What are you backing Today?

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The sliding WFA scale in NH is huge for three year olds this time of year.

For example if a 3yo was running against horses 5 and older over 3 miles+ in September they'd be getting 20lb. Run the same race as early as May and it'd be 24lb :blink:
 
Serves me right for such shabby and lazy (i.e. none!) research, Lee. :cool:

Apologies to Ivan who followed me in.
 
I've seen less research pay off Grass. Was at Donny at good while back with a mate and his big gambling but long-sighted old man. The old man backed a big priced winner of a race I can't vividly recall but when we asked him how he'd picked it he said because it had won it's last two races.

The 11 he was referring to was actually a U
 
PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.10 Lingfield-Ninety Years Young @ 5-1 [Ladbrokes]
1.40 Lingfield-Manson @ 9-1 [William Hill]
2.00 Catterick-Ueueteotl @ 9-1 [Boylesports]
2.50 Ffos Las-Southport @ 10-3 [Boylesports]
3.20 Ffos Las-Copper Birch @ 5-2 [Race Bets]
3.40 Lingfield-Dltripleseven @ 11-4 [Bet 365]:)
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Loss of 2.25pts
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.05 Leicester-London Prize @ 13-8 [Bet 365]
1.55 Market Rasen-Calin Du Brizais @ 4-1 [Coral]
2.45 Wincanton-Tikkapick @ 2-1 [Bet 365]
3.10 Leicester-Captain McGinley @ 7-2 [Paddy Power]
 
Nice one PB, going well.
2 seconds for me yesterday, one very close.
Poor stuff today, I think i'll leave it for now.
 
wilsonl said:
I've seen less research pay off Grass. Was at Donny at good while back with a mate and his big gambling but long-sighted old man. The old man backed a big priced winner of a race I can't vividly recall but when we asked him how he'd picked it he said because it had won it's last two races.

The 11 he was referring to was actually a U
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:lol:
 
Kauto Abu said:
I think Brelade in the 1st at Navan is quite interesting and possibly overpriced at 12/1. On his bumper form he is bang there with Meade's decent novice Moulin A Vent, twice in fact. The first time when 4th in the Goffs Land Rover Champion Bumper just 7L shy of Jenkins & a neck behind MAV. The 8th in that race, Hardline, has gone on to win since and holds a G1 Royal Bond Entry next Weekend.

He finished 2nd to Moulin A Vent again at Galway in October, again by the minimum distance and pulling miles clear of 3rd before going on to win his last bumper start giving weight to a De Bromhead Giggi horse.

Moulin a Vent has advertised those form lines well since. He was a very close second to Monbeg Notorious on hurdling debut and he lines up in a G3 today before winning his maiden. That maiden had the Mullins hype horse Senewalk finish 6th.

Obviously Jenkins good win at Newbury over two well touted horses on Friday shines more favourable light on that bumper form.

He seems versatile ground wise and I'm sure coming from Elliott's yard he'll have been well schooled. He generally races prominently so he should avoid the carnage of 30 novices in behind bunny hopping their way around! He has also performed well at stiff tracks like Galway and Nass. I've had an ew bet at 12/1 and I'm hoping he'll put up a bold showing.


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In line with the above form line I've had a little nibble on Hardline in the 1.20 Thurles. He opened 5/2 with B365 last night which I was pleasantly surprised with but is now generally a 7/4 shot. Unlike Brelade's race last Sunday, taking on a 1/3 Mullins hot shot who clearly needs a trip, I'm sure this Mullins fav wont lack for speed. Riven Light is an ex French flat bred horse with potential. He'll certainly know his job and is obviously held in high regard. He is quoted in ante post betting for the festival.

However Hardline demonstrated he was no slouch over C&D last time when he had a well fancied Meade bumper horse in trouble turning into the home straight. Elliott is red hot right now & he'll be schooled within an inch of his life!! Again I'm hoping he can assist in turning over another odds on Mullins horse.



Edit. Hardline falls at the last when holding every chance. Pity, he was going well.

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PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

1.05 Leicester-London Prize @ 13-8 [Bet 365]:)
1.55 Market Rasen-Calin Du Brizais @ 4-1 [Coral]
2.45 Wincanton-Tikkapick @ 2-1 [Bet 365] non runner
3.10 Leicester-Captain McGinley @ 7-2 [Paddy Power]
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Loss of 0.38pt
 
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

12.20 Exeter-Samson @ 9-4 [Bet 365]
12.40 Sandown-More Bucks @ 15-8 [Boylesports]
12.55 Exeter-Wishing And Hoping @ 4-1 [Bet 365]
1.30 Exeter-Dancing Shadow @ 8-1 [Ladbrokes]
1.40 Sedgefield-Spiculas @ 5-2 [Ladbrokes]
2.25 Sandown-Messire Des Obeaux @ 11-4 [Bet 365]
2.40 Exeter-Wistari Rocks @ 5-2 [Bet 365]
3.00 Sandown-Red Devil Star @ 11-4 [Skybet]
3.25 Sedgefield-Bellamy @ 7-4 [Ladbrokes]
3.35 Sandown-Major Mac @ 9-2 [Bet 365]
 
PlaceBacker said:
My bets [1pt win on each @ BOG]

12.20 Exeter-Samson @ 9-4 [Bet 365]Ab
12.40 Sandown-More Bucks @ 15-8 [Boylesports] :) @ 3-1
12.55 Exeter-Wishing And Hoping @ 4-1 [Bet 365]Ab
1.30 Exeter-Dancing Shadow @ 8-1 [Ladbrokes]Ab
1.40 Sedgefield-Spiculas @ 5-2 [Ladbrokes]
2.25 Sandown-Messire Des Obeaux @ 11-4 [Bet 365]:)
2.40 Exeter-Wistari Rocks @ 5-2 [Bet 365] Ab
3.00 Sandown-Red Devil Star @ 11-4 [Skybet]
3.25 Sedgefield-Bellamy @ 7-4 [Ladbrokes]
3.35 Sandown-Major Mac @ 9-2 [Bet 365]
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Profit of 1.75pts
 
My bets [1pt win on each ]

12.30 Aintree-The Fresh Prince @ 6-1 [Betfair Sports]
12.35 Chepstow-The Bay Oak @ 9-2 [Bet 365]
1.05 Chepstow-Sykes @ 6-1 [Bet 365]
1.20 Sandown-Some Kinda Lama @ 15-2 [Bet Victor]
1.45 Wetherby-Two Smokin Barrels @ 4-1 [Boylesports]
2.20 Wetherby-Boite @ 11-4 [Bet 365]
2.25 Sandown-Consul De Thaix @ 5-1 [Bet 365]
2.40 Aintree-Cocktails At Dawn @ 17-2 [32 Red]
3.20 Chepstow-Lamb Or Cod @ 7-1 [Stan James]
 
I'm hoping Nicholls has a good day because he's got a couple of overpriced ones out. Le Mercurey will be suited by track and ground in the listed chace at Aintree and whilst the trip is a slight concern he ran well enough in the Reynoldstown on soft ground. He re-opposes Minella Rocco on 7lb better terms. I also like Zubayr in the listed handicap hurdle at Sandown. Was in the process of running a nice race in the Elite before coming down 2 out and the oppo today doesn't look all that. 6/1 seems fair.
 
Having my conkers on Un De Sceaux who should be near enough odds on. Good luck all
 
Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher.

I was at Aintree for the national, and i religiously back a 100/1 shot, this turned out to be this horse. It absouloutely breezed round be course and its jumping was excellent. With 3 out it was well in contention and unfortunately I think the bog pit ground and distance took its toll.

The fences don't bother the horse, the ground should be a little better, and it's a drop back in distance. Currently 9/1, I was on it quite a bit Anti Post with Betfred at 20/1. Suprised to see it so short with some of the horses in the race, but as a 7YO I think this horse has a very bright future.
 
1.35 - Aintree:
Vieux Lion Rouge. 1.5 pts win. Available at 11/1.
Saint Are. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 18/1. (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
There are a plethora of front runners or horses that like to race prominently so there's likely to be an overly strong pace. That could lead to a few casualties and, although experience of these fences is not as important as it used to be, it's certainly not a disadvantage. Vieux Lion Rouge was eventually well beaten in the Grand National on his only encounter with these obstacles but he took to them well and looked to beaten on stamina grounds. This is his first start since but he has a history of going well fresh so it needn't be seen as a negative. He may prefer conditions softer but he has won on good ground and all nine of his victories have come under today's jockey. He travels well in his races and that could be important if, as looks very likely, there is a generous gallop. Saint Are loves these fences but has found the ground against him the last two times he has raced here. He was third in this race on G/S ground in 2014 and followed that by finishing second in the Grand national under similar conditions. He is only a pound above his last (and highest) winning mark and his two outings this season have suggested he is working his way back to peak form.

2.15 - Chepstow - Laser Hawk. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
Laser Hawk disappointed when we supported him last time out and it may be folly to keep on hoping that the horse who produced two good efforts last season will suddenly surface. However, his race was effectively over when he stumbled badly at the fourth last here last time and he may be worth another chance. That took his tally to just twp completed efforts from six starts over fences but he is now 15 pounds below the mark from which he was an eye-catching third to the ill-fated Arzal on his reappearance at Newbury last November. A mark of 118 could see him seriously competitive if he puts in a clear round and his rider's seven pound claim eases his burden even further. Jockey bookings suggest Tornado In Milan is the stable first choice but it's doubtful there is a better handicapped horse in the field if Laser Hawk were to come back into form. He is versatile regarding ground conditions and has experience of this track which is never a bad thing. The yard have hit for with a vengeance and they have a profitable 17% strike rate here.

3.15 - Aintree - Vintage Vinnie. 1 pt e/w. Available at 11/1.

3.20 - Chepstow - Spookydooky. 1 pt e/w. Available at 11/1.

3.30 - Sandown - Morney Wing. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1.
 
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1.05 Chepstow
Interesting that Dickie goes here and not to either of the higher profile meetings at Aintree or Sandown and Sykes may be his best chance of a winner for his boss. 5/1 looks fair


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Double J said:
Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher.

I was at Aintree for the national, and i religiously back a 100/1 shot, this turned out to be this horse. It absouloutely breezed round be course and its jumping was excellent. With 3 out it was well in contention and unfortunately I think the bog pit ground and distance took its toll.

The fences don't bother the horse, the ground should be a little better, and it's a drop back in distance. Currently 9/1, I was on it quite a bit Anti Post with Betfred at 20/1. Suprised to see it so short with some of the horses in the race, but as a 7YO I think this horse has a very bright future.
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The handicapper has been more than fair by dropping him 4lb. I'm with you and Ricko 100 percent, everything looks right for a big run. Good luck lads.
 
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