What are you backing Today?

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MIDNIGHT CHARMER 3.10 FONTWELL

Midnight Charmer only has to repeat either one of his last two races to take this. He drops in class after finishing a 10l third to Badger Foot in a 0-105 last time. The second has franked the form by being beat a head in another 0-115 off 5lbs higher. Previously, Midnight Charmer had won a 0-105 off 81. He had Roc De Guye 22ls back in fourth and he has gone on to finish second to Drumlang in a 0-115. Midnight Charmer is 7lbs higher than his win but 1lb lower than last time and the drop into 0-95 will suit.

Princely Hero is 2-23 round Fontwell, 1-2 over this distance. His record in 0-100 or less reads 3-15 and that improves to 3-4 when rated 89 or 90. He is off 93 today and he has placed three times from four races off 92 and 93 when racing in 0-100 or worse to suggest he will be thereabouts. The form of his win in a 0-90 last time looks suspect as Overton Lad got within 5ls of him and he has a rating of just 66 and has gone 3.5years without a win. This is over 6f shorter, isn’t a problem, but he just struggles to win chases off marks above 90, 2-28.Both wins came in the summer of 2011 and he is 0-25 since but he has placed in nine.

West Bay Hoolie is a 16 race maiden under rules with just one placed effort. He has shown nothing in three chases. The only positive is Paul Moloney is 2-4 in handicap chases for Helen Nelmes. He has been well backed this morning from double figure odds. He was backed from 10/1 to 6/1 last time and pulled up. He must have shown something at home but all of his dam’s three offspring have failed to win a race and he is the only one to have placed. He is by Nomadic Way who is yet to sire winner of this low a mark in a handicap chase, 0-14 off marks 72 or less and just one place.

Zhukov is 2-6 in handicap chases at Fontwell. He was tailed off on his return from a year off. He is 1lb lower than his last win round here and he should run well. He is 3-5 in 0-95 or 0-90 handicap chases.

Cypress Grove is 2-4 in chases at Fontwell. However, he is 0-7 over 19f-21f with just one place. Has won when fresh before.

Malibu Sun was pulled on his chasing debut on his debut for Ben Pauling. His only win is a maiden hurdle two years ago on good to firm. On his hurdles form he is possibly well in here off 95. He could run well but it is still a big ask with 11-12.

Curragh Dancer has a couple of wins at Fontwell to his name, 1-11 in chases. He won a three runner affair off 79 two years ago. He is down to 60 now and is 9lbs wrong here.

Conclusion: Curragh Dancer, Princely Hero and Cypress Grove should force the pace here. It won’t be frenetic but it should be enough to ensure Midnight Charmer has something to aim at. His form is the strongest in the field and he will find this much easier than last time. Zhukov could run well if he is over whatever kept him off the track for a year and he looks a danger.
 
Southwell 1.30.
Tried to post this morning but computer running like crap.

Laffan @ 7/1
Galician @

Fav looks nailed on with course form but C2 and dropping back a furlong has got me thinking its worth taking on. Laffan is in fair form and went on f/s at a lower level.
Surprising Galician hasnt gone to Dubai, but of the untried ones on the track, he looks the one most likely to handle it, or even improve.
 
MIDNIGHT CHARMER 3.10 FONTWELL


Princely Hero is 2-23 round Fontwell, 1-2 over this distance. His record in 0-100 or less reads 3-15 and that improves to 3-4 when rated 89 or 90. He is off 93 today and he has placed three times from four races off 92 and 93 when racing in 0-100 or worse to suggest he will be thereabouts. The form of his win in a 0-90 last time looks suspect as Overton Lad got within 5ls of him and he has a rating of just 66 and has gone 3.5years without a win. This is over 6f shorter, isn’t a problem, but he just struggles to win chases off marks above 90, 2-28.Both wins came in the summer of 2011 and he is 0-25 since but he has placed in nine.


Presume you mean chases only ? He's run 36 times at Fontwell in all.
 
MIDNIGHT CHARMER 3.10 FONTWELL


Princely Hero is 2-23 round Fontwell, 1-2 over this distance. His record in 0-100 or less reads 3-15 and that improves to 3-4 when rated 89 or 90. He is off 93 today and he has placed three times from four races off 92 and 93 when racing in 0-100 or worse to suggest he will be thereabouts. The form of his win in a 0-90 last time looks suspect as Overton Lad got within 5ls of him and he has a rating of just 66 and has gone 3.5years without a win. This is over 6f shorter, isn’t a problem, but he just struggles to win chases off marks above 90, 2-28.Both wins came in the summer of 2011 and he is 0-25 since but he has placed in nine.


Presume you mean chases only ? He's run 36 times at Fontwell in all.


yeah chases
 
Southwell 1.30.
Tried to post this morning but computer running like crap.

Laffan @ 7/1
Galician @

Fav looks nailed on with course form but C2 and dropping back a furlong has got me thinking its worth taking on. Laffan is in fair form and went on f/s at a lower level.
Surprising Galician hasnt gone to Dubai, but of the untried ones on the track, he looks the one most likely to handle it, or even improve.


Totally agree with you Doomster. I think Galician who has placed 8 times this season from 11 races in 0-100 or less with just one win is a banker to place. My only reservation is this is her 23rd race of 2013.
 
Well done again Rob.

I thought this would be too sharp until I noticed the ground was riding slower than reported so got on in running, with a place lay Zhukov.

Relieved to finish the day in front.

Thanks.
 
Well done, Rob. I didn't see your post today, but may have had a go if I had.

Just woke up to an awful set of results. Narrowed it down to these yesterday at Southwell.

1st Pensax Lad 5/4F
2nd Spitfire 11/8F
1st No Win No Fee 4/1
1st Sakash 9/4J

Didn't have a bean on!

Came nearest to betting with No Win No Fee. Also got an email tracker thing from ATR for one of Steve Lewis Hamiltons early season to follows at Fontwell (1st Bucking The Trend 8/1), just for some additional salt in the wound. Not that I'd have bothered, but even so.

4am here and what a great way to start the day.:whistle:
 
Cheers guys.:)

Chris

Take it as a positive. You have read the races correctly and even though no beans were spent or made, you didn't make an incorrect call.
 
I know you're right, Rob. They were all a bit too risky really, which is why I didn't bet. It's just the way the cookie crumbles at times. It's the one thing that still gets to me, but I know if I followed everything I'd narrowed it down to, I'd be throwing money away.

Calm now, it's just the initial scrolling through the results while repeating some profanity louder and louder with each result. When I got down to Sakash I had to pace about in the Kitchen for half an hour, mumbling shite to myself. :)
 
Trip looks ideal for Kayaan in the lucky last at Leicester.

He smashed up a field in a handicap hurdle by 6 length off 4 pound lower in May at Market Rasen, the first four home all won races since. He's not too badly handicapped on that, and double figure prices look big.
 
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HONEST JOHN 2.50 CATTERICK

Honest John hasn’t shown much for a year but he is back on the mark he last won off and in a class he has an excellent record. He is 2-4 in 0-120, 2-3 in races with 7 runners or less. He is 0-6 in higher grade. He will handle the track as he won round here over hurdles, has his ground and the stable are in form with 2 of their last 4 runners winning.

Categorical is the likely jolly due to his close third in a 0-145 in April. Off the same mark he is sure to have his supporters. The ground is likely to be too quick for him here as he is 1-43 on good or quicker ground and he has unplaced on each of his four visits here. He is 2-10 in 0-120 with a further four places. Both of those wins came when carrying more than 7lbs less than the top weight and his record when within 6lbs of top weight reads 0-4, just one place. He did win a handicap chase off 125 in March 2011 but he is 9lbs higher than his win at Southwell in March.

O Callaghan Strand is 0-4 going left handed in chases. He is 3-12 in handicap chases, 1-4 in 0-120. However, he has failed five times in 0-115 and 0-120 when within 6lbs of top weight or has to carry top weight. He didn’t place in any of those races. He is 6lbs higher than his win at Ludlow in January and is 0-7 off marks above 112.

Everaard is 0-8 when returning to the track after a break of 60 days or more, never placing and all six of his wins have come within 30 days of his last race. He is only lightly raced as a chaser and his record of 2-6 is decent. Both those wins were at Musselburgh. He is perfectly capable of making his presence felt in this grade and won round here over hurdles but he looks sure to need it.

Nodform Richard won this off 115 last year and off 117 he has a decent chance. However, this is much tougher this year. The blinkers are back on and McCain also won this in 2008. He has a live chance.

Noble Witness won over this course and distance in December last year off 99 and has won again off 107. However, all his wins were in 0-110 or less and only once has he ventured into 0-120 and was unplaced.

Conclusion: Nodform Richard is sure to be primed for a repeat performance but this is tougher than last year and Honest John looks well handicapped. He beat Chac Du Cadran a year ago and that horse is now racing off 12lbs higher. He his back on his last winning mark and Paul Bohan is well worth his 7lbs claim which gives Honest John a major chance.

Honest John runs today at Hexham having been a NR last time you put it up Rob.
 
Hi Benny

Seen he was running. This is an easier race, he's 2-3 in 0-115. But I have major doubts about him on this track,never placed on a stiff track.If he can handle Hexham, Alzaos are 2-4 in chases here, he will take a bit of beating but there is a major danger in Wicklow Lad.
 
Described by David Evans as the best he's got after winning at Wolves a month ago, Forest Edge (2.30L) went on to win cosily over a distance probably short of his best lto at Lingfield.
Further improvement can be expected back at this trip, and though he has a tricky draw to overcome, the acceleration he showed to get out of trouble on his latest outing should see him home comfortably.
 
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Good Luck

3.00 Lingfield-If I Were A Boy

Each Way @ 8-1 [Bet 365] BOG

Best speed rating is over this CD
 
7.20 Dundalk

Vector Force

Competitive maiden but Lyons does well with his Kodiacs. Honest speedsters that want top of d ground, I'm happy to have a small win interest at d prices.
 
14:20 Hexham Cloverhill Lad 8/1
15:20 Hexham Fozy Moss 5/1

2 singles & an e/way double

Trainer targets track and is 3wins from 6 runners this season at Hexham he's using his go to jockey who has a 7lb claim and is 2wins from 2 runners for trainer at Hexham this season.
 
Great winner SW.

Phone rang as I was about to back the beast, got totally distracted and forgot all about it.
 
14:20 Hexham Cloverhill Lad 8/1
15:20 Hexham Fozy Moss 5/1

2 singles & an e/way double

Trainer targets track and is 3wins from 6 runners this season at Hexham he's using his go to jockey who has a 7lb claim and is 2wins from 2 runners for trainer at Hexham this season.

Quality spot SW and I really thought you had the double up, even though that has always been a terrible camera angle.

Still a decent payout.

Well done.
 
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