What are you backing Today?

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Absolutely superb SJ


TWILL STAND TO US 5.35 PERTH

Twill Stand To Us was made joint favourite and beaten 19ls last time after trying to make all over 16f. The first two home have subsequently franked the form, the winner placing off 4lbs higher and the second winning a 0-120 off the same mark. He was previously third when 2nd fav to Strobe,11lbs better off today, again racing prominently. He was second to 130 rated Bygones Of Brid over 16f at Hexham before that. Once again he raced prominently. However, he won an Intermediate at Witton Castle in May over 24f. He was held up that day and won doing handstands. He subsequently left Cherry Coward’s for Brian Ellison. He is unexposed and races against some very exposed types who are not that well handicapped. Ellison is 2-4 in handicap chases and the ground will suit.

Eyre Apparent is still 5lbs higher than his win in a novice handicap. He has never placed in 11 races when returning to the track after a break of 30 days or more and is 0-5off marks above 11 in both NH disciplines.

Endeavour is fully exposed. He is 0-8 at Perth and 9lbs higher than his last win. He is 1-15 on a flat track. He has never placed when carrying more than 11-0 in a handicap.

Ring Bo Ree resumes his chasing career off 9lbs higher than his last win. Off the course for 575 days he is sure to need this. He is 0-9 when returning after a break of a month or more.

Good Egg is another who is sure to need the run. He is 0-10 when returning after a break of a month or more. He makes his UK debut for Lorna Fowler.

Etxalar goes well fresh, 2-5, but it is four years since he won over this distance and has only run over 20f twice in the last two years. His three wins have come on stiff tracks.

Strobe won a couple of races of this course and distance in July but he is feasibly handicapped off 102. He is 0-19 when returning after a break of a month or more.

The Paddy Premium has won four of his forty two races and each of those wins were two years apart. He is 0-9 over 20f-20.5f and hasn’t won over further.

Woody Waller has his second race for Sophie Leech after moving from John Wade. One win in a three runner novice event in 2011 is his sole steeplechase success. He has never placed in eight races beyond 17f.

Western Island is 1-31 and that win came just over a year ago in chase off 87. He resumes off 97 today and is 0-9 off marks in between.

Conclusion: Plenty of exposed runners all having negatives surrounding them today. It is difficult to work out the tactics they will employ with Twill Stand To Us but one thing is for certain it will be disappointing if he can’t see this lot off.
 
Good Luck

4.30 Perth-Frontier Vic @ 7-2 [Paddy Power] BOG

Trainer got his horses in rude health again
 
Safety Check 2.35 won a truly run Newmarket nursery cosily, giving a stone to a horse currently rated 85, with the rest beaten pointless.
Ran well subsequently at Kempton, but s sprint finish round a sharp track would never be his forte. This stiffer 1m, with plenty of pace in the race, should bring enough improvement to see him home against these.
 
Not putting this on the will win thread but intrigued by the entry of Good Egg in the 5.35 at Perth. This horse has never run between May and November and the stable has only ever had two runners at Perth which finished first and third its odds have just started to move from 10's to 8's.
 
reet hard said:
Safety Check 2.35 won a truly run Newmarket nursery cosily, giving a stone to a horse currently rated 85, with the rest beaten pointless.
Ran well subsequently at Kempton, but s sprint finish round a sharp track would never be his forte. This stiffer 1m, with plenty of pace in the race, should bring enough improvement to see him home against these.
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great call Reet :cool:
 
Nice one, Reet, had a couple quid on that one.
baldeagle said:
Phiz 3.10 Newmarket 2nd G2 to the Lark over 1mile 6 down in trip and grade today seemed not to stay lto 3/1 PP
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GL Baldeagle, thought this was a tough race for a definate winner, ended up doing the rank outsider Olivia's Dream e/w...she probably won't be able to lead today with Johnstons horse blazing a trail, might sneak a place. Anyway GL.
 
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EC1 said:
to be fair i'm reaping what i've sowed this year..i haven't had the time I usually have to spend...family commitments are more important at the moment...i've a few i'm waiting for..but then pick other races in between and don't put enough work in on them

Good luck with Dank anyway.

I will be having one bet tomorrow from a race i've been following and patiently waiting for the first 3 to come out again....even Gigilo hasn't marked this race up:)..shwaiman in the 4.45.

comes out of one of the best ..if not the best AW maidens run this year on the clock...I think the winner is a 100 horse at least....three have run from this race..the 4th has won...which i somehow f00kin overlooked..missed a 10/1 winner..idiot...i backed Phiz..who won..and Midaz who didn't seem to stay..or there was something wrong with...stopped as if shot after travelling well

If shwaiman don't win i'll be a bit gutted and draw stumps for a bit as if this race isn't one to follow then i don't know what is
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Astonishing couldn't win when well in in handicaps..sluiced in today..i should have kept the faith

one hell of a maiden race that one
 
a speculative win+place tonight in the nursery 6.45 race.

TJ Pitt does well in nurseries here at this time of year and has a large priced one in Valued Opinion...40.0+ & 7.8 ish at the moment

worth a go
 
I reckon Duke Of Destiny will win the 5:20 at Haydock tomorrow. Impressive winner last time and also markedly improved for the application of cheekpieces. Trainer right to step him up in class after that easy win. The dangers are Bold Duke and Mick Channons The Scuttler, but they both won on soft or heavy ground last time. Unless the going changes by post time (which is possible), Duke Of Destiny will win the race.
I've not seen any prices yet but anything over 3/1 in good ground is a gift.
 
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Waahej looks nap material in the last..won't meet much weaker oppo than this..odds on shot imo..had a lump on at 2.72
 
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MONTAIGNE 3.35 HAYDOCK

Montaigne won on his debut at Kempton beating Fig Roll a head. Fig Roll went on to be the fourth in the Queen Mary before winning the Empress at Newmarket and is now rated 97. Third home was Meritocracy who has subsequently won two and is now rated 90. The fourth, fifth and seventh have all won races. Montaigne then went to Ascot and was fourth to Anticipated who went on to be third in the Windsor Castle and then second in the Molecomb and is currently rated 108. Second was Justice Day who has won since and is now rated 103. On a line through Anticipated he has the beating of Zalzilah. Eight of these like to force the pace and that should be perfect for Montaigne. He is in the listed 2yo trophy at Redcar next weekend and he looks very well handicapped here.
 
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