Waiting for it for all sorts!!!!!!��
What are you backing Today?
- Thread starter On The Bridle
- Start date
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Waiting for it for all sorts!!!!!!��
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Told you there was something we didn't know...They mixed up the numbers.....should have been 1/4 not 5/4 :lol:
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Pleased for you, jarv.
links781
Journeyman
Really like stiletto here have it in a win double with upswing in Kim Muir
sums my week up
sums my week up
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TheBear
At the Start
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2013
- Messages
- 1,831
Nice run from Tango there, tempered by the fact I put Fingal Bay in the placepot instead of him. Limini was the last leg.
swedish chef
At the Start
Chelmsford 7.50 Hepplewhite - I've told this will win tonight but? Info not strong enough for me to put on will win thread
TheBear
At the Start
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2013
- Messages
- 1,831
Think we could get some big prices going in today. Some I fancy at big odds
2:10 Francis Of Assisi 66/1 - Ferguson may have just given up with the jumps game but if this one can sort his jumping out his form lines read well off a feather weight
2:50 Up For Review 20/1 - Can be forgiven that run at Doncaster when a few from the yard were wrong that day. Smashed Jetstream Jack who is fancied elsewhere today.
5:30 Sizing Codelco 20/1 & Solar Impulse 33/1 - Sizing Codelco is closely matched with Velvet Maker & Rock The World but is double the price. Solar Impulse is a strong trends horse.
I like Modus & Great Field in the county, Childrens List & Mr Mix in the Martin Pipe and can't see On The Fringe being beat.
2:10 Francis Of Assisi 66/1 - Ferguson may have just given up with the jumps game but if this one can sort his jumping out his form lines read well off a feather weight
2:50 Up For Review 20/1 - Can be forgiven that run at Doncaster when a few from the yard were wrong that day. Smashed Jetstream Jack who is fancied elsewhere today.
5:30 Sizing Codelco 20/1 & Solar Impulse 33/1 - Sizing Codelco is closely matched with Velvet Maker & Rock The World but is double the price. Solar Impulse is a strong trends horse.
I like Modus & Great Field in the county, Childrens List & Mr Mix in the Martin Pipe and can't see On The Fringe being beat.
I'll put this here rather than make a new thread, others to follow.
1.30 - Cheltenham - Friday 18th March 2016.
JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo)
Distance: 2 miles 1 furlong on the New Course.
A race for four year old Novice hurdlers, the Triumph hurdle has been a different race since the inception of the Fred winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle back in 2005 so it pays to concentrate on the strongest trends since then.
Trends:
Horses top rated have fared well in this race recently along with horses rated at or above the low 140's. It's maybe not too surprising that ex flat horses do well in this race since there isn't much jumping in the second half of the race. Those from the level rated above 80 are the horses to note. Last time out winners have won a great majority of the renewals even though they often provide less than 50% of the runners. French bred/imports have began to put themselves back on the map in recent years but, even though they've won it in 2 of the last 3 years, the Irish had been infrequent winners prior to that. Horses from the flat will need stamina for this and most that have been successful had run over at least 12 furlongs, the ill-fated Our Conor being an exception in 2013. The introduction of the Fred Winter eleven years ago has removed most of the dead wood from this race and since then nearly all the winners have come from the top four in the betting. However there has only been one winning favourite in the past 14 years.
Trends Summary:
18 of the past 22 winners had won last time out
All the last 11 winners ran between 19 and 55 days ago
No winner in the past two decades had been off the track for more than 55 days.
All the past 11 winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle races
All the past 11 winners had finished in the top three in their last race.
9 of the last 11 winners were by a Group One winning Sire
9 of the last 11 winners were in the first four of the betting.
8 of the last 11 winners had run two or three times over hurdles
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle has featured 3 winners, 2 seconds, a third and a fourth in the past five renewals.
5 Adonis Hurdle winners have doubled up since 1999
French imports have won 4 of the last 7 renewals.
7 of the last 12 winners made their hurdling debut after November.
Respect Nicky Henderson, Alan King and Paul Nicholls
No winner in the past 10 years was rated below 138
Of those to have run on the flat, just one of the last 16 winners had not run over at least 12 furlongs.
Only one winner since 1996 was rated lower than 80 on the flat.
Only one winner in the past three decades had previously run just once over hurdles.
Analysis:
This is not a race to get a handle on easily with much of the field open to varying degrees of improvement. Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Alan King are responsible for 11 of the 15 runners. Paul Nicholls dominated the other Juvenile race this week, the Fred Winter, and he has won this race twice in the past decade. He runs five and, of those, Zubayr is preferred.
Zubayr: Zarkandar made his debut for the yard in the Adonis Hurdle and won that race before winning this on his next start back in 2011. Zubayr treads the same path. He was an expensive purchase but it looked money well spent when he impressively won on his hurdling debut in the aforementioned race at Kempton last month.This will be a whole lot tougher and he will have to bust the stat of just one winner in the past three decades to have won this on their second start over hurdles. However he has been slow to come to hand according to his Trainer and, based on that, there could be significant improvement forthcoming. That win came on G/S ground and his action suggests today's conditions shouldn't pose a problem.The way he made up ground from the rear with ease at Kempton suggests he is a major talent and it's nice to see the stable/owner stay loyal to Nick Schofield who retains the ride having ridden him in the Adonis.
Selection: (outlay - 2 pts)
Zubayr - 2 pts win @ 9/2. (Generally available)
2.10 - Cheltenham - Friday 18th March 2016:
Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1):
The County Hurdle on the final day of the festival is a typically competitive open handicap but it's one in which statistical trends have stood the test of time. What they inevitably point to is the 'type' of horse and it's position in the handicap (weight and/or mark) required to win this race. The strongest trends are:
11 of the last 12 winners were first of second season hurdlers.
All the last 11 winners were rated 128 to 139.
10 of the last 11 winners carried no more than 11-1
All the last 11 winners had achieved a career best RPR of at least 128 on a left handed track.
10 of the last 11 winners had run between 4 and 14 times over hurdles
8 of the last 11 winners had no previous Festival form
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 9 renewals.
7 of the last 22 winners were Novices, including 3 of the last 4. All were rated no higher than 139.
Pay attention to Paul Nicholls (especially Novices, Willie Mullins, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs.
The Boylsports.com Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle have been responsible for 7 of the last 13 winners between them.
Respect the Imperial Cup winner.
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner 4 times in the past 12 years,
Only 3 winners in the past 54 years carried more than 11-2.
The last winner to be prominently ridden was 16 years ago.
Given 20 of the 26 horses are rated 140 and above it not only shows the rising quality of the race but it could be the prelude for the winner busting a few very well established and strong stats.
John Constable: Lacks the experience over hurdles of many of these but he showed significant improvement when coming second in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury when last seen in November. His conqueror, Sternrubin, went on to dead-heat in the Grade Three Ladbroke at Ascot and John Constable meets him on 12 pounds better terms for 4 lengths here. Rated 92 on the flat he was a winner over 13 furlongs on the flat for Aiden O'Brien. That came on good ground so drying conditions are in his favour and he goes well fresh so his near four month absence shouldn't be viewed as a negative.
Modus: This could be a red letter day for Nick Schofield because he also partners Modus in this race. Modus was second in last season's Champion Bumper and foll0wed that by finishing third to Bellshill in the Punchestown equivalent. He won his first two races over hurdles in Novice affairs at Taunton and Newbury, beating the now 145 rated Charmix on the second occasion. He has been beaten twice since but both came on heavy ground. returned to a quicker surface here he still has plenty of untapped potential and a mark of 139 could underestimate him. The yard have won this race three times in the past 10 years and they have three entries this season.
Selections: (outlay - 4 pts)
John Constable - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first 5)
Modus - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first first 5)
2.50 - Cheltenham - Friday 18th March 2015.
Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: Three Miles on the New Course.
Despite reservations, since it's introduction in 2005 the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle has been a good source of top class horses. Three winners have gone on to win at the Festival again, including Bob's Worth. The majority of winners had previous Cheltenham experience and had won at the track. This can be a severe test for a young horse and those to have run over the trip before have fared well in this race. All11 winners of this race had previously run at least three times over hurdles and nine of them had come here on the back of a top two finish in their previous race. This is the kind of race where older Novices can perform well, probably because age brings about strength, and therefore stamina. This has been a decent race for favourite backers, even those at short prices.
Trends Summary:
9 of the 11 winners have been aged 6 or 7.
8 of the 11 winners started in the first five in the betting, four won at less than 2/1.
9 of the 11 winners had contested a race over three miles (including point-to-points)
7 of the 11 winners of this race had run at Cheltenham earlier in the season with five winning.
8 of the 11 winners had won a Pattern race over hurdles
5 of the 11 winners were second season Novices'.
4 winners contested the Classic Novices' hurdle, three doubled up.
4 winners finished in the first three of the Hyde Novices' Hurdle
Both of Jonjo O'Neill's runners have won.
Gigginstown House Stud have owned two winners, a second, a third and a fourth from eight runners
Don't be put off by older Novices'
No winner had raced less than three times over hurdles.
Analysis:
Another difficult puzzle to solve with plenty open to further improvement at the trip. Only two firms are paying quarter the odds first four places for this 20 runner Novice. Barters Hill is an admirable sort and he has guts, tenacity and ability in spades. His task here though is a mighty one with plenty of competition for the lead and reports that he pulled up stiff a couple of days ago. He has been given the all clear but the news won't be music to the ears of supporters.
Unowhatimeanharry: Took his record to 4 from 4 since joining Harry Fry and has improved with each of those starts. They have all come on ground softer than good but his Trainer is of the opinion that he will cope under any conditions. He hasn't had to go to the bottom of the well in winning any of his last four starts and it's highly likely there is more improvement to come. He won a Grade Two Novice over C/D in December and his easy defeat of West Approach carrying top weight in a heavy ground handicap at Exeter when last seen was impressive. He seems to have been rejuvenated by the addition of a tongue tie and that's retained again today. He is older than the typical winner of this race, and is more exposed than most, but he is battle-hardened and, given recent exploits, it may pay to ignore his form prior to joining his current yard. His Dam was very modest but her best form came as an eight year old at the end of her racing career and she acted on fast ground.
Selections: (outlay 2 pts)
Unowhatimeanharry - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 (Betfred, Totesport, 1/4 odds first 4)
1.30 - Cheltenham - Friday 18th March 2016.
JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo)
Distance: 2 miles 1 furlong on the New Course.
A race for four year old Novice hurdlers, the Triumph hurdle has been a different race since the inception of the Fred winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle back in 2005 so it pays to concentrate on the strongest trends since then.
Trends:
Horses top rated have fared well in this race recently along with horses rated at or above the low 140's. It's maybe not too surprising that ex flat horses do well in this race since there isn't much jumping in the second half of the race. Those from the level rated above 80 are the horses to note. Last time out winners have won a great majority of the renewals even though they often provide less than 50% of the runners. French bred/imports have began to put themselves back on the map in recent years but, even though they've won it in 2 of the last 3 years, the Irish had been infrequent winners prior to that. Horses from the flat will need stamina for this and most that have been successful had run over at least 12 furlongs, the ill-fated Our Conor being an exception in 2013. The introduction of the Fred Winter eleven years ago has removed most of the dead wood from this race and since then nearly all the winners have come from the top four in the betting. However there has only been one winning favourite in the past 14 years.
Trends Summary:
18 of the past 22 winners had won last time out
All the last 11 winners ran between 19 and 55 days ago
No winner in the past two decades had been off the track for more than 55 days.
All the past 11 winners had won at least 50% of their hurdle races
All the past 11 winners had finished in the top three in their last race.
9 of the last 11 winners were by a Group One winning Sire
9 of the last 11 winners were in the first four of the betting.
8 of the last 11 winners had run two or three times over hurdles
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle has featured 3 winners, 2 seconds, a third and a fourth in the past five renewals.
5 Adonis Hurdle winners have doubled up since 1999
French imports have won 4 of the last 7 renewals.
7 of the last 12 winners made their hurdling debut after November.
Respect Nicky Henderson, Alan King and Paul Nicholls
No winner in the past 10 years was rated below 138
Of those to have run on the flat, just one of the last 16 winners had not run over at least 12 furlongs.
Only one winner since 1996 was rated lower than 80 on the flat.
Only one winner in the past three decades had previously run just once over hurdles.
Analysis:
This is not a race to get a handle on easily with much of the field open to varying degrees of improvement. Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Alan King are responsible for 11 of the 15 runners. Paul Nicholls dominated the other Juvenile race this week, the Fred Winter, and he has won this race twice in the past decade. He runs five and, of those, Zubayr is preferred.
Zubayr: Zarkandar made his debut for the yard in the Adonis Hurdle and won that race before winning this on his next start back in 2011. Zubayr treads the same path. He was an expensive purchase but it looked money well spent when he impressively won on his hurdling debut in the aforementioned race at Kempton last month.This will be a whole lot tougher and he will have to bust the stat of just one winner in the past three decades to have won this on their second start over hurdles. However he has been slow to come to hand according to his Trainer and, based on that, there could be significant improvement forthcoming. That win came on G/S ground and his action suggests today's conditions shouldn't pose a problem.The way he made up ground from the rear with ease at Kempton suggests he is a major talent and it's nice to see the stable/owner stay loyal to Nick Schofield who retains the ride having ridden him in the Adonis.
Selection: (outlay - 2 pts)
Zubayr - 2 pts win @ 9/2. (Generally available)
2.10 - Cheltenham - Friday 18th March 2016:
Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1):
The County Hurdle on the final day of the festival is a typically competitive open handicap but it's one in which statistical trends have stood the test of time. What they inevitably point to is the 'type' of horse and it's position in the handicap (weight and/or mark) required to win this race. The strongest trends are:
11 of the last 12 winners were first of second season hurdlers.
All the last 11 winners were rated 128 to 139.
10 of the last 11 winners carried no more than 11-1
All the last 11 winners had achieved a career best RPR of at least 128 on a left handed track.
10 of the last 11 winners had run between 4 and 14 times over hurdles
8 of the last 11 winners had no previous Festival form
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 9 renewals.
7 of the last 22 winners were Novices, including 3 of the last 4. All were rated no higher than 139.
Pay attention to Paul Nicholls (especially Novices, Willie Mullins, Tony Martin and Philip Hobbs.
The Boylsports.com Hurdle and the Betfair Hurdle have been responsible for 7 of the last 13 winners between them.
Respect the Imperial Cup winner.
Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner 4 times in the past 12 years,
Only 3 winners in the past 54 years carried more than 11-2.
The last winner to be prominently ridden was 16 years ago.
Given 20 of the 26 horses are rated 140 and above it not only shows the rising quality of the race but it could be the prelude for the winner busting a few very well established and strong stats.
John Constable: Lacks the experience over hurdles of many of these but he showed significant improvement when coming second in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury when last seen in November. His conqueror, Sternrubin, went on to dead-heat in the Grade Three Ladbroke at Ascot and John Constable meets him on 12 pounds better terms for 4 lengths here. Rated 92 on the flat he was a winner over 13 furlongs on the flat for Aiden O'Brien. That came on good ground so drying conditions are in his favour and he goes well fresh so his near four month absence shouldn't be viewed as a negative.
Modus: This could be a red letter day for Nick Schofield because he also partners Modus in this race. Modus was second in last season's Champion Bumper and foll0wed that by finishing third to Bellshill in the Punchestown equivalent. He won his first two races over hurdles in Novice affairs at Taunton and Newbury, beating the now 145 rated Charmix on the second occasion. He has been beaten twice since but both came on heavy ground. returned to a quicker surface here he still has plenty of untapped potential and a mark of 139 could underestimate him. The yard have won this race three times in the past 10 years and they have three entries this season.
Selections: (outlay - 4 pts)
John Constable - 1 pt e/w @ 14/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first 5)
Modus - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1. (Generally available, 1/4 odds first first 5)
2.50 - Cheltenham - Friday 18th March 2015.
Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: Three Miles on the New Course.
Despite reservations, since it's introduction in 2005 the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle has been a good source of top class horses. Three winners have gone on to win at the Festival again, including Bob's Worth. The majority of winners had previous Cheltenham experience and had won at the track. This can be a severe test for a young horse and those to have run over the trip before have fared well in this race. All11 winners of this race had previously run at least three times over hurdles and nine of them had come here on the back of a top two finish in their previous race. This is the kind of race where older Novices can perform well, probably because age brings about strength, and therefore stamina. This has been a decent race for favourite backers, even those at short prices.
Trends Summary:
9 of the 11 winners have been aged 6 or 7.
8 of the 11 winners started in the first five in the betting, four won at less than 2/1.
9 of the 11 winners had contested a race over three miles (including point-to-points)
7 of the 11 winners of this race had run at Cheltenham earlier in the season with five winning.
8 of the 11 winners had won a Pattern race over hurdles
5 of the 11 winners were second season Novices'.
4 winners contested the Classic Novices' hurdle, three doubled up.
4 winners finished in the first three of the Hyde Novices' Hurdle
Both of Jonjo O'Neill's runners have won.
Gigginstown House Stud have owned two winners, a second, a third and a fourth from eight runners
Don't be put off by older Novices'
No winner had raced less than three times over hurdles.
Analysis:
Another difficult puzzle to solve with plenty open to further improvement at the trip. Only two firms are paying quarter the odds first four places for this 20 runner Novice. Barters Hill is an admirable sort and he has guts, tenacity and ability in spades. His task here though is a mighty one with plenty of competition for the lead and reports that he pulled up stiff a couple of days ago. He has been given the all clear but the news won't be music to the ears of supporters.
Unowhatimeanharry: Took his record to 4 from 4 since joining Harry Fry and has improved with each of those starts. They have all come on ground softer than good but his Trainer is of the opinion that he will cope under any conditions. He hasn't had to go to the bottom of the well in winning any of his last four starts and it's highly likely there is more improvement to come. He won a Grade Two Novice over C/D in December and his easy defeat of West Approach carrying top weight in a heavy ground handicap at Exeter when last seen was impressive. He seems to have been rejuvenated by the addition of a tongue tie and that's retained again today. He is older than the typical winner of this race, and is more exposed than most, but he is battle-hardened and, given recent exploits, it may pay to ignore his form prior to joining his current yard. His Dam was very modest but her best form came as an eight year old at the end of her racing career and she acted on fast ground.
Selections: (outlay 2 pts)
Unowhatimeanharry - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 (Betfred, Totesport, 1/4 odds first 4)
3.30 - Cheltenham - Friday 18th March 2016.
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1)
Disatance: 3 miles 2 and a half furlongs on the New Course.
Trends:
14 of the last 16 winners ran in either the King VI Chase or the Lexus Chase.
12 of the last 24 renewals have been won by second season Chasers from low representation.
13 of the last 15 winners won or finished second last time out.
11 of the last 15 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before.
13 of the last 15 winners were in the first three in the betting.
9 of the last 14 winners had not run in the same Calendar year.
9 of the last 16 winners started off life in Irish points (although 3 of the last 7 winners started off in France)
10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
10 of the last 11 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season.
9 of the last 11 winners had run between 5 and 11 times over fences.
9 of the last 11 winners had won a Graded Chase that season.
9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 3 miles.
Nearly 50% of Paul Nicholls' 38 entries have finished in the first four.
No horse has used the Gold Cup to win their first Grade One in the past 15 years.
There has been no winner older than ten since 1969.
Only 2 of the last 17 winners were not rated 166+
Only one winner since 1983 had finished placed the previous season.
Coneygree became the first Novice to win this race since 1974 when successful last season.
This century 65 horses have run on heavy ground in their Gold Cup season and none went on to win this race.
Analysis:
Only nine runners line up for this season's renewal. It would be a shock if O'Faolains Boy, On His Own, Irish Cavalier or Carlingford Lough were to prevail and this looks between Smad Place, Don Cossack, Don Poli, Cue Card and Djakadam.
Smad Place: Eighth in this race last season but he seems to have re-invented himself since he has been allowed to stride. Front running has seen him win two of his last three starts, producing career best efforts on both occasions. In between beating Theatre Guide by 12 lengths in the Hennessy and Many Clouds by the same distance in a Grade Two Chase here over an extended 25 furlongs, he was beaten when ridden more conservatively in the King George at Kempton. Seven of his eight victories have come on G/S ground or slower but he does have a win on good ground to his name and conditions today shouldn't pose a problem. The absence of Road To Riches takes away some of the pace pressure but O'Faolains Boy and On His Own have been known to front run and they could prove troublesome if they decide to do so again. Bold jumper who hasn't parted with his jockey in eleven starts since falling on his Chase debut. He will expose any frailties in the jumping department of the opposition but he may lack the ability of some of them.
Cue Card: Used to be viewed as a doubtful stayer but he has looked a completely different horse since an epiglottis operation. He outstayed Vautour in the King George at Kempton in December to take his record to 3 from 3 this season, improving with each outing and posting a lifetime best last time out. Seems to be on very good terms with himself and his preparations this time round have gone smoothly. Drying conditions won't pose a problem and he has only parted with his jockey (second start over fences) once in 21 starts as a Chaser. Stalks the pace and could be well placed when they go for home and recent evidence suggests he has every chance of seeing out the trip. Whether he can do it as effectively as some of his rival remains to be seen. Seems to have struck up a good relationship with Paddy Brennan and, although only one horse from 147 entries has won this race at 10 years old or older, he has never been better and could be the second to do so.
Djakadam: Runner up in last season's race but you have to go back to 1999 to find the last horse who won this race after failing on their first attempt. He comes into this race on the back of a fall and he fell in the JLT here in 2014. Tends to land steeply over his fences and that could pose a problem when the pace quickens but he proved last season that he is capable of high class form here. A year on he is now a seven year old with just seven starts to his name so he could still be open to plenty of improvement. The absence of Vautous means he now has the assistance of Ruby Walsh and that won't do any harm to his chances. Likely to be held up so he will not involved in any pace duels at the head of affairs. He handles good ground but that may put pressure on him to jump at pace. A clear round should see him seriously involved.
Don Cossack: Fell here in the RSA in 2014 but produced, a then, lifetime best to finish third in the Ryanair here last year. Fell at the second last in the King George in December when he had just past Cue Card. Arguably would've won that race and he has since won a four runner Grade Two race over 20 furlongs at long odds on. His seven length defeat of Djakadam in last season's Punchestown Gold Cup shows he has the ability to win this and he has won three of his five completed starts over trips of 23 furlongs or greater. He is versatile regarding ground conditions and deserves his place at the head of the market. Yet to race over this far but looks a stout stayer and represents a Trainer whose horses have nearly all run well (two wins) here this week. Won all five completed starts since his run here last year
Don Poli: Attempts to win this for the first time for his imperious Trainer. A winner of 5 of his 6 starts over fences he arrives here on the back of a narrow defeat of First Lieutenant at Leopardstown in heavy ground. he didn't impress there and he will need to do whole better if he is win this. Won the Martin Pipe over hurdles here in 2014 and retruned to with the RSA Chase here last season. Both of those came on good ground so he should handle conditions here, although the faster ground may mean this field doesn't come back to him. There is a doubt whether he has enough pace for a race of this nature and Bryan Cooper has deserted him in favour of Don Cossack. Only fifth best on Official ratings and, although the trip may bring about further improvement, he has plenty to find with some of these.
Selection: (outlay 2 pts)
Cue Card - 2 pts win at 4/1 (Generally available)
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1)
Disatance: 3 miles 2 and a half furlongs on the New Course.
Trends:
14 of the last 16 winners ran in either the King VI Chase or the Lexus Chase.
12 of the last 24 renewals have been won by second season Chasers from low representation.
13 of the last 15 winners won or finished second last time out.
11 of the last 15 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before.
13 of the last 15 winners were in the first three in the betting.
9 of the last 14 winners had not run in the same Calendar year.
9 of the last 16 winners started off life in Irish points (although 3 of the last 7 winners started off in France)
10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 7 and 9.
10 of the last 11 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season.
9 of the last 11 winners had run between 5 and 11 times over fences.
9 of the last 11 winners had won a Graded Chase that season.
9 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 3 miles.
Nearly 50% of Paul Nicholls' 38 entries have finished in the first four.
No horse has used the Gold Cup to win their first Grade One in the past 15 years.
There has been no winner older than ten since 1969.
Only 2 of the last 17 winners were not rated 166+
Only one winner since 1983 had finished placed the previous season.
Coneygree became the first Novice to win this race since 1974 when successful last season.
This century 65 horses have run on heavy ground in their Gold Cup season and none went on to win this race.
Analysis:
Only nine runners line up for this season's renewal. It would be a shock if O'Faolains Boy, On His Own, Irish Cavalier or Carlingford Lough were to prevail and this looks between Smad Place, Don Cossack, Don Poli, Cue Card and Djakadam.
Smad Place: Eighth in this race last season but he seems to have re-invented himself since he has been allowed to stride. Front running has seen him win two of his last three starts, producing career best efforts on both occasions. In between beating Theatre Guide by 12 lengths in the Hennessy and Many Clouds by the same distance in a Grade Two Chase here over an extended 25 furlongs, he was beaten when ridden more conservatively in the King George at Kempton. Seven of his eight victories have come on G/S ground or slower but he does have a win on good ground to his name and conditions today shouldn't pose a problem. The absence of Road To Riches takes away some of the pace pressure but O'Faolains Boy and On His Own have been known to front run and they could prove troublesome if they decide to do so again. Bold jumper who hasn't parted with his jockey in eleven starts since falling on his Chase debut. He will expose any frailties in the jumping department of the opposition but he may lack the ability of some of them.
Cue Card: Used to be viewed as a doubtful stayer but he has looked a completely different horse since an epiglottis operation. He outstayed Vautour in the King George at Kempton in December to take his record to 3 from 3 this season, improving with each outing and posting a lifetime best last time out. Seems to be on very good terms with himself and his preparations this time round have gone smoothly. Drying conditions won't pose a problem and he has only parted with his jockey (second start over fences) once in 21 starts as a Chaser. Stalks the pace and could be well placed when they go for home and recent evidence suggests he has every chance of seeing out the trip. Whether he can do it as effectively as some of his rival remains to be seen. Seems to have struck up a good relationship with Paddy Brennan and, although only one horse from 147 entries has won this race at 10 years old or older, he has never been better and could be the second to do so.
Djakadam: Runner up in last season's race but you have to go back to 1999 to find the last horse who won this race after failing on their first attempt. He comes into this race on the back of a fall and he fell in the JLT here in 2014. Tends to land steeply over his fences and that could pose a problem when the pace quickens but he proved last season that he is capable of high class form here. A year on he is now a seven year old with just seven starts to his name so he could still be open to plenty of improvement. The absence of Vautous means he now has the assistance of Ruby Walsh and that won't do any harm to his chances. Likely to be held up so he will not involved in any pace duels at the head of affairs. He handles good ground but that may put pressure on him to jump at pace. A clear round should see him seriously involved.
Don Cossack: Fell here in the RSA in 2014 but produced, a then, lifetime best to finish third in the Ryanair here last year. Fell at the second last in the King George in December when he had just past Cue Card. Arguably would've won that race and he has since won a four runner Grade Two race over 20 furlongs at long odds on. His seven length defeat of Djakadam in last season's Punchestown Gold Cup shows he has the ability to win this and he has won three of his five completed starts over trips of 23 furlongs or greater. He is versatile regarding ground conditions and deserves his place at the head of the market. Yet to race over this far but looks a stout stayer and represents a Trainer whose horses have nearly all run well (two wins) here this week. Won all five completed starts since his run here last year
Don Poli: Attempts to win this for the first time for his imperious Trainer. A winner of 5 of his 6 starts over fences he arrives here on the back of a narrow defeat of First Lieutenant at Leopardstown in heavy ground. he didn't impress there and he will need to do whole better if he is win this. Won the Martin Pipe over hurdles here in 2014 and retruned to with the RSA Chase here last season. Both of those came on good ground so he should handle conditions here, although the faster ground may mean this field doesn't come back to him. There is a doubt whether he has enough pace for a race of this nature and Bryan Cooper has deserted him in favour of Don Cossack. Only fifth best on Official ratings and, although the trip may bring about further improvement, he has plenty to find with some of these.
Selection: (outlay 2 pts)
Cue Card - 2 pts win at 4/1 (Generally available)
Enjoyed that one. Saved my week.
TheBear
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What a way to finish off a fantastic festival. A 33/1 winner storming up the hill!
Tiny Clanger
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- Jan 23, 2012
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Was on that one too Bear, after an so-so festival for me I was clearing out the account to round numbers, normally a tenner ew on outsiders, I put £5.89 ew on it ffs - still the £255 put me in the black over the week 
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Had a couple of each way pokes on Cogry and Golden Chieftain in the Midlands National.
Tiny Clanger
At the Start
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Top bombing Martin, was with you on Firebird Flyer there !
Tiny Clanger
At the Start
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- Jan 23, 2012
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feel for you there tiggers
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
That's racing, had great week though.
After-timing here but stuck a free tenner from 888sport's offer (free bet for a loser in the triumph) on Firebird. Shame for the Tizzard horse who surely had it in the bag
Bad luck Tiggers
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Bad luck Tiggers
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Last edited:
fonz
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That's some top tipping Marb
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