What are you backing Today?
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BennyB
Senior Jockey
Unlucky with your Irish selection Rob, great shout nevertheless.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Un Bon P'Tit Gars in the 3.10 at Chepstow. Showed a marked improvement in his jumping last time out when runner-up to Valdez. Hopefully he won't go too fast in front. Wyck Hill is overpriced in the National - has a great record in deep ground. And First Lieutenant in the Lexus.
EC1
On a break
12.15 Newbury
Baradari would be a 90+ horse on the flat and has had a pipeopener over jumps..potentially a 130+ horse
Ronadhino was not quite up to Baradi on the flat and King is performing at half his normal December strike rate
Sleepy Haven is rated 114 which is potentially lots below Baradari and has to give weight
Cadadouf looks to be about rated correctly off mid 120's and will struggle to give weight to Baradi
Baradi looks a geeod bet to start the day
Baradari would be a 90+ horse on the flat and has had a pipeopener over jumps..potentially a 130+ horse
Ronadhino was not quite up to Baradi on the flat and King is performing at half his normal December strike rate
Sleepy Haven is rated 114 which is potentially lots below Baradari and has to give weight
Cadadouf looks to be about rated correctly off mid 120's and will struggle to give weight to Baradi
Baradi looks a geeod bet to start the day
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BennyB
Senior Jockey
Nice one to start the day EC.
PUDSEY HOUSE 3.35 CATTERICK
Pudsey House has a massive chance. He was collared by Gulf Punch rated 110 and Harris rated 106 in a much better race than this last time. There are no such horses in the race today. The three pulled 13ls clear of the field. Pudsey House was previously 3.75ls behind Auberge at Musselburgh and is 2lbs worse off at the weights today. He should have the beating of the mare under these conditions. John Wade has placed Pudsey House brilliantly here as John Dawson can claim 6lbs of his full 7lbs claim.
Auberge is 0-7 on soft ground and is 0-25 in class 4. The mare is 9lbs higher than her win at Hexham in the summer. She is 0-18 off marks above 90 with just three places.
Alf The Audacious was beaten half of Northumberland when last seen at Hexham but the winner and second have both won since. With him being dropped 4lbs and Callum Bewley claiming 6lbs he looks on a dangerous mark. Alf is the second foal of Rua Ros and Sue Smith trained his full sister Floraclock. She didn’t manage to place in any of her five races. Sue did win this race five years ago and she is 2-21 with maidens in handicap hurdles here.
Carmela Marie is 3-8 over this course and distance, 3-4 on soft, and won this two years ago off 2lbs lower. She was in trouble a long way out last time behind Pudsey House but she is better on soft ground. Sowersby is without a winner since September 0-25.
Oh Right has been chasing and reverts back to hurdles. It is possible that Oh Right has filled up the horse box as both he an Auberge are trained by mother and daughter at the same place. Oh Right is 0-15 on good to soft or slower and has never placed in three races beyond 24f.
Accordingtoscript is 3lbs lower than his win 14 months ago but he is 0-4 never placed on soft ground.
Danceintothelight was tailed off behind Pudsey House last time. He loves this track but is 0-11 never placing beyond 19f.
Ballyreesode won a couple of hurdle races in Ireland in the spring and is just 1lb higher here. Sue Corbett has done well to get Ryan Hatch to ride him but Hatch is here to ride Qasser in the 1.55. Ballyreesode is 2-4 on soft ground and could run well at a price. However, it is over a year since Sue Corbett saddled a winner under rules, 0-51.
Conclusion: Pudsey House looked all over the winner of a better race than this last time. He should get things his own way up front though I feel Oh Right is here to be a spoiler. I don’t envisage Pudsey getting caught this time.
Pudsey House has a massive chance. He was collared by Gulf Punch rated 110 and Harris rated 106 in a much better race than this last time. There are no such horses in the race today. The three pulled 13ls clear of the field. Pudsey House was previously 3.75ls behind Auberge at Musselburgh and is 2lbs worse off at the weights today. He should have the beating of the mare under these conditions. John Wade has placed Pudsey House brilliantly here as John Dawson can claim 6lbs of his full 7lbs claim.
Auberge is 0-7 on soft ground and is 0-25 in class 4. The mare is 9lbs higher than her win at Hexham in the summer. She is 0-18 off marks above 90 with just three places.
Alf The Audacious was beaten half of Northumberland when last seen at Hexham but the winner and second have both won since. With him being dropped 4lbs and Callum Bewley claiming 6lbs he looks on a dangerous mark. Alf is the second foal of Rua Ros and Sue Smith trained his full sister Floraclock. She didn’t manage to place in any of her five races. Sue did win this race five years ago and she is 2-21 with maidens in handicap hurdles here.
Carmela Marie is 3-8 over this course and distance, 3-4 on soft, and won this two years ago off 2lbs lower. She was in trouble a long way out last time behind Pudsey House but she is better on soft ground. Sowersby is without a winner since September 0-25.
Oh Right has been chasing and reverts back to hurdles. It is possible that Oh Right has filled up the horse box as both he an Auberge are trained by mother and daughter at the same place. Oh Right is 0-15 on good to soft or slower and has never placed in three races beyond 24f.
Accordingtoscript is 3lbs lower than his win 14 months ago but he is 0-4 never placed on soft ground.
Danceintothelight was tailed off behind Pudsey House last time. He loves this track but is 0-11 never placing beyond 19f.
Ballyreesode won a couple of hurdle races in Ireland in the spring and is just 1lb higher here. Sue Corbett has done well to get Ryan Hatch to ride him but Hatch is here to ride Qasser in the 1.55. Ballyreesode is 2-4 on soft ground and could run well at a price. However, it is over a year since Sue Corbett saddled a winner under rules, 0-51.
Conclusion: Pudsey House looked all over the winner of a better race than this last time. He should get things his own way up front though I feel Oh Right is here to be a spoiler. I don’t envisage Pudsey getting caught this time.
baldeagle
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BennyB
Senior Jockey
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
<------Nicky baby is on fire. Has some really nice types coming through.
baldeagle
Conditional
Pudsey House
Thanks Rob saved my day from disaster
Thanks Rob saved my day from disaster
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Likewise, cheers Rob.
Desperate Dan
Senior Jockey
Another good day for our resident wealth-makers
C
CPGagie
Guest
"Pudsey House has a massive chance."
That sole comment meant I was backing it regardless.
Good analysis as well though. Only bet today for me, thanks Rob.'
Well done as well, EC.
That sole comment meant I was backing it regardless.
Good analysis as well though. Only bet today for me, thanks Rob.'Well done as well, EC.
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Wonder if he can complete the 4 timer today at Sthwll, battled on very gamely at Wolver lto to just get the better of Scribe and just 1lb worse off with that horse.
Monzino and Yasir haven't proved they stay this distance so hopefully the jump sired Mr Burbidge can just outbattle Scribe again. Any thoughts chaps.
Southwell 12.20 Yasir Win @ 4.88
Interesting race with Scribe the only runner with C&D form and he comes here 15lb higher than his winning mark here.
There are three runners with surface form who are stepping up in trip, but I don't think the trip will really be an issue as I really can't see likely pacesetter Scribe going off too fast as that would probably help fav Mr Burbidge.
Mr Burbidge is progressing well at present, but although his sire's progeny tend to go on any ground, it's very unusual he's never had a runner on the fibresand and I'm happy to oppose without a run on the surface. Scribe and MB are closely matched on a previous run but it is hard call to predict the finishing position of both today, with the former certain to handle the track, but the latter looks more progressive and likely to want further.
Although Scibe's last 71l defeat over C&D is misleading, I still could not got involved off his mark over C&D.
With nothing rock solid in the field, Med Sea may be the value call at around 12.0, although in running would probably be the best option, held up over C&D for the first time. If they do go slow, it would be no great shock if he got involved, but he got turnover at 11/8, finishing a well beaten 4/4 when trying 16f earlier in the year.
Monzino is 0/20 in C5, never won off anything near this mark and distance does look an issue, even if slowly run. EC flagged this one up when off the right mark and it really looks to be up against it, even with plenty of doubts about the opposition.
Yasir really does look worth chancing stepping up in trips. Previously mentioned the sire's progeny loving the surface, but they also go well at 16f, with Peak Park and Hada Men, the only ones to have gone over the trip winning at marks in the mid 60's.
Yasir strangely runs in snatches and can get outpaced early on but the slower early pace should hopefully help.
Also worth considering he went to Lucinda Russell early this year without running, but they obviously felt he could see out a trip, albeit over hurdles and the mare does produces staying types.
Happy to go along with Yasir seeing out the trip, with my only reservation is taking an early price when he could well trade bigger in the first half mile if he does need some rousting.
Interesting race with Scribe the only runner with C&D form and he comes here 15lb higher than his winning mark here.
There are three runners with surface form who are stepping up in trip, but I don't think the trip will really be an issue as I really can't see likely pacesetter Scribe going off too fast as that would probably help fav Mr Burbidge.
Mr Burbidge is progressing well at present, but although his sire's progeny tend to go on any ground, it's very unusual he's never had a runner on the fibresand and I'm happy to oppose without a run on the surface. Scribe and MB are closely matched on a previous run but it is hard call to predict the finishing position of both today, with the former certain to handle the track, but the latter looks more progressive and likely to want further.
Although Scibe's last 71l defeat over C&D is misleading, I still could not got involved off his mark over C&D.
With nothing rock solid in the field, Med Sea may be the value call at around 12.0, although in running would probably be the best option, held up over C&D for the first time. If they do go slow, it would be no great shock if he got involved, but he got turnover at 11/8, finishing a well beaten 4/4 when trying 16f earlier in the year.
Monzino is 0/20 in C5, never won off anything near this mark and distance does look an issue, even if slowly run. EC flagged this one up when off the right mark and it really looks to be up against it, even with plenty of doubts about the opposition.
Yasir really does look worth chancing stepping up in trips. Previously mentioned the sire's progeny loving the surface, but they also go well at 16f, with Peak Park and Hada Men, the only ones to have gone over the trip winning at marks in the mid 60's.
Yasir strangely runs in snatches and can get outpaced early on but the slower early pace should hopefully help.
Also worth considering he went to Lucinda Russell early this year without running, but they obviously felt he could see out a trip, albeit over hurdles and the mare does produces staying types.
Happy to go along with Yasir seeing out the trip, with my only reservation is taking an early price when he could well trade bigger in the first half mile if he does need some rousting.
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Well i asked for an opinion! Good post Doomster, but in this instance hope you're wrong.
Our posts overlapped SJ.
I've probably been a bit quick to discount MB on the basis I thought it strange the 22yo sire had never had a flat runner on the surface, as he's had very few flat runners at all.
Had a quick look at NH flat races over the surface but that doesn't tell us a lot, 0/4.
I do think he has a turn of foot for a stayer though and this surface tends to suit the ones the wind it up, so I'm still not sure it will suit.
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Good luck Doomster, hope one of us is right!
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