What are you backing Today?

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WOLV 8:50 WEE JEAN 8/1
Yard in form. Nice draw. Does have a lay off to overcome, but went well on debut. I've looked at it's pedigree, and I can tell you straight, I don't really know what I'm doing in that department, but what I'm looking at seems to be saying the AW surface shouldn't be a problem. Some of Wee Jeans form has a rock solid look to it and could have improved at home. The Ascot form if taken at face value would put it seriously well in here off 90.

I'm worried about stablemate Porteous, as I have that one as being 2 - 3 lengths well in (in a pure handicapping sense).

Porteous taking a step up in class. Carrying 8-02 doesn't mean it'll run faster, though it may well last longer. I'm leaning towards it being outclassed by something, and I'm betting that it's her stablemate.
Porteous is entered to run in a 0-85 at Kempton on the 12th where she'd have a solid chance.

Distant Past could be anything, but would have to be pretty good to make the class jump. It's entirely possible though.

Zalzilah is interesting, but doesn't look quite good enough for this.

Scruffy Tramp was quite a late foal, went well on debut, but looks best over the minimum. Draw not great.

Pound Piece looks a little outclassed and doesn't have a great draw, neither does Alfie Lunette who also looks outclassed.

Steventon Star ran best of those drawn low at Doncaster, but didn't seem as good on poly LTO, though that was over 1M, but even so.

Concockle doesn't look good enough.

-----

WEE JEAN can't be described as a solid bet, but I reckon she's worth a go at 8's.

Now I'm going to power sleep for 4 hours then go to the pub. :cool:
 
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Trainer Richard Lee could have a winner or two at Chepstow today.

It looks like Kris Spin (1:25) can win a race soon and may have found his opportunity.

Mountainous (2:00) ran well to finish 3rd on his first start this season when upped in class, and whilst there's a few at the top of the market with chances, I think this horse has the most progressive profile. He races off just an 8 pound higher mark than when he first started over fences, he's hardly been a disappointment...

Big News (3:00) beat Jonjo O Neill's horse, Storm Survivor, in a novice chase last year when they both pulled clear of the field. Storm Survivor proceeded to win the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter, now rated in the mid 130's. You'd have to say a rating of 123 for Big News is marvellous if you're a punter looking to back something well-in today. A left handed track like Chepstow has been a rarity for this horse so far in his career and can bring out improvement too.
 
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CPG
Had a look at this yesterday, and decided Wee Jean didn't take to the Goodwood hill - was hanging right with her jockey trying to correct her down most of the straight. As a fast ground sprinter, LH flat Wolverhampton would probably be nearest her ideal AW track, so have followed you in.
 
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No, not today, Benny. I haven't really got time to discuss why not. Basically I think this race looks tougher, and I also think a step back up in trip will be best for RIT.

Thats good to know, RH. Even the Goodwood run doesn't look too bad. Wrong trip, didn't like the course, was probably eased a little, yet only beaten 7L in a GP3. Might not have been at best either as may need a little rest between races. You could look at her form with the idea she needs 3 weeks between races, and it takes a whole new shape as well.

The more I look, the more I like.

Gotta go, there's beers with my name on them. :) Good luck today guys.
 
JOIN TOGETHER 2.05 AINTREE


Join Together is a big price for this considering he had a few of these behind him when second in this last year off 148. He races off 2lbs lower this year but what is significant is the first time blinkers. In the last three years Paul Nicholls has applied blinkers for the first time to horses in Class 1 or Class 2 just four times and three have won.

LEXIS BOY 2.15 WETHERBY

Lexis Boy was competing in some decent hurdles last year. His last race was the Grade 1 Galway Hurdle, 0-150, for which he was 15/2 fourth favourite when he was brought down. He was rated 90 on the flat. He is 3-4 in class 3 or 4, 3-3 in 0-145 or lower. He has his ideal conditions. Donald McCain has a very good record with horses returning from a year or more off, 11-75. However, that improves dramatically in class 2, 3 or 4 hurdle races to 7-40. 4-10 in the last 12 months and two of the last three have won. The record of horses returning in 0-120 or higher reads 4-16. Henry Brooke is 3-3. He faces some horses with big negatives here.

Zaplamation won last time over course and distance and has a 5lbs penalty. The second has subsequently won. This is much tougher than the race he won, average OR 115 compared to today’s 126. He does run this course well.

Lightening Rod was 10ls behind Zaplamation last time and has the assistance of a top claimer this time. He is 10lbs better off today so in effect should get closer. This is tougher and he has never placed in a race 0-125 or better, 0-7.

Deepsand has won a 0-135 in the past. It was a poor 0-135 with an average OR of 119.He hasn’t placed in two races in a higher grade though. He was hiked 12lbs for that win and has struggled off the higher marks since. He is still 9lbs higher.

Ali Brewer hasn’t worked her magic on Skint yet and he returns to hurdling off a 9lbs lower mark than he has been chasing from. He probably isn’t the same horse that won a Grade 3 in March 2011, his last hurdle win, and I am more inclined to think the 21l sixth at Worcester in the summer off 119 is about where he is now.

Alaivan was last seen 23ls behind Hurricane Run in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle in April 2011. Clearly smart for Edward O Grady, he makes his debut for Jonjo O Neill. Jonjo is 1-13 with horses returning after a break of more than two years. Jonjo has an 8% strike with horses making their debut for him after arriving from another yard though two of the last ten runners have won. He is 5-53 with runners having their first run for him after arriving from another yard and having more than a year since their last run.

Maybe I Wont has placed 8 times in 12 runs under NH rules. This is out of his league. James Moffat is 7-125 class 2 and 3 handicap hurdles.

Pas Trop Tard is 0-8, never placed, in 0-135 or higher. He did win a 0-125 off 124 in January and is 7lbs higher now.

Pertemps Networks hasn’t won a hurdle for nearly five years. I’m sure Mick will have something lined up for him somewhere.

Conclusion: Lexis Boy held three entries today and this is the easiest of them. He holds an entry in The Ladbroke. He is clearly useful but how much ability he retains is unknown. However, McCain brought one back a year ago for this owner to win after more than a year off. He is tactically adept. Zaplamation is the likely jolly but he like a lot of others are going to have show improvement to get involved. If Lexis Boy’s entry into The Ladbroke is to be taken seriously, he has to win this.
 
Good Luck

Each Way bets today

12.40 Wetherby-Purcell's Bridge @ 12-1 [Bet 365] BOG

1.30 Aintree-Dundee @ 7-1 [Bet 365] BOG

2.15 Wetherby-Lightening Rod @ 5-1 [Bet Victor] BOG

2.50 Wetherby-Basford Ben @ 10-1 [Bet 365]
 
1.40 Wetherby

Imjoeking is well in here on that run behind Mwaleshi,,very strong on the clock..could be 10lb+ in front of mark. Best bet today for me.
 
My only bet this afternoon was Imjoeking and Sire De Grudgy in an e/w double.

Roll on the dross tonight.
 
PlaceBacker said:
Good Luck

Each Way bets today

12.40 Wetherby-Purcell's Bridge @ 12-1 [Bet 365] BOG

1.30 Aintree-Dundee @ 7-1 [Bet 365] BOG 2nd @ 8-1

2.15 Wetherby-Lightening Rod @ 5-1 [Bet Victor] BOG

2.50 Wetherby-Basford Ben @ 10-1 [Bet 365] WON
Click to expand...

Happy with that
 
CPGagie said:
WOLV 8:50 WEE JEAN 8/1
Yard in form. Nice draw. Does have a lay off to overcome, but went well on debut. I've looked at it's pedigree, and I can tell you straight, I don't really know what I'm doing in that department, but what I'm looking at seems to be saying the AW surface shouldn't be a problem. Some of Wee Jeans form has a rock solid look to it and could have improved at home. The Ascot form if taken at face value would put it seriously well in here off 90.

I'm worried about stablemate Porteous, as I have that one as being 2 - 3 lengths well in (in a pure handicapping sense).

Porteous taking a step up in class. Carrying 8-02 doesn't mean it'll run faster, though it may well last longer. I'm leaning towards it being outclassed by something, and I'm betting that it's her stablemate.
Porteous is entered to run in a 0-85 at Kempton on the 12th where she'd have a solid chance.

Distant Past could be anything, but would have to be pretty good to make the class jump. It's entirely possible though.

Zalzilah is interesting, but doesn't look quite good enough for this.

Scruffy Tramp was quite a late foal, went well on debut, but looks best over the minimum. Draw not great.

Pound Piece looks a little outclassed and doesn't have a great draw, neither does Alfie Lunette who also looks outclassed.

Steventon Star ran best of those drawn low at Doncaster, but didn't seem as good on poly LTO, though that was over 1M, but even so.

Concockle doesn't look good enough.

-----

WEE JEAN can't be described as a solid bet, but I reckon she's worth a go at 8's.

Now I'm going to power sleep for 4 hours then go to the pub. :cool:
Click to expand...

Grabs 3rd in the stewards room, looked justified as there was a little interference close home.
 
Couple of each way bets at Warwick [BOG]

1.40-Sublime Talent @ 17-2 [Stan James]

3.10-Mini Muck @ 3-1 [Paddy Power]
 
WOLV 4:10 TRACKS OF MY TEARS
Clocked well LTO. Certainly looks the one to beat, but isn't much of a price. Will get involved if I can get 6/4+, though that looks unlikely.


LING 3:30 CATALINAS DIAMOND 14/1 EW
I find the booking of Martin Dwyer interesting. Is back down to a decent mark, but needs to be ridden well, as won't stay in front for long. The two poor runs at this CD I noticed was when it was raining, which could be a coincidence. Two other races where it ran OK at the CD there was only light drizzle, otherwise it was dry.
Draw OK. Yard hard to predict, but is rarely far away over this CD (apart from when it was raining?). There should be a decent enough pace on, and Dwyer might just be able to time it right. Has gone OK fresh before off the same mark in this class.

Roys Legacy
Was the one that got me interested in the race initially, as looks ready to strike. I'm confused though, as I don't understand why they didn't enter it in the 5F 0-70 earlier on the card as it seems best over that CD. It may well get this CD now, but it's risky. Draw not great either.

Shawkantango is better at Wolves and has a tricky draw here. I would have felt comfortable about betting that Roys Legacy could reverse placings with that one over 5F at this course, but not sure about the trip. Poorly drawn anyway.

Welsh Moonlight could rate a danger back up to 6F, but has a very tricky draw in 6.

Assembly will be upfront and may enjoy dropping back to 6F. While that Kempton race was a 0-75 claiming race (claimed), the time was poor and the race hasn't worked out too well since. No idea why they sent it hurdling. Might get a bit too much hassle upfront as well.

Invigilator has yet to race at Lingfield and performs better at Wolves than Kempton so might not be that versatile on the AW, and is perhaps a little high in the weights. Also very interesting is that Martin Dwyer gets on extremely well with Invigilator (3-5 and one of those losses was only beaten 1L after being switched).

Street Power has tumbled down the weights, and has been dropping in class, but that doesn't seem to have helped, also looks better at Kempton. Though has a win over this CD and in this class, but that was back in 2009. Tough draw.

Uprise will have to improve from what it did at Kempton LTO, as that race was set up for the closers. On that note, ALIS AQUILAE is probably worth keeping tabs on. Has a tough draw in 11.

Ghost Train might recapture some of it's old form, which would probably be enough, but that looks a little unlikely. I'd feel differently if the Yard had shown some recent form.

Celestial Bay saves it's best for Bath, but could surprise.

Clock Opera ran OK LTO, but wasn't that fast. The leaders, who got away early came back. It was a flip start. I've timed the race and while it was hampered at the start the race fell into it's lap. This looks tougher.

Belle Bayardo yard isn't in form at the moment, but is starting to knock on the door with a few. Could surprise (despite being the outsider) as down to 61 and has run well over this CD in better class off higher.


CATALINAS DIAMOND can't be called a solid bet, but has given the yard a winner once in each of the last 3 years. Draw, mark, CD and likely pace all good. I do like this jockey booking as well. To me it seems like they're going for it today and at the price looks worthy of an EW punt.
 
decided to leave 'em alone today but I been suckered into backing Doldrums in the 4.40 at 3.05.

Trainer really should know what is required to beat Modernism, but the the dam of my pick has produced plenty of quality animals and she won her maiden at a time when the stable are struggling for winners.
 
I couldn't understand why it traded so short in running, with the winner trading up to 4.0.

Backing the Johnson horses in the winter use to be a little goldmine, but I swore not to touch them weeks ago, but he showed some recent form.
 
"decided to leave 'em alone today"

Which is exactly what I should have done. No real damage done, but why I got involved in the 3:30 I don't know. I think that because it was such a nightmare to work through, I ended up backing something. As soon as I sensed how difficult the race was, I should have ignored the race. Maybe feeling over confident as I've had a few winners lately.

Time to take a break. :)
 
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