EC1
On a break
2.00
Brousse en feux looks nap material in this..? against the rest..none against him
3.75 snaffled
Brousse en feux looks nap material in this..? against the rest..none against him
3.75 snaffled
What are you backing Today?
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M
marbler
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EC1
On a break
M
marbler
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easy tiger, I wasn't referring to you, him, her or anybody else...or their selections.
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EC1
On a break
M
marbler
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Well that vague assumption would be wrong.
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M
marbler
Guest
yeah yeah make the right choices tomorrow hahah
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ETXALAR 12.45 CARLISLE
Bertie Milan was beaten 5ls in a 0-110 last time over 20f here which took his record to 213 round Carlisle. He has 6f extra to cover today and has never raced this far before. His sole win was over 21f which was off a mark 7lbs lower than today. He has to shoulder an extra 15lbs in physical weight. His record in races beyond 24f reads; beaten, 8ls, 6.3ls, 30ls, 78ls, 66ls, 7.5ls.
Etxalar has an excellent record at Carlisle with 2 wins and 2places from 6 visits. That improves to 2121 when racing over 26f. He is 6lbs higher than his win here in March but 5lbs lower than his second to Acrai Rua in a 0-120 in April. Does he retain the ability that he showed when winning here off 121 three years ago, probably not, but he is well handicapped in the scheme of things here.
Bollin Fiona does have conditions to suit but she is yet to win a chase. Her second to Lukey Luke off 95 would give her a squeak but that is all. She has always needed her seasonal debut run, 0-5.
Snuker finished ahead of More Equity when he was last seen. His second to Minstalad has been well franked. The winner has placed second twice off 3lbs and 7lbs higher. The third won next time out and More Equity has won three times, the latest off 16lbs higher plus she has a third to 139 rated Knockara Beau in her locker. Sierra Victor was fifth home and he has won as well. The problem is that was on good to firm and his runs on soft or heavy ground have seen him beat; 86ls, 104ls, 60ls, 93ls, 25ls and a run out. Those were all over hurdles.
One For The Boss was made favourite for a poor chase last time and didn’t jump well. He was backed from 5/1 into favouritism so he must have showed something at home as he hadn’t done so on the racecourse. The closest he has got on this ground is within 15ls of the winner. Dai Burchill is on a losing run of 29 stretching back to July.
Shoal Bay Dreamer won a chase off 73 on soft ground a year ago and that was his only win from 18 attempts. He is 0-8 in class 4 with just one place. He is 3lbs out of the handicap and 3lbs higher than his win so it’s a big ask.
Trouble In Paris was always behind on his chasing debut and is another one who has been beaten potato fields on this ground more than once.
Billsgrey is 0-20 in class 4 and 6lbs out of the handicap.
Camden George is 0-8 at Carlisle and has never won over further than 20f, 0-15.
Conclusion: This will be slow but Etxalar has course, going and distance form and is probably on a decent mark. There are major doubts about all his rivals. Lucinda Russell won this two years ago and had the second last year beaten just a neck. It appears to be Etxalar’s target
Bertie Milan was beaten 5ls in a 0-110 last time over 20f here which took his record to 213 round Carlisle. He has 6f extra to cover today and has never raced this far before. His sole win was over 21f which was off a mark 7lbs lower than today. He has to shoulder an extra 15lbs in physical weight. His record in races beyond 24f reads; beaten, 8ls, 6.3ls, 30ls, 78ls, 66ls, 7.5ls.
Etxalar has an excellent record at Carlisle with 2 wins and 2places from 6 visits. That improves to 2121 when racing over 26f. He is 6lbs higher than his win here in March but 5lbs lower than his second to Acrai Rua in a 0-120 in April. Does he retain the ability that he showed when winning here off 121 three years ago, probably not, but he is well handicapped in the scheme of things here.
Bollin Fiona does have conditions to suit but she is yet to win a chase. Her second to Lukey Luke off 95 would give her a squeak but that is all. She has always needed her seasonal debut run, 0-5.
Snuker finished ahead of More Equity when he was last seen. His second to Minstalad has been well franked. The winner has placed second twice off 3lbs and 7lbs higher. The third won next time out and More Equity has won three times, the latest off 16lbs higher plus she has a third to 139 rated Knockara Beau in her locker. Sierra Victor was fifth home and he has won as well. The problem is that was on good to firm and his runs on soft or heavy ground have seen him beat; 86ls, 104ls, 60ls, 93ls, 25ls and a run out. Those were all over hurdles.
One For The Boss was made favourite for a poor chase last time and didn’t jump well. He was backed from 5/1 into favouritism so he must have showed something at home as he hadn’t done so on the racecourse. The closest he has got on this ground is within 15ls of the winner. Dai Burchill is on a losing run of 29 stretching back to July.
Shoal Bay Dreamer won a chase off 73 on soft ground a year ago and that was his only win from 18 attempts. He is 0-8 in class 4 with just one place. He is 3lbs out of the handicap and 3lbs higher than his win so it’s a big ask.
Trouble In Paris was always behind on his chasing debut and is another one who has been beaten potato fields on this ground more than once.
Billsgrey is 0-20 in class 4 and 6lbs out of the handicap.
Camden George is 0-8 at Carlisle and has never won over further than 20f, 0-15.
Conclusion: This will be slow but Etxalar has course, going and distance form and is probably on a decent mark. There are major doubts about all his rivals. Lucinda Russell won this two years ago and had the second last year beaten just a neck. It appears to be Etxalar’s target
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Great write up as always, thanks Rob. I have taken 3-1.
I like the look of Imperial Vic in the 2.25 today. David Pipe says Buddy Bolero is just there for a school round, and Imperial Vic ran such a good race at Kelso. In receipt of 11lbs I think he should be around even money here.
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I like the look of Imperial Vic in the 2.25 today. David Pipe says Buddy Bolero is just there for a school round, and Imperial Vic ran such a good race at Kelso. In receipt of 11lbs I think he should be around even money here.
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Kempton 3.50 Kiss From A Rose Win @ 7/1
I was hoping for a drift on this with the support for Souville, but there is little support for the remainder at the moment.
Typical backend nursery with plenty in the field still on the upgrade, but the price of KFAR looks fair to me as she did it well on bad ground lto and it's entirely possible she is still well treated off a mark of 65.
Her maiden win was run in a faster time than Lawyer's nursery win that night, albeit he did win with ease and carrying 11lb more, but he has gone in again since and is now rated 81.
Impossible to make a literal calculation, but it's possible that run has been under estimated, with it being such a bad race and no form lines to come out of it.
Probably won't get the easy lead she got last time, but I don't think that will be an issue as long as she doesn't track wide.
I was hoping for a drift on this with the support for Souville, but there is little support for the remainder at the moment.
Typical backend nursery with plenty in the field still on the upgrade, but the price of KFAR looks fair to me as she did it well on bad ground lto and it's entirely possible she is still well treated off a mark of 65.
Her maiden win was run in a faster time than Lawyer's nursery win that night, albeit he did win with ease and carrying 11lb more, but he has gone in again since and is now rated 81.
Impossible to make a literal calculation, but it's possible that run has been under estimated, with it being such a bad race and no form lines to come out of it.
Probably won't get the easy lead she got last time, but I don't think that will be an issue as long as she doesn't track wide.
No choice from me today, Marballs, not with you around!
Agree, great write-up from Rob, also had a bit at 3/1, must have a damn good chance.
Careful Benny; the horse has no experience of heavy ground or a stiff track. The Pipe horse has plenty, and has traveled an awful long way just to school him.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Thanks Reet, haven't gone at it too hard!
What the heck, with conditions so bad at Carlisle today, anything can happen on this ground. So, have had a bit e/w at 40/1 on newcomer Courtown Oscar in the 15:00 race. Only because the progeny of his sire Oscar usually go well in the mud.
Sea Pigeon
At the Start
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- 505
4.50 Kempton
In a race full of yak's and hounds. I think that WALL STREET BOSS is a bet at 3/1. It was 7/4 last night and has been drifting all day which is obviously not a great sign and it may have something to with the sire never having had a winner at Kempton. Having said that he arguably doesn't need to improve to get involved and Fanshawe has a great record at Kempton. The rest look exposed and I think at 3/1 he's a solid bet.
In a race full of yak's and hounds. I think that WALL STREET BOSS is a bet at 3/1. It was 7/4 last night and has been drifting all day which is obviously not a great sign and it may have something to with the sire never having had a winner at Kempton. Having said that he arguably doesn't need to improve to get involved and Fanshawe has a great record at Kempton. The rest look exposed and I think at 3/1 he's a solid bet.
swedish chef
At the Start
I hope your right - by elimination I have it down to 3 with a win bet on Wall Street Boss and combo f/c 3x4x5
Can't back fillies on AW when the clocks go back - Hannon's horse was well btn on both attempts at this track and the outsider doesn't look good enough. Watch them make a fool of me now :lol:
Sea Pigeon
At the Start
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- Oct 28, 2007
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- 505
Thanks. Still looks green, but had nothing to beat.
Absurdistan
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- Oct 7, 2013
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- 337
Gone for Oceans Applause in the last at Kempton. Ran in the Derby so has a bit of class hidden somewhere. Just hope it comes out today.
Wolver 6.50. Silverware win @ 8.6
Ishikawa Saver .
Looked at this race last night, when the overnight market leader was Dark Ruler, who does have the best recent form and his sire does well on p/t, but the fact that he's yet to put a decent run on decent turf going and the mare has yet to get a p/t winner, makes him avoidable.
Lazarus Bell is similar,although he has only had one run on p/t, but can be passed over.
It would be no surprise to see Prompter be supported, now 15lb lower sice moving to Jonjo and running over wrong trip/ ground. Worth watching in the market.
Whilst the Cayterers won't be carrying my money, an 11yo with a poor strike rate, I certainly won't be laying it at big odds. A quick look at his static h/cap mark is testimony to the fact that he does throw in quite a few decent runs. This is a poor C4, so it would not be a great shock.
Destiny Blue is a possible simply on trainer switch, but he bombed lto when backed into favoritism and is another I couldn't touch off a lay off.
Elpeth's Boy is 0/11 in C4, although carrying a low weight, the price is too short for this weak event.
Lilac Tree looks an in running lay at short odds. Likely to lead, but the stable are just to erratic at the moment.
Berlusca is running well but the mark looks stiff.
I was going to overlook Ishikawa on account of the shorter trip. Got a 100% place record around here from 9 attempts over the 9.5, but only attempted the shorter trip twice. However, he is very consistent and his last a/w run run can be ignored. Looks destined to be staying on for 3rd at the death, but it's no forlorn hope he can win over shorter, especially if Lilac Tree forces the early pace.
I was amazed to see Silverware trading at double figures this morning. In decent form and ran when when last seen over C&D and comes here off same h/cap mark.
Ishikawa Saver .
Looked at this race last night, when the overnight market leader was Dark Ruler, who does have the best recent form and his sire does well on p/t, but the fact that he's yet to put a decent run on decent turf going and the mare has yet to get a p/t winner, makes him avoidable.
Lazarus Bell is similar,although he has only had one run on p/t, but can be passed over.
It would be no surprise to see Prompter be supported, now 15lb lower sice moving to Jonjo and running over wrong trip/ ground. Worth watching in the market.
Whilst the Cayterers won't be carrying my money, an 11yo with a poor strike rate, I certainly won't be laying it at big odds. A quick look at his static h/cap mark is testimony to the fact that he does throw in quite a few decent runs. This is a poor C4, so it would not be a great shock.
Destiny Blue is a possible simply on trainer switch, but he bombed lto when backed into favoritism and is another I couldn't touch off a lay off.
Elpeth's Boy is 0/11 in C4, although carrying a low weight, the price is too short for this weak event.
Lilac Tree looks an in running lay at short odds. Likely to lead, but the stable are just to erratic at the moment.
Berlusca is running well but the mark looks stiff.
I was going to overlook Ishikawa on account of the shorter trip. Got a 100% place record around here from 9 attempts over the 9.5, but only attempted the shorter trip twice. However, he is very consistent and his last a/w run run can be ignored. Looks destined to be staying on for 3rd at the death, but it's no forlorn hope he can win over shorter, especially if Lilac Tree forces the early pace.
I was amazed to see Silverware trading at double figures this morning. In decent form and ran when when last seen over C&D and comes here off same h/cap mark.
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