What are you backing Today? Part 2

Euronymous said:
Quite a few tomorrow:

Newmarket 2.25 - Harry Three. Ran into one last time after he was at the wrong place on the track when 2nd in a good handicap at the Craven meeting. There seems to be a golden highway judging by today's racing and he's drawn 7/10 - At around 13/2 he's a solid bet.

London Gold Cup - Israr has been discussed on the strong form thread but Independent Act who was just behind him last time out has run a stinker just now at Newbury which is worrying. This is hard but when you have one to follow you just have to hit and hope.

Newmarket 3.00 - Wizard D'amour like Harry Three is drawn well here and as a front runner you can see him bagging the rail and being hard to beat. A better track position and a little weight pull should see him reverse with Shine so Bright.

Lockinge - I knew when Alcohol Free was poor at Sandown first time out in a Group 2 that she'd be overs for her next crack at a Group 1 and whilst I don't fancy her to beat the fav here 11/2 is available in the w/o market and that's too big. I think she's better than Mother Earth and Real World surely needs a stiffer test than a mile on decent ground. The rest look outclassed.

Doncaster 6.35 - I mentioned Definitive Force in the horses noted in running thread and he's worth backing at 11/4 back at Doncaster over a furlong further than his win at the track a few weeks ago. He lost ground at the start that day but won going away and is only up 4lbs.
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Yes, we discussed Wizard D'Amour after its last run. I'm on at 5/1 (BOG) and reckon if it's trying it wins. I just worry about the 'if'.
 
Don't have enough time to write these up fully, but......

Harold Shand 3.45 Chelms Ran in an Ascot listed race a couple of years ago, I believe the stable were thinking they might have a live one. Lightly raced since, I'm guessing some physical problems. Can't find any info anywhere. Hayley Turner has a reasonable record for the stable, and Spencer can get one ready after a break. Bit of a stab in the twilight, probably one where a promising run without getting close is the preferable result.


First Company 2.55 Thirsk Eye was drawn first to the two Midgley runners, with Lee on Ballintoy Harbour seeming the right one. But FC has a very interesting profile/history. Near certainty that Declan Carroll will find a race this season at some point. Not big enough to go on the longshot thread, but fairly close.



Broctune Red (5.45 Thirsk) and Oso Rapido (8.40 Don), neither would surprise if going well in these contests. Neither big enough for anything other than interest stakes, though.
 
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Tiber Flow 1.25Nb
Trainer says he's running to see if the colt has enough speed for the Coronation Cup. I reckon he will have, and backed him accordingly.
5/2 Betfair
 
Can’t get anything right lately. I was really looking forward to Atlantis 4:10 Nmk today. Last night’s 9/4 long gone and best is 6/5 atm. Poor value, but have taken it.

6th/15 on debut run she was slowly away and raced several lengths behind the field, but started to pick it up with less than 3 furlongs left to finish with a bit of a flurry only a couple of lengths behind the second. Good educational run full of promise.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Lockinge, I've taken Alcohol Free each-way [3 places] at 5/1 without Baaeed. I have her second top to him on my figures and thought she ran with plenty of promise last time. At the moment there doesn't seem to be any market strength behind her but it looks a low-risk bet and maybe safer than a win bet on the hotpot.
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I've now also taken 14/1 ew Sir Busker w/o the fav.
 
Interested by the drop in trip for Scope. I haven't seen any comments from Ralph Beckett yet.

I do think he is a horse of high calibre so took the 6s earlier. His price is starting to shorten now which is understandable.
 
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Interesting race that. The filly makes the market in that she's giving weight to some smart colts and tbh not sure Scope can give 7lbs to a race fit Foxes Tales over 12f
 
Euronymous said:
Interesting race that. The filly makes the market in that she's giving weight to some smart colts and tbh not sure Scope can give 7lbs to a race fit Foxes Tales over 12f
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Scope has run well giving the winner 4lbs and pulling four lengths clear of the third.

I think he would be better with some give in the ground too. He won his maiden on heavy and has won on good to soft.

I am not sure if The Gold Cup is still the target but I would only back him in that race if there was some proper cut in the going.

He could improve on todays performance another 7-10lbs on softer ground. His group one win at Longchamp was on very soft.
 
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Euronymous said:
Quite a few tomorrow:

Newmarket 2.25 - Harry Three. Ran into one last time after he was at the wrong place on the track when 2nd in a good handicap at the Craven meeting. There seems to be a golden highway judging by today's racing and he's drawn 7/10 - At around 13/2 he's a solid bet.

London Gold Cup - Israr has been discussed on the strong form thread but Independent Act who was just behind him last time out has run a stinker just now at Newbury which is worrying. This is hard but when you have one to follow you just have to hit and hope.

Newmarket 3.00 - Wizard D'amour like Harry Three is drawn well here and as a front runner you can see him bagging the rail and being hard to beat. A better track position and a little weight pull should see him reverse with Shine so Bright.

Lockinge - I knew when Alcohol Free was poor at Sandown first time out in a Group 2 that she'd be overs for her next crack at a Group 1 and whilst I don't fancy her to beat the fav here 11/2 is available in the w/o market and that's too big. I think she's better than Mother Earth and Real World surely needs a stiffer test than a mile on decent ground. The rest look outclassed.

Doncaster 6.35 - I mentioned Definitive Force in the horses noted in running thread and he's worth backing at 11/4 back at Doncaster over a furlong further than his win at the track a few weeks ago. He lost ground at the start that day but won going away and is only up 4lbs.
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Excellent shout with Harry Three. I hope you cleared up. Well done.
 
Euronymous said:
Quite a few tomorrow:

Newmarket 2.25 - Harry Three. Ran into one last time after he was at the wrong place on the track when 2nd in a good handicap at the Craven meeting. There seems to be a golden highway judging by today's racing and he's drawn 7/10 - At around 13/2 he's a solid bet.

London Gold Cup - Israr has been discussed on the strong form thread but Independent Act who was just behind him last time out has run a stinker just now at Newbury which is worrying. This is hard but when you have one to follow you just have to hit and hope.

Newmarket 3.00 - Wizard D'amour like Harry Three is drawn well here and as a front runner you can see him bagging the rail and being hard to beat. A better track position and a little weight pull should see him reverse with Shine so Bright.

Lockinge - I knew when Alcohol Free was poor at Sandown first time out in a Group 2 that she'd be overs for her next crack at a Group 1 and whilst I don't fancy her to beat the fav here 11/2 is available in the w/o market and that's too big. I think she's better than Mother Earth and Real World surely needs a stiffer test than a mile on decent ground. The rest look outclassed.

Doncaster 6.35 - I mentioned Definitive Force in the horses noted in running thread and he's worth backing at 11/4 back at Doncaster over a furlong further than his win at the track a few weeks ago. He lost ground at the start that day but won going away and is only up 4lbs.
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Looking good, Euro :thumbsup:

I haven't backed Israr (haven't backed anything in the race) so it goes unpenalised.
 
I suspect Joe Fanning overdid the front-running tactics on Wizard D'Amour. I await the sectionals with interest. I had the winner top rated but really fancied WDA to improve past him so I'm disappointed with the run.
 
Marb said:
Saturday

Newmarket 3.00 Natural Path ran a huge race the last day abroad when fourth behind a horse of Charlie Appleby's and Godolphins who has now won three on the bounce rated 105. Natural Path has won 5/16 races which is an excellent strike rate and he looks one of the best handicapped in the race for trainer Michael Bell. I think he can run very well to go close at a big price.
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A nice placer and this horse needs following now. Hopefully won't go up too much from a mark of 86. I will be watching out for him in all the big mile handicaps including at Rpyal Ascot and the golden mile at Goodwood.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
In the Lockinge, I've taken Alcohol Free each-way [3 places] at 5/1 without Baaeed. I have her second top to him on my figures and thought she ran with plenty of promise last time. At the moment there doesn't seem to be any market strength behind her but it looks a low-risk bet and maybe safer than a win bet on the hotpot.
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Money back but a wee bit disappointing. Ground too fast maybe?
 
I think she needs a faster pace. Can't believe she didn't beat Chindit tbh.

Good day overall. I lost my **** badly yesterday and apologies again, gotta take the long term view with punting.
 
Early indications are that the principals in the Lockinge have pretty much run to their ORs, with Alcohol Free and, to a lesser extent, Mother Earth underperforming and Sunray Major taking a good step forward. The handicapper might hit him with a 4lbs rise.
 
Didn't know where to put this, but it' surely worth a mentione on the forum.
Not very often I'd 'wow' at a performance,but I did one today at the Lockinge.
Baaeed's win was electric, and his potential for improvement incomprehesible.
 
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