What are you backing Today? Part 2

Few today, hope Haydock have sorted the issue from yesterday evening.

Thunder Legend 1.10. Behind probable group horse Alflaila at Ascot on his first start for Haggas he was fresh early and got tired and drifted late. He was third that day and the second, War in Heaven, ran no sort of race last weekend at Goodwood but he was badly drawn for a hold up horse and seemed to take a dislike to that track.

Noon Star 2.55. I was against this one in the Middleton but here she's up in trip and down in grade. The fav is a silly price on what she's done and although I fear the Harrington filly I'm not convinced she'll stay 12f.

The Cookstown Cafu 4.40. Ran a good race from a bad position at York at the Dante meeting where it was hard to come from the back. This has been well backed, was 6/1 last night.

Natural Path 4.45 Chelmsford. Reasoning for this one is on the Ascot thread.
 
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Bit late it looks like, but Ham and Jam 8:45 Salisbury. Three rubbish runs to get mark, now up in distance in lower class. 11/1 last night now 5/1 and even 7/2 in places.
 
I'm with Euro on Natural Path in the 4.45 at Chelmsford.

I would also give a good shout to Viola in the 2.55 at Haydock as I reckon there is still a career best on turf waiting to happen from her. She is a lightly raced 5 year old and after a decent break the last run does need forgiving. I reckon she can run a big race today and she is a positive in the betting market which I view as a good sign.
 
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2.44 Cartmel
Latino Fling looks progressive and. can win this with Brian Hughes up. 10/3 Bet365

3.19 Cartmel
Native Fighter likes it here and can go well with the benefit of a run on the flat. 15/2 Skybet 5 places. Bigger elsewhere but fewer places

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Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Haydock 1.45 - Clarendon House 6/1 - You can get 13/2 with one bookie but Hills are going four places and will boost the price to 13/2 (near as dammit) anyway. It strikes me as a very low-risk each-way punt. Dragon Symbol (9/4) has a huge advantage on RPRs and if he could be guaranteed to return to form he should be odds on. However, there wasn’t much in the way of promise in that recent run and I’m reluctant to go in at short odds.
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Not off an inch :(:mad:

Nice to see Dragon Symbol show something approaching his old form. The winner is on a really nice curve. I just thought he had too much to find today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Plenty of good racing today but not a lot of betting material for me.

Hay 1.45 Clarendon House
Hay 2.20 Forza Orta
Hay 3.30 Kinross

(Plus the longshot.)
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I'll need to take a step back and have a wee think about what I'm backing or how the ratings are doing. Too many are running miles below [my] expectations.

I might need to concentrate on the most valuable races and let the 20k-50k ones go for now. I wouldn't be surprised if these losers return to form in better races...
 
Marb said:
I'm with Euro on Natural Path in the 4.45 at Chelmsford.

I would also give a good shout to Viola in the 2.55 at Haydock as I reckon there is still a career best on turf waiting to happen from her. She is a lightly raced 5 year old and after a decent break the last run does need forgiving. I reckon she can run a big race today and she is a positive in the betting market which I view as a good sign.
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What a funny run from Viola in second when finishing like a train even though she looked unbalanced at the line.

I will have to settle for each way returns.
 
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Euronymous said:
If I had a filly bred to be better at 4 than 3 I'd have her with Fanshawe. He's top class with those.
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Yea true.

I have had a decent day backed a couple winners, (I love that Pogo) and a couple of decent priced placers in my 10p each way Lucky 63.

It the last one Natural Path could oblige that would round it off nicely for me.
 
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barjon said:
Bit late it looks like, but Ham and Jam 8:45 Salisbury. Three rubbish runs to get mark, now up in distance in lower class. 11/1 last night now 5/1 and even 7/2 in places.
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Wandered about looking for room in second last furlong, thought he was coming to win it inside the last furlong, but didn’t sustain the run.
 
Nothing from tracker and otherwise I seem fixated on debut handicaps and lower class atm. Two possibles at Lingfield where ATR reckon there’s no draw bias , but the DrawBias site say that over 50% of the straight race winners have come from the two highest draws and reckon there is a massive high draw bias. Only fun bets.

Libertus 4:30 - handicap debut, wunderkind up, drawn high, 3/1 atm
Oh Sweet Tabu 2:55 - drawn high, quite promising run in Class2 at York, this one is Class5, 9/2 atm
 
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A risky one but I don't think Jerrysback should be 10/1 and 9/1 in the 3.15 Cartmel. There is one more day in him, the question is will it be today.
 
Tonto Spirit has a first class record at Carmel but has run some real stinkers lately.

His presence and local following ensure Clear the Runway who should be 4/6 IMO is available at odds against.

Clear the Runway 5star*****bet 7/4 av BFE
 
Thanks. Ridden like he was the certainty his mark entitled him to be.
 
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