked likely to win approaching the last until stumbling very badly but Robbie Power amazingly got him up to win.
My hopes were shattered before the Festival when i read they following RP headlines.Jessica Harrington 'gutted' as Silver Sheen ruled out of Pertemps Final.

Tomorrow's Warwick qualifier offers another opportunity and Robbie is back.
 
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I was on it last year too, TS.

This race today could be very competitive despite just the seven runners (and they might take the top-weight out having run and won yesterday). None has yet qualified for the final and all bar the penalised top-weight and maybe Coeur Serein will probably have to get their mark up by a pound (Silver Sheen and Eminent Poet) or more (the others) if the final reverts to its usual level. Last year, the winner, Mrs Milner, got in off 126, the bottom mark, but the average in the preceding few years was around 135.

Silver Sheen will probably need to be in the first three to go up enough to be sure of making the cut in the final. Only one bookie (at oddschecker) has priced up SS for the final. I've taken some of the 33/1 NRNB. Fingers crossed that the journey over isn't wasted.
 
Snow Leopardess and Elegant Escape double (4.00 and 4.30 Exeter). The former should win this comfortably and the latter loo too well handicapped to ignore


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Tout Seul said:
This is a' what are you backing' thread rather than a recommendation thread.My submission definitely fits into the first category.
In January 2020 i backed Harrington's Silver Sheen in the Pertemps qualifier at Warwick. I was aware that the yard was quietly confident that the horse had a good chance in the Final at the Festival if qualifying in what was the last qualifier. Prior to the race my betting focus was substantially on the final not the qualifier as placing would be sufficient. i was on for a fair sum spread widely in the market at very long prices.. SS ran a tidy race and looked likely to win approaching the last until stumbling very badly but Robbie Power amazingly got him up to win.
My hopes were shattered before the Festival when i read they following RP headlines.Jessica Harrington 'gutted' as Silver Sheen ruled out of Pertemps Final.

Tomorrow's Warwick qualifier offers another opportunity and Robbie is back.
Click to expand...

The topweight is out so all six will qualify [if they run]. It's just a question of what they do to their mark today. My earlier comments still apply.
 
Petrol Head 4.10 Punch
Won very easily over 2m4f at Fairyhouse (raised 14Lb) on his penultimate start. Then strangely came over to England and was dropped to 2m at Warwick. He ran very much the same type of race as at Fh but the 2m pace at the back end of the race was totally against him. At 10/1 for 5 places E/W, I think this 3 miler at Punchestown represents great value....
 
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viking said:
Snow Leopardess and Elegant Escape double (4.00 and 4.30 Exeter). The former should win this comfortably and the latter loo too well handicapped to ignore


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Click to expand...

Kicking myself for not just backing Snow Leopardess. Still 13/8 when I posted but allowed myself to believe EE’s run at Taunton was a sign he still had something left


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I thought it was interesting that jessie sent over Silver sheen.they must think it can still do a job as it was favourite in 2020.i believe it's still 4lb higher than when it won at warwick but could drop a couple of pounds for today.
 
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