What are you backing Today?

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I've managed to filter out every runner except Boughforasong, so backed at 20.0/4.4 in the 7.50 for a small bet.
 
I've managed to filter out every runner except Boughforasong, so backed at 20.0/4.4 in the 7.50 for a small bet.

Failed to get the place money finishing 4th, but never got a clear run until too late.
 
THORESBY 12.30 HUNTINGDON

Thoresby has a decent record at this level. He is 3-8 in handicap hurdles, 0-100 to 0-115 which improves to 3-5 when on a right handed track. Daryl Jacob is 2-2 on him under those conditions. He was beaten 10ls in a 0-120 last time. The third has since won a 0-120 and the fourth a 0-100. He is only 1lb higher than his win at Towcester in May and Jacob is back on board. Ben Case is in form and has a 25% strike rate in handicap hurdles round here, 6-24 with a further 5 placed.

Shadarpour is the likely jolly and won a 0-95 at Plumpton last time. He is 7lbs higher and up in grade. He should have some improvement in him though he is yet to place in three races, 0-100 or higher. He is 0-7 going right handed, never placed including when he was in France. He did finish third at Maissons Lafitte but who knows which direction he run there.

Zafaraban was second in a 0-105 in July is still a maiden after 14 races, 7 under NH rules. It is a couple of years since George Baker saddled a winning horse on its first run for him after arriving from another yard, 0-15 since. However, under National Hunt rules his record reads 3-33 with the last winner in 2008, 0-23.

Larteta is lightly raced and he marked his card when second to My Oh Mount Brown last time in a 0-110. He should run his race off 1lb higher but Sarah Humphrey is without a winner since July, 0-25. She is 1-13 in handicap hurdles at Huntiingdon.

Brian’s Well has been beaten over 40ls in each of his three runs over hurdles but it would be no surprise to see him improve on his handicap debut. However, Powell is 1-46 with horses making their debut in a handicap hurdle after finishing down the field in their three previous non handicap hurdles.

Time For Spring has lost his way over fences but he is extremely well handicapped here. He is 10lbs lower than when he won a 0-125 in March 2011. He was tailed off in a handicap hurdle last time.Longsdon is 2-7 with horses that race in a handicap hurdle after running in chases but he is 0-8 when they run over hurdles for a second time. He could quite easily sluice up here but he can’t be selected with any confidence.

Rule Of Thumb was beaten 15ls in a 0-105 last time and steps up in distance. He won a bumper a year ago but has shown nothing in all his hurdle races. He is by Tobougg whose offspring have a 4% strike rate in handicap hurdles and are 5-117 in races over 20f-22f.

Kyle’s Faith has shown nothing in six races and was beaten 15ls in a selling hurdle in October. He is the second foal of Littleton Liberty who has yet to have a win from either of her sons. He’s probably here to keep Champion Court company in the wagon.

Boomtown won a 0-100 off 85 a year ago and the handicapper put him up 15lbs. That was his third win in the Autumn of 2012 and he is still 10lbs higher. Though Gerald Quinn is 3-6 on him he is 0-5, never placed, in Class 4.

Conclusion: Thoresby knows his way round here and has ticks in the right boxes. The drying ground will suit and with the absence of a recognised front runner he should track the pace before making his move in the straight. Time For Spring would be a huge danger if he returned to form.
 
Good luck Rob - tell everyone at G/R I haven't deserted I'm just too busy at work to find the study time - love reading your write ups by the way - all the the best.
 
6.20 Kempton-Dixie's Dream

Each Way @ 11-2 [Boylesports] BOG

Only danger for me is the favourite
 
Kem 5.50 Plough Boy. @ 5.6

Has a decent chance on ratings alone, but the fact his "goto" jock is here for the one ride only strenthens his chance. 3/5 @ 5//1,/ 3/1,7/2 during this season on ride at 5/1 or lower.
 
Kem 5.50 Plough Boy. @ 5.6

Has a decent chance on ratings alone, but the fact his "goto" jock is here for the one ride only strenthens his chance. 3/5 @ 5//1,/ 3/1,7/2 during this season on ride at 5/1 or lower.

I thought he would get there but beaten around a neck into 3rd.
 
Michael Appleby has 5 runners at wolves and southall think they could all go well. Would like to see some money in the market but I'm on in doubles and trebles.
 
WOLV 3:55 ANFIELD 9/2 EW (1/2 Stakes)
Should do best of the front runners, and 3lb claim will help. Rain forecast which will help as well. I have it as being around 1L well in on the Kempton run, but seems to be very steadily improving. Looks the target for the others to aim at. Theres two or three that could improve enough, but thats a 'could'. I think EW is probably the best way to play as should run it's race and hopefully hold off any late challengers (if not going too fast too early), minimum loss for a place.

WOLV 4:25 HASTA LA VISTA 8/1
There are trip concerns regarding TRINITY LORRAINE. On that note I don't see why Hasta La vista should be 8/1. Johnston's yard is in much better form now than the middle of last Month. Hasta La Vista was tracked by NICE ARTY over this CD LTO and both took a similar route 3 wide. Nice Arty lost 1 - 1.5L at the start, but HLV is getting another 10lbs today. Nice Arty won next time out over this CD, but it was a poor contest and had the run of the race. It's SF's would suggest it did improve a touch though, but I don't see why Hasta La Vista isn't entitled to improve also, especially with the yard going much better now. Stall 2 is of concern, but might not be enough to stop it (providing Trinity Lorraine fails to stay of course).

WOLV 4:55 DERFENNA ART 4/1
Yard in good form and Baker booked again to make amends for a narrow defeat LTO when running a good race from the front. The Fav that day was well in and got a troubled passage, though the others around it at the finish raced in midfield or came from the rear. Untried at Wolves, but the slightly shorter trip could be ideal. Mosman shouldn't be too far away as looks weighted correctly for it's LTO run, but not sure to build on that. Six Silver Lane has a tough draw in 2 and would need to improve a little on last run. While the Prescott runner has to be taken into consideration, I figure it's worth taking on. MOJO BEAR rates a danger, and should be staying on late, but hopefully won't be able to catch Derfenna Art who's Kempton race looked a little hotter than the race that contested LTO.

WOLV 6:55 CLASSY TRICK 16/1
Could possibly be excused for poor runs on turf, and over 1M4F which would have been too far. May not be as good at Kempton as well. If able to get somewhere near it's two decent runs at this time last year, would probably see it take this. Was with Fahey then, but interesting that Morris has booked Martin Harley for the ride, though he's obviously nipping over to Wolves to ride Magika in the 5:25. Trying the cheek pieces today. Morris has a lousy SR at Wolves and hasn't had a winner since last September. The only owner to have horses with him over the last two years is Dr Marwan Koukash, not sure what happened there? It's such an awful race, but if the pieces bring about some zest/focus, might be able to take this. Looks worthy of a 'small flutter' at a big price.

Also had a small EW treble with the first three, and a small win ACC on all four, just in case. :)
 
SOUTHFIELD THEATRE 3.15 CHELTENHAM

This race has been won by a 5yo for three of the last four years including the smart At Fishers Cross and Time For Rupert. The only 5yo not to win was the Paul Nicholls trained Oscargo.
Southfield Theatre has a 4lbs pull for a short head defeat to Return Spring over this course last time and over 1.5f shorter he should turn the tables. He has some high class form in his locker including a 4l 4th to The New One in a bumper. There is no pace in this race and as he has made all in the past he could have this run to suit.

Return Spring who beat Southfield Theatre last time has to improve again and he has to be held up which won’t suit here. Thomas Crapper is 12lbs higher than the start of the season and races in a much higher grade. He’s done nothing wrong but he’s another hold up horse who is trying to stay 24f for the first time. Angles Hill was second to Thomas Crapper last time and with Conor Shoemark’s claim he should turn the tables. He is up in grade and distance. Mister Dillon hasn’t won for two years and was beaten 4ls in a lesser grade off 1lb lower.

Conclusion: All the ratings point to the front two in the market and they look to have this between them. Southfield Theatre is potentially very smart and he can make all here.
 
Big after time on my part ( if it wins) but typed this up last night but failed to post. Yasir was 9/1 at the time.


Southwell 2.30 Yasir. win @

Queen Of Skies. saver @ 8/1

Yasir looks one to avoid having been beaten 22l on his only attempt on this surface. Also worth considering he has gone from Surror to Lucinda Russell (18k), to Conor Dore for a paltry 2k, inside a year, so really could not be taking a short price on this one, even for a C6.

The defeat actually does not look a total disaster, two notches up than today's event off a 10lb higher mark and a race which looks quite solid and probably over a trip too far for him, although he was keen lto.

Trying this surface is understandable as the sire is 8/20 at the track for a 40%SR, with three individual horses winning from a possible nine.

The only runner to come out of his last race, again over 14f, was the 2nd who went on to win a h/cap at Southwell nto.

Even though he was only a 2k purchase he has been winning races, albeit a couple of claimers. His running style may not be suited to the track, as he struggles from the start, but I do thinks he's worth a punt.

Queen Of The Skies will probably be punted on account of the trainer/track record and may well be a Hugh Taylor tip, but she has improved on all three runs for the trainer and his sire also has a good record on fibresand, although the ideal trip seems to be over shorter ( Queenies Home in the 12.20 ?)

Only going in with a saver on account of the trip issue.
 
Good call Doomster


MAGIKA 5.25 WOLVERHAMPTON

Marco Botti could saddle the stable cat to win at present and his last 4 runners at Wolverhampton have returned; 1121. He saddles a live one here in Magika who won as she liked when she was last seen when winning at Windsor in a 0-70 in October. She is up in grade to 0-85 and 6lbs higher but the form of her second to Prospera in August suggests she is ahead of her mark. She was beaten 4ls that day but the winner has since won twice off 7lbs and 13lbs higher. She won her maiden on this track a year ago and the record of her trainer and jockey at Wolverhampton is enlightening. Botti and Martin Harley have an excellent record overall of 10-36 which improves to 10-20 when the horse is priced at 4/1 or less. Their record in handicaps is 4-7 with a further two placed. 3-4 with 3yos racing against their elders. There is no front runner in the race and that won’t suit Knockgraffan Lad, All The Winds and Next Edition. Magika should just sit off the pace here or could even make it but either way it will be run at a dawdle and that will suit the filly. She should have too much for this lot.
 
Good call Doomster


MAGIKA 5.25 WOLVERHAMPTON

Marco Botti could saddle the stable cat to win at present and his last 4 runners at Wolverhampton have returned; 1121. He saddles a live one here in Magika who won as she liked when she was last seen when winning at Windsor in a 0-70 in October. She is up in grade to 0-85 and 6lbs higher but the form of her second to Prospera in August suggests she is ahead of her mark. She was beaten 4ls that day but the winner has since won twice off 7lbs and 13lbs higher. She won her maiden on this track a year ago and the record of her trainer and jockey at Wolverhampton is enlightening. Botti and Martin Harley have an excellent record overall of 10-36 which improves to 10-20 when the horse is priced at 4/1 or less. Their record in handicaps is 4-7 with a further two placed. 3-4 with 3yos racing against their elders. There is no front runner in the race and that won’t suit Knockgraffan Lad, All The Winds and Next Edition. Magika should just sit off the pace here or could even make it but either way it will be run at a dawdle and that will suit the filly. She should have too much for this lot.

cheers Rob..just got in from work and read your post..paid for the turkey;)..quality call:cool:
 
had a look at the 5.55 last night and one that caught my eye is Moss Quito

best horse in a poor race..omeara is very good here with horses off a break..and more interestingly has very few 3yo's bother running during December + January..has had 3 this year but his figures for 3yo in these months over the last few years is impressive..6/15

trades at 4.0
 
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Well done Rob with Majika.

Backed it myself so had a decent day until I noticed Sir Geoffrey winning yesterday. Had my bollox on it lto and was certain it was on my nag me service.
 
Strategic Action can run well in the first race at Southwell today. Keeping on well last time after not getting the clearist of runs, he'll start winning races of this type of mark. Those last three attempts at Lingfield have seen his rating drop the 6 or 7 pound required.

George Benjamin is obviously the one to beat.
 
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Smashing call Roddy, watched with delight.


OFF THE GROUND 2.40 DONCASTER

Emma Lavelle bids to win this for a second year running. Her record at Doncaster reads 8-30 which improves to 6-10 in handicap chases. Her record improves again when the horse is in the first three of the betting to 4-4. Off The Ground won a 0-130 over this course and distance without breaking sweat last time. However, the form of his previous race, when a poor third in a 0-125 over 24f looks very good. The second horse was Present View who has since won and finished a close second off 7lbs higher. Another three horses have ran and won. Off The Ground is 15lbs higher than his last run but he looks a most progressive sort.

Kings Grey was second in this event two years ago off 125 and can be opposed off 139. He is 0-8 in races where the average OR is 127 or higher.

Tahiti Pearl was beaten 0.5l by Kings Grey over this course and distance a year ago and is 4lbs worse off today. Four of his five wins have come at Sedgefield. He has never won a race with an average OR of 111 or higher, 0-6, though he has placed three times. The highest average OR of race he has raced in is 127.

Clarragh Native won a couple of runs back off 110 and showed improved form when finishing second off 118 last time. He is up another 2lbs and he could have more to offer. He has done all his winning on right handed tracks, 0-5 going left handed. Todhunter is 2-8 in handicap chases here.

Hazy Tom was well held in a decent race at Newbury last time when he unshipped his rider. He is still 7lbs higher than when he won a 4 runner affair at Bangor three runs back and his last two runs have suggested the handicapper has got him. Emma Lavelle has a good line on him through Easter Meteor.

Arthurs Pass is still 4lbs higher than his win in a three runner race in February. He is now 19lbs higher than when he started the year. All four of his wins have come on right handed tracks, 0-7 going left handed though he has placed.

Nadiya De La Vega was 8/1 fifth favourite for the December Gold Cup this time last year and was racing off 145. She didn’t do much in the Paddy Power and she will be much fitter today. She is off a very handy mark of 138, won off 140 in April. She is 3-4 in small fields and looks to have a lot going for her. Twice she has carried weights 11-9 and 11-0 and both times she was beaten out of sight. She has never carried more than 11-2 to victory. Henderson is 2-19 in handicap chases at Doncaster and that was Wogan. Nine horses have run since March 2010 and all bar one were in single figures odds and all lost.

Conclusion: Nadiya De la Vega would look huge if she returned to form but there are big negatives with her at present. Most of these are run of the mill exposed handicappers who will pick a race or two up in their turn. However, the unexposed Off The Ground holds a similar profile to Easter Meteor and he may well be rated a lot higher when he heads for the spring festivals. He could take a lot of beating here.
 
good luck Rob

going for a cheap starter in the 12.00 fairyhouse..in what looks a match i prefer Abbyssial..

potentially a 130 horse looking at the French form against an 85 flat horse in powder hound.. who might be of slightly lesser level on first run if you add the 35lb difference in codes

on top of that Meade's horses are not running that well whereas Mullins is scorching

Abbyssial....2.88 at the moment and should be fav imo
 
Doncaster
11.55 Any Given Moment e/way 9.0 & 2.68 weighted to turn it around with likely fav - trainers horses in great form with 66/1 & 20/1 winners & a PU this week.

Cheltenham
12.10 Cadoudoff e/way 11.0 & 2.06 3 places betfair - will be more prominent today now they know he stays.

Lingfield
12.50 Wychwoods Brook e/way 7.2 & 2.5 - quietly fancied l/t/o if not affected by the fall should go close.
 
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