What are you backing Today?

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wilsonl said:
Newcastle is going to be attritional today but one horse who has perfect race conditions is Dingo Bay in the 2:50.

Twice a course winner in heavy ground, with his best performance coming at todays trip. He is a stone higher in the weights than that day but only 6lbs higher than his last win 3 races ago when he tired during the extra half mile but still hung on.

He was making a race of it against a subsequent 110 rated winner LTO, albeit in receipt of 11lb (when 3lb wrong) and looking booked for 2nd when departing 2 out.

But that race was on quicker ground than he prefers and dropped back 4f on his favoured ground he must go well if over his latest fall.

5/2 won't make you rich but dangers look thin on the ground.
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and dangers were thin on ther ground, great call.:)
 
doomster said:
Lingfield 2.00. Bussa @ 20/1 BOG
Parisian Pyramid. saver @ 8.6

I really didn't want to be getting involved in these Lingfield races, but the price of Bussa has taken my eye.

Presumidio will probably be well supported at 5/1 and I was tempted. Unraced at two, consistent over trip and lightly raced. My problem is the track was riding fast when he won and even if the track rides on the fast side that will also suit Bussa.

My perception was Evans farmed these races at this time of year, but was totally wrong although they do place well.

However, Bussa looks worth an interest returning to this track, were his corse h/cap form reads: 1(53) ,1 (59),2(59).

Returns to the track on a mark 57, which looks a cracking mark considering he probably peaked with a run over 7f at Lingfield off 70, with a decent 5lb claimer riding.

The doubts surrounding the bet are possibly trip on the short side, jockey preference and current form.

There should hopefully be enough pace in this if the likes of Putin and Idol Curiosity takes each other on. Catlin has only just started to get rides again for the trainer and really cannot read much into the fact he rode a winner for him yesterday, so I'd expect Kirby to have the choice until I realised he hasn't done 8-13 for a long time. He has done 9-0, but I'm guessing the weight factor has decided the bookings. I'm happy to take a punt on form improvement, returning to track and having been ridden by a 7lb claimer yet to ride a winner here and had little chance over 5f lto.

Pyrisian Pyramid looks in terminal decline, but his last run held some promise as it was off a lay off and the first run for Fahey. It would be no surprise to see him winning off marks in the 70's, so got to have a saver on him off 63, although he may well be in decline at the age of 8, but worth a chance moving from Morris to Fahey.
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Unlucky Doomster. Thought you had that.
 
I think only Lingfield and maybe Kempton, there were 4 picks on this thread for one race and still didn't manage to bag the winner. If I was bitter, I could argue there were different jockeys on Pariaian Pyramid and Castilo Del Diablo in the following race, but I'd rather do my money than seeing a horse beaten like that. I'm surprised Spencer only got three days for that.


Southwell 3.40. Alborz. 3 pts win @ 7/1

Yasir is the only horse that is proven over the course and may well go in again. I'm still not convinced about his right trip around here and he does come off the bridle alot early on, so I'm going to oppose at the price.

Atalanta Bay initially looks a contender having won over the trip on p/t and out of a staying mare, but the sires only progeny win on surface was over 5f, so a real doubt about it seeing out this C&D.

Painted Tail was beaten 15l on only try on fibresand and also has to be a doubt about getting home.

RP comments about Afro;

AFRO is an intriguing rival onher comeback. She made a winning reappearance last term, which was her only start under Adam Kirby, and looks the type to improve again as a 4yo, while her turf record (on easy ground) suggests she could take well to this surface.
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She does look an obvious contender but sire's progeny struggle on surface with only one winner from 42 attempts, which was at a much shorter distance.

That leaves Alborz who bombed when last tried on this C&D, when 5/5 beaten 42lths at 6/4. I'm prepared to forgive that run, as he was off for 7 months after that run and may have been wrong.

He has a fair maiden run on the surface and his flat form prior to that C&D failure was'nt too bad.

Last two flat runs were ok and comes here 5lb lower than when last here. Sire stats for 3yo+ on the surface reads 30/129= 23% and dam has a had winner here, so quite understandable why they are trying this surface again.
 
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Reblis is the one for me in the 2:50 at Plumpton. Looks a horse to win again after his demolition job here last time over 3M2F.
 
12.40 Sthwll.
Followed two good seconds behind in form Sir Geoffrey here and just touched off at Kempton would expect Major Muscari to go close here. Pearl Noirs 2nd to Borough Boy with 7 lengths back to the 3rd should ensure he makes the frame.
1.10
Looks a competative 6f sprint h'cap and will probably know more about the chance of Borough Boy after the 1st race, but may not be much value either way. Ivestar has 2 recent 2nds but doesn't have much Sthwll experience, would prefer to see All Right Now back here over further so will have an EW interest in the 10 yo Fathom Five who won well over C/D a few runs back and has Shirley Tisdale claiming 5lbs, should make a bold show and could get out IR.
 
Sth 12.40 Imjum River @ 5.4

Only gone small on this, being a HNH race and still not sure were the place to be is on this 5f start at the moment.

IJ seems to have the least negative issues, jock good record for the trainer and certainly handles surface.

Pearl Noir should be close enough stallwise to ensure he doesn't get too detached early on pace wise.
 
Plumpton 12.50 Torero e/way 6/1 - improving profile - has C/D form and being sired by Hernando should relish conditions - good local claiming jockey on board and getting weight from fav.
 
1.40
Hannahs Turn is one of giggsys which will undoutably be Kaboomed if it wins but does it offer any value at 4/5! 10lb higher than last win here and hasn't set the world alight past 2 runs, steps back up in distance but couldn't back it at that price. Interesting horse in this is Greenhead High who is being layed at all rates outwards, has a good record at Sthwll and might have a little bet in case it is off!
 
doomster said:
Sth 12.40 Imjum River @ 5.4

Only gone small on this, being a HNH race and still not sure were the place to be is on this 5f start at the moment.

IJ seems to have the least negative issues, jock good record for the trainer and certainly handles surface.

Pearl Noir should be close enough stallwise to ensure he doesn't get too detached early on pace wise.
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Well done :cool:
 
doomster said:
Sth 12.40 Imjum River @ 5.4

Only gone small on this, being a HNH race and still not sure were the place to be is on this 5f start at the moment.

IJ seems to have the least negative issues, jock good record for the trainer and certainly handles surface.

Pearl Noir should be close enough stallwise to ensure he doesn't get too detached early on pace wise.
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Well done Doomster, didn't lose anything on mine so will let you have that one!:)
 
Quite lucky in the end as I probably would have cancelled bet if ATR had given us more than 10 seconds notice that there were no starting stalls.
 
1.40
Hannahs Turn is one of giggsys which will undoutably be Kaboomed if it wins but does it offer any value at 4/5! 10lb higher than last win here and hasn't set the world alight past 2 runs, steps back up in distance but couldn't back it at that price. Interesting horse in this is Greenhead High who is being layed at all rates outwards, has a good record at Sthwll and might have a little bet in case it is off!
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I hope your wrong SJ. I put it in a multi acca and that's the banker. Got two winners riding on it ( assuming Forest win. How bad are West Ham ? ) and can start looking at trade offs if this goes in.

Not only was Giggs keen on it, I'm sure EC thought it was a mid 80's horse.

I think Birkett is riding really well, but my only real worry is the 1 stall as she looks likely to get boxed by Greenhead High.
 
Thanks SJ, but it was all Giggs and EC.

Just need two short price favs to oblige, but one is a bloody hurdler.
 
Reblis is the one for me in the 2:50 at Plumpton. Looks a horse to win again after his demolition job here last time over 3M2F.
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I only backed this in running @ 8.0 after remembering this post. Had a brilliant day so thought I would chance my arm.

Well done and thanks Marble.
 
I didn't have anything today, should have just followed you guys. Well done.
 
Nice one Doomster, thanks CL and CP.

One I rate for a bet tomorrow is Moreece in the 12:35 at Thurles. 2nd on first hurdle attempt at 100/1 when possibly arrived a bit too soon, I'd put a line through the last run at Leopardstown and think he'll run well tomorrow. A couple of 'hot horses' in there including a Gigginstown one, but I couldn't see one with better novice/maiden hurdle form than his 2nd at Punchestown,. one or two have franked that form ok.
 
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Wolver 3.10 Minstral Lad @ 6/1


ML didn't achieve much when winning a Classified over C&D two runs back, but appeared to step up on that run when 3rd, but hampered twice in a h/cap at Kempton lto.

Still looks fairly treated and although there are a few improvers in the field, the price looks fair to me.

Time Square has the beating of ML, but looks out of form.

Aspell used to be a jockey I would oppose but does seem to be riding much better lately.
 
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