What are you backing Today?

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3.55 Market Rasen Mont Royale
4.15 Ffos Las Pobbles Bay


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Justatenner - 4.10 Exeter

This race caught my eye because of the presence of Miss Estela. Bred by my friend and next-door neighbour she looked a world-beater in bumpers and was sold to Roger Brookhouse for £60k having won a listed contest at Cheltenham. However, since then she's been massively disappointing over hurdles, being sent off favourite on a regular basis but failing to get her head in front, or deliver on her earlier promise.

I reckon she could be a false favourite again today and I'm looking to oppose her. Justatenner won well last time on handicap debut and would be my selection against the mare.
 
BennyB said:
Justatenner - 4.10 Exeter

This race caught my eye because of the presence of Miss Estela. Bred by my friend and next-door neighbour she looked a world-beater in bumpers and was sold to Roger Brookhouse for £60k having won a listed contest at Cheltenham. However, since then she's been massively disappointing over hurdles, being sent off favourite on a regular basis but failing to get her head in front, or deliver on her earlier promise.

I reckon she could be a false favourite again today and I'm looking to oppose her. Justatenner won well last time on handicap debut and would be my selection against the mare.
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Fell at the first!
 
A little unlucky really...not a bad call to take on the fav she certainly wasn't that impressive.
 
Cheltenham 3.00
Kayf Blanco looks as if a step up in trip should suit and wasn't all that far away in the County Hurdle having been outpaced from the last. Cant resist the 14/1 but slightly concerned that he's drifted this morning


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I've taken the 5/1 about Art Mauresque in the 3:35 at Chelt. Voix Deau is favourite based on being less exposed than the others but his form has plenty of holes in it, Wishful Thinking will do well to win off 165 at the age of 13, Tenor Nivernais would have had a chance but the ground appears to have gone against him and he's crept up the weights for running decent races (on his favoured winter ground) without winning, Next Sensation seems to have completely fell out of love with the game and while Johns Spirit appears well handicapped and has his more favoured surface he's another who is starting to accumulate more letters than numbers next his name.

Splash Of Ginge is interesting, as having ran well enough here on his first chase start of the season in the Paddy Power Gold Cup from a 12lb higher mark, he subsequently faced a tall order in his next three races (Hennessy, Peter Marsh & Denman chase) and was then never likely to get home in the 4 miler given his style of running. In summary he's tumbled down the weights to a mark 8lb lower than his last winning one, here just over 12 months ago and should outrun his 10/1 price.

but Art Mauresque has shown he much prefers a sound surface, is likely to be more suited to the small field than he was at the festival, is still, like the favourite young enough and lightly raced enough to expect improvement and you can bet your bottom dollar that Nicholls will have aimed something at this fairly valuable sans-Mullins prize that he feels gives him his best chance of winning it.
 
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Notice that Kevin Morgan entered 3 at Kempton tonight, has taken the 1st one out but i quite like the look of his other two Makhfar and Mezmaar(who did us a nice favour 2 outings ago), both ex Hamdam Al Maktoum horses, think both hold EW chances.
Makhfar has gradually been improving and think is on a mark where he can get competative(this race doesn't look that great) and Mezmaar is upped in distance after getting outpaced over 6fs lto. Would settle for one winner or both placing.
 
Long House Hall (4.10) has been raised just 3lb for his 2nd in the Coral Cup. which should be more than offset by the step up in trip.
Can't see the current 3/1 lasting much longer.
 
Generally 5/2 now with bits of 11/4 available and 3/1 with Stan James who'll probably lay 50p. Very short for a 21 runner handicap but he does look a notch or two above these


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Toboggans Fire - 3.45 Ripon

I put this in my notebook after it won without the race being run to suit last time. Today four of his opponents led in their previous race, so hopefully a strong pace which will be to his liking. Fancy prices gone but 9/2 still there if you're quick. I fancy this one today.
 
I thought I was done with the jumps after Aintree but Twister has put one of my trackers in at Chelters today.
Goodbye Dancer either side of a below par effort at Exeter against the AB winner ran well at Haydock and Kempton, travelling really well at the former venue on deep ground that is not his optimum and placing in the latter. For me ridden too far out the back. He's hard to win with but 16s is overs.
 
Ivan Grozny (3.00) won as he liked last week, and should have taken little out of himself to prevent a repeat performance today. 5/1 for a horse officially 11lbs well-in is not to be sniffed at.
 
I've opposed him with John Constable. You have to ignore his County run, but I'm convinced he's well ahead of the handicapper, and a flat two miles on this ground will see him in his best light. Ivan Grozny clearly the danger though.

Others bets today include Always On The Run and Two Taffs, plus the treble with JC.

I've had a sizeable ew bet on Vicente in the Scottish National, with ew savers on Goodtoknow, Ballyculla, and Tour des Champs, and I've combined them in the exactas and trifectas.
 
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Ayr 4:45 Eshtiaal 7/1 a horse I've been waiting on for a long time and has a stone in hand imo.
If he handles the ground he wins. More than happy to take 7/1 to find out.
 
I'm surprised they're running him given all the rain. I thought they'd pull him and wait for some of the valuable summer prizes. Presumably the ground isn't too bad. Either that or they think he'll go on it.
 
Well done Vicente backers. Has PFN pulled it out of the bag again?


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