Goodwood 2.00 Harry Hunt @ 12/1 ( No R4)
Four Nations. saver
The deterioration of the early betfair markets has been something of a shock for me recently but even for a Sunday, I've never known it so bad, even if there are going changes on the cards.
Three n/r's already, with two that had strong chances is making this race worth a look, especially few sloggers in the field.
I'm happy to take on Our Folly who finished 2nd in this race last year off a 12 lower mark. That run was behind a decent yardstick but OF did get the run of the race and the combination of price, OR and likely slower early pace, makes it an easy task of over looking him.
Opera Buff is hard to assess, as his last run the field split in two and the chasers never got into the race. Will get the right ground conditions but I've hesitantly ignored off a 9lb higher mark.
Spice Fair suffers as a consequence of his own consistency, having not won for two years, but OR mark never moving. Should be thereabouts, but is developing a pattern of losing ground at the start and may be best on p/t nowadays.
I'd expect Med Sea to being prepped for runs at Southwell.
Guards Chapel is really untried over going/trip.
Ampleforth does have a chance on recent form, but I'm not totally certain these conditions are ideal and Johnson never gave him a chance as a stayer.
Harry Hunt has a break to contend with but his record off a break in the UK is 1,1.
He's had little flat racing, but he looks capable off 80, looking at his a/w form and hurdles mark. His jockey today has also ridden him over the jumps.
Four Nations look a revived performer at Haydock and still looks on a decent mark if returning to performances with Perrett.