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What are you backing Today? Part 2

Slim said:
Haydock 3.00
Luttrell Lad (NAP)

Haydock 2.25
Party Business

Haydock 4.10
Twinjets
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Good to see I have a fellow forumite with me on Luttrell Lad.

I went with it just on my gut feeling, what about you Slim?

What's the reasoning? Info? Or gut feeling?
 
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Peggoty 6.10Wd
Ed Walker, trainer: "She has good form from last year. She didn't enjoy the all-weather last time but should have won at Bath the time before, she never really got a run. She's been training well and this seems like a nice starting point for her ? we think she's a well-handicapped filly.
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Clearly they do, runs in a 0-90 off a lowly 73.
11/2 generally.
 
Treyarnon Bay should be an absolute steering job for Nico tonight. The opposition looks moderate at best

Should be in the "will win" "should be odds on" threads

Cost 60k and has come on leaps according to a social media contact (Usually very reliable) and I'll be surprised if the owner doesn't get most of that back today off the bookies.

Treyarnon Bay Evens 5Star ***** bet.
 
Tanlic said:
Treyarnon Bay should be an absolute steering job for Nico tonight. The opposition looks moderate at best

Should be in the "will win" "should be odds on" threads

Cost 60k and has come on leaps according to a social media contact (Usually very reliable) and I'll be surprised if the owner doesn't get most of that back today off the bookies.

Treyarnon Bay Evens 5Star ***** bet.
Click to expand...

I'd be worried this isn't as cut and dried as it looks at first glance. Ground may be a little on the firm side which might go against some of these (incl Treyarnon Bay), especially anything with significant promise where they may be thinking 'don't let her down on this ground if it's not going easily'. I'd be looking at the first 2 races to see what it looks like.

Night on the Town is supposedly rated ( though I'd be looking for softer ground, at a guess. Check the sire.)
Walk of no Shame could be anything
Mel Rowley is a name to remember and Masked Dance could do well at some point
For Gina ran OK in a Newbury bumper and may have improved for Lucy Wadham (and Desert King in the line is notable)
Space Voyage and Olly Murphy, say no more

...and there's another one I won't mention that hopefully will be on Desert Orchid's longshot thread in around 5 - 8 runs time (hopefully at treble figures!)

This might be harder to call than it looks, and it may well turn out that this isn't a bad race, hence, if Treyarnon Bay does take it, yes it's possible we saw a listed mares winner at some point. At a minimum, if any of these do get close, they may be worth noting for future races.
 
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TB won well I think..although if anyone had a ton on her, they would have had some adrenaline surging around 2f out.

Night on the town did seem to run as if softer ground would help. Hunted up round the back for most of the race but maybe just didn't have the pace to get forward early enough. Finished well but unfortunately well enough that we won't get any nice enough price if they do find a soft ground bumper.

Walk of no shame did fight hard enough till seemingly outclassed.

But the very nearly nightmare scenario of the race........

"and there's another one I won't mention that hopefully will be on Desert Orchid's longshot thread in around 5 - 8 runs time (hopefully at treble figures!)"


She shot us in the foot and ran 2nd at 125-1, arguably finishing best of all. That wasn't supposed to happen till a class 5 novices handicap in about a year's time!! and for a couple of seconds a furlong out the real nightmare looked a worrying possibility! Clearly, that's done us for the longshot thread at 3 figures but maybe she can run a few bad races from here and get us 20s or so in a handicap down the line.

All in all, some lessons learned (or relearned, depending on how you look at it)
 
Treyarnon Bay Job done
Ran a bit green but picked up well enough when Nico gave her a couple of slaps
Never at any point was I worried despite the fact she didn't get into full flight until the last 100 yds.

The fact she was a bit green I certainly wouldn't be rushing to back anything that finished behind her anytime soon.
 
I'm globetrotting to back French War 2/1 at Sale Australia.

A bit like Treyarnon Bay the opposition looks moderate and they've had this in mind for him for a few months
 
Marbuzet Bev 4.45 Easterby is one of those trainers where I back one & it runs like a drain then pops up at a good price in the next run or 2 but nothing ventured.......

I'm prepared to have a little on this one today (already backed it on the exchange).
 
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11-May-22
13:06:05 14:15 Worcester
Powder Trick - To Be Placed
Betfair Bet ID 1:****** | Matched: 11-May-22 13:06:05 Back 7.40 2.00 -- --
12.80
Matched
11-May-22
13:05:51 14:15 Worcester
Powder Trick - 2m Mdn NHF
Betfair Bet ID 1:2679****** | Matched: 11-May-22 13:05:51 Back 38.00 2.00 -- --
74.00
Matched
11-May-22
11:30:53 15:35 York
Ching Shih - To Be Placed
Betfair Bet ID 1:2******* | Matched: 11-May-22 11:30:53 Back 7.60 2.00 -- --
13.20
Matched
11-May-22
11:30:40 15:35 York
Ching Shih - 1m2f Grp 3
Betfair Bet ID 1:26*****| Matched: 11-May-22 11:30:40 Back 34.00 2.00 -- --
66.00
Matched
11-May-22
08:16:28 15:35 York
Luna Dorada - 1m2f Grp 3
Betfair Bet ID 1:2******* | Matched: 11-May-22 08:16:28 Back 20.82 3.00 -- --
59.47
Matched
11-May-22
08:08:46 14:25 York
Devilwala - To Be Placed
Betfair Bet ID 1:2****** | Matched: 11-May-22 08:08:46 Back 9.21 2.32 -- --
19.04
Matched
11-May-22
08:08:14 14:25 York
Devilwala - 6f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:26******* | Matched: 11-May-22 08:08:14 Back 48.00 2.00 -- --
94.00
Matched
11-May-22
07:07:19 14:25 York
Mr Lupton - To Be Placed
Betfair Bet ID 1:26****** | Matched: 11-May-22 07:07:19 Back 5.14 3.00 -- --
12.41
Matched
11-May-22
07:07:03 14:25 York
Mr Lupton - 6f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:2******* | Matched: 11-May-22 07:07:03 Back 21.00 3.00 -- --
60.00
Matched

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way
11th May NEWTON ABBOT 13:30 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 3m 1f 170y - Each Way
6. Baily Gorse
11/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
11th May NEWTON ABBOT 14:35 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 216y - Each Way
3. Oxwich Bay
5/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
11th May NEWTON ABBOT 15:10 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 2f 110y - Each Way
11. Kapitaliste
20/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
11th May NEWTON ABBOT 15:45 FLAT 2m 0f 167y - Each Way
4. Kentford Swansong
14/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
Stake:
£21.00
Potential Returns:
£22,696.18
 
Tomorrow in the 1 o'clock at salisbury I've done DIAMOND COTTAGE drifted from 8s to 12s.
Long standing maiden but has been placed a few times.
It ran on tuesday over 6f and steps back up to 7f tomorrow and has run well here in the past.
Getting lumps of weight off the favourite.
 
Tomorrow in the 1 o'clock at salisbury I've done DIAMOND COTTAGE drifted from 8s to 12s.
Long standing maiden but has been placed a few times.
It ran on tuesday over 6f and steps back up to 7f tomorrow and has run well here in the past.
Getting lumps of weight off the favourite.
 
Brian Hughes looks likely to try and make all in the first at Perth
but I think he'll be up against it. There's absolutely nothing to
say the drop in trip will improve his chances.

Cirque Royal's 5th at Cheltehham gives him a right chance here
and he has been knocking on the door in 3 of his last 4 races.

He clearly didn't appreciate the heavy ground at Aintree
and went from looking like taking a hand in the finsih to stopping like shot.

He travels well in his races so I expect keeping tabs on Battle Frontier won't be aproblem
and I'd expect him to win with afair bit in hand,


The 11/4 was quickly snatched up :(

Cirque Royal 5/2 3Star***Bet
 
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Tanlic said:
Brian Hughes looks likely to try and make all in the first at Perth
but I think he'll be up against it. There's absolutely nothing to
say the drop in trip will improve his chances.

Cirque Royal's 5th at Cheltehham gives him a right chance here
and he has been knocking on the door in 3 of his last 4 races.

He clearly didn't appreciate the heavy ground at Aintree
and went from looking like taking a hand in the finsih to stopping like shot.

He travels well in his races so I expect keeping tabs on Battle Frontier won't be aproblem
and I'd expect him to win with afair bit in hand,


The 11/4 was quickly snatched up :(

Cirque Royal 5/2 3Star***Bet
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Easy money,well done Tan.
 
Saturday

Newmarket 1.50 I like Savvy Victory as a longshot. He was one of those 2 year old colts who kept threatening to win his maiden but finished second or third a few times. He then won first time out this season before a respectable third on soft ground the last day when third, beaten about a dozen lengths behind Changingoftheguard with New London back in second in the Chester Vase.

I think Savvy Victory is interesting back at ten furlongs and maybe he can out run the big odds in this lesser race against a few unknown quantities, including the short priced Charlie Appleby and Godolphin owned favourite.
 
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Saturday

Newmarket 3.00 Natural Path ran a huge race the last day abroad when fourth behind a horse of Charlie Appleby's and Godolphins who has now won three on the bounce rated 105. Natural Path has won 5/16 races which is an excellent strike rate and he looks one of the best handicapped in the race for trainer Michael Bell. I think he can run very well to go close at a big price.
 
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In the Lockinge, I've taken Alcohol Free each-way [3 places] at 5/1 without Baaeed. I have her second top to him on my figures and thought she ran with plenty of promise last time. At the moment there doesn't seem to be any market strength behind her but it looks a low-risk bet and maybe safer than a win bet on the hotpot.
 
Quite a few tomorrow:

Newmarket 2.25 - Harry Three. Ran into one last time after he was at the wrong place on the track when 2nd in a good handicap at the Craven meeting. There seems to be a golden highway judging by today's racing and he's drawn 7/10 - At around 13/2 he's a solid bet.

London Gold Cup - Israr has been discussed on the strong form thread but Independent Act who was just behind him last time out has run a stinker just now at Newbury which is worrying. This is hard but when you have one to follow you just have to hit and hope.

Newmarket 3.00 - Wizard D'amour like Harry Three is drawn well here and as a front runner you can see him bagging the rail and being hard to beat. A better track position and a little weight pull should see him reverse with Shine so Bright.

Lockinge - I knew when Alcohol Free was poor at Sandown first time out in a Group 2 that she'd be overs for her next crack at a Group 1 and whilst I don't fancy her to beat the fav here 11/2 is available in the w/o market and that's too big. I think she's better than Mother Earth and Real World surely needs a stiffer test than a mile on decent ground. The rest look outclassed.

Doncaster 6.35 - I mentioned Definitive Force in the horses noted in running thread and he's worth backing at 11/4 back at Doncaster over a furlong further than his win at the track a few weeks ago. He lost ground at the start that day but won going away and is only up 4lbs.
 
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