What are you backing Today?

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Was hopeful for a long way, trouble with watching on ATR is you know you're beaten even when you're still 2 lengths ahead!
 
wolver 7.00 Reggie Bond @ 7.2
Be Royale @ 7.6

Been waiting for a drift on RB on account of the lay off but seems quite solid so far.

Backed RB with a saver on BR. Possible a few wont stay this distance and Quadriga's trainer can't buy a winner.
 
You couldn't make it up: Reggie Bond:

1.06 £50
1.07 £345
1.08 £189
1.09 £49
1.10 £827
1.11 £3,990
1.12 £1,446

Quadriga's trainer can't buy a winner.
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:surrender:

Would have been a nice tricast if it was a tricast race.
 
Thanks SJ. He's a jockey I try and avoid but the stats with the trainer were ok. I got the impression he thought the race was in the bag far too early.
 
If you have backed Penbryn EC1 i'd put an IR lay in as horse travels well but finds little, often trades under 3, well weighted but i think is better over 9fs, good luck young jockey has good course stats.
Think Orpsie Boy should take this.
 
Well done SJ twice.

Jason Hart is always a jockey I don't mind on my side, although he he didn't do me any favours on Point North.

Well done mate.
 
Jack Dexter (2.25) is a 7-10lb better horse on soft ground. Having been 5/5 on the surface previously, he ran the race of his life lto in what was essentially a gp1 race.
That form puts him head and shoulders above the rest, and he should dispose of them comfortably.
 
When the Elite was priced up yesterday they went 9/4 Melodic Rendezvous and 7/2 Far West. Seemed about right to me. But a lot of money has come for the Nicholls horse and MR is intensely backable now at 4/1.
 
By all accounts there is a lot of stable confidence behind Far West, a mate of mine called me earlier who lives locally. Agree about MR really fancy it.
Stable confidence behind a Nicholls horse doesn't mean much, I was there trials day when they and the market wouldn't hear of defeat for Irish Saint who was readily brushed aside by Rolling Star
 
Agree with Reet Hard re Jack Dexter

JACK DEXTER 2.25 DONCASTER


Jack Dexter ran a cracker and marked his card in the Group 2 Qipco Champions Sprint last time. He was beaten a neck by Slade Power who had finished second in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint and third in the Group 1 July Cup. He pulled 3.5ls clear of Group 2 winner Viztoria. He was rated 5lbs inferior to Slade Power and off level weights that looks a performance of note. He has his perfect conditions. He is 5-6 on soft ground and the defeat was the second last time. He is 5-12 over 6f, 5-12 under Graham Lee and 2-4 at Doncaster. Highland Colori beat him 3ls in the Ayr Gold Cup and is 5lbs worse off today.

MR MOONSHINE 2.50 KELSO

Mr Moonshine produced a superb figure last time when fourth in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase. He finished ahead of three horses rated 155+. Conquisto who won the race had won a listed race at Ayr. The form has a solid look to it. He was previously second to Bocciani at Ayr in a class 2. Bocciani went on to win another class 2 off 8lbs higher. A repeat of either of those runs would put Mr Moonshine on the premises here. He was 5lbs wrong at Aintree so effectively he is running off a 5lbs lower mark here. His second in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day last year was another piece of solid form. The winner Cape Tribulation went on to win the Argento and was a 14l fifth in the Gold Cup. He actually had the National winner, stablemate Auroras Encore back in fourth. The problem is he doesn’t win that often but to be fair he does race against top horses. Sue Smith has a 20% strike rate in handicap chases here and won this race in 2011. Ryan Mania is 3-8 in handicap chases at Kelso for Sue Smith.

Upsilon Bleu will be popular. He makes his handicap debut after running in modest novice chases. He was beaten 3ls by 129 rated Kie last time and previously beat a 120 rated horse off levels. However, he was third in a listed chase in France so he clearly has ability. Pauline Robson is 3-14 in handicap chases here but I feel Upsilon Bleu has been given a high mark from what he has achieved.

Swift Arrow won a class 3 handicap chase a year ago off 122 and is still6lbs higher. On a line through Bocciani he should beat Mr Moonshine but it looked like the handicapper had got him where he wanted. He is 2-2 at Kelso and won on this card a year ago.

Wilde Pastures starts the new season 8lbs higher than his last win. He has won when fresh before. A line through Bocciani suggests he can’t beat Mr Moonshine. He is 3-4in cheekpieces and is probably too high in the weights.

Rhymers Ha is 1-18 and is yet to win a chase from 4 attempts. He won off 110 over hurdles so he will find 117 tough against this lot.

Jet Master has been to Lucinda Russell for extensive schooling after unshipping his pilot last twice. He has yet to complete in three chases but he could be classed as unlucky but I understand the plan is for him to complete today. Anything else is a bonus.

Conclusion: Mr Moonshine only has to repeat the form figures of either of his last two chases. He is in a different parish class wise. He looks to have been found a suitable opportunity to win his first race since 2011.
 
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Good luck with JD guys.

I think the top sprinters are glorified handicappers and at the weights JD has nothing in hand over Highland Colori, Spinatrix or Mass Rally all of which will also like the ground. I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole at short odds.

My main fancy today as a value bet is Swynymor at 25/1 in the November Handicap. He is well enough in on his known flat form but he improved markedly over hurdles and if his hurdles OR can translate back to the flat he’s on a winning mark with the prospect of more improvement to come.
 
Euronymous said:
When the Elite was priced up yesterday they went 9/4 Melodic Rendezvous and 7/2 Far West. Seemed about right to me. But a lot of money has come for the Nicholls horse and MR is intensely backable now at 4/1.
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Would've been a good bet, had the forecast rain arrived, but I think he'll struggle for speed on g/s around this sharpish track. Would certainly have to force the pace, to have even a half-chance.
 
Euronymous said:
When the Elite was priced up yesterday they went 9/4 Melodic Rendezvous and 7/2 Far West. Seemed about right to me. But a lot of money has come for the Nicholls horse and MR is intensely backable now at 4/1.
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From my experience, Jeremy Scott tends to be very patient with his horses and I reckon the market drift on Melodic Rendezvous stems from a suspicion he won't be given too hard a time today.

I'm only guessing, though.
 
Fair point, but he has said however he runs today dictates his programme for the rest of the season so I have to think he'll have him fairly straight. At least enough to do himself justice. I think the market has way overfactored this into his price.
 
reet hard said:
Would've been a good bet, had the forecast rain arrived, but I think he'll struggle for speed on g/s around this sharpish track. Would certainly have to force the pace, to have even a half-chance.
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Oops - should have pointed out that I was referring to Far West.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Good luck with JD guys.

I think the top sprinters are glorified handicappers and at the weights JD has nothing in hand over Highland Colori, Spinatrix or Mass Rally all of which will also like the ground. I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole at short odds.
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Well done, guys. I must admit I thought I had it, especially when JD found the door closing on him.
 
A tricky sort of race to get involved in, but in the 15:50 at Market Rasen have had a bit on Wom at the generally available 11/2. Not a bad sort and might just be suited by the 2m3f distance. Should handle the soft ground.
 
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