What are you backing Today?

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Grand Vision (1.55) hasn't run since placing in the 2012 Albert Bartlett. Couldn't find the same finish as his previous run as the ground had gone against him.
Reportedly flying at home, the same track on much softer ground should see plenty of improvement, and the current 9/2 is disappearing fast.
 
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Southwell selections.
12.15
Royal Marskell, staying on well over shorter distances on turf on soft and decent 2nd at Lingfield, this C/D should suit, Push Me for the F/C.
12.45
Stand Guard, loves this track, will take a chance on it beating the odds on fav.
13.25
Money for Johnstons horse Layl this am, but can't back a horse with "found nil" twice running at this track! St Ignatious has it all to do from his highest ever rating and only just got up over a furlong further lto, which would seem to rule out Back burner as well. Masterful Acts victories have come over further and may not burn these off over 12fs, which leaves us with the bottom 2 Magica and Returntobrecongill.
2.00
Very open race, couldn't back anything short in this.
Prohibit was fav for the Prix de L'abbaye 2 years ago, bit of a comedown for him! Cowell has 3 runners inc likely fav Silken Express.
For an EW interest i'll go with the winner of this race 2 years ago Even Stevens who wasn't far behind Equitania and Silken Express lto on its 1st run back here for ages and has a 7lb claimer on top today.
 
Alfie Spinner is still well handicapped and the 12.45 at Cheltenham doesn't look as good a race as the London National was last time out.
 
SILKEN EXPRESS 2.00 SOUTHWELL

Silken Express was only beaten a length last time in a race over course and distance that the first three home were drawn 8-12 and 13. Silken Express was drawn in one and is much better drawn today. She is 6lbs better off with Equitania for a head and short head. She finished just under 2ls ahead of Even Stevens who should turn the form around on today’s terms if you take the claimers 7lbs into consideration but he will be in a speed battle. Silken Express won a 0-80 here in May and everyone of the first seven home have come out and placed. Four have won five races. It is the form of the second horse that gives this piece of form a solid look. Demora went on to win twice, the latest off a 12lbs higher mark in a 0-105. She was also beaten 5ls in a Group 3.
Most of these tend to win in their turn but five of them like to make the running which should set this up. It is interesting that Cowell has turned up mob handed in this, probably to keep the weight off the mare’s back. Silken Express can sit just off the pace and get cover and continue her improvement in the hood.

DOUBLE ROSS 2.35 CHELTENHAM

Double Ross looked like a horse ahead of his mark when winning the December Gold Cup over this course and distance. It looks very strong form as he had the first and second from the Paddy Power Gold Cup, the first and second of a 0-150 and the second in a 0-145 all behind him. The top four in the weights of that race had an average OR of 149 compared to 145 today, so in effect he is meeting lesser class horses. 8yo have won half of the last 14 runnings of this race. In fact 11 of the 14 were won by horses aged 8 or 9. Double Ross’s brother, Mr Moonshine, was rated in the 150s when he was an eight year old and he could follow in his hoofprints.
 
Emral Silk hacks up at Catterick on first start since Sue Smith and Jonathan England were punished for schooling him in public in November.

Over to you Harvey.
 
Giant Bolster looks a nice e/w price in the 3m hurdle at Cheltenham running off a mark 14lb below his chase mark at his favourite track. I'm never keen on ex flat horses over 3m so want to take on Whispering Gallery.
 
I like ACKERTAC in the 2:30 at Cheltenham and he's a decent price because of the short priced favourite. A false fav on my speed figures.
 
Thanks Dan, backed it at 13/2 with 365 EW, makes up for the dissapointing efforts earlier, shouldn't have ignored the course form of Masterful Act.
 
Zarkander has to be a bet in these conditions, on this track and with the pull in the weights.
 
MrFrisk said:
I like ACKERTAC in the 2:30 at Cheltenham and he's a decent price because of the short priced favourite. A false fav on my speed figures.
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Like the horse but went up quite a lot for his run behind Rajdhani Express at the Festival.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Southwell selections.
12.15
Royal Marskell, staying on well over shorter distances on turf on soft and decent 2nd at Lingfield, this C/D should suit, Push Me for the F/C.
12.45
Stand Guard, loves this track, will take a chance on it beating the odds on fav.
13.25
Money for Johnstons horse Layl this am, but can't back a horse with "found nil" twice running at this track! St Ignatious has it all to do from his highest ever rating and only just got up over a furlong further lto, which would seem to rule out Back burner as well. Masterful Acts victories have come over further and may not burn these off over 12fs, which leaves us with the bottom 2 Magica and Returntobrecongill.
2.00
Very open race, couldn't back anything short in this.
Prohibit was fav for the Prix de L'abbaye 2 years ago, bit of a comedown for him! Cowell has 3 runners inc likely fav Silken Express.
For an EW interest i'll go with the winner of this race 2 years ago Even Stevens who wasn't far behind Equitania and Silken Express lto on its 1st run back here for ages and has a 7lb claimer on top today.
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Good call on Even Stevens SJ. Form book won the race with Matty's claim. Good spot.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Emral Silk hacks up at Catterick on first start since Sue Smith and Jonathan England were punished for schooling him in public in November.

Over to you Harvey.
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The Stewards held an enquiry into the running and riding of EMRAL SILK, ridden by Jonathan England and trained by Sue Smith, which was settled midfield until leaving the back straight where he became detached, eventually finishing seventh, beaten 42 lengths. They interviewed the rider and the trainer. They also received a report from the Veterinary Officer. The rider stated that his instructions were to sit handy, give EMRAL SILK some light and make the best of his way home. He added that the gelding did not jump well and was flat out. The trainer confirmed these instructions and stated that she was happy with the ride given. Having heard their evidence and viewed recordings of the race the Stewards found the rider in breach of Rule (B)59.2 and the trainer in breach of Rule (C)45.4, in that they were guilty of schooling and conditioning the horse on the racecourse. They suspended the rider for 18 days as follows: Monday 25 November to Saturday 30 November inclusive and Sunday 1 December to Thursday 12 December 2013 inclusive, this being his second offence within a period of twelve to twenty four months. They fined the trainer £3,000 and suspended the horse from running in any race for 40 days from Thursday 14 November to Monday 23 December 2013 inclusive.

Two fingers from Mr Smith
 
3.45 Southwell
A right Donkey Derby and can General Tufto (one of the biggest donkeys on its day), get its 9th C/D win! Has ran 2 crackers at Wolverhampton recently and as this is his course has to have a chance but is the 8fs here too short for him nowadays with those wolver runs over 9fs! Couldn't beat Frosty Friday over C/D last time here and may have to settle for a place behind that horse again. Queen of skies has attracted the money for the in form Appleby yard but can't back a horse btn 30 lengths here lto even though this is 4fs shorter.
 
Well done with Tufto, Simpson. My gosh that horse is still around and winning races!

EPEE CELESTE hit peak form when hacking up in three chases in the spring/summer of 2012, off respective marks of 99,109 and 115. Today (12:40 HUNT) the horse is dropped down to class 5, after disappointing in higher grades. In what looks an average race she can take this if she happened to find her best form.

She's never fallen which I reckon is a good thing as in the back of my head I think a horse needs to get into a good rhythm around Huntingdon, thus if you've never fallen and have a good jumping record you're more likely to get into the rhythm. She likes to front run so hopefully she can get her act together! Could be a decent each way price. I might look at a little back-to-lay to cover my stakes in the event she tires.

Too long since I had a good winner so hoping for a change of luck.
 
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WOLV 6:20 ELECTRIC QATAR 5/1

Should get the better of both George Fenton and Haadeeth on these terms if looking at the CD encounter the three had in early October. Yard in good form.

Bogsnog might not be too far way, but his good run of form has perhaps come to an end.

Powerful Pierre will be lucky to get things fall right today. Looks a false Fav to me. Might be staying on late, but probably a little too late. I had it running to it's mark LTO including the claim that day, so that would leave it a length or two short in todays race.

Lastkingofscotland doesn't look quite good enough at the weights, despite the claim.

The others don't seem to be good enough.

Avonmore Star rated a small danger, but is now a NR, which also makes Electric Qatars draw better statistically.

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LAWRENCE TAYLOR from ATR seems to be thinking the same.....

"ELECTRIC QATAR, who has posted some big numbers over this track and trip in the past, makes some appeal in this 10-runner claiming contest. Granted, the gelding has been finding it hard to finish with his head in front of late, and this is a competitive race of its type, but give me anything like his early tissue odds of 6-1 and I'll definitely be a player in this one".
 
STORMIN EXIT 2.20 AYR

Stormin Exit drops into a grade he has never run in over the larger obstacles. He run well in the Grand Sefton last time when fifth to 139 rated Rebel Rebellion. However, it is his second over 16f here the time before that takes the eye. He was second to Simply Ned in a 0-130. The winner has franked the form by finishing second to 152 rated Fago. He was 7ls ahead of Un Guet Apens who sluiced up on Boxing Day in a 0-120. He had Kealigolane back in fifth who has subsequently won a 0-125. Stormin Exit is 2-7 in handicap chases at Ayr. That improves to 2-3 when James Reveley rides him, 112, and 2-2 over 20f. He won a 20f handicap chase here two years ago on heavy ground carrying 11-12 so the burden shouldn’t trouble the 11yo.

Ultra Du Chatelet is by Network whose progeny have a 29% strike rate on heavy ground. He won a chase at Pau in bottomless ground in 2012. He had a wind operation early last year and has been given time to get over it. He should run well but Lucinda Russell is just 2-26 with horses she hasn’t managed to get a win from in handicap chases at Ayr. He is just 1-13 under rules but has scope.

Ros Castle was never on terms and totally outclassed in a 0-135 last time but his flattering 4l second to Tutchtec the time before reads well as that horse won again off 8lbs higher. He had Zaru well behind him who has since won and placed off 7lbs higher. Whilst he places a lot, his record over 20f reads beaten, 4ls, 9ls, 13ls and 44ls from just four races. He has only ever won over 16f and 17f.

Oil Burner is back on his last winning mark. He is 3lbs better off for being 8ls behind Ros Castle at Carlisle. He has only won going right handed and is 0-9 with just one place racing left handed.

And The Man has pulled up four times and won once in five chases. He was tailed off and pulled up in a 0-115 the other day and this is tougher. That was his first race since March and he should be sharper today. However, if he follows his profile, he has two runs before he wins. He needs a break between races too as he is 0-3, never finishing when returning inside a month.

Wicklow Lad was second in a Grade 2 in his last race in Ireland but he hasn’t shown the same form in the UK. He should turn the tables on Ros Castle on today’s terms from their race at Carlisle. He is back on the mark he won a Grade 3 chase two years ago. His record of 0-15 over 20f and 0-7 on flat tracks means he is passed over.

Alfred Oats is yet to place in seven attempts under rules and the closest he has got is a 17l last of five.

Conclusion: Stormin Exit has been competing in much better races than this. He is 2-3 in 0-125 handicap chases and has never run in a 0-120 or less. The stable have been quiet though Goldie shut down operations for Christmas. He may well take a bit of beating under his ideal conditions.
 
No good yesterday, at all. Could have got closer if not for coming wide off the bend, and if jockey had made more of an effort, but no way would have won. I suspect the slower surface didn't help.

I've ended up looking in the gutter today.

WOLVES 6:30 DANIEL THOMAS caught my eye, and I've been pondering over a bet for age's. The slower surface should help and running off only 47. My concern is that it is now with Ann Stokell, though her 2 winners in the last 5 years have both been at Wolves with older horses, and everything else would suggest a decent run is likely.

I could hang around waiting for the books to open, and maybe have a small EW dabble at 5/1+ (couldn't get serious due to the Yard), or I can switch this thing off, hop in the shower and head off to the local.:)

Decisions, decisions.:whistle:

Anyway, thats the best I've come up with today.
 
....of course, this is where I go out, miss Rob posting some NH runner at 14's, return home pissed to see it's been smashed into 3/1 favourtism, then wins in a canter after I decide the value has gone.

Thats probably a safer bet than Daniel Thomas.
 
Good luck with Daniel Thomas, Chris. I couldn't touch those horses at all TBH, so get to the local.

I got mugged into backing the Rackenback horses on many occasions, then seeing cash available in place column nearly matching the win odds in running. I got the odd winner to convince me to jump on board again, but they simply can't be trusted and I'm amazed the horses are still running when the owner gets a ban, even if it's under a different name.

Apart from On The Cusp, the owner/trainer (whoever it is ?/ Carson combo look more likely the finish last. Without considering all the hype that surrounds the outfit, the horse switching stables and has never won off a break this long, is enough to put me off even if he's a stone better than 12 months ago.

The crazy thing is if you profile just the horse itself, without the connections, most punters would be lumping on.

Grayson to be the next trainer might be worth a bet though.
 
doomster said:
Good luck with Daniel Thomas, Chris. I couldn't touch those horses at all TBH, so get to the local.

I got mugged into backing the Rackenback horses on many occasions, then seeing cash available in place column nearly matching the win odds in running. I got the odd winner to convince me to jump on board again, but they simply can't be trusted and I'm amazed the horses are still running when the owner gets a ban, even if it's under a different name.

Apart from On The Cusp, the owner/trainer (whoever it is ?/ Carson combo look more likely the finish last. Without considering all the hype that surrounds the outfit, the horse switching stables and has never won off a break this long, is enough to put me off even if he's a stone better than 12 months ago.

The crazy thing is if you profile just the horse itself, without the connections, most punters would be lumping on.

Grayson to be the next trainer might be worth a bet though.
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Stephen Arnold took 21 horses from Violet Jordan and sent them to Ann Stokell who until recently only had 9 boxes registered. I think all the horses are leased now, must be a loophole as he still owns them.
 
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