What are you backing Today?
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swedish chef
At the Start
£13 matched at 1,000.0
EC1
On a break
good work..try and keep up with you here
Vamizi gets my money today in the 4.00..is back on a winning mark and loves it here
7.2 taken
Vamizi gets my money today in the 4.00..is back on a winning mark and loves it here
7.2 taken
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swedish chef
At the Start
4:05 Darwins Theory 3pts e/way - taking a chance on this horse who hasn't run for 5 months but decent form on track and going twice and possibly on a good mark
swedish chef
At the Start
4:10 Billy Blade 10pts win - I see a bit of value in his price on old form.
Part time punter
At the Start
A few that take my fancy today:
Powerful Pierre, I've backed this the last five times it has run and I'm hoping today is pay back as I keep increasing my stake every time. It keeps finishing races like a train but a combination of bad starts and bad draws means it has got too much to do. Hoping today will be the day but it looks like everyone else des as well with price shortening.
St Ignatius - has slipped to 63, last win was at 12f off 73. Last wins at Southwell were around this time last year off low 50's and 55. Nicky Mackay up for the first time and I think it must have been doing good work at home given how it has been backed in the last two times and Adam Kirby up top.
Kijivu - interesting one as I think only won over hurdles, was an eyecathcer with 7lb claimer on two runs ago over 2m as kept on and made up about 5 lengths in the straight despite the jockey not trying one bit. Next time out dropped to 1.5 miles and given an interesting ride by Kingscote as he got to the front quickly and stayed there, dying a death in the home straight. Interesting that Luke Morris up today back up to two miles and worth a small each way stake.
5pts win Powerful Pierre
3pts each way St Ignatius
1pt each way Kijivu
1pt each way trixie.
Powerful Pierre, I've backed this the last five times it has run and I'm hoping today is pay back as I keep increasing my stake every time. It keeps finishing races like a train but a combination of bad starts and bad draws means it has got too much to do. Hoping today will be the day but it looks like everyone else des as well with price shortening.
St Ignatius - has slipped to 63, last win was at 12f off 73. Last wins at Southwell were around this time last year off low 50's and 55. Nicky Mackay up for the first time and I think it must have been doing good work at home given how it has been backed in the last two times and Adam Kirby up top.
Kijivu - interesting one as I think only won over hurdles, was an eyecathcer with 7lb claimer on two runs ago over 2m as kept on and made up about 5 lengths in the straight despite the jockey not trying one bit. Next time out dropped to 1.5 miles and given an interesting ride by Kingscote as he got to the front quickly and stayed there, dying a death in the home straight. Interesting that Luke Morris up today back up to two miles and worth a small each way stake.
5pts win Powerful Pierre
3pts each way St Ignatius
1pt each way Kijivu
1pt each way trixie.
Part time punter
At the Start
Scratch that St Ignatius is a non runner
Lay and Place Lay of Lauberhorn in the 2.00 Exeter...I can make a case for at least three to beat it...namely Descaro, Next to Nowhere and Golden Acorn. Can also see My Viking Bay running well...very confident on the lay and quietly confident on the place lay.
dvds2000
Gone But Not Forgotten
I agree with this, had a place bet on Golden Acorn @ 3.2and will be trying to place lay Lauberhornat some point during the race as I think it will be shorted in running (currently 1.23)
dvds2000
Gone But Not Forgotten
Well no idea if we got the place there, slightly close for 3rd!
I laid it in running at 1.48 so doesn't really matter
Didn't lay the favourite as it never really went short enough
I laid it in running at 1.48 so doesn't really matter
Didn't lay the favourite as it never really went short enough
Backed these last night, so mixed resuts with the prices
Southwell 2.20 Scepticism win @ 7/1 BOG
Ivy Port 2 pts win @ 9/2 BOG
Both horses have very little to offer formwise, but both sires offspring handle the surface and the trainers do tend to place them accordingly.
The trainer of Ivy Port has Dewala who is a pure Southwell horse and Demora, who managed a 2nd @ 28/1 on her only run at the track. Ivy Port possibly may need more time.
However, she may have been lined up for a touch here , with three poor runs at Wolver to get her mark, the final one showing a hint of form and the fact her half sister ran in this race last year finishing 2nd.. Stall 1 is a worry if she doesn't break well.
Ryan Tate has average stats at the track but does seem to be improving this year on winning rides.
Scepticism is another poor looking animal having finished last on both starts this year, but it would be no great shock to see him improve for the fibresand and his best run came in a decent maiden with cut in the ground.
If he fails in the next couple of runs off his current mark, he looks destined to be off loaded. It's interesting the owners stats for the track are: 35/96 = 36% +£14.57.
Murphy is 3/18= 17% for the trainer.
It's worth considering todays fav, Luv U Whatever won here after being beaten 21 lths on it's previous race.
He may well win again off 5lb higher, but at 13/8, i can pass him over.
Napinda is another strong performer here, but is 6lb higher for winning a decent 3 runner event on slower ground, so may need a strongly run race to get into it.
Loki's Strike ran badly last time out when backed into 7/4f, recent runs come with comments " dwelt" and sire is pretty poor on this surface.
Caramel Sundae has possibilities having been dropped 8lb in one hit, best run last year was on slow ground and decent jockey in the saddle.
Lady Araffa has to be over looked with the jockey having only one ride in total.
In the 3.20 I'm laying Hannah's Turn around 1.77.
I have only got four horses running for me, who all need to improve to get past the fav who is unbeaten in two starts on f/s.
It's difficult to assess Hanah's Turn last week, as the 2nd has won well today, but he lost around 10 iths at the start that day.
It was slow time, beat little except the unlucky 2nd has a 6lb penalty and a step up in grade.
Southwell 2.20 Scepticism win @ 7/1 BOG
Ivy Port 2 pts win @ 9/2 BOG
Both horses have very little to offer formwise, but both sires offspring handle the surface and the trainers do tend to place them accordingly.
The trainer of Ivy Port has Dewala who is a pure Southwell horse and Demora, who managed a 2nd @ 28/1 on her only run at the track. Ivy Port possibly may need more time.
However, she may have been lined up for a touch here , with three poor runs at Wolver to get her mark, the final one showing a hint of form and the fact her half sister ran in this race last year finishing 2nd.. Stall 1 is a worry if she doesn't break well.
Ryan Tate has average stats at the track but does seem to be improving this year on winning rides.
Scepticism is another poor looking animal having finished last on both starts this year, but it would be no great shock to see him improve for the fibresand and his best run came in a decent maiden with cut in the ground.
If he fails in the next couple of runs off his current mark, he looks destined to be off loaded. It's interesting the owners stats for the track are: 35/96 = 36% +£14.57.
Murphy is 3/18= 17% for the trainer.
It's worth considering todays fav, Luv U Whatever won here after being beaten 21 lths on it's previous race.
He may well win again off 5lb higher, but at 13/8, i can pass him over.
Napinda is another strong performer here, but is 6lb higher for winning a decent 3 runner event on slower ground, so may need a strongly run race to get into it.
Loki's Strike ran badly last time out when backed into 7/4f, recent runs come with comments " dwelt" and sire is pretty poor on this surface.
Caramel Sundae has possibilities having been dropped 8lb in one hit, best run last year was on slow ground and decent jockey in the saddle.
Lady Araffa has to be over looked with the jockey having only one ride in total.
In the 3.20 I'm laying Hannah's Turn around 1.77.
I have only got four horses running for me, who all need to improve to get past the fav who is unbeaten in two starts on f/s.
It's difficult to assess Hanah's Turn last week, as the 2nd has won well today, but he lost around 10 iths at the start that day.
It was slow time, beat little except the unlucky 2nd has a 6lb penalty and a step up in grade.
I took offence when it went to 18.0 before the off and backed it again to trade down in running. I then chickened out and traded it all back at 11.5, for it to hit a low of 2.02 in running.
Ran the last 1f on the far rail but I'm not sure it made much difference.
Scepticism went off 5/2, but probably needs further or Fanning riding.
Part time punter
At the Start
Gutted with both my ones efforts today. Poerful Pierre again failed to get in the race, I think I'm just going to have to write it off and stop backing it.
Kijivu - I still don't know how that one didn't even place. Came off the top bend in front and Luke Morris hadn't even started pushing it. Looked like it was running in quick sand last furlong and a half. Thought there was a chance of a win coming off that bend. Gutted.
Kijivu - I still don't know how that one didn't even place. Came off the top bend in front and Luke Morris hadn't even started pushing it. Looked like it was running in quick sand last furlong and a half. Thought there was a chance of a win coming off that bend. Gutted.
Simpson Jersey
At the Start
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Should have traded out Part timer, hit 2.6 IR, quite fancied him myself, gave it a mention on betfair forum.
Layday, payday....lucky to get the place lay up too!
Rockawango (15:45 Haydock) did not run at all badly in the Imperial Cup 11-days ago to finish 6th, and this brush hurdle is considerably easier. As long as he is over this recent exertion, he is well capable of winning. Distance and ground conditions OK. Will have a wee bet on this one!
Part time punter
At the Start
I like afkar today at each way value. Won on second run back from long break last year and looks set up to do again.
Also looking at a couple of horses who have been dropping in the weights, no signs of revival yet from them though so just 1 pt each way.
Perlachy, Harris and morris on form these last few weeks, this horse was heavily backed three runs ago but didn't get in the race, two more lacklustre runs but morris back up today.
Amenable is another that is right down in the weights, going to come good at some point, speculative punt that it could be today.
Also looking at a couple of horses who have been dropping in the weights, no signs of revival yet from them though so just 1 pt each way.
Perlachy, Harris and morris on form these last few weeks, this horse was heavily backed three runs ago but didn't get in the race, two more lacklustre runs but morris back up today.
Amenable is another that is right down in the weights, going to come good at some point, speculative punt that it could be today.
swedish chef
At the Start
Haydock - Trevor Hemming's runners - trainer often targets these Haydock meetings with his horses - I'm pretty sure he has a decent strike rate in fixed brush hurdle races as well.
2:10 Highrate 12/1 -10pts win - trainer Sue Smith 16% strike rate in chases at the track - probably higher for owner?
4:50 Moss Cloud 8/1 - 10pts win - Mighty Mobb 25/1 - 4pts e/way - 1pt r/f/c - trainers D McCain jnr (29%) & Phillip Hobbs (20%) strike rate in hurdles at the track - again I would guess it's higher for owner especially in the case of McCain as Hobbs a relatively new trainer for owner.
2:10 Highrate 12/1 -10pts win - trainer Sue Smith 16% strike rate in chases at the track - probably higher for owner?
4:50 Moss Cloud 8/1 - 10pts win - Mighty Mobb 25/1 - 4pts e/way - 1pt r/f/c - trainers D McCain jnr (29%) & Phillip Hobbs (20%) strike rate in hurdles at the track - again I would guess it's higher for owner especially in the case of McCain as Hobbs a relatively new trainer for owner.
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EC1
On a break
one interest tonight - a lay of Taglietelle 7.15 race...at 1.82
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