What are you backing Today?

Status
Not open for further replies.
What do you aw lads think of the ride on Jay Bee Blue just then? Strangled out of the gates, hacking all over them but never put in the race. I wonder if connections missed the fancy prices and decided to wait for another day. One for the notebook methinks.
 
Three for Ludlow.

2:45 Rascal (NAP) has improved since Dan Skelton has applied cheekpieces
Southwell form when he hacked up end of 2014 would be good enough.
However, don't dismiss the form of his last run at Ascot lightly.
The 2nd and 3rd that day have both won since and franked the form really well.
A three furlong shorter test tomorrow and Rascal looks better than everything else in the race.


3:15 Roll The Dice (NB) drops in class and this can make all the difference.
He's ran consistently well all season without getting his neck in front.
Ludlow looks his best chance of doing that as he's won here before.
Looking at his last run behind Firebird Flyer, he was well beaten by Firebird Flyer but Firebird Flyer is rated a stone higher than anything Roll The Dice will come across today.
Roll The Dice will take some beating.


4:15 This see's the return of hurdler Jolly Rodger (E/W) after a near 500 day absense.
He won six hurdle races on the bounce three years ago, at different tracks with different ground conditions, ranging from class 5 to class 3 grade. He showed precious little in his final few outings for Tony Carroll at the end of 2013, but given he's won twice before first time out, he might be worth a bet now he's changed hands to in-form Bernard Llewellyn (who did me a good turn last week! :) ).
Rated a career high of 133 after those successive wins, 115 looks a fair enough place to kick off his career again against this lot.

Marble
 
Last edited:
Off to the beach tomorrow so just having one bet.

Robbie is a horse I like but the handicapper put him up 5lbs after Donnie.

That is simply too much and I can't see him winning off that mark

I reckon that leaves the door wide open for the 14yo Oscar Time to win yet again

Jonjo sends Burton Port and he almost pulled of a miracle with him in the Whitbread
but last time out the horse took the pish out of Richie McLernon and wouldn't go a yard for him
AP might do a lot better but I have severe doubts and even he might struggle to get this horse to concentrate on the job.

The race Reaping Reward won at Musselburgh wasn't a bad race it was a dreadful race.

Aechen has 2 speed dead slow and stop and the rest won't have Sam Waley-Cohen losing any sleep tonight

The 6lbs Oscar Time get from Robbie should be more than enough to see him coast home on his way to another run in the National.

Oscar Time 4/1 with Betfair looks to have only one danger AP McCoy's magic
 
Tanlic said:
Off to the beach tomorrow so just having one bet.

Robbie is a horse I like but the handicapper put him up 5lbs after Donnie.

That is simply too much and I can't see him winning off that mark

I reckon that leaves the door wide open for the 14yo Oscar Time to win yet again

Jonjo sends Burton Port and he almost pulled of a miracle with him in the Whitbread
but last time out the horse took the pish out of Richie McLernon and wouldn't go a yard for him
AP might do a lot better but I have severe doubts and even he might struggle to get this horse to concentrate on the job.

The race Reaping Reward won at Musselburgh wasn't a bad race it was a dreadful race.

Aechen has 2 speed dead slow and stop and the rest won't have Sam Waley-Cohen losing any sleep tonight

The 6lbs Oscar Time get from Robbie should be more than enough to see him coast home on his way to another run in the National.

Oscar Time 4/1 with Betfair looks to have only one danger AP McCoy's magic
Click to expand...

Was just about to post a similar thing Tanlic. Oscar Time may be 14 but arguably has come back as good as ever with a PTP victory, 2 Hunter chase wins and Beecher triumph this season. He also appeared to be enjoying himself when he UR in his other start, at Cheltenham.

He has to give a fair bit of weight to Venetia's at the bottom but he's been carrying 12st+ in some of his victories so the 11st 6lb with SWC's 3lb claim shouldn't bother him at all.

Conditions of the race are perfect for him and while the 4s have gone you can still get 10/3 as he's slightly on the drift this morning having come in overnight.
 
I fancy Oscar Time too, sorry lads!

EC - could I ask what you think of Boboli Gardens at Lingfield today. I fancy it quite strongly but am slightly concerned about drop back in trip. It's also up to class 6 having won class 7s. Looks on the upgrade and potentially ahead of its mark though.
 
BennyB said:
I fancy Oscar Time too, sorry lads!

EC - could I ask what you think of Boboli Gardens at Lingfield today. I fancy it quite strongly but am slightly concerned about drop back in trip. It's also up to class 6 having won class 7s. Looks on the upgrade and potentially ahead of its mark though.
Click to expand...

Last time out it ran about 8lb above its mark..so looks like capable of winning off 64..is now up to 62

so if it wins today will go above what the trainer wants it too imo..so it makes you wonder if they have dropped it back to stop that happening..seems to need the 7f and a trappy 6f here doesn't look ideal.

I don't think its wanted today..there are plenty of 7f races so why would you drop it back to a fast 6f is the question.

trying to make sense of how trainers place horses on the AW is a black art really..look at Black Dave..wtf have they been doing there for instance?

I personally wouldn't back it and hope i'm right..might lose next time as well to knock a couple of lbs off..then back to 7f with 4 or 5lb still in hand.

Lets say they ran it over 7f today..it might win with the couple lb it has in hand,,but if it got beat into 2nd then might go up for that..so you are then fighting to knock 5lb off over the next 3 or 4 runs to get back to having that much in hand...so you might not get a win for 5 runs if you do that

its smarter to lose a couple and then have the 4 or 5 in hand and win again in two races time

thats what i'd do if i trained it anyway
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
Last time out it ran about 8lb above its mark..so looks like capable of winning off 64..is now up to 62

so if it wins today will go above what the trainer wants it too imo..so it makes you wonder if they have dropped it back to stop that happening..seems to need the 7f and a trappy 6f here doesn't look ideal.

I don't think its wanted today..there are plenty of 7f races so why would you drop it back to a fast 6f is the question.

trying to make sense of how trainers place horses on the AW is a black art really..look at Black Dave..wtf have they been doing there for instance?

I personally wouldn't back it and hope i'm right..might lose next time as well to knock a couple of lbs off..then back to 7f with 4 or 5lb still in hand.

Lets say they ran it over 7f today..it might win with the couple lb it has in hand,,but if it got beat into 2nd then might go up for that..so you are then fighting to knock 5lb off over the next 3 or 4 runs to get back to having that much in hand...so you might not get a win for 5 runs if you do that

its smarter to lose a couple and then have the 4 or 5 in hand and win again in two races time

thats what i'd do if i trained it anyway
Click to expand...

Nice reasoning. SPOWARTICUS it is then :)
 
I get Spowarticus as being weighted to best now Ricko...probably hose up

Hoping for better than placings with these..some are starting to look like over the cliff jobs..but just when you think you have overrated them they win...so sticking with the ratings i get these today

2.30 Lingfield

Ghost Train +7..can win off this mark..poorly drawn here but Baker booked after Hayley been riding it. Best price now 7/1. win+place

3.05 Lingfield

Two of these have been on my radar for a while and MM has been a money spinner..i've got Steady Major 13lb superior to Miss Minuty so should have no issue giving it 5lb..won't get rich at the price but should take this comfy.

3.35 Lingfield

Birkdale Boy +6..noted on 12 Jan...step up to 7f is a plus and this one can win off this mark..thrown into a mdn with no chance last time to throw us off the scent possibly. Best price 5/1. win+place.

5.05 Lingfield

Interesting hcap..Elle Shade ran to a 73 FTO so can be expected to improve probably..so 71 is decent mark..but i've got Sample being very well in here on its last run where they went slow but the late sectional shows this one is capable of winning off of 75..only runs off 66 here...step up in trip could show her real level. Might be an over rate by me but with Elle Shad being so short I'll gamble on my figures being right. So Sample is the pick. Best price 11/2. win+place.

7.10 Kempton

Salvatore Fury can win off this mark based on 16 dec run. Best Price 6/1. win+place

7.40 Kempton

Two ahead of their marks here are Roy Rocket + Berwin ..both noted in the same race [26 nov].

Roy Rocket was given a strange race last time when i put it up on here..took to back of field..the pace then slowed and he had a tough task after that..ran very well.

Backing both of these win+place..best odds Roy Rocket 11/1 & Berwin 16/1
 
Last edited:
Thanks guys. Ended up swerving BG and backing Spowarticus each way, so no harm done! Will look out for BG when stepped back up to 7f.
 
As long as Walsh didn't have two enormous chocolate cakes for breakfast and doesn't put up too much OW, Baie Des Iles should go close in the Mares Hurdle at Punchestown (3:10) on her second start for Mullins. Around 13/2 chance at present.
 
Posted by EC1

7.40 Kempton

Two ahead of their marks here are Roy Rocket + Berwin ..both noted in the same race [26 nov].

Roy Rocket was given a strange race last time when i put it up on here..took to back of field..the pace then slowed and he had a tough task after that..ran very well.

Backing both of these win+place..best odds Roy Rocket 11/1 & Berwin 16/1

I'm out playing snooker tonight but have had a look at this race and what would put me off your selections are the jockeys, this is a h@h race and from what i've seen of Paddy Pilley is that he's pretty poor, J Dinsmore has only had the 4 rides but at least has ridden Berwin before.
Think they'll go off at a strong pace here and the 2 that have caught my eye are Overrider who went off to fast lto under Egan but think the form of his victory at Wolverhampton in November reads very well in this class 7, with the winners of 7 races since in behind inc Moulin Rouge 3 races 46/58, Sarlat 2 races 49/57, Lord of the Storm 50/60 and Rock Charm 50/57. Overrider gets in here off just 1lb more, also won off 55 this time last year. Gets the much improved Aaron Jones to ride as well.
The other one i thought had a decent EW chance Focail Mear has just been withdrawn. Good Luck.
 
1.50 Muss.

Arthurs Secret's form on Good ground isn't as good as Astrum's soft form..Astrum can be expected to run better than that soft ground form on this better ground..form on Good+fast on the flat.

so using that logic i think Astrun should be fav..instead AS is 1.7...Astrum is 2.64

Win bet on Astrum

2.00 Sedgefield

I don't see this as a perfect test for Court Dismissed..may get outpaced..had a go on Aristo Plessis at 2.92
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top