What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Apterix certainly didn't see it home in the heavy ground; thought he would on breeding. Nevermind, there's always tomorrow! Good performance by the newcomer.
 
Shaun Harris has had 4 winners on the trot since i put up Reality Show last Sunday and i'm loath to desert Medam who won on the same card but that did look a poor race beforehand and an 8lb rise may just catch him out.
Click to expand...

Tough luck SJ. Everything possible went wrong for Medam and jock needs credit for not giving up.
 
Lord Fox, 1.45 Ayr. Each way bet at 4-1.

Plenty of positives here. 2nd over track and trip last time, winner has gone in again since. Underfoot conditions are fine.

Only negative is that he's 7lbs higher, hence the each way. Can't see this not making the frame, and looks the most likely winner to me.

I'm also tempted by McLovin in the previous race, but he has the look of one of those 'eyecatchers' which ends up overbet.
 
Wolv 2:40 Busy Bimbo worth an interest now in this type of handicap company, off a terribly low mark. Ignore the raw form figures from recent runs, the main thing is he is fit and well. Plenty of good placed form, I think he'll go well at a good price.
 
I like Pravada Street in the 5.40 each way at around 10/1, never been out the first 2 at Wolves, think the main dangers are Run It Twice (high draw to overcome) and Smalljohn, but, although he can run well here, it will just depend if he's on a going day or not.
 
In the 15:50 at Ayr have had a bit on Northern Acres at 13/2. Has a chance here if none the worse for his fall LTO.
 
Last edited:
SHOULD I STAY is an interesting contender in the 3:40 at Taunton tomorrow. Keys reasons for making it a selection are the first time cheekpieces, (had trouble completing before, but too early too call the horse an outright rogue), and another attempt over hurdles, having finished a fair fourth last time over a similar trip. Hopefully this one isn't another 50/1 finished-down-the-pack clanger.:D

Gary Moore a very shrewd trainer.
 
Last edited:
marble said:
SHOULD I STAY is an interesting contender in the 3:40 at Taunton tomorrow. Keys reasons for making it a selection are the first time cheekpieces, (had trouble completing before, but too early too call the horse an outright rogue), and another attempt over hurdles, having finished a fair fourth last time over a similar trip. Hopefully this one isn't another 50/1 finished-down-the-pack clanger.:D

Gary Moore a very shrewd trainer.
Click to expand...

One of my notebookers that one marb
I think he could be well handicapped
 
Bookies are annoying man, just tried to get a wedge on and restricted to 11:50 e/w. Shocking.
 
Last edited:
VASTLY 3.20 SOUTHWELL

Thatchmaster will be the jolly and rightly so. His second to Pethers Moon is superb considering that horse has since won in listed company. The third Evangelist has won off 81. However, Thatchmaster was beaten at odds on, on his debut for Johnston and he pulled hard when he was last seen. The gelding operation probably has had the desired effect as he is in a class 3 at the weekend. He is by Street Cry out of a Dynaformer mare so he should handle the surface, it would be a major surprise if he didn’t. Johnston’s record in maidens here last year was impressive between February and April, 7-10. He should win but there is no value in backing him and a better solution may well be backing Vastly.


Vastly should improve for the switch to Southwell. He is a half brother to Spruce who Julia Feilden trained to win four races from six on artificial surfaces, 2-2 at Southwell. And is from the same family as Sail Home whom Julia trained win four on the all weather. His 7th to Havelovewilltravel at Kempton last time didn’t look much but the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th have all come out and won since to give the form a real solid look to it.
Vastly is no doubt up against it at the weights and he may well return for a handicap where he would be of major interest. However, he will be around 2.5 to finish in the first two here and that looks the value.

AL ALFA 4.10 TAUNTON

Al Alfa has been at the head or near the head of the market in better races than this and his second to former stablemate Dare Me last time in a 0-135 looks decent. He just got tapped for toe on his first start over 16f but he stayed on well and his stamina will have these in trouble today. He has only run in 0-115 chases twice, winning and finishing second to Whispering Jack at Kempton. In the last month Hobbs and Johnson have teamed up on 20 occasions on first or second favourites and have won ten. Al Alfa can carry the weight and he looks a good bet to defy it here.


The main danger appears to Lord Of The Dunes. He was beaten 41ls, 8lbs wrong, in a 0-125 on his chasing debut and he should do better on a course he has won before. Though he was beaten just over a length on soft ground on his debut under rules, Lord Of The Dunes has been beaten; 10ls, 24ls, 46ls, 22ls and 41ls on all the other times he has encountered ground good to soft or slower. He should go on the ground being a half brother to Rateable Value but he hasn’t shown he really likes gluepot conditions.

Benny The Swinger won a chase off 69 in November 2012 and hasn’t won since and is still 25lbs above that mark. He often gets placed off marks around 94 and that’s the best he can hope for here.

Conclusion: It would be a surprise if any other horse than the three mentioned win this. Al Alfa likes to make the running and with the free going The Sneezer in the race he may well not get his own way in front. However, he has been leading better horses than this and once The Sneezer has run his race Al Alfa will draw the sting out of the closers given his superior stamina and love of the ground.
 
Strategic Action will run well in 5:50 at Kempton.

Horse stays the trip, won at this track in January last year, dropped big time in weights now, whilst taking his chance here at class 7 level... looks a winner waiting to happen. Surrey Dream will be fancied, but Strategic Action is a good e/w bet. A very good e/w bet!
 
Last edited:
Simpson Jersey said:
Glad to see SSL has gone out to a more realistic price now, must have been one of the non jiggers of the year when last ran here in March. D Shaw has done a terrific job in getting his mark down to 53, was 68 in March but defeats on soft ground and over 11fs are easily excused imo. Hope to see some more concerted money for it nearer the off.
Click to expand...

SSL=Six Silver Lane, eventually ran 4th in that race and has now been dropped to 49 in a class 7, G Baker back on board, backed again last night from 16/1-6/1, dropped back in trip to 7fs which he won over at Laytown in Sept 2012. Interesting that all the horses that finished in front of it in March at Wolver have since won at Class 4 level. Not confident more hopeful!
 
I haven't fancied one like Artemis in the 7.20 at Kempton for a long time. Nice sprint pedigree, and looked nothing out of the ordinary until stepped up to a mile for her handicap debut. She travelled with bangs of enthusiasm, getting to the front and going 1.48 in running before she weakened as her stamina gave out.

She was then turned out in a race she couldn't win, a mile maiden, but again looked much better than a 52-rated horse, going as short as 2.1 before finishing last. Get the videos out as my descriptions won't do how she shaped full justice.

She's currently around 3/1 on betfair, disputing favouritism with Saffire Soung who has already been beaten in 5 handicaps and got the run of things when second off this mark at Lingfield last week and a handicap debutante of Peter Chapple-Hyam's called Female Strategy, who doesn't have the pedigree of a sprinter, made her debut over a mile on heavy ground, and has looked ordinary in a couple of weak AW maidens since.

Like the fact that Artemis comes here off a short break and with Fanning on and a good draw in stall 3, she has absolutely no excuses under these conditions. I'd have her as a 13/8 - 7/4 shot in this race and have got involved accordingly.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
SSL=Six Silver Lane, eventually ran 4th in that race and has now been dropped to 49 in a class 7, G Baker back on board, backed again last night from 16/1-6/1, dropped back in trip to 7fs which he won over at Laytown in Sept 2012. Interesting that all the horses that finished in front of it in March at Wolver have since won at Class 4 level. Not confident more hopeful!
Click to expand...

Felt that Baker got caught napping by an enterprising ride from Spencer, backed into 3/1 fav again.:(
 
davidjohnson said:
I haven't fancied one like Artemis in the 7.20 at Kempton for a long time. Nice sprint pedigree, and looked nothing out of the ordinary until stepped up to a mile for her handicap debut. She travelled with bangs of enthusiasm, getting to the front and going 1.48 in running before she weakened as her stamina gave out.

She was then turned out in a race she couldn't win, a mile maiden, but again looked much better than a 52-rated horse, going as short as 2.1 before finishing last. Get the videos out as my descriptions won't do how she shaped full justice.

She's currently around 3/1 on betfair, disputing favouritism with Saffire Soung who has already been beaten in 5 handicaps and got the run of things when second off this mark at Lingfield last week and a handicap debutante of Peter Chapple-Hyam's called Female Strategy, who doesn't have the pedigree of a sprinter, made her debut over a mile on heavy ground, and has looked ordinary in a couple of weak AW maidens since.

Like the fact that Artemis comes here off a short break and with Fanning on and a good draw in stall 3, she has absolutely no excuses under these conditions. I'd have her as a 13/8 - 7/4 shot in this race and have got involved accordingly.
Click to expand...

Stunning DJ! Followed you in!! :D
 
Well done DJ! Superb. I'm done now until Cheltenham. Need a break :)

Splash Of Ginge looks good for the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday week, looks layed out for a handicap hurdle. If I do back another horse in the next 6 weeks it will be him. :)
 
Last edited:
Educate (5.00 Meyd) improved all last season, and looked a group horse in waiting when carrying 9st 9 to victory in the Cambridgeshire. Runs well fresh (won consolation Lincoln first time up last season) and should be spot-on for this big chance over what is his ideal trip.
12s & 14's is just too big for a horse it's hard to see out of the first 3.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Reality Show-2.30 Kempton.

This horse must have gone wrong before/after winning a seller in Sept 11 and hasn't run much since but Shaun Harris has a knack of doing well with other peoples cast offs and produced it to win over 12fs at Wolver lto and is only 3lbs higher.
Fire in Babylon won over 14fs lto after looking very one paced over 12fs previously. think will find it hard to get away at Kempton over 12fs.
Thane of Cawdor has won over 11fs here but that mat be the limit of its staying powers especially in a strongly run race. Fair Comment has only run once over 12fs lto and his sire doesn't produce winners over further than 9fs! Which just leaves Poste Restante from Simcocks stable but i'd want a stewards enquiry if this wins.
Click to expand...

Think it looks a big price tonight over C/D, jockeys claim almost negates the 6lb penalty, only thing is i can't find any course form for this apprentice and it's a tricky course to ride, hopefully should beat Thane of Cawdor again and is worth an EW bet imo.
 
The assessor has dropped Where's Reiley ,(LIN 1:45), six pounds on A/W for three not so clever runs, but this is a bloody good handicapper when he's right. Whilst his days of winning three races on the bounce are probably over, I fancy him to be in the shake up tomorrow. Waterloo Dock is of interest at the front of the market, but I wouldn't put anyone off Where's Reiley at those prices. The RP assessment of the horse is right, but that 'one good run' was in a higher grade on a seven pound higher mark, as recently as three months ago. I'm supposed to be on a sabbatical.
 
Last edited:
Runswick Royal (3:30 MUSSELBURGH) feels like a horse about to put in his best performance to date since a fine second to L'unique at Aintree last year.

A solid fourth against a bang-in-form opponent in Strongpoint last time out, he's forgiven for losing his way a bit since Aintree. Races like that often knock the stuffing out of young hurdlers.

I'll take the five year old to handsomely reverse the form in what will hopefully lead to a shot at the Cheltenham Festival for his Northumberland trainer Ann Hamilton.

This is the third time they've sent the horse to Musselburgh, it may just be an omen.
Lyvius is the danger were he to progress since beating a nice if not quirky horse in Deep Trouble.
 
Last edited:
Simpson Jersey said:
Kakapuka-2.00 Kempton.

This doesn't look a particularly strong class 5 7f h'cap to me and Kakapuka looks well overpriced at 20/1. A very in and out horse but does have some very good Kempton form notably a couple of years ago when winning a class 4 at 25/1 off 76 and btn a nose by Esprit De Midas at 50/1 off 79.
Runs from 69 today but showed in the summer that still capeable from around this mark when winning off 72 at Epsom. Had a little break in Sept and has run 2 races since leading till inside final furlong at Lingfield. Annabel King has had her last 2 runners placed and i think this horse looks a value EW bet.
Click to expand...

Have to give Kakapuka another chance today from 66, lead till the intersection that day before weakening under a not hard driven ride. That race was probably better than 1st looked with the subsequent performance of the 3rd Afkar and the 1st 4 could be worth following in the short term.
George Baker booked today and hope he can take them along at a steadier pace, record on Kakapuka is 424284

Treadwell also looks a very interesting runner and if J Osborne has got him anywhere near his old form would hack up.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top