What are you backing Today?

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Nice little winner, EC.

Unlucky, DO. I had some change on at 11's EW, so I'm not complaining. :)
 
FORTINBRASS 4.30 WOLVERHAMPTON (Each Way)



Ruwaiyan won a 0-80 last time off 73 last time over course and distance. He is 10lbs higher today in a 0-85 and carries 4lbs more physical weight. There was a change of tactics, holding the horse up, and he came home well. The first time cheekpieces and hold up tactics look like they brought about the improvement. This is tougher and may not be run to suit.


Living The Life was 5.5ls behind Ruwaiyan last time and was favourite to beat him. She was 8lbs higher than her two handicap wins in 0-70 and 0-75. Up in class again today she is 9lbs better off with Ruwaiyan. The way she run last time looked like the handicapper was in charge.

Fortinbrass won a claimer last time for Amy Weaver and Middleham Park Racing claimed him. It doesn’t look bad form as he had a couple of horses rated in the 80s behind him, most notably Capall Liath who was rated 87 and carried the same weight. He won a 0-85 off 81 in the summer for Ralph Beckett and has been largely consistent. David O Meara does well with horses he gets sent from claimers, 2-4 have won on their first run for him and one other placed. Fortinbrass has only ever run over 7f once. It is interesting he has taken this engagement as he was entered here tomorrow over 6f in a 0-80.


Docofthebay is just 1lb higher than his win at Southwell in February. However, he is 0-4 at Wolverhampton and just 1-25 for Scott Dixon.


Personal Touch makes his all weather debut off a mark 2lbs higher than his win at Doncaster in March. He was made favourite for an 0-85 last time but finished weakly. He has preferred a bit of give in the ground on turf though being by Pivotal he should handle the surface. However, his dam hasn’t produced one that has, 0-4 but her sire Alhaarth has produced plenty who did.


Als Memory is 0-7 at Wolverhampton and all five wins on the all weather have come at Lingfield. He is 0-10 Oct-Dec. He is 4lbs lower than his win at Chester in the summer.


Fieldgunner Kirkup makes his all weather debut but is another who prefers a bit of cut. Gibbons has been on board in four of his five wins and he has won after a break before. However, all his wins have been close to his yard in Yorkshire. He is 0-9 when having to travel more than an hour in a horsebox.


Piddies Power is 0-8 on an artificial surface.


Oil Strike is 2-3 on the polytrack at Lingfield but is 0-12 over 7f.

Conclusion: There are niggling doubts about all of these. It is likely that Als Memory and Personal Touch may make the running but not guaranteed. There could be no pace on which would suit the prominent horses. Fortinbrass is potentially better than this mark now he is with David O Meara. There is a doubt about the distance but the fact connections have came for this race rather than the easier contest over 6f tomorrow would suggest they think he can stay. There is some value in his price considering the tissue suggests it is between the front four and he should place at worst.
 
5.00 wolves- singzak
2.50 plumpton- mighty mumbo
3.40 Leicester- Algernon pazham
3.10 Leicester- tinelyra
12.35 Leicester- mystery drama

permed in doubles and trebles
 
Leicester 12.35

Mystery Drama – win 2.44 – 5pts – thought to be good enough to be targeting the mares juvenile at Aintree that trainers horse L’Unique won last year – so must win today to be considered.

Taming The Tweet – place @ 10.0 - 5pts – liked her attitude last time out and if held up could come through for a place?
 
I hope Fortinbrass places for you Rob ;), as I thought Ruwaiyan was actually a decent fav at 2.9 this morning.

Unraced at 2yo, then over trips too far, then sidelined through the Al Zarrooni business, only 7 runs for a 4yo, he still looks capable of winning of this mark and higher.

Being a full brother to Laheeb, it was understandable that he ran over further expecting him to want 12f. The only reservation on my part is why Godolphin let him go, but I'm sure there are 100's of those cases.

Wolver 5.00 Zingzak @ 8.8

Ditched this race as being too tough as I could only discount Sommerstorm and Waving, with plenty of others that could generally step up on recent runs.

However, with the defection of original favorite Magika and the money for Yul Finegold, the price of Zingzak is big enough to take the punt, with some staggered laybacks, if he fades in the finish. It would be no surprise to see the Johnson debutaunt try and make all, which would scupper the trades, but Zingzak appears a better horse on p/t and has been dropped 4lb on the back of poor recent turf runs.

He is still 3lb higher than last last C&D win and it's possible today's run will be used to get him down a couple more lbs for a return to 14f.

The money for Yul Finegold is understandable and would be no surprise to see it go 2/1ish if it is strongly fancied, but this looks a tricky C5 h/cap to me, so I couldn't be backing anything short.
 
Mystery Drama – win 2.44 – 5pts – thought to be good enough to be targeting the mares juvenile at Aintree that trainers horse L’Unique won last year – so must win today to be considered.
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Thanks SC. I followed you in, although I managed to get the shortest price, but commi free.

Did well as she didn't hurdle with much fluency.
 
Superciliary (14:50 Plumpton) will do for me today at the decent price of 9/1 (currently available in about 8 places). Should go well in this event, and the G/S ground should suit him.
 
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Good luck Rob, Fortinbras will have a very good chance if staying this 7th furlong.
Incedently think you dismissed Piddies Power AW record a bit quickly as only btn sh/hd and 1/4 length from being a dual course winner!:lol:
Changed stables to someone who hasn't had a runner but could run into a place.
 
WOLV 4:30 OIL STRIKE

Tiny (and I mean tiny) EW for me on this one. The whole race looks messy. FAV looks most likely, FORTINBRASS LTO clocking wasn't great so I have doubts about staying 7F. Figure theres a slim chance that if they go steady for the first furlong or so, then Oil Strike might take off, and might not be for stopping. Fanciful thoughts? probably. :)
 
I considered trading the bet back on Ruwaiyan @ 2.16, with the kick back being so bad and Morris riding poorly earlier on. Decided he would give it a confident ride and track wide and let it ride. He looked like he panicked too early to me.

He will probably romp home on Mick Duggan now.
 
CPGagie said:
Nice little winner, EC.

Unlucky, DO. I had some change on at 11's EW, so I'm not complaining. :)
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I'm pleased for you, Chris. 11/1 isn't my idea of an each-way price. Had it won I'd have felt I'd lost out a bit! I know of someone else who was apparently quite heavily involved each-way.

I went in double strength on the win bet (at 11/1). Maybe the Hippocratic route is more prudent but I'm pretty sure if I'd followed it it would have finished fifth :rolleyes:
 
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WOLV 5:00 FRESA 15/8
I have LTO run as being 1lb well in for today, but there is probably more to come.

ANA SHABABIYA
Up 8lbs for LTO, which looks about right as didn't look a bad race for the grade, but faces a bit of a class jump today. Doesn't look quite good enough.

EURYSTHEUS
Looks a possible danger, but the Jockey course stats are terrible. Probably worth taking on due to that fact alone, but may not quite last the distance either. Saying that it may, and the Jockey is bound to get another winner at Wolves at some point. I'm happy to bet that isn't today though.

EVERLASTING LIGHT
Might appreciate the drop back in trip, but still doesn't look quite good enough.

STANDPOINT
Something looks to have gone wrong. Opposable.

BROCKFIELD
While Jockey doesn't have a good SR with yards older horses, he doesn get on well with this horse. Yard isn't in great form, though did have a winner recently. Seems to have a slight preference to running right handed also. Slight risk at best, opposable.

EGOTIST
LTO didn't confirm anything, though 'may' run a little better over this longer trip. However, despite the weights, shouldn't reverse form with LEAN ON PETE over this CD.

LEAN ON PETE 7/1
LTO can be ignored due to the trip. Is weighted to run a good race on last years form at this time of year, especially if Butterfield can make use of his claim. Doesn't look good enough to beat Fresa, but been thinking about a small covering EW bet on this one, as I have this nagging doubt about Fresa's draw and it looks best of the rest.
Stall 2 with 8 runners looks more a genuine negative than a statistical quirk.
 
After slagging off Luke Morris yesterday, I do actually think he's in for a good day.

Fantasy Gladiator looked to be fairly priced last night @ 11/2 (10p R4).

Last run can be upgraded, even though he may be better at Kempton.

I do have concerns about c/p's off and Quinn not riding, but if the track is riding the same as yesterday in the early races, I'm laying the bet off as the hold up's had little chance.
 
Sth 12.40 Auden win Win @ 34.0

Recently changed stables and has a chance of going on suface, so worth a flyer.
 
ONE SCOOP OR TWO 7.00 WOLVERHAMPTON

Jay Bee Blue was fifth to Brother Tiger in a 0-80 last time keeping on off a mark of 76. Up to 77 today and 7lbs higher than his last winning mark. The booking of Oisin Murphy is very positive but he is up to a level now where he has unplaced twice from two races and his record off marks above 70 reads 0-5, never placed.

Bogsnog won a 0-75 round here last time off 74 and is just 2lbs higher today and just has 1lb more physical weight due to Butterfields claim. However, the 3yo is 0-6, 1 place, in class 4.

Relight My Fire was second in a 0-75 off 74 and is 1lb higher today. He has to carry an extra 5lbs in physical weight but Fentiman replaces a claimer. He is 5lbs higher than his last winning mark and is 0-3, never placed in class 4. He has placed in all three runs on polytrack.

Smalljohn was just over 3ls behind Bogsnog last time and is just 4lbs better off today which includes Butterfields claim. He is 7-26 over 7f here which improves to 6-15 when drawn in one of the inside five stalls. He is in eight today. It is nearly three years since he won a class 4.

One Scoop or Two is back on the mark he won off in March. That was over 8.5f with a 7lbs claimer on board. He has only run over 7f here once back in 2009 where he was fifth of eight. Gibbons has a fine record on the horse; 51422102. This is his first time back on the horse since getting mugged by Ferdy at Chester in July in a 0-80 off 69. One Scoop Or Two was third to Multi Bene in a very fast race at Haydock in September off 73.

Black Dave won a 0-65 off 62 in June and is 5lbs higher and in a better race. He probably needed the run when 7ls behind Jay Bee Blue last time. He is 5lbs better off but shouldn’t turn the tables even though he will be fitter. He is 0-5 in class 4 and 0-4 at Wolverhampton.

Celestial Bay has just had 7 races, two over 7f and unplaced in both. She is by Septime Ciel whose offspring are 0-24 over 7f with just one place. Her dam is yet to produce a winner over 7f, 0-11.

Steel Stockholder has a 50% strike rate on the all weather, 1-2 and hasn’t been seen on sand for nearly four years. He has won 5 times over 7f and has appeared to prefer ground with give. He is 2lbs higher than his win at Musselburgh a year ago, that was a 0-70. He is 1-18 in class 4; the win was over this course and distance.

George Fenton has done all of his winning in lower grades and only run once in class 4. He has won off this mark before, a claimer four runs back. He is 0-3 never placed off 73 in handicaps. He is 5-13 here and all five wins came in class 6 where he is 5-8. He is 0-5 in class 5 and never raced in class 4.

Conclusion: Smalljohn is likely to make the running and Relight My Fire will stalk the pace and that may well be the place to be. Two runs back One Scoop Or Two run in a very quick Haydock 0-80. This is easier and he is 1lb lower. Gibbons is back on board and with his opponents all having to do things they have not done before he looks a decent bet to beat the 3yos.
 
Framed Masterpiece Win & Place

I mentioned Luke Morris having a decent day earlier and this was one of those possibles.

The dilemma is the trainer. Awful strike rate and a maiden S?R of 3%.

I complicated the issue even further by checking if he had previously sent his maidens to similar maidens to this one and the last one has a rating of 39 !!

However, sending this horse to Newmarket and Haydock maidens then in to this, really makes no sense with regard to getting a low mark.

FM's sire has a similar strike rate to that of the fav on fibresand (22%), the horse is an expensive purchase in relation to what he has in stable, the horses form looks enough to get placed and the trainer's form does improve when looking at his single figure runners.

It looks a case of change the trainers name and it would be much shorter.

Rather than go each way @ 9/1, taken some early place money to top up later with a smaller win bet when it should hopefully drift.
 
doomster said:
Framed Masterpiece Win & Place

I mentioned Luke Morris having a decent day earlier and this was one of those possibles.

The dilemma is the trainer. Awful strike rate and a maiden S?R of 3%.

I complicated the issue even further by checking if he had previously sent his maidens to similar maidens to this one and the last one has a rating of 39 !!

However, sending this horse to Newmarket and Haydock maidens then in to this, really makes no sense with regard to getting a low mark.

FM's sire has a similar strike rate to that of the fav on fibresand (22%), the horse is an expensive purchase in relation to what he has in stable, the horses form looks enough to get placed and the trainer's form does improve when looking at his single figure runners.

It looks a case of change the trainers name and it would be much shorter.

Rather than go each way @ 9/1, taken some early place money to top up later with a smaller win bet when it should hopefully drift.
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He almost gave it away at the end.... but good shout Doom
 
He almost gave it away at the end.... but good shout Doom
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Cheers. Possibly went too hard early with the fav, but seemed to be ridden with plenty of confidence. Looked to want to avoid using the whip at any cost.
 
All right now should be thereabouts at Southwell, likely to be up with the pace throughout and hopefully might grind it out. Looks a fair price now. Lees Anthem has run some of his best races for ages recently on soft turf so could have a chance also.
 
Iv'e got four riding for me in in this 3.40.

Not to sure if Tylicki had the choice of staying on for Spitfire.

Aspell seems to be getting everything away early on here so Putin looks a good trading horse @ 11.0, with some staggered trades down. Got a mid div draw and generally gets away.
 
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