What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Irish Stamp said:
Plumpton Multiple for today with the price I made these in brackets.



16:30 Aimigayle @ 10/1 (7/1). The early 16/1 has disappeared and the NR would give a 10p rule 4 to all the early bets. Suzy Smith’s mare is plummeting down the weights thanks largely to a prolonged spell on the sideline. She was a very solid 130+ horse at her best but is now ten years old and was pulled up on her return from a fifteen month lay-off at Southwell last month. She placed off a seven pound higher mark on her final outing before the lay-off when runner-up to Wild Rhubarb at Uttoxeter over 3 miles in May 2012 and prior to that had finished a very good fourth to Always Waining over the big fences at Aintree in the Topham. She won over a furlong shorter than this off a six pound higher mark in a very competitive Kempton race back in 2008 so should stay this extra furlong on an easier track and the most interesting thing for me is that she pulled up on her return from a prolonged lay off (18 months) at Sandown in February 2011 and came out the following month and finished second at the Cheltenham Festival. Colin Bolger again takes the ride and she looks likely to go well here.
Click to expand...


Top top Tipping Irish Stamp:)
 
Well done to everyone for the winners it's been a while since I've read through this thread but am amazed by how many different posters have picked winners. Too many to congratulate by name as there's the danger I'll miss one out. Excellent!!
 
Very good shout with Aimigayle, Irish Stamp.

Wait No More is best when allowed to dominate from the front...so I guess you knew you'd done your money when Dougie Costello settled him at the back of the field.
 
COLONEL MAK 4.10 HAMILTON

Colonel Mak ran no sort of race in Silver Cup on Saturday, finishing last of those drawn in single figures. That was very disappointing so it is interesting to see he has stayed in Scotland to take up this engagement. He was previously second to Secret Look at Newmarket beaten 0.5ls giving the 3yo 9lbs, he is 7lbs better off today. The fourth and the sixth have subsequently won. Before that Colonel Mak won a 0-90 at Pontefract, making all. He is 3-5 at Hamilton.

Hopes N Dreams is 5-6 at Hamilton but she has never placed in a race where the highest rated horse has had an official rating of 90 or more, 0-6. She has never placed in a race with average OR of 84 or higher, 0-4, and she is 8lbs higher than her win last time and 14lbs higher than the start of the season.

Secret Look shouldn’t beat Colonel Mak on these terms and all of his wins have come after a break of a month or more. He is 0-6 when returning sooner.

El Manati has shown nothing in her two runs this season and she may well have not trained on. Her third to Bungle Inthejungle and Garswood in the Cornwallis last year is the best form on offer but she hasn’t placed in two runs on good to soft and soft. James Tate is 4-13 with horses wearing first time cheekpieces.

Baileys Jubilee was third in the Cheveley Park last season but it appears, in hindsight, to have been poor renewal with just 3 winners coming out of the race from 56 races. She has run four times season and unplaced in them all and she was last of four in a similar race to this last time. She is 0-5 over 6f and was unplaced on her only run on good to soft.

Bix has to find 40lbs improvement to get anywhere near this.

Conclusion: The two front runners, Hopes N Dreams and Colonel Mak should dominate this. Hopes N Dreams has to improve again to win. Colonel Mak has to give weight away. He is a three time winner here and is 4-7 in fields of 7 or less runners. In fields of 7 or less runners over this course and distance, he is 3-3. He could make all or even just stalk Hopes N Dreams. Either way, he looks the one to beat.


JUVENAL 4.30 LEICESTER

Juvenal represents a yard that is 4-5 in this race and three of those winners were the same as Juvenal, winless in the current season. He is the best horse in the race and the race should be run to suit. He run as well as could be expected over 7f last time and the step up to 10f will suit. He has dropped 9lbs in the handicap and this is his easiest assignment to date.

Mandy The Nag looks the most likely danger but she is likely to get taken on for the lead here. She has yet to place in 6 races beyond a mile and is unplaced twice from two runs on good or softer. She is 0-3 going right handed. She is by Proud Citizen, his progeny 1-30 over 10f, she may not stay.

Voice From Above is rated 12lbs inferior to Juvenal but just receives 4lbs. She is 0-8 over 9f-10f though she has a 1l second over this course and distance in a class 6 handicap off 60.

Bling King has only won on good to firm and over 6f. He is 0-10 over distances 7f-10f. Rated in the 90s as a juvenile, he had the whole of 2012 in France without much success. He is dropping in the weights and Jordan Nason’s claim gives him a chance though Geoff Harker is 1-41 since July.

Thereabouts has had a summer break and though 0-15 overall, all his best form has come on the sand. Yet to place on turf, he has never placed when returning after a break of two weeks or more. He is 9lbs worse off with Juvenal than he would be in a handicap.

Stag Hill is 8lbs worse off with Juvenal and he is 2-32 overall. He doesn’t usually run on stiff tracks and in his two outings on them he has been unplaced. He is 0-5 on undulating tracks. Joey Haynes is 2-4 on the gelding.

Suspension is rated 51 and is going to have to improve somewhat to take this. She is yet to win in ten outings and both her placed runs have come on left handed tracks. 0-5 going right handed. Morrison is 4-7 in claimers at Leicester.

Inigo Montoya’s nearest encounter with winning was an 11l 7th of 8th. This is just his fifth race but he looks very ordinary. McCabe is 1-46 stretching back to August and is on a losing run of 31.

Thecornishwren is yet to place in eight outings. Her best form is when beaten 14ls on her racecourse debut a year ago.

Conclusion: Richard Hannon has farmed this race over the years and Juvenal looks to have a lot in his favour today. Mandy The Nag and the free running Suspension should set the pace and with Inigo Montoya and Thereabouts liking to race prominently, Juvenal should have something to aim at. If he repeats his fifth to Ascription off 84 in July he will win this doing handstands. Even if he doesn’t, he should still take this comfortably.
 
Excellent write up Rob, i've looked at that Hamilton race till i'm blue in the face, looking at your write up makes it look very simple, not sure quite how soft the going is there at the moment but if it is not too slow i wouldn't be at all suprised to see Baileys Jubillee bounce back to form, shouldn't be getting weight from this lot imo.
 
Fitz Flyer 4.00 Leicester
Like the look of this one today, ran a cracking race lto when beaten 3/4 length by the well h'capped Dungannon with course specialist Gabbiano a further 3/4 length behind.
Strictly a 5fs horse, won cosily at Ayr off 83. Dandy has put his young apprentice J Nason on board today taking 7lbs off his back and 88 mark. Bearing in mind this time last year only just btn by Kingsgate Choice giving it 2lbs from 90, todays mark looks very reasonable, looks a solid EW bet to me.
 
Tony Dinozzo, who you may remember was put up by Placebacker on here a couple of weeks ago but finished second after being matched at 1.02 in running, bids for compensation off a 1lb lower mark in the last at Newton Abbot tomorrow.

The drop back in trip looks the right move and the 9-2 available with Bet365 at the moment is excellent value.
 
Rusty Nail (16:50) is a lot better than he's shown so far - makes his handicap debut over fences at Newton Abbott.

Personally think he needs 3m 2f+ as he certainly isn't the quickest but sure he'll win a race in the coming months.

Martin
 
Hope I`m not going to the well once too often but another from my local stable is strongly fancied today!

Rockie Road was unlucky not to win at Hamilton on Sunday in what seems a stronger race than today`s 4-35 at Carlisle. He seems to have come out of that race well and he`s out again before he`s reassessed. Given reasonable luck in running he should win. Fill ya boots:).

The stable also run Sunni Dancer in the 4-05. Not suggesting a bet but she`s a lot better than her 33/1 morning price would indicate. And Lard will be pleased to know the stable hopes to have plenty of runners at Chester on Saturday:).
 
Thanks Dan.:)


EXCELETTE 3.40 BEVERLEY

Excelette hasn’t won for over a year but she has a huge chance in this this afternoon. She was fourth to Justineo in the Scarborough Stakes last time which looks decent form in the context of this race considering the winner had previously finished third in a Group 2. She was a lot closer to the second Masamah than she was here in the Bullet but she was poorly drawn in 12. Four of the last five to finish were drawn 12-13-14-15 of the fifteen runners. It is her form before that that looks strong. Beaten a neck, short head in the City Wall Stakes at York, the winner has gone on to win the Group 1 Nunthorpe and the second the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes. She has conditions to suit and all her best form has come in races with 10 or less runners, 3 wins and 4 places. She is very well in here.

Valbchek was fourth behind Tropics and Nocturn last time in what looks like a weak listed race. His second to Taayel doesn’t look good enough either. He would need to produce a personal best here in what is probably a listed race disguised as a conditions race. Noseda is 0-16 in the last fortnight.

Rocky Ground was made favourite to beat Noble Storm last time and only kept on in a race run to suit. He is another who will have to improve to figure. He is well drawn in 1 but he has speedsters drawn in 2, 3 and 5 and he will do well to get on the front end. Varian is in form and 1-10 here.

Doc Hay was a tad unlucky in the Portland and on a strict interpretation of the form he should finish ahead of Excelette after their meeting in the Bullet. Doc Hay was better drawn than Excelette that day. He has never placed in eight races on good to firm or quicker and is 0-3 at Beverley. It is possible he is being prepped for the Rous Stakes, a race he won last year.

Tiddliwinks hasn’t won since May 2012 but has been running in some tough races. On a line through Jwala he will do well to beat Excelette but this is his easiest task for some time. He is better over 6f than 5f, 5 wins to one, but he will be rattling home here and he could run well.

Borderlescott had the prime draw in the Bullet and I can’t see him beating Excelette today from the outside berth. He was behind her at Doncaster and meets her on the same terms.

Addictive Dream is 11lbs worse off with Excelette than in a handicap. He was a couple of lengths ahead of Doc Hay in the Portland getting 10lbs. Jordan Nason takes a very handy 7lbs off but it is over 2 years since he won and he is 0-9 on stiff tracks.

Monsieur Joe was last of five in the Leicester race Rocky Ground was second. He should come on for the debut run of the season but it is 3 years since he tasted success.

Hoyam was 2.75ls behind Excelette in the Scarborough and meets her on the same terms. She slept in the stalls, something she has a habit of doing. She is 3lbs worse off with Doc Hay for finishing a head in front of him in the Kings Stand and the filly is 0-4 on good to firm or quicker.

Swendab will ensure there is a decent pace here but he has a lot find even counting in Oisin Murphy’s claim.

Conclusion: This is quite a nice heat for the grade. Brian Smart won this race with Tangerine Trees three years ago and looks to have found they key to this race in Excelette. With two slow starters inside of her she should get onto Swendabs tail and track him till he runs out of gas. She has 16lbs less to carry than in the Scarborough last time and she may well not be for catching once given her head. Tiddliwinks should finish well to pick up some place money.
 
Lingfield 5.30 DALGIG 10/1 5pts e/way
B c New Approach - Bright Halo.

Ability all four starts, three this season but latest back in May when head second to Hawk High in 12 furlong maiden at Catterick. Dropped 1lb to 80.

trainer says,

"Might well go to Pontefract on September 19 over ten furlongs and I think that's his trip. Has a few issues but he'll grow out of them and could be the sort to develop into a heritage handicapper next year. Should win his maiden."
 
Glad you've studied this race rob as i've had a good look as well.
I do agree that Excelette looks to hold a very good chance at the weights but the horse i think will go really well and looks to be coming back to form is Addictive Dream, had 6 months off after an unproductive trip to Meydan last winter(had won 2 races there the previous year), and has steadily been running better this summer. Better going from the front and has won 2 races over 6fs and once at 5fs so this stiff 5fs should suit imo and on his only try at this C/D was beaten just 3/4 length by Cheviot in a class 3 conditions race with Doc Hay meets on identical terms in 3rd 3/4 lgth away. Well drawn and with J Nason taking 7lbs off think will lead with Swendab before going ahead and hopefully holding on from the finishers, i'll be trying to lay off 1f or so out. Good luck.
 
LING 2:00 BASIL BERRY 9/2
Clocked OK LTO. Question about the drop in trip, but breeding suggests that may not be a problem. A late foal who is now improving on polytrack. If it can run almost as well over this shorter trip, then that should be enough.

Looks overpriced at 9/2, but it's far from a good thing.
 
Had put a big write up for the amateur riders race 5.45 Beverley but unfortunately been timed out and can't type out again but conclusion was for an EW bet on Rub of the relic, saver on Sinatramania.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Glad you've studied this race rob as i've had a good look as well.
I do agree that Excelette looks to hold a very good chance at the weights but the horse i think will go really well and looks to be coming back to form is Addictive Dream, had 6 months off after an unproductive trip to Meydan last winter(had won 2 races there the previous year), and has steadily been running better this summer. Better going from the front and has won 2 races over 6fs and once at 5fs so this stiff 5fs should suit imo and on his only try at this C/D was beaten just 3/4 length by Cheviot in a class 3 conditions race with Doc Hay meets on identical terms in 3rd 3/4 lgth away. Well drawn and with J Nason taking 7lbs off think will lead with Swendab before going ahead and hopefully holding on from the finishers, i'll be trying to lay off 1f or so out. Good luck.
Click to expand...
Dam, just about to say we got that race right between us and that horse came from out of the clouds to do us on the line, done at 1.01!:(
 
Didn't win but hope some at least got the 14's about Rusty Nail - will be sure to win when upped in trip but showed too much for my liking today :(
 
Unex Michelangelo (4.25, Redcar) was 4th behind a horse touted for the 2000 Guineas in Top Offer once, he then won a class 4 maiden next time for his former trainer John Gosden. He has gone down the weights about two stone since, but is appealing now as he has hit some good form for Mick Easterby. :)
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top