What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Legendary tip, Simp! Well done:), I saw your post in the morning, unfortunately I was unconscious all day, sick as a parrot, but I'm sure a few backed the horse.:D
 
Last edited:
Like a few in the 5:00 it is difficult to make a strong form case argument for ROYAL ETIQUETTE, but the horse is back at a track it has won at before, nice low mark, and most importantly is showing as a positive in the market. Worth a try. I think he'll stay.
 
Last edited:
Had a look at the 1st race at Southwell tmr, the Amatuer riders 11f h'cap.

Seem to be few with any real chance in this and the bottom horse Ellies Girl must be one of the worst in training rated 26 and btn nearly 400 lengths in 5 races, think we can rule that one out!
Light the city looks like being fav on the strength of 2 wins over hurdles at Sedgefield and ridden by S brotheron will at least be fit.
Goldmadchen was performing well at this time last year and has dropped 12lbs since but that was for K Dalgleish and hasn't performed anywhere near that level for J Given. Ran a bit better lto behind the in form Fire in Babylon and could get placed.
Kosmina Bay won a little class 5 h'cap hurdle on heavy going at Uttox from a previous winner and wouldn't be a total suprise if it were to win.
Naughtybychoice has had just the one run over this distance btn 12 lengths in a seller and would be a major suprise if good enough here.
Marvo is probably better over shorter and doesn't really have any recent Sthwll form.
Mr Fantastic has had 3 runs back after 2 years off and has run poorly for this jockey inc last over hurdles lto.
Kneesy Earsy Nosey has btn 1 horse home in 3 runs since coming back from nearly 4 years off and can't be considered. This leaves us with
Mister Frosty who won this race 2 years ago when trained by G Prodromou. Has been around a few trainers since but has arrived at Michael Squances stable whilst he is in the middle of a really good spell with 2 winners already this year. Another horse that has had 3 runs back after 18 months off and has run 2 decent races over 12fs here weakening 1f out.
His record over 11fs here is 25313 and this is my selection, would like to get 4/1 for an EW bet but probably have to settle for 100/30.
 
How the hell Mister Frosty went off 6/4 i don't know was 3/1-7/2 last night and Light the City was 6/4, would have backed both if i'd known!
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Have to give Kakapuka another chance today from 66, lead till the intersection that day before weakening under a not hard driven ride. That race was probably better than 1st looked with the subsequent performance of the 3rd Afkar and the 1st 4 could be worth following in the short term.

2 of those 1st 4 run tomorrow at Lingfield and look interesting to me.
The winner Shaolin runs in the 3.05 and was held up at the back before finding some terrific acceleration to go past the entire field inside the final furlong, in marked contrast to its previous run when led. Only raised 4lbs and as won its maiden over C/D extra furlong shouldn't be a problem, G Baker rides again record of 331. Thanks to Lady Cecil having the short priced fav Shaolin is available at 11/2.

The other horse is the 4th Top Offer who ran in Camelots 2000gs for R Charlton after hacking up on its debut. Went rapidly downhill afterwards. Has run 2 good races in January, first over tmrs C/D when 4th to Kyllachy Star btn 2 1/2 lengths gets an 11lbs pull tmr. Was held up towards the rear in Shaolins race and didn't get much room on the inside before running on well. I wouldn't expect the 11/2 to last too long. The Happy Hammer also got hampered in the same race and ran on well after pulling for his head early, could be the danger.
Click to expand...
 
LINGFIELD 4:40 Ostralegus E/W

Won a maiden here at 33/1, since disappointed but has to be given another chance. I can't have any of the rest, everything has something to prove on recent form, 20/1 Ostralaegus..are you having a larf ? :)
 
Last edited:
davidjohnson said:
I haven't fancied one like Artemis in the 7.20 at Kempton for a long time. Nice sprint pedigree, and looked nothing out of the ordinary until stepped up to a mile for her handicap debut. She travelled with bangs of enthusiasm, getting to the front and going 1.48 in running before she weakened as her stamina gave out.

She was then turned out in a race she couldn't win, a mile maiden, but again looked much better than a 52-rated horse, going as short as 2.1 before finishing last. Get the videos out as my descriptions won't do how she shaped full justice.

She's currently around 3/1 on betfair, disputing favouritism with Saffire Soung who has already been beaten in 5 handicaps and got the run of things when second off this mark at Lingfield last week and a handicap debutante of Peter Chapple-Hyam's called Female Strategy, who doesn't have the pedigree of a sprinter, made her debut over a mile on heavy ground, and has looked ordinary in a couple of weak AW maidens since.

Like the fact that Artemis comes here off a short break and with Fanning on and a good draw in stall 3, she has absolutely no excuses under these conditions. I'd have her as a 13/8 - 7/4 shot in this race and have got involved accordingly.
Click to expand...


Out again tonight. Any opinion on the chance of a follow up DJ?
 
The Lucy Wadham trained MARY LE BOW can out run odds of 11/2 in the 7:30 at Kempton tonight. A progressive horse the last twice, may improve a bit for the headgear. Fully entitled to win here and would get my vote against the favourite.
 
Last edited:
3.00 Doncaster, Harry The Viking is well handicapped off 129. I have him noted to look out for in the Kim Muir, however off 129 he is not guaranteed to get a run. If he finishes unplaced today, could ruin his chances of getting a run at the festival. If he wins, a potential 5-6lb penalty would incur & he would still be well treated for the festival.

7-1 each way with VC is a fair each way price.
 
Alnashmy (3.15 Meyd). would've won pulling a cart lto, had he not been checked and switched around the whole field. Equally adept at this distance, his inside draw is a minor worry, but not enough to warrant his current price tag.
 
jft2005 said:
3.00 Doncaster, Harry The Viking is well handicapped off 129. I have him noted to look out for in the Kim Muir, however off 129 he is not guaranteed to get a run. If he finishes unplaced today, could ruin his chances of getting a run at the festival. If he wins, a potential 5-6lb penalty would incur & he would still be well treated for the festival.

7-1 each way with VC is a fair each way price.
Click to expand...

Just like you called it.... Watch out for Harry the Viking in the Kim Muir so!
 
A bit unlucky yesterday with Sohail btn 1 length into 2nd and The Happy Hammer(danger to sel) winning at 10/1.

A couple of tentative selections today for an interest.

Mont Ras-6.15 Meydan. 15/2 EW

One of my favourite horses, you know what you get with this horse, put him over 1m on a LH galloping track on Good-G/F ground and he'll run a good race. Had 2 runs at Meydan on Tafeta now switched to turf, thought he ran on well lto, don't know enough about the opposition to be confident but sure to run a big race 15/2 looks a nice EW price.

Flow Chart 7.30 Wolver 6/1

At a much lower level class 7. Flow Chart won this race last year after a close 3rd in 2012, has a decent C/D record at class6/7 level of 33311336792 on standard going. At class 7 this becomes 312. Peter Grayson seems to have his string running better now inc a 1-2 yesterday and 2 winners and a fair few placed already this year.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
A bit unlucky yesterday with Sohail btn 1 length into 2nd and The Happy Hammer(danger to sel) winning at 10/1.

A couple of tentative selections today for an interest.

Mont Ras-6.15 Meydan. 15/2 EW

One of my favourite horses, you know what you get with this horse, put him over 1m on a LH galloping track on Good-G/F ground and he'll run a good race. Had 2 runs at Meydan on Tafeta now switched to turf, thought he ran on well lto, don't know enough about the opposition to be confident but sure to run a big race 15/2 looks a nice EW price.

Flow Chart 7.30 Wolver 6/1

At a much lower level class 7. Flow Chart won this race last year after a close 3rd in 2012, has a decent C/D record at class6/7 level of 33311336792 on standard going. At class 7 this becomes 312. Peter Grayson seems to have his string running better now inc a 1-2 yesterday and 2 winners and a fair few placed already this year.
Click to expand...

Amazing price difference between industry odds 6/1 and 14/1 betfair for Mont Ras, backed it again at 14s!:lol:
Pity Slade O'hara lost his whip on Flow Chart might have grabbed 3rd.:(
 
Great shout SJ.

A wee bet for me later on Reginald Claude in Wolverhampton's 5:30. Won last time at Lingfield, handicapper can't do much more of a favor than a 2 pound rise. That win seems undervalued based on the current price of 16/1. I've got a good feeling about him, and I've been doing better following my instincts lately. The Irish horse and ClimaxForTackle are two interesting contenders, but at those prices Reginald Claude is woth a small bet.
 
Last edited:
Good luck Marble, RC goes well for a girl and looks fairly treated but one of those horses that need to win w/o knowing they're having a race.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Grace Hull has been rather unlucky here lately 3 2nds over C/D beaten aggregate of 2 1/4 lgths, G Lee takes over from the apprentice and must go close 40/60 win and place looks about right imo.
Click to expand...

Put it up lto, should have stuck with it back at Wolver, never had a bet though so no complaints!:blink:
 
Ten Bob is a decent horse (and bet) in Warwicks 1:35.

Has shown more than enough talent in his limited career so far over hurdles in Ireland. Off the track for a while, but Jonjo has the facilities to get a horse like Ten Bob fit, and a rating of 118 can be exploited today.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top