M
marbler
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Nice Colzoss. I see you are a newbie
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What are you backing Today?
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Nice Colzoss. I see you are a newbie
Well an oldie from neigh.
Been most impressed with the tipping on he
re since I found the site I must say
Nothing from me today apart from a throwaway on The Botanist in the 3.45.
Stoute run it from 8-10f, Toby Coles 10-12F, the Bradley as usual had it sprinting.
I'm clueless what it's trip is now, but Shaun Harris has taken it over and stepped it up from 5f to 11f on it's stable debut at Southwell and beaten 24 lths into 9th of 13.
That run was off a 14 month break and that race produced a winner yesterday, who actually finished a further 6 lths behind The Botanist, when stepping up in trip.
No total surprise to see The Botonist improve for step down to 8f, although it's a total leap of faith in dealing with a 47 rated dog.
Stoute run it from 8-10f, Toby Coles 10-12F, the Bradley as usual had it sprinting.
I'm clueless what it's trip is now, but Shaun Harris has taken it over and stepped it up from 5f to 11f on it's stable debut at Southwell and beaten 24 lths into 9th of 13.
That run was off a 14 month break and that race produced a winner yesterday, who actually finished a further 6 lths behind The Botanist, when stepping up in trip.
No total surprise to see The Botonist improve for step down to 8f, although it's a total leap of faith in dealing with a 47 rated dog.
C
CPGagie
Guest
I've got nothing either. I'm actually quite happy about it. It only took a few minutes to realise it's not worth digging any further.
Plenty of time to look at tomorrows decs.
Plenty of time to look at tomorrows decs.
M
marbler
Guest
I applaud that approach Chris, an awfully difficult day to find anything.
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MARCIANO 2.10 SOUTHWELL
There is plenty of pace on in this race with Arabian Flight, Sam Spade and Strong Man all liking to lead and with Piceno and Kung Hei Fat Choi liking to race prominently it should be set up for a closer. Marciano won on soft ground at Chantilly in June before moving to Alan Brown. Brown has done a brilliant job getting the horse to settle and his sixth to Decisiontofollow last time has been franked with the third winning and the sixth, Powerful Pierre winning twice. That was over an unsuitable 6f. The time before over 7f, he was fourth to Eastern Dragon, the second has since won twice, the latest off 7lbs higher and the third has won too. He should pick this lot off in the straight.
SANTO THOMAS 3.30 LEICESTER
Santo Thomas is highly rated by the ratings and he definitely looks one to be interested in today. He won off this mark in May 2012 before being absent for over a year. The second and third in that event both won on their next outing. He has had two comeback runs, but his second to Act Of Kalanisi last time in a 0-125 looks strong with that horse winning again by 8ls off 7lbs higher. He was 7ls clear of the third and 32l clear of the fourth. Down to 0-110 off the same mark he should take a great deal of beating.
Toowoomba is Richard Johnson’s only ride of the day and the thrice raced maiden makes his handicap debut. Johnson and Hobbs are 2-26 at Leicester though they did win with their last runner. Toowoomba was beaten 14ls by 107 rated My Guardian Angel in a maiden hurdle last time and races off 105 on his handicap debut. Hobbs is 17-162 with maidens making their debut in a handicap and it is two years since he saddled a winner, 0-24. Johnson is 7-75 on the handicap debutantes and it is three years since he rode a winner of this kind for the yard.
Kilflora comes from the in form Claire Dyson yard and he won a 0-120 on Boxing Day off 105. That was just his fourth start for Claire so she has clearly improved him as that was his first win for two years. He is only up 2lbs for that effort and if the cheekpieces work again he should run well. Though he has won on soft ground he is 0-8 on heavy and has struggled to get through it in the past.
Vedani is 0-6, never placed over 16f and has never placed in four runs on heavy ground.
Kayfton Pete has placed five times over 16f but he is 0-17 over 16f-16.5f. He is 0-21 in class 4 and 0-5 on soft, never run on heavy.
Scotsbrook Legend is a ten race maiden and the mare has placed once, two runs back when a 2l third in a 0-105. She probably would have won her race before that but for falling at the last, the handicapper thought so as he put her up 6lbs. She has been off over a year. Lycett is 4-34 with horses returning after more than a year off. It was 2010 when the last one went in but only eight have run since and three of them have reached the frame.
Dealing River hasn’t won for over two years and has his fifth start for Caroline Bailey. Both his wins were on good to firm. He was an 8l third off 121 in August 2012 and is undoubtably well handicapped. He is 0-5 on good to soft or soft and has never raced on heavy.
Conclusion: Philip Hobbs won this race with Thunderstorm last year but he was coming into the race off the back of a win. Toowoomba will be well fancied to make a winning start in handicaps but he is up against what could be a well handicapped rival in Santo Thomas. His second to Act Of Kalanisi is probably the best form on offer here. Kilflora is the only recognised front runner in the field and on what will be awful ground Santo Thomas can track the pace and have most of these in trouble as he stays further.
There is plenty of pace on in this race with Arabian Flight, Sam Spade and Strong Man all liking to lead and with Piceno and Kung Hei Fat Choi liking to race prominently it should be set up for a closer. Marciano won on soft ground at Chantilly in June before moving to Alan Brown. Brown has done a brilliant job getting the horse to settle and his sixth to Decisiontofollow last time has been franked with the third winning and the sixth, Powerful Pierre winning twice. That was over an unsuitable 6f. The time before over 7f, he was fourth to Eastern Dragon, the second has since won twice, the latest off 7lbs higher and the third has won too. He should pick this lot off in the straight.
SANTO THOMAS 3.30 LEICESTER
Santo Thomas is highly rated by the ratings and he definitely looks one to be interested in today. He won off this mark in May 2012 before being absent for over a year. The second and third in that event both won on their next outing. He has had two comeback runs, but his second to Act Of Kalanisi last time in a 0-125 looks strong with that horse winning again by 8ls off 7lbs higher. He was 7ls clear of the third and 32l clear of the fourth. Down to 0-110 off the same mark he should take a great deal of beating.
Toowoomba is Richard Johnson’s only ride of the day and the thrice raced maiden makes his handicap debut. Johnson and Hobbs are 2-26 at Leicester though they did win with their last runner. Toowoomba was beaten 14ls by 107 rated My Guardian Angel in a maiden hurdle last time and races off 105 on his handicap debut. Hobbs is 17-162 with maidens making their debut in a handicap and it is two years since he saddled a winner, 0-24. Johnson is 7-75 on the handicap debutantes and it is three years since he rode a winner of this kind for the yard.
Kilflora comes from the in form Claire Dyson yard and he won a 0-120 on Boxing Day off 105. That was just his fourth start for Claire so she has clearly improved him as that was his first win for two years. He is only up 2lbs for that effort and if the cheekpieces work again he should run well. Though he has won on soft ground he is 0-8 on heavy and has struggled to get through it in the past.
Vedani is 0-6, never placed over 16f and has never placed in four runs on heavy ground.
Kayfton Pete has placed five times over 16f but he is 0-17 over 16f-16.5f. He is 0-21 in class 4 and 0-5 on soft, never run on heavy.
Scotsbrook Legend is a ten race maiden and the mare has placed once, two runs back when a 2l third in a 0-105. She probably would have won her race before that but for falling at the last, the handicapper thought so as he put her up 6lbs. She has been off over a year. Lycett is 4-34 with horses returning after more than a year off. It was 2010 when the last one went in but only eight have run since and three of them have reached the frame.
Dealing River hasn’t won for over two years and has his fifth start for Caroline Bailey. Both his wins were on good to firm. He was an 8l third off 121 in August 2012 and is undoubtably well handicapped. He is 0-5 on good to soft or soft and has never raced on heavy.
Conclusion: Philip Hobbs won this race with Thunderstorm last year but he was coming into the race off the back of a win. Toowoomba will be well fancied to make a winning start in handicaps but he is up against what could be a well handicapped rival in Santo Thomas. His second to Act Of Kalanisi is probably the best form on offer here. Kilflora is the only recognised front runner in the field and on what will be awful ground Santo Thomas can track the pace and have most of these in trouble as he stays further.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Not sure of the significance ( if any ) of Freddie Mitchell riding over hurdles in the 12.40pm at Doncaster, then on the AW in the 7.10pm at Kempton tomorrow.
C
CPGagie
Guest
Gone with the two 6F races at Lingfield today.
LING 12:30 SHAMARDYH 3/1+
Ran a decent race behind Royal Birth LTO who was different class, and the shorter trip probably wasn't ideal either. Would have gone really close (or won) if not for clipping heels the time before, and that race has worked out quite well since.
LING 3:10 SMOKETHATTHUNDERS 3/1+
Looks likely to have improved past SEEK THE FAIR LAND after a good clocking LTO. Looks progressive on poly, and the poor Kemp run can be excused. The Jock stats for the yards older horses isn't great, but he knows the horse well enough. The price isn't great though. Bajan Bear shouldn't be too far away either, but suspect will struggle to get the better of Smokethatthunders having watched the LTO replay again.
My original/main bet is an EW double, but have also had singles on them to half stakes.
LING 12:30 SHAMARDYH 3/1+
Ran a decent race behind Royal Birth LTO who was different class, and the shorter trip probably wasn't ideal either. Would have gone really close (or won) if not for clipping heels the time before, and that race has worked out quite well since.
LING 3:10 SMOKETHATTHUNDERS 3/1+
Looks likely to have improved past SEEK THE FAIR LAND after a good clocking LTO. Looks progressive on poly, and the poor Kemp run can be excused. The Jock stats for the yards older horses isn't great, but he knows the horse well enough. The price isn't great though. Bajan Bear shouldn't be too far away either, but suspect will struggle to get the better of Smokethatthunders having watched the LTO replay again.
My original/main bet is an EW double, but have also had singles on them to half stakes.
Odin (7.10) has won twice since they've established his best trip without breaking sweat and, raised only 4lb for the latest, should again take this comfortably. Pace almost guaranteed in amateur rider races, and an extremely capable pilot up.
3/1 best as I write, but likely to go off considerably shorter.
3/1 best as I write, but likely to go off considerably shorter.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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I've just noticed Paul Nicholls has a runner, Silsol, in the same all weather race at 7.10, ridden by his daughter Meg who won her first point to point race recently. Wouldn't be surprised if this is one to give her a first win in the professional game. The horse Silsol is one of Nicholl's French imports who ran recently, second in a novice hurdle at Leicester.
swedish chef
At the Start
Doncaster 12.10 Namibian e/way & r/f/c with Nordic Quest
jft2005
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2.00 Lingfield Maria's Choice each way @ 18-1 BetVictor
A good second to Scottish Glen here in November, and then went on to win two weeks later at Kempton. Clearly didnt handle the track at Southwell last time out, i thik he is incorrectly priced based on that run.
Scottish Glen has since gone on to win again, and then also placed off 83 behind Indian Jack.
The favourite Miguel Grau is in good form. However, his mark of 77 looks high for what he has beaten on his last two runs. Maria's Choice is still well handicapped off 76 in my opinion, and 18-1 is far too big a price.
A good second to Scottish Glen here in November, and then went on to win two weeks later at Kempton. Clearly didnt handle the track at Southwell last time out, i thik he is incorrectly priced based on that run.
Scottish Glen has since gone on to win again, and then also placed off 83 behind Indian Jack.
The favourite Miguel Grau is in good form. However, his mark of 77 looks high for what he has beaten on his last two runs. Maria's Choice is still well handicapped off 76 in my opinion, and 18-1 is far too big a price.
M
marbler
Guest
3.50 Donny; Blue Sea Of Ibrox.
The best bet in that race. Improved markedly with the application of blinkers last time. She'll struggle to find himself any better handicapped. Its a race that typically I wouldn't usually bet or get carried with, but 10/1 is too big on her.
The best bet in that race. Improved markedly with the application of blinkers last time. She'll struggle to find himself any better handicapped. Its a race that typically I wouldn't usually bet or get carried with, but 10/1 is too big on her.
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Lingfield 3.40. One Last Dream. Win @ 7.4
Daneside. Saver @ 22.0
Decent jock on Oliver's Mount but just looks too short.
One Last Dream's jock surprisingly has never had a winner in an apprentice race, but has got winners on board. Recent runs give him a chance.
Daneside has been punting in low grade races at trips too short. Looks totally regressive but worth a pop now back up in trip.
Daneside. Saver @ 22.0
Decent jock on Oliver's Mount but just looks too short.
One Last Dream's jock surprisingly has never had a winner in an apprentice race, but has got winners on board. Recent runs give him a chance.
Daneside has been punting in low grade races at trips too short. Looks totally regressive but worth a pop now back up in trip.
Kempton 6.10. Insolenceofoffice. @ 9/2
The Lee/ Ford combo horse earlier actually ran a cracking race, even though out of the places ( went 1.35ish).
This one looks much stronger IMO. Run two runs back at Southwell looks a strong event with plenty of winners coming out of race and really ran as well as could be expected dropped back to 5f lto.
Does have C&D dating back and really looks a strong bet for me, without weighing up the opposition.
Indian Affair did put up an impressive performance three runs back but failed to reproduce that.
Rutterkin for James Moffat got me interested with his 1st ever traveler to the south.
The Lee/ Ford combo horse earlier actually ran a cracking race, even though out of the places ( went 1.35ish).
This one looks much stronger IMO. Run two runs back at Southwell looks a strong event with plenty of winners coming out of race and really ran as well as could be expected dropped back to 5f lto.
Does have C&D dating back and really looks a strong bet for me, without weighing up the opposition.
Indian Affair did put up an impressive performance three runs back but failed to reproduce that.
Rutterkin for James Moffat got me interested with his 1st ever traveler to the south.
baldeagle
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baldeagle
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was eatin myself
baldeagle
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ITS up to Nicholls to save the day
M
marbler
Guest
CARRIGEEN LECHUGA E W tomorrow in the 2.35 at Catterick.
Good solid run last time against a good field. the winner followed up also rated much higher now, and horses like Sword Fish who finished behind Carrigen are good yardsticks. Trainer bashed in a 25/1 winner with a similar sounding name on Monday at 25/1 in Ireland. The market may inspire even more confidence.
Good solid run last time against a good field. the winner followed up also rated much higher now, and horses like Sword Fish who finished behind Carrigen are good yardsticks. Trainer bashed in a 25/1 winner with a similar sounding name on Monday at 25/1 in Ireland. The market may inspire even more confidence.
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