swedish chef
At the Start
Nice price thought that would be fav - well done!!
What are you backing Today?
- Thread starter On The Bridle
- Start date
- Status
Nice price thought that would be fav - well done!!
C
CPGagie
Guest
Doomster, that run over the CD two runs back was OK imo. Ran somewhere between 54 - 56 on the clock and did it easily enough. Those in behind seem to have confirmed that now as well.
However, Final Delivery is too much of a worry for me, as it never runs a bad race at Wolves, and the yard looks like it's just starting to fire. Though the Jockey course SR is pretty poor the CD over a slightly slower Wolves could be ideal and has gone well after a break before. Durack has two in the field also.
Hope it comes good for you anyway, as should run a good race.
I looked at a couple in the latter races, but nothing getting me excited. Don't think I'll be bothering, but will keep digging for a while longer.
However, Final Delivery is too much of a worry for me, as it never runs a bad race at Wolves, and the yard looks like it's just starting to fire. Though the Jockey course SR is pretty poor the CD over a slightly slower Wolves could be ideal and has gone well after a break before. Durack has two in the field also.
Hope it comes good for you anyway, as should run a good race.
I looked at a couple in the latter races, but nothing getting me excited. Don't think I'll be bothering, but will keep digging for a while longer.
Cheers Chris.
Whilst your digging, how do you rate Medam in the 2.10.
When I looked I thought it had a chance, if accepting it had little chance lto, when drawn 13 of 13 at Lingfield. I then noted the jockey had only one winner in last 100 rides and decided to ditch it and watch a movie.
I've come back and checked Teasdales stats a little closer and her stats in apprentice only races are actually ok, but did have a 33/1 in there, so filtered it down to;
App races/ 5/1 or less: 5/23= 22%.
Not too bad, so I've gone from useless jock to maybe not so bad ( Tim Clarke comes out best: 6/14= 43%, but only +£6.98). She has also ridden the horse 11 times with one win, which can be viewed two ways.
Both wins have come over 6f but last two runs over 7f look fair in the context of this race.
I'm not sure why Lastkingofscotland is fav and the Tim Clarke ride, McCoolbananas looks certain to want further.
Iv'e not backed anything yet but Medam looks like a drifter, so I'm considering backing it, with a saver on Danceforgeorgie who looks capable of this mark and should go on p/t.
Thanks if you do get the chance to look.
Whilst your digging, how do you rate Medam in the 2.10.
When I looked I thought it had a chance, if accepting it had little chance lto, when drawn 13 of 13 at Lingfield. I then noted the jockey had only one winner in last 100 rides and decided to ditch it and watch a movie.
I've come back and checked Teasdales stats a little closer and her stats in apprentice only races are actually ok, but did have a 33/1 in there, so filtered it down to;
App races/ 5/1 or less: 5/23= 22%.
Not too bad, so I've gone from useless jock to maybe not so bad ( Tim Clarke comes out best: 6/14= 43%, but only +£6.98). She has also ridden the horse 11 times with one win, which can be viewed two ways.
Both wins have come over 6f but last two runs over 7f look fair in the context of this race.
I'm not sure why Lastkingofscotland is fav and the Tim Clarke ride, McCoolbananas looks certain to want further.
Iv'e not backed anything yet but Medam looks like a drifter, so I'm considering backing it, with a saver on Danceforgeorgie who looks capable of this mark and should go on p/t.
Thanks if you do get the chance to look.
M
marbler
Guest
Last edited:
BennyB
Senior Jockey
WHAT A GOOD NIGHT 2.55 UTTOXETER
What A Good Night won as he pleased two runs back in a 0-95 at Stratford and the handicapper reacted by hiking him 16lbs. If you took Ryan Hatch’s claim into consideration he was running off a 23lbs higher mark last time when he fell in the race won by King Massini. He probably would have won that race and the fact that King Massini has since won a 0-125 off 7lbs higher and a 0-130 off 13lbs higher suggests What A Good Night is well in here off 107. Ryan Hatch is back on taking 7lbs off so he looks very well handicapped. Nigel Twiston Davies is 15-90 in handicap chases at Uttoxeter which improves to 11-27 when in the first two of the betting. It improves again to 10-21 when in the top five of the weights. 3-4 with those that didn’t finish last time.
Black Is Beautiful should come on for his debut run over fences when beaten 23ls by Herdsman. Twiston Davies saddled the second Tullyraine who was 20ls ahead of Black Is Beautiful so he should have a line on him. Lee won his first handicap chase here for six years at the last meeting and won this seven years ago. However, Black Is Beautiful is yet to open his account but he is 8lbs lower than last time.
Dark Glacier was beaten 3.5ls in a 0-110 last time pulling 6ls clear of a previous winner. He is 2-4 on soft ground but hasn’t won over any further than 22f. He should stay. Peter Bowen won this two years ago with Run To Fly. Dark Glacier was quite useful in his youth for Chris Grant but temperament has got the better of him but if he puts it in he should go well.
Bennys Well is 0-6 in class 4 with just one place and off a mark 8lbs higher than his last win he might find this tough. His chases wins were in races with an average OR of 83 and 89 and this is 97 today.
Plum Pudding ( Non Runner) is 4lbs lower than his last win two years ago. However, his two best recent runs were two seconds off a mark of 99 and that’s probably about where he’s at now. There are a few that like to lead here and he will have company up front but he does have conditions to suit. Three of his four wins have come on stiff tracks so this place may well not suit, beaten 87ls on his only run here.
Rocky Bender is still maiden and has to give weight away all round on his third chase start. His best form is on heavy ground. Liam Treadwell is 6-19 for Venetia here.
KIlcascan won over this course and distance off 90 a year ago but is 0-6 in class 4. He can turn the tables on Bennys Well from their meeting in October but that’s the best he can hope for.
Bishophill Jack has shown ability but he has his own ideas about the game and more often than not he throws in the towel. He is 1-15 in class 4 chases compared to 3-3 in class 5. His win in class 4 came in the stewards room.
Noble Witness won at Towcester May off 107 and that was his first win off a mark higher than 99, 1-21. Three of his four wins have come on right handed tracks and he is 0-4 here. Charlie Pogson is 2-24 in handicap chases here.
Bally Sands won a 0-125 off 102 in March and the closest he has got since is 20ls. He could run well off 103 but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Notabotheroneme is 14lbs wrong.
Conclusion: Though this is over 24f there may well be a bit of pace on with Dark Glacier, Bennys Well, Plum Pudding(non runner) and Noble Witness all liking to lead. It could well be attritional. However, if What A Good Night had stood up at Ludlow he wouldn’t be racing in this race today, he probably has a stone in hand at present and the 5yo can pick this exposed lot off with ease.
I think Ive covered them all
Goes again at Southwell today. What do you make of his chances Rob?
The old monkey does it again. Looks like he is loving life back at Moore's yard. Well done Marble, smashing call.
C
CPGagie
Guest
Doomster,
It may not have liked Lingfield, but it wasn't the draw. Only 12 ran not 14, and it was coming out of 13 of 14 originally, which was really stall 11 of 12 as there wasn't a stall for 5 or 12 anymore.
Stall 11 in 12 runner HCP's is statistically good, and improves as you restrict it to more recent times.
======
Ad Vitam is going better now for Brittain it seems (a little bit), which was shown in the 6F race here on 15th Nov as it clocked well for the grade and if you look at what was in behind the form isn't too bad, as plenty have been running OK since then (all things considered).
However, that was the 2nd division of the HCP and Medam was in the first, starting slowly and ROW, running about a length slower than Ad Vitam did in it's race.
Ad Vitam then stepped up to a 0-60 over this CD where it met Lastkingofscotland. The winner of that race won by 5L, so you could say LKOS was in the thick of things. It was getting 1lb from Ad Vitam but beat it 3L. They're off levels today, but Butterfield takes 3lb off Ad Vitam, so a 4lb swing.
LKOS then went and ran over 6F in a 0-75 claiming stakes, where it was poorly in at the weights but stayed on. Interesting that is is entered back here on the 10th, where it wouldn't pick up a penalty for winning this. It comes good at this time of year and despite it's recent finishing positions, would seem to have been trying.
The problem I have with Ad Vitam and Medam, is that the others would seem to hold a class edge. Dance For Georgie could be anything as well. McCoolBananna's does look like it needs further, I agree, but has raced keenly a few times over the 1m141yd trip, so they might try to run them into submission.
It not a race I could get involved in, as it all looks a bit iffy.
It may not have liked Lingfield, but it wasn't the draw. Only 12 ran not 14, and it was coming out of 13 of 14 originally, which was really stall 11 of 12 as there wasn't a stall for 5 or 12 anymore.
Stall 11 in 12 runner HCP's is statistically good, and improves as you restrict it to more recent times.
======
Ad Vitam is going better now for Brittain it seems (a little bit), which was shown in the 6F race here on 15th Nov as it clocked well for the grade and if you look at what was in behind the form isn't too bad, as plenty have been running OK since then (all things considered).
However, that was the 2nd division of the HCP and Medam was in the first, starting slowly and ROW, running about a length slower than Ad Vitam did in it's race.
Ad Vitam then stepped up to a 0-60 over this CD where it met Lastkingofscotland. The winner of that race won by 5L, so you could say LKOS was in the thick of things. It was getting 1lb from Ad Vitam but beat it 3L. They're off levels today, but Butterfield takes 3lb off Ad Vitam, so a 4lb swing.
LKOS then went and ran over 6F in a 0-75 claiming stakes, where it was poorly in at the weights but stayed on. Interesting that is is entered back here on the 10th, where it wouldn't pick up a penalty for winning this. It comes good at this time of year and despite it's recent finishing positions, would seem to have been trying.
The problem I have with Ad Vitam and Medam, is that the others would seem to hold a class edge. Dance For Georgie could be anything as well. McCoolBananna's does look like it needs further, I agree, but has raced keenly a few times over the 1m141yd trip, so they might try to run them into submission.
It not a race I could get involved in, as it all looks a bit iffy.
FOUNTAINS MARY 1.25 SOUTHWELL
Whether Fountains Mary would have beaten Kalamill last time if that horse hadn’t unseated at the last is debatable but she showed great tenacity to wear down previous winner The Rattler O Brien. She has gone up 1lb for that. She was well beaten in a novice hurdle at Towcester before that but that is forgivable as she just didn’t handle the track. It is her second to Carole’s Spirit at Plumpton that is her stand out form. Carole’s Spirit has since won twice including a listed hurdle off 130.Aidan Coleman is 12-50 for the yard which improves to 9-21 when they are in the first two of the betting.
Hopatina has won her last two and steps up in grade. She won a 0-100 last time off 100 and steps up to 0-120 off 8lbs higher. Mulholland is in form but is 1-12 in handicap hurdles here. Michael Byrne is 0-3 for the trainer at Southwell but is 2-2 on the mare. She is 0-4, never placed, in class 4. Both her wins have come on undulating tracks.
Gulf Punch did well to win from where she was at Catterick last time and that form has been franked by the third winning. She is up 6lbs for that win in a 0-110 so she has to improve again today. She is 0-12 when racing against her own sex and 14lbs higher than when winning a 0-105 two runs back. Maguire is 3-5 on the mare but she is 0-10 in fields of 7 or less runners.
Lady Fingers makes her debut in a handicap and hasn’t been sighted in any of her four races. Twiston Davies is 1-18 in handicap hurdles here and is 15-118 with maidens making their debut in a handicap hurdle, 0-5 at Southwell. However, when they are in the first three of the betting his record improves to 10-33 and when ridden by Sam Twiston Davies the record reads 3-8. She could be dangerous.
Fortuna Rose is another maiden who has a second to Okafranca in December 2012. She hasn’t run for over 200 days but she has placed a couple of times when returning after a break of six months or more. Her trainer is 1-52 over the last 18 months with the winner in June 2013. Smith is 0-10 at Southwell.
Conclusion: Fountains Mary has been re-routed here with Taunton falling foul to the weather. She took to the blinkers well last time and if she shows the same resolve on this slower ground she will take a bit of beating. Lady Fingers is a danger given the trainers record with this sort of horse.
Whether Fountains Mary would have beaten Kalamill last time if that horse hadn’t unseated at the last is debatable but she showed great tenacity to wear down previous winner The Rattler O Brien. She has gone up 1lb for that. She was well beaten in a novice hurdle at Towcester before that but that is forgivable as she just didn’t handle the track. It is her second to Carole’s Spirit at Plumpton that is her stand out form. Carole’s Spirit has since won twice including a listed hurdle off 130.Aidan Coleman is 12-50 for the yard which improves to 9-21 when they are in the first two of the betting.
Hopatina has won her last two and steps up in grade. She won a 0-100 last time off 100 and steps up to 0-120 off 8lbs higher. Mulholland is in form but is 1-12 in handicap hurdles here. Michael Byrne is 0-3 for the trainer at Southwell but is 2-2 on the mare. She is 0-4, never placed, in class 4. Both her wins have come on undulating tracks.
Gulf Punch did well to win from where she was at Catterick last time and that form has been franked by the third winning. She is up 6lbs for that win in a 0-110 so she has to improve again today. She is 0-12 when racing against her own sex and 14lbs higher than when winning a 0-105 two runs back. Maguire is 3-5 on the mare but she is 0-10 in fields of 7 or less runners.
Lady Fingers makes her debut in a handicap and hasn’t been sighted in any of her four races. Twiston Davies is 1-18 in handicap hurdles here and is 15-118 with maidens making their debut in a handicap hurdle, 0-5 at Southwell. However, when they are in the first three of the betting his record improves to 10-33 and when ridden by Sam Twiston Davies the record reads 3-8. She could be dangerous.
Fortuna Rose is another maiden who has a second to Okafranca in December 2012. She hasn’t run for over 200 days but she has placed a couple of times when returning after a break of six months or more. Her trainer is 1-52 over the last 18 months with the winner in June 2013. Smith is 0-10 at Southwell.
Conclusion: Fountains Mary has been re-routed here with Taunton falling foul to the weather. She took to the blinkers well last time and if she shows the same resolve on this slower ground she will take a bit of beating. Lady Fingers is a danger given the trainers record with this sort of horse.
Simpson Jersey
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 4, 2012
- Messages
- 1,219
3.40 Wolverhampton.
Impeccability. 11/2
Thought this little horse showed a marked step up in performance for the extra distance lto when splitting D Cantillons This is me and Geeaitch lto over C/D with the rest of the field well spread out. Travelled well throughout the race before kicking on into the turn for the straight and only just got caught inside the final 100m.
This is me had won at Kempton from an 8lb lower mark previously and i think a similar performance will see this homebred horse go very close running against some real slow boats today, have covered in the place market as well.
Impeccability. 11/2
Thought this little horse showed a marked step up in performance for the extra distance lto when splitting D Cantillons This is me and Geeaitch lto over C/D with the rest of the field well spread out. Travelled well throughout the race before kicking on into the turn for the straight and only just got caught inside the final 100m.
This is me had won at Kempton from an 8lb lower mark previously and i think a similar performance will see this homebred horse go very close running against some real slow boats today, have covered in the place market as well.
M
marbler
Guest
Want to mention another one for later on at Thurles, watch out for PROVINCIAL PRIDE in the penultimate race. Running at huge variances in trip but very interesting here and handicapper looks to have given the horse a right chance with a three pound drop in the weights. I'm chuffed with Moreece earlier, trying to play up some of my e/w winnings! Good luck everyone.
Last edited:
Well done with Moreece Marble.
Thanks for the reply Chris.
You make a valid point re: Ad Vitam, as I discounted it as I thought Medam had the better 7f form, even though both had failed to win over the trip.
Having looked at AV, it hard to call his trip so he may well go in, but he and Medam have similar poor profiles, but I'm going to stick with Medam, as she is drifting and may well get a double fig price. I would hope the fact she has ridden the horse 11 times may give her a couple of lbs advantage.
I backed Danceforgeorgie this morning at 4/1, but I probably should have had that as the main bet and not a saver.
Cheers
Thanks for the reply Chris.
You make a valid point re: Ad Vitam, as I discounted it as I thought Medam had the better 7f form, even though both had failed to win over the trip.
Having looked at AV, it hard to call his trip so he may well go in, but he and Medam have similar poor profiles, but I'm going to stick with Medam, as she is drifting and may well get a double fig price. I would hope the fact she has ridden the horse 11 times may give her a couple of lbs advantage.
I backed Danceforgeorgie this morning at 4/1, but I probably should have had that as the main bet and not a saver.
Cheers
M
marbler
Guest
Lapis Blue is the last horse I'm backing today in 4:10 at Wolvers... to hopefully come out nicely still in profit . Much as I was fuming on Saturday about a ride given to an Evans horse... I can't pretend I don't have a good feeling about this one (all things considered). Poor race though and my stake will reflect that. See what happens I suppose.
Last edited:
C
CPGagie
Guest
Great shout, Marble.
I've looked again, and still have no idea why you picked it, but well done.
I've looked again, and still have no idea why you picked it, but well done.
C
CPGagie
Guest
Everyone knows about it.
Good Evans:blink:
That will keep you busy.
Not sure why Choice Of Destiny is top weight here, even thoughi it's a weak race, as it looks the worst horse in the field.
However, the jockey has won 3/7 for stable on 2/3 horses on his first ride.
Worth an interest at double figs just on jock booking or total dao ?
Didn't run too badly really as she pulled hard early and taken back from the front to last, then looked to have a chance after the turn, but faded 1f out.
On a separate issue, I thought Gosden was no longer running anything at Wolver ?
On a separate issue, I thought Gosden was no longer running anything at Wolver ?
Seanyboy01
At the Start
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2013
- Messages
- 82
Anyone else see MILO MAN 12.45 Leicester, and EXCEL BEST 1.35 SOUTHWELL being good things on tuesday? Short prices...
M
marbler
Guest
What Happening gets my vote at Leicester. The second behind Easter Day on his first start in England looks good now. I don't know what went on last time, i don't really care because the odds of reward outweigh the risk that it happens again. I'll feel more positive if it shortens and is supported in the betting as opposed to seeing it drift though.
Last edited:
- Status