That's fine for Slim, Benny; though I'd be more concerned with what I did wrong than congratulating myself that half the Country agreed with me.
What are you backing Today?
- Thread starter On The Bridle
- Start date
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That's fine for Slim, Benny; though I'd be more concerned with what I did wrong than congratulating myself that half the Country agreed with me.
C
CPGagie
Guest
I've just had another look at this race, as the Bookies are opening up at 4/5. I was considering a possible bet at Evens if that became available, so went looking for reasons not to back it.
Fahey has a terrible SR with 3yo's on Lingfields AW.
1-19 in 3yo Non HCP's, and 1 - 50 in 3yo HCP's.
My figures suggest it should take this race easily, but those stats tell a different story.
Just wanted to point that stat out for consideration.
jft2005
Conditional
12.45 Unex Michelangelo 9/2.
Record in Class 6 handicaps is 2-1-2. Last ran in a Class 6, when 2nd to Quintet off the same mark as he runs off today (65). Quintet now rated 70. Peter's Friend was 3rd that day, and won off 66 last week (beating a 70 rated horse). The 5th horse that day (Maakirr) has won twice since, the last of which was off 69. Unex Michelangelo was sent off evens that day. Today's field is of similar quality, and if he can re-produce that run behind Quintet he will win this. 9/2 is a very backable price. One Way Or ANother looks to be the main rival.
Record in Class 6 handicaps is 2-1-2. Last ran in a Class 6, when 2nd to Quintet off the same mark as he runs off today (65). Quintet now rated 70. Peter's Friend was 3rd that day, and won off 66 last week (beating a 70 rated horse). The 5th horse that day (Maakirr) has won twice since, the last of which was off 69. Unex Michelangelo was sent off evens that day. Today's field is of similar quality, and if he can re-produce that run behind Quintet he will win this. 9/2 is a very backable price. One Way Or ANother looks to be the main rival.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
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- 13,884
If it affects your thinking, the first in the back and first in the home straight on the chase course at Plumpton are to be omitted today.
GOODLUKIN LUCY 3.55 SOUTHWELL
Goodlukin Lucy has a decent opportunity to follow up her win here last time. She has improved for the switch to Keith Dalgleish who removed all the headgear and tongue tie. Her record of 2251 in four runs for him looks sound. She has had horses rated in the 60s behind her in those events and meets some very disappointing sorts here. Dalgleish has done well at Southwell this season with four wins from eleven runners. However, that improves when Tom Eaves rides to 4-8. She drops back in distance but her stamina may well play a big part. She had This Is Me well beaten last time who has since come out and won. She had Tobrata back in second who had been second too Rock Of Ages. She had Yasir back in third who has since been second to Mr Burbidge and Afro in better races.
Rancho Montoya is sure to be popular but she looks every bit a herd animal. She does everything right but her herd instinct kicks in when she ranges upsides another horse and she won’t go past. She should have beaten Grandad Mac last time and she should beat him today on revised terms. Every time she has popped her head in front she has stopped. It’s hard to believe she has Dancing Brave as her Grandad but she is a half sister to some other quirky types, I’m Super Too and Hawaana. She will run her race.
Grandad Mac beat Rancho Montoya two runs back and ran with credit the other day when fourth to Stranlow. He was Alan Coogan’s first winner for 18 months and it came with a big slice of luck with Rancho Montoya giving him the race. Grandad Mac has conditions to suit and will run his race.
Omega Omega is a 15 race maiden who was 3.5ls behind Goodlukin Lucy last time. She is 2lbs better off and she may well be suited by the drop back to 12f. However, she couldn’t be picked with any confidence. Her dam has foaled six offspring of which only two of those have won and none at Southwell, 0-4.
LouLou Vuitton is a 15 race maiden. Her second last time to 1-25 shot La Estrella was expected as she was second best in the market of four horses. She is by Needwood Blade whose progeny are best over 5f-7f though 5 have managed to win over 12f from 102 who tried.
Dontpaytheferryman is 5-22 on the all weather, 5-12 at Southwell. That improves to 3-4 over 12f. However, it is three years since he won here and he is on a two year losing run, 16 races. Last win over hurdles. He is 20lbs lower than his last win here and after being beaten 28ls and 33ls on his last two runs here off 65 and 60, maybe the handicapper has given him a chance today off 55. Peter Hiatt could do with a winner as he has gone 33 runners without one stretching back to September and with just 3 winners from his last 100 runners, his looks a yard to avoid.
West End Lad has won 17 of his 102 races and he did win at Nottingham in the summer off 65. He has won three times round here but he has never won over 12f, 0-3. He is 0-7 in the cheekpieces. He did win a seller at Wolverhampton a year ago but it’s four years since he won here.
The Troyster has shown nothing in four races and not one of Spindara’s offspring have won on an artificial surface, 0-18.
Conclusion: They will be finishing like it’s a three mile chase on heavy ground here. If Rancho Montoya showed any of the ability her breeding suggests she should have, she would win this. However, it is going to take a canny ride from Keniry to get her in front at the right time. The race will be run in a group as Grandad Mac looks the likely pacemaker. Goodlukin Lucy should stalk that pace and she should pull out more when Rancho Montoya comes to challenge.
Goodlukin Lucy has a decent opportunity to follow up her win here last time. She has improved for the switch to Keith Dalgleish who removed all the headgear and tongue tie. Her record of 2251 in four runs for him looks sound. She has had horses rated in the 60s behind her in those events and meets some very disappointing sorts here. Dalgleish has done well at Southwell this season with four wins from eleven runners. However, that improves when Tom Eaves rides to 4-8. She drops back in distance but her stamina may well play a big part. She had This Is Me well beaten last time who has since come out and won. She had Tobrata back in second who had been second too Rock Of Ages. She had Yasir back in third who has since been second to Mr Burbidge and Afro in better races.
Rancho Montoya is sure to be popular but she looks every bit a herd animal. She does everything right but her herd instinct kicks in when she ranges upsides another horse and she won’t go past. She should have beaten Grandad Mac last time and she should beat him today on revised terms. Every time she has popped her head in front she has stopped. It’s hard to believe she has Dancing Brave as her Grandad but she is a half sister to some other quirky types, I’m Super Too and Hawaana. She will run her race.
Grandad Mac beat Rancho Montoya two runs back and ran with credit the other day when fourth to Stranlow. He was Alan Coogan’s first winner for 18 months and it came with a big slice of luck with Rancho Montoya giving him the race. Grandad Mac has conditions to suit and will run his race.
Omega Omega is a 15 race maiden who was 3.5ls behind Goodlukin Lucy last time. She is 2lbs better off and she may well be suited by the drop back to 12f. However, she couldn’t be picked with any confidence. Her dam has foaled six offspring of which only two of those have won and none at Southwell, 0-4.
LouLou Vuitton is a 15 race maiden. Her second last time to 1-25 shot La Estrella was expected as she was second best in the market of four horses. She is by Needwood Blade whose progeny are best over 5f-7f though 5 have managed to win over 12f from 102 who tried.
Dontpaytheferryman is 5-22 on the all weather, 5-12 at Southwell. That improves to 3-4 over 12f. However, it is three years since he won here and he is on a two year losing run, 16 races. Last win over hurdles. He is 20lbs lower than his last win here and after being beaten 28ls and 33ls on his last two runs here off 65 and 60, maybe the handicapper has given him a chance today off 55. Peter Hiatt could do with a winner as he has gone 33 runners without one stretching back to September and with just 3 winners from his last 100 runners, his looks a yard to avoid.
West End Lad has won 17 of his 102 races and he did win at Nottingham in the summer off 65. He has won three times round here but he has never won over 12f, 0-3. He is 0-7 in the cheekpieces. He did win a seller at Wolverhampton a year ago but it’s four years since he won here.
The Troyster has shown nothing in four races and not one of Spindara’s offspring have won on an artificial surface, 0-18.
Conclusion: They will be finishing like it’s a three mile chase on heavy ground here. If Rancho Montoya showed any of the ability her breeding suggests she should have, she would win this. However, it is going to take a canny ride from Keniry to get her in front at the right time. The race will be run in a group as Grandad Mac looks the likely pacemaker. Goodlukin Lucy should stalk that pace and she should pull out more when Rancho Montoya comes to challenge.
C
CPGagie
Guest
Well done, Doomster. You could have given me until Christmas to look at that race and I wouldn't have gone near it. Great price as well.
I notice Noble Citizen won the race before, so I can take that out of my notebook now. FFS!
I notice Noble Citizen won the race before, so I can take that out of my notebook now. FFS!
I put a massive fiver on it in running Chris. It's going to be tough race to evaluate. They all went far side and it was more a case of best ride won the race and hard to know how tatting would have finished with a clear run.
He is the best jock though IMO.
It wasn't a total disaster yesterday and sire 4/13= 31% on the track.
C
CPGagie
Guest
After all these years, I've found that button on Raceform.
I usually just look at the AW going descriptions and the distance performances of the pedigree. I was wondering how you guys were looking at specific course stats and presumed it was on the software you use and not mine, I even thought about setting up a query to load up for it.
Nope, this blind fool spots it in 2014 at the bottom of the page. You learn something every day.
I usually just look at the AW going descriptions and the distance performances of the pedigree. I was wondering how you guys were looking at specific course stats and presumed it was on the software you use and not mine, I even thought about setting up a query to load up for it.
Nope, this blind fool spots it in 2014 at the bottom of the page. You learn something every day.
C
CPGagie
Guest
KEMP 6:55 WELSH INLET EW 9/1 (HALF STAKES)
Looks nicely weighted and yard in decent shape. Has gone OK after breaks before and came good at this time last year where it won twice over the CD off 54 and 57. Ran to a similar level last Sept and OCT before flopping LTO. Runs off 53 here which is the lowest mark it's raced off. Also entered back here on the 19th in a 0-55 over 6F, though this looks the easier contest. Draw not ideal, but not too bad for likely running style.
BIRDIE QUEEN ran a touch above it's mark LTO, but the Jockey (even though claiming 7 here) has yet to win a race. That said, would still seem to be the main danger.
TORRES DEL PAINE, MINIMEE, CUSTOM HOUSE, TIJUCA and stablemate SURREY DREAM all rate as dangers for one reason or another, but all have a question or two to answer as well (a few regarding the trip, but also Yard/Jock course stats and a few other things). WELSH INLET seems to have the slightly more solid credentials with the yard in some sort of form now. Far from a confident bet (hence half stakes and EW), but fair chance of a good run.
Looks nicely weighted and yard in decent shape. Has gone OK after breaks before and came good at this time last year where it won twice over the CD off 54 and 57. Ran to a similar level last Sept and OCT before flopping LTO. Runs off 53 here which is the lowest mark it's raced off. Also entered back here on the 19th in a 0-55 over 6F, though this looks the easier contest. Draw not ideal, but not too bad for likely running style.
BIRDIE QUEEN ran a touch above it's mark LTO, but the Jockey (even though claiming 7 here) has yet to win a race. That said, would still seem to be the main danger.
TORRES DEL PAINE, MINIMEE, CUSTOM HOUSE, TIJUCA and stablemate SURREY DREAM all rate as dangers for one reason or another, but all have a question or two to answer as well (a few regarding the trip, but also Yard/Jock course stats and a few other things). WELSH INLET seems to have the slightly more solid credentials with the yard in some sort of form now. Far from a confident bet (hence half stakes and EW), but fair chance of a good run.
I took a look at that race Chris and just came up with a pile of negatives for the whole field.
WI does have a few positives though, but I thought the sensible call was to back a horse with no trip form at the age of eight and a trainer who has failed to get a winner since 2012.
I just thought 25/1 for Ryan Style was a fair price based on it's last run when he reared at the start.
Not sure why they have left off tt, but dropped another 2lb,jockey better than his stats read and worth the 3lb.
He's probably the type who won't go past anything regardless of mark, but the price got the better of me. I will chuck yours into the mix as well.
Good luck
WI does have a few positives though, but I thought the sensible call was to back a horse with no trip form at the age of eight and a trainer who has failed to get a winner since 2012.
I just thought 25/1 for Ryan Style was a fair price based on it's last run when he reared at the start.
Not sure why they have left off tt, but dropped another 2lb,jockey better than his stats read and worth the 3lb.
He's probably the type who won't go past anything regardless of mark, but the price got the better of me. I will chuck yours into the mix as well.
Good luck
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Getting in early to point one out tomorrow
Upetito 3.00 Market Rasen, a Venetia Williams French import,was given entries in the Arkle last season and in this year's Champion Chase and Ryanair.
Upetito 3.00 Market Rasen, a Venetia Williams French import,was given entries in the Arkle last season and in this year's Champion Chase and Ryanair.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
I have backed Ut Majeur Aulmes at Wincanton today (2.50). Impressive last time and I don't think the rise will stop him. Heavy ground is fine and 4-1 looks OK to me each way.
swedish chef
At the Start
I have heard or read good things about all the following horses - so it will be a very good / or very bad day for me?
Ludlow
1.40 Still Believing e/way
2.40 Top Totti
4.10 Foxtail Hill e/way
Mkt Rasen
2.30 Joanne One
4.00 Murtys Delight
Wincanton
3.20 Flaming Charmer (win) & Bathwick Brave r/f/c
Ludlow
1.40 Still Believing e/way
2.40 Top Totti
4.10 Foxtail Hill e/way
Mkt Rasen
2.30 Joanne One
4.00 Murtys Delight
Wincanton
3.20 Flaming Charmer (win) & Bathwick Brave r/f/c
MICS DELIGHT 1.50 WINCANTON
Mics Delight has an excellent record of 5-19 which improves dramatically at this time of year. His record in January and February reads 5-6 with his only defeat a 1l second. He is owned by the sponsors of the entire card and with conditions in his favour, this looks like a target race.
FIRTH OF THE CLYDE 3.00 MARKET RASEN
Malcolm Jefferson has had 28 runners in the last month and 8 have won. However, those that started at 4/1 or less and were ridden by Brian Hughes improved the record to 6-12. Since January 1st their record reads; 311113.
Firth Of The Clyde beat Tahiti Pearl and Alpha One last time and both have franked the form, Tahiti Pearl finishing second twice off marks 3lbs and 5lbs higher and Alpha One was second off the same mark. The fifth home, Granville Island has also won. Previously second to Definite Dream in bottomless ground at Carlisle Firth Of Clyde should go on the heavy. Lightly raced for a 9yo, he looks a typical Jefferson slow burner.
Upetito beat Upsilon Bleu 28ls in an AQPS race when last seen. Upsilon Bleu is rated in the mid 130s now so he could be feasibly handicapped off 129 but he’s been off a long time. Venetia is 3-35 in handicap chases here. She did saddle Mudita Moment to win after 18 months off on his first run for her but she is 0-4, none placed with French Breds. In fact her record of 4-86 with French breds on their UK debut for her is very off putting. In the Ryanair.
Charlie Longsdon is 8-34 in handicap chases at Market Rasen so the chance of Munsaab has to be taken seriously. He has only had two chase starts and showed nothing but he is sure to strip fitter today. Though he has won on soft he has never placed in six runs on heavy ground. He is 0-7 in fields of 12 or less runners.
Flaming Gorge is the only other one with a chance as he has conditions to suit. He is 5lbs higher than his last win, though he is on the same mark when winning a novice for Paul Nicholls. Flaming Gorge has never beaten a horse with a higher rating than him. Fleur Hawes doesn’t have many in her yard but they do run their race.
Conclusion: Firth Of The Clyde is 7lbs higher than his win last time but the exploits of Tahiti Pearl have suggested that won’t be enough to stop him. He has had a nice rest, record when returning between 1-2 months off reads 2261. Jack The Gent and Great Oak will make the pace and he should just be able to hack round at the back for a circuit and pick them off late on.
Mics Delight has an excellent record of 5-19 which improves dramatically at this time of year. His record in January and February reads 5-6 with his only defeat a 1l second. He is owned by the sponsors of the entire card and with conditions in his favour, this looks like a target race.
FIRTH OF THE CLYDE 3.00 MARKET RASEN
Malcolm Jefferson has had 28 runners in the last month and 8 have won. However, those that started at 4/1 or less and were ridden by Brian Hughes improved the record to 6-12. Since January 1st their record reads; 311113.
Firth Of The Clyde beat Tahiti Pearl and Alpha One last time and both have franked the form, Tahiti Pearl finishing second twice off marks 3lbs and 5lbs higher and Alpha One was second off the same mark. The fifth home, Granville Island has also won. Previously second to Definite Dream in bottomless ground at Carlisle Firth Of Clyde should go on the heavy. Lightly raced for a 9yo, he looks a typical Jefferson slow burner.
Upetito beat Upsilon Bleu 28ls in an AQPS race when last seen. Upsilon Bleu is rated in the mid 130s now so he could be feasibly handicapped off 129 but he’s been off a long time. Venetia is 3-35 in handicap chases here. She did saddle Mudita Moment to win after 18 months off on his first run for her but she is 0-4, none placed with French Breds. In fact her record of 4-86 with French breds on their UK debut for her is very off putting. In the Ryanair.
Charlie Longsdon is 8-34 in handicap chases at Market Rasen so the chance of Munsaab has to be taken seriously. He has only had two chase starts and showed nothing but he is sure to strip fitter today. Though he has won on soft he has never placed in six runs on heavy ground. He is 0-7 in fields of 12 or less runners.
Flaming Gorge is the only other one with a chance as he has conditions to suit. He is 5lbs higher than his last win, though he is on the same mark when winning a novice for Paul Nicholls. Flaming Gorge has never beaten a horse with a higher rating than him. Fleur Hawes doesn’t have many in her yard but they do run their race.
Conclusion: Firth Of The Clyde is 7lbs higher than his win last time but the exploits of Tahiti Pearl have suggested that won’t be enough to stop him. He has had a nice rest, record when returning between 1-2 months off reads 2261. Jack The Gent and Great Oak will make the pace and he should just be able to hack round at the back for a circuit and pick them off late on.
C
CPGagie
Guest
Didn't back yours, Rob, but well done anyway. Nice write up as usual.
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Yes well done Rob. Only fly in the ointment was that I backed it with Ladbrokes - for once they laid me a bet but I'd forgotten the bastards have removed my best odds guaranteed concession and I was paid at 2-1!
Have backed Excellent Puck in the next at Wolves.
Have backed Excellent Puck in the next at Wolves.
Wolver 7.00 Aglaonphonus. win @ 30..
High Time Too Saver @ 9.0
Aglaonphonus hasn't got a sexy profile, returning from hurdling, been off loaded and only flat win came in a claimer. He then went on to run on p/t under a penalty and it's possible the race came too soon. Looks a possible improver stepping up in trip and looks over-priced.
High Time Too was supported early on but is on the drift. Has the beating of Excellent Puck and Berlusca on a couple of formlines and last race would not have suited.
Hopefully Modernism and Legendary will make it a decent gallop.
High Time Too Saver @ 9.0
Aglaonphonus hasn't got a sexy profile, returning from hurdling, been off loaded and only flat win came in a claimer. He then went on to run on p/t under a penalty and it's possible the race came too soon. Looks a possible improver stepping up in trip and looks over-priced.
High Time Too was supported early on but is on the drift. Has the beating of Excellent Puck and Berlusca on a couple of formlines and last race would not have suited.
Hopefully Modernism and Legendary will make it a decent gallop.
C
CPGagie
Guest
WOLV 4:30 RED STAR LADY 5/2
WOLV 5:30 DUTCH RIFLE 7/4
EW DOUBLE (HALF STAKES)
It's not like I had to dig deep to find this pair, but have scoured the opposition and feel they both hold solid enough chances in their respective races. The singles didn't interest me, nor did anything else on the AW cards.
WOLV 5:30 DUTCH RIFLE 7/4
EW DOUBLE (HALF STAKES)
It's not like I had to dig deep to find this pair, but have scoured the opposition and feel they both hold solid enough chances in their respective races. The singles didn't interest me, nor did anything else on the AW cards.
baldeagle
Conditional
Dutch Rifle now N/R and Red Star Lady drifting to a value price I suggest adding Akinspirit 8.45 14/1 CD, Dundalk down in grade and below last winning mark
C
CPGagie
Guest
No BOG for this kid. Stuck with an EW at 5/2. I'll not be adding anything else today, good luck with your bet though.
Edited - I'll not be posting on here for a while. I'm finding myself spending too much time on the forum, but I also don't like the thought of Guests and non posters parasitically reading the board.
It's a decision I made a few days ago. If any of the regulars (that I don't know away from here) would like me to email them my thoughts on the odd AW race which I've gone into, then PM me your email address and I'll send them to you.
Good luck.
Edited - I'll not be posting on here for a while. I'm finding myself spending too much time on the forum, but I also don't like the thought of Guests and non posters parasitically reading the board.
It's a decision I made a few days ago. If any of the regulars (that I don't know away from here) would like me to email them my thoughts on the odd AW race which I've gone into, then PM me your email address and I'll send them to you.
Good luck.
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