What are you backing Today?

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8:50 Shabra Emperor 5pts e/way - his last run over this c/d in october is the best form on view imo - whether he can repeat that is another question but at 30.0 win and 6.8 place - price looks too big
 
Hoarding 2.55L, looks likely to benefit from the drop in trip, and Hill's 5/1 is just too big.
 
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Uttoxeter 2:05 - Struanmore 12/1 & Dresden 25/1 (much bigger on betfair) 5pts e/way each - 2pts r/f/c - I have found form lines through - Coverholder, Tanerko Emery,Drussell, Mirrific, Catawollow, Flaming Charmer, Mutanaker, Strathcal & Teenage Dream that make these two outsiders the horses to beat in this race - the only negative may be the ground but I have no reason to suspect they wont handle it
 
Probable favourite and no great price, but Big Water will be hard to beat in the first at Carlisle (2:30). Distance is probably a bare minimum for him, but heavy ground and a very tough track should counteract this?
 
Think that Marmot Bay looks a value EW bet at 12/1 in the 1st at Lingfield, probably try to make all from the inside stall, young lady taking off 5lbs from 55 seems to read well in comparison to form with Windpower who ran well in 2 class 5 h'caps recently from 71, Marmot Bay probably 10lbs less than Windpower imo.
 
Andrew Mount is a good judge:

@TrendHorses: Have bet Danziger 3.15 Lingfield. Record in fields of seven or less reads: 2111 (3-4), sole defeat by neck on 2yo debut. 2-2 at the track.
 
SlimChance said:
Andrew Mount is a good judge:

@TrendHorses: Have bet Danziger 3.15 Lingfield. Record in fields of seven or less reads: 2111 (3-4), sole defeat by neck on 2yo debut. 2-2 at the track.
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I was looking at that this morning, but got put off by his form figures at anything over 5f

8,3,7,9,11,2
 
Missunited in the Novice Mares Hurdle at Limerick. Easier opposition today for a horse with decent form in both codes. Had a break, then a run, hopefully should be straight for this. Up against a Mullins/Walsh hot pot in Twigline, but she still needs to put her promise into the form book and I'm not sure a step back down to 2m is what is needed.
 
10pts win each
Carlisle
2:30 Big Water win - The Bold Lord(place)
3:00 Upsilon Bleu
3:30 Chestertern
4:00 Mister Philson
4:30 Upswing
5:00 Special Portrait
 
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Simpson Jersey said:
Think that Marmot Bay looks a value EW bet at 12/1 in the 1st at Lingfield, probably try to make all from the inside stall, young lady taking off 5lbs from 55 seems to read well in comparison to form with Windpower who ran well in 2 class 5 h'caps recently from 71, Marmot Bay probably 10lbs less than Windpower imo.
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Happy enough with the place! 20/1 a lot bigger than i expected.:)
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Think that Marmot Bay looks a value EW bet at 12/1 in the 1st at Lingfield, probably try to make all from the inside stall, young lady taking off 5lbs from 55 seems to read well in comparison to form with Windpower who ran well in 2 class 5 h'caps recently from 71, Marmot Bay probably 10lbs less than Windpower imo.
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Nice place - big price - cheers :D
 
Happy enough with the place! 20/1 a lot bigger than i expected
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All the numpties backing the Bell horse made the price. Hell knows why when it's got a 6f entry.

Well done SJ.
 
I'm backing the other Evans runner @ 8.4 and trade down from 3.6.

Money for the other stable runner and the Bailey horse but MJ is 15lb better off from last time they met.
 
Mother Jones went out even further pre race to 10.5.

Managed to turn a profit on the loser, finishing 2nd but trading low.

1.30 £52 £23
1.31 £8 £372
1.32 £26
1.33 £951
 
My picks a n/r in the 3:30 so I'll take a chance with Ferdy Murphy's Chavoy 5pts win @28.0 and look to trade @ 5.0 - wasn't btn far in a listed chase in France and thought good enough to contest the group 1 Grand Steeple Chase de Paris so there must be some ability there - price looks too big considering.
 
betsmate said:
Missunited in the Novice Mares Hurdle at Limerick. Easier opposition today for a horse with decent form in both codes. Had a break, then a run, hopefully should be straight for this. Up against a Mullins/Walsh hot pot in Twigline, but she still needs to put her promise into the form book and I'm not sure a step back down to 2m is what is needed.
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:D:D
 
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