What are you backing Today? Part 2

Brighton

4.55 Early prices are up and King Crimson is 14/1 near rank outsider. He runs first time out this season and while his record after a break isn't fantastic, this fella now at 10 years of age has really paid his way for this stable and connections.

His strike rate is 11/63 on turf which isn't too bad at all, just under 20 percent it is, and the fact he is still in training at 10 years of age tells me they still feel there is another race worth winning with King Crimson.

You look back at some of the handicap marks he has been on in the past and this mark of 53 looks exploitable. I will roll the dice even though it such a low level race.

I won't blame anyone for not following me in but I thought the logic was half decent with this selection so worth putting my reasoning down on here.
 
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barjon said:
Nothing from tracker and otherwise I seem fixated on debut handicaps and lower class atm. Two possibles at Lingfield where ATR reckon there’s no draw bias , but the DrawBias site say that over 50% of the straight race winners have come from the two highest draws and reckon there is a massive high draw bias. Only fun bets.

Libertus 4:30 - handicap debut, wunderkind up, drawn high, 3/1 atm
Oh Sweet Tabu 2:55 - drawn high, quite promising run in Class2 at York, this one is Class5, 9/2 atm
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ST drifted out to 13/2 so that was no go.
L put in tracker - BdlS picked up three day ban for careless riding, might have been closer but probably still 2nd.
 
Rocco Ray's first start in the Land Rover Bumper at Punchestown was interesting. 5/1 in the last at Ballinrobe on Tuesday.
 
barjon said:
Nothing from tracker and otherwise I seem fixated on debut handicaps and lower class atm. Two possibles at Lingfield where ATR reckon there’s no draw bias , but the DrawBias site say that over 50% of the straight race winners have come from the two highest draws and reckon there is a massive high draw bias. Only fun bets.

Libertus 4:30 - handicap debut, wunderkind up, drawn high, 3/1 atm
Oh Sweet Tabu 2:55 - drawn high, quite promising run in Class2 at York, this one is Class5, 9/2 atm
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No surprise, BJ - both races won where the pace was. :)
 
Euronymous said:
Doncaster 6.35 - I mentioned Definitive Force in the horses noted in running thread and he's worth backing at 11/4 back at Doncaster over a furlong further than his win at the track a few weeks ago. He lost ground at the start that day but won going away and is only up 4lbs.
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I'm giving this fella another chance today in the 4.40 at Newbury. They crawled over 7f in his last race and a return today back to 6f should suit.
 
Tipperary 7.45
Ney 22/1

Wouldn't be strong on this at all but just the price makes it worth a token bet.
 
There seems to be interesting betting activity in the maidens at Newbury.

I have watched Isaac Shelby's (1:35) price collapse since last night and continuing to do so.

I can't really recommend the horse as its only having its first start but it looks like he has been heavily punted.

Similar comments could apply to Prairie Chief in the 2:10.

I'm pleased I took 12/1 about Conservative in one of the later races the 4.10 if memory serves as he is shortening all the time.
 
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Slim said:
Tipperary 7.45
Ney 22/1

Wouldn't be strong on this at all but just the price makes it worth a token bet.
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He's really interesting, but I'd say he'll be a tracker horse Slim, and the time to get him will be second or third up. You'll know because the money will come.

I've had a small ew play though, because I'd kick myself if it was this time and you'd put him up.
 
Marb said:
There seems to be interesting betting activity in the maidens at Newbury.

I have watched Isaac Shelby's (1:35) price collapse since last night and continuing to do so.

I can't really recommend the horse as its only having its first start but it looks like he has been heavily punted.

Similar comments could apply to Prairie Chief in the 2:10.

I'm pleased I took 12/1 about Conservative in one of the later races the 4.10 if memory serves as he is shortening all the time.
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The market was proved right about Isaac Shelby. :)
 
Nicky Henderson must be pretty confident to allow Captain Morgs to run in a race where he's giving away large lumps of weight all round.

Wouldn't be having a lot on but having a bet anyway
 
Blimey! Just had a 28/1 winner - that’s not my style at all (and it drifted alarmingly, too)
 
barjon said:
Blimey! Just had a 28/1 winner - that’s not my style at all (and it drifted alarmingly, too)
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Well done, Barjon. Dropping from a Group 2 ridden by SDS to a Kempton Class 4. Maybe they knew they had a tool. Easy to see afterwards, sadly I wouldn't have spotted it before.
 
Friday, Epsom 2.35 - Corazon Espinado 12/1, 6 places - only a pound higher than when a wide-margin winner of this race last year, which he did from stall 10 (of ten) so I’m not as concerned as I maybe should be by his widest draw here. I imagine the plan will be to get prominent early and try to get a breather before piling it on again from three out. I’ve taken 12/1 to 6 places with Sky Bet. I reckon the dangers are Excel Power, Totally Charming and Arthur’s Realm but I’ll decide on back-up bets on Friday morning.
 
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